Final exam Flashcards
Supply chain risks derive from different flows:
Material flows
Financial flows
Information flows
Material flows
▪ Supply
▪ Demand
▪ Production
Supply chains are subject to macro-risks
o Natural risks
o Law and Cultural risks
Supply chain risks (image)
Risks can be classified in two ways from the perspective of
impact severity and frequency
These risks can be classified in two ways from the perspective of impact severity and frequency
Operational risks
Disruption risks
Operational risks
(a.k.a. low-impact, high frequency) → they cause the bullwhip effect
Disruption risks
(a.k.a. high-impact, low-frequency) → they cause the ripple effect
Operational risks and distribution risks (image)
Operational risks are recurrent risks that come
from within the supply chain itself
Operational risks are recurrent risks that come from within the supply
chain itself
- Related to business processes (uncertainty of supply and demand)
- Often involve the bullwhip effect
- Impact operational parameters (e.g. lead time and inventory)
- Require time-efficient coordination to balance demand and supply
- Prevention steps: improving flow of information along the value chain
bullwhip effect
The bullwhip effect occurs when small fluctuations in retail demand cause fluctuations in wholesale, distributor and manufacturer demand, resulting in inefficiency and disorganization throughout the supply chain.
„Bullwhip“ efektas atsiranda, kai nedideli mažmeninės paklausos svyravimai sukelia didmeninės prekybos, platintojų ir gamintojų paklausos svyravimus, dėl kurių visoje tiekimo grandinėje atsiranda neefektyvumas ir netvarka.
BULLWHIP EFFECT (image)
As a result of the bullwhip effect:
Higher manufacturing costs
Higher inventory costs
Higher replenishment lead times
Higher transportation costs
Higher labor costs for shipping and receiving
Lower level of product availability
Lower profitability
Worse relationships across the supply chain
Results of bullwhip effect in an image
There are four main factors contributing to the increase in variability (i.e. bullwhip effect):
- Demand forecasting
- Lead time
- Batch ordering
- Price fluctuations
RECAP on reasons for batch orders:
o Minimize sum holding and ordering costs (EOQ)
o Leveraging discounts (transportation discounts to exploit FTL policy)
Variance amplification ratio
How to measure the bullwhip effect – example
How to measure the bullwhip effect – effect of Forecasting and Lead Time
Disruptive risks are
exceptional risks (rare occurrence and high performance impact)
ripple effect
Ripple effect describes the impact of a disruption propagation on supply chain performance and disruption-based scope of changes in supply chain structural design and planning parameters.
Disruptions have consequences in terms of
- Loss of productivity
- Decrease in customer service
- Loss of revenue
Ripple effect vs. Bullwhip effect
To be resilient, a supply chain needs to possess redundancies:
o Material inventory (risk mitigation inventory)
o Capacity buffers
o Backup facilities
Protect SC against perturbation impacts based on certain reserves →
Supply chain robustness
Amplify the fork variety of SC paths to react quickly and flexibly to changes →
Supply chain flexibility
There are many ways to classify inventories →
one often-used classification is related to the flow of
materials into, through, and out of a manufacturing
organization
Inventory categories:
Raw materials
Work-in-process
Finished goods
Distribution inventories
Maintenance, repair, and operating supplies (MROs)
Raw materials →
purchased items not entered the production process
Work-in-process (WIP) →
raw materials entered the manufacturing process and being worked on or waiting to be worked on
Finished goods →
finished products of the production process ready to be sold as completed items
Distribution inventories →
finished goods located in the distribution system
Maintenance, repair, and operating supplies (MROs) →
items used in production that do not become part of the product (e.g., spare parts)
Based on this, inventories can be classified according to the function they perform
Anticipation inventory
Fluctuation inventory (safety stock)
Lot-size inventory (or cycle stock)
Transportation inventory
Hedge inventory
Maintenance, Repair, and Operating inventory
Anticipation inventory
▪ It is built up in anticipation of future demand (e.g. stock build-up
to fulfil peak season demand)
Fluctuation inventory (safety stock)
▪ It is held to cover random unpredictable fluctuations in supply and demand or lead time
▪ Safety stock is carried to protect against this possibility → its purpose is to prevent disruptions in manufacturing or deliveries to customers
Lot-size inventory (or cycle stock)
▪ It relates to items purchased or manufactured in quantities greater than needed immediately → this is to take advantage of quantity discounts, to reduce shipping, setup costs, …
Transportation inventory
▪ It exists because of the time needed to move goods from one location to another (e.g., from a plant to a distribution center)
Hedge inventory
▪ It is related to the products traded on a worldwide market