Final Exam Flashcards
Describe Classical Economics
Many of the forefathers of economics (i.e. Adam Smith) acknowledged the important role that psychological principles play in human behavior.
It departed from psychology because they wanted a more exact science and also because psychology was just in its early stages (late 19th Century)
What happened during the era of Neoclassical Economics
There was a departure from the young science of psychology in the turn of the 20th century
Describe Neo-Classical Economics
- Took place in the turn of the 20th Century, departure from the young science of psychology. Descriptive mathematical models replaced psychology in economic theories.
Describe 4 components describing people from a standard economics
People are…
- Perfectly ration
- Selfish (what we gain out of each situation)
- Utility maximizes
- Have limited cognitive capacity
Define Heuristics
Simple Rules of Thumb
Heuristics are influenced by irrelevant info
Decisions are biased (50% of managerial decisions fail, Errors do not equal biases)
Relying on heuristics and biases lead us to…
To make mistakes, because heuristics can be influenced by irrelevant info i.e. decisions are biased. (Biases also cannot be unseen and are likely to be repeated)
Describe the Heuristics and Biases Approach (Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman)
It states our world is too complex (too much info, not enough processing powers), people employe heuristics to evaluate info. These rules help us make sense of our complex environment, fast and effortlessly which can lead to why we employ stereotypes.
How is Behavioral Economics different than Standard Economics?
While its similar, behavioral economics is w/ out the assumption that people are rational.
When making a policy, Ariely says we should consider human behavior.
It’s descriptive, not prescriptive. Descriptive models remove the assumption of rationality, is experimental, and tries determine what factors determine human behavior.
Describe the: (Classical Economics) Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and its 4 axioms
- In decisions under risk (uncertain outcomes), each alternative has a subjective utility. (Subjective evaluation of the alternatives)
- Normative Model of Rational Choice
- Descriptive Model of Economic Behavior
- Assumption: Rational people would want to obey the axioms of the model, and most people actually do (most of the time)
- 4 Axioms:
1. Completeness (people have well-defined preferences and can always decide btwn any two alternatives)
2. Transitivity: Preferences are consistent
3. Continuity: Adding a third option could (give a certain p) undermine its appeal
4. Independence: Two options mixed w/ a 3rd, one maintain the initial preferences
Describe Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky)
- Holds that prospects (outcomes) are considered in terms of gains and losses, relative to a reference point (the current states). We don’t evaluate outcomes objectively, rather according to our current state.
- it’s an alternative to EUT (which is logical based)
- Prospect theory came to present an empirical approach to devision making, focuses on value over utility. Deals w/ decision weight rather than probability.
What are the two phases of the Prospect Theory?
Editing & Evaluation
Describe the Editing + Evaluation Phases of the Prospect Theory
We make a preliminary analysis of the possible prospects to simplify things to help us make a decision
A. Coding (perceiving the prospects by combining probabilities associated with identical outcomes)
B. Combination: Simplifying the prospect by combining probabilities associated w/ identical outcomes
C. Segregation - separating risky vs. safe
D. Simplification - rounding outcomes and probabilities
E. Dominance - searching for dominant alternatives
Evaluation Phases selecting the prospect w/ the (subjective) highest value
Name the 6 behavioral regularities.
- Certainty Effect
- Reflection Effect
- Isolation Effect
- Framing Effect
- Overweight Effect
- Loss Aversion
Describe the Reflection Effect
Tendency for a mirror image preference btwn positive and negative prospects.
The reflection of prospects around 0 reverses the preferences.
Example problem:
Alternative A: $3000 for sure (80% of people selected this), vs. Alternative B: $4000 for 80%, otherwise.
Mirror image of that situation:
Alternative C: -$3,000 for sure vs. Alternative D -$4,000, 80% ($0 otherwise - 92% of couples chose this).
Describe the Endowment Effect (Richard Thaler)
- Ownership increases utility
- People value goods more once we own them
- Selling a mug for twice its worth because people value the item and the loss
What are the three basic Heuristics?
- Representativeness
- Availability
- Anchoring & Adjustment
Describe Representativeness (Heuristics)
A. Used when making judgements about probability of events
B. Work under the rule the more of an object X is similar to class Y, the more likely is it that the object belongs to the class
C. The problem - similarity doesn’t always predict probability (i.e. toss a coin 6 times and get heads 5 times)
These all lead us to systematic mistakes.
Describe availability (heuristics)
A. Used when making judgements about frequency of events
B. When things are more frequent, we think about them more.
I.e. plane crash, people become scared so they end up driving more, bringing down plane fares and spiking gas prices.פ
Describe Anchoring + Adjustments (Heuristics)
This iPad should cost $999, but it’s going to be selling it for $499 instead - Initial value anchor and adjusts
- used when making estimations
Problem: initial value are not always relevant, adjustments are not sufficient.
What are three biases in organizations?
- Overconfidence
- Affect Heuristic
- Inattentional Blindness
Describe overconfidence and the three types.
Unrealistic evaluation of one’s own abilities.
- Overestimation of odds and chances
- Better than avg. - we are better than we actually are
- Over-evaluation of knowledge/abilities
Describe Affect Heuristics
- Feelings & emotions effect our decisions (Positive + negative responses)
B. Automatic
C. Not always conscious
D. Example: Would you choose to endorse, an airport safety protocol that is expected to save 150 lives, or a protocol that will save a high percentage of a population of 150 people under risk? || the higher the percentage the more likely people will want to support that because the % evaluation gives a reference point to comparison, which in turn makes us feel better
Describe Inattentional Blindness
A. Inability to see things that are just in front of us
B. Problem of attention, not perception
C. Not related to abilities (memory, cognition, expertise)
D. Radiologists only seeing what they are looking for, now what else is in the X-ray.
E. Why can’t we see things? Answer: Expectations, we see what we expect to see, the availability heuristic, cognitive load
Describe some example of Financial Motivation
Money, Status, Promotion
What are some examples of motivators the social market?
Reciprocity, pleasure, togetherness
Give an example of a social vs. economic markets
One is more likely to help a friend if they ask for freely, because that’s a social matter, but if they offer you a small amount of money, you are less likely because it switches to market norms.
Describe the Faming Effect
Overweighting small probabilities - tendency to subjectively over-evaluate small probabilities. The lower the probability is, the higher we will weigh it subjectively.
Describe Sunk-Cost
- Investing in failed projects
- Example: a lottery after completing the job vs. a lottery before completing his job. (more people are willing to take the chance at the beginning of the day, we have a tendency to consider in our previous decisions for the present/future)
Sunk cost in real life? - Approving a new loan for a client who can’t make payments.
- Example: a lottery after completing the job vs. a lottery before completing his job. (more people are willing to take the chance at the beginning of the day, we have a tendency to consider in our previous decisions for the present/future)
How do you improve a sunk-cost situation
De-Biasing:
- Taking the decision out of the hands of the initial decision maker (i.e. replacing a CEO after a failed venture) - Acknowledging the fact that people can make its mistakes - Encouraging failures - Highlighting the absurdity
What are the 3 types of effect on our decision quality?
Prior Action have no influences (optimism bias): optimistic expectations about the future
Prior Actions have an effect, when they shouldn’t (self-signaling): past behaviors signal to us who we are and what we care about, thus past behaviors guide our present and future behavior.
Non- Actions : inaction inertia (ripple effect of non-action) which describe actions we did not take, influence our decisions In the future.
Describe Cognitive Dissonance
When beliefs/values and actions contradict, there is a psychological tension to reduce tension, we must change either values or behavior.
Name the phases of the rational model
Defining a problem Setting choice criteria and weights Defining alternatives Evaluating alternatives (based on criteria) Making a decision
Describe Bounded Rationality (Herbert Simon) - 1955
Humans are limited in their cognitive abilities (memory, perception, processing)
Under these limitations, people are rational:
- simplified thinking rules
- satisficing
Name the phases of the bounded rationality model and what’s the different w/ the rational model
- Defining a problem
- Setting a criteria
- Defining ONE alternative
- Evaluating alternative
- Making a decision
It’s limiting the possibilities of which to choose from in order to make the best possible decision.
Describe the Certainty Effect
A tendency to overweight outcomes that are considered certain relative to probable outcomes