Final Exam Flashcards
Define Efficient Technical Analysis
The search for recurrent and predictable patterns in stock prices
Define Efficient Fundamental Analysis
Analysis of 1. quality of management 2. balance sheet 3. patents held 4. earnings forecast 5. accounting practices 6.dividend announcements 7.interest rates to arrive at a proper stock price
Weak Form 3
Stock prices already reflect all info found by examining the market trading data including
1. historical prices
2. trading volume
3. an short interest
(Ex. Random walk and Trading rules/ Technical analysis)
Semi Strong Form 7
all public information on the firm is reflected in the stock price including:
- past price
- fundamental analysis
Strong Form
Stock prices reflect private information and insider information
Efficient Market Hypothesis
the notion that stocks already reflect all available information (3 forms)
4 Types of Technical Analysis
- Trend Extrapolation (filter rules, resistance points)
- Serial Correlation
- Moving Averages
- Indicators (confidence index, put/call ratio)
Reason Arbitrage May Not Happen (6)
- Fundamental Risk
- Implementation Costs (restrictions on short sales/ transaction costs)
- Model Risk (bad model)
- Siamese Twin companies (fundamental risk)
- Equity Carve Outs (limited short sales)
- Closed End Funds ( rational return expectations)
Define CAPM
Provides us with a measure of an assets risk and its expected return and attempts to provide the equilibrium expected return for a risky asset
(gives benchmark rate of return to compare investments
3 Types of Anomalies of EMH
- Small Firm Effect (January)
- Book to Market Ratios (powerful predictor of returns)
- Reversals (due to overreaction)
2 Small Firm Effects (January)
- the neglected firm effect
2. the liquidity effect
Behavioral Finance says (2)
- What if investors don’t behave rationally
2. The people factor matters`
Information Processing Problems (4)
is the inability to correctly forecast due to
- Forecasting Errors
- Sampling Issues (representativeness)
- Conservatism (too slow to update belief)
- Overconfidence
Decision Making Limitations (4)
- Framing
- Mental Accounting
- Regret Avoidance
- Prospect Theory
Framing
how choices are presented
Mental Accounting
A type of framing when people segregate decisions
Prospect Theory
Rational Risk Adverse ( utility increases with wealth)
Preferred Stock
Valued as a perpetuity and uses zero growth model
Sustainable Growth Rate
maximum growth a firm can sustain without expanding financial leverage
Plowback Ratio
the fraction of earnings reinvested in firm
Plowback=1- dividend payout ratio
Common Size Analysis
restatement of financial statement information in a standardized form
Horizontal Common Size Analysis
Uses account amounts in a specific year as base year. Useful to compare growth of different accounts over time
Vertical Common Size Analysis
Uses aggregate value for a given year as base
Balance sheet: each account/ Total assets
Income Statement: Each account/ sales or revenue
DuPont Formula
uses relationships among financial statement accounts to decompose a return into components
5 parts of ROE in DoPont Formula
- tax burden
- interest burden
- margin
- turnover
- leverage
Trailing P/E
Last EPS
Leading P/E
Forecasted EPS
DDM
a formula stating that the intrinsic value of a firm is the PV of all expected further dividends
FCF
Firm level discounted cash flow
can be used for firm or the equity
Residual Income Valuation
EVA and MVA
Activity Ratios
effectiveness in putting its asset investment to use
Liquidity Ratios
Ability to meet short term and immediate obligations