Final Flashcards
What is Olson’s roving bandit?
Steal everything from a target once. Narrow interest
What is a narrow interest?
Leaving a target ruined
What is Olson’s stationary bandit?
Steal fractionally from targets regularly over time. Encompassing interest. He has to care about how well everyone in his territory is doing, so he can sustain his taking of wealth
What is an encompassing interest?
Keep targets productive
What is the logic of encompassing interests?
The more your society produces, the more wealth you can extract from it in the long term. The more public goods you provide, the more your society will produce
How do you increase a states’ encompassing interest?
Monopoly on taxation/theft and a long time horizon
What happens as a monopoly on taxation declines?
Rival bandits (with no encompassing interest) will plunder, leaving nothing
What is a long time horizon for bandits?
Expectation of remaining in power. Shortened by fear of loss of power: coup/revolution/assassination
Why is hereditary succession best for long time horizon?
Legitimacy of own rule (fewer challenges), concern for successor (own kin), and concern for historical legacy
Why are poorly institutionalized regimes the worst for time horizon?
Leaders have short time horizon. Plunder, deposit in foreign accounts, and make a quick exit when in danger. Staying in power in the short term requires bribery of rival elites, not public goods spending
What is a principal?
An actor who is able both to grand authority and remind it. The government.
What is an agent?
Recipient of a grant of authority. Bureaucrats.
What happens in centralized predation?
Less spending on public goods than no predation
What happens in decentralized predation?
No spending on public goods because of predation
What are the incentives of a stationary bandit under predation?
They have an incentive to centralize predation and have less corruption at the lower level
What is rent?
Income from non-produced sources. Landlords, natural resource exploits, extortion/bribery, legal privilege
What is a patron?
Father-like protector/provider
What is a client?
Dependent of patron
What is clientelism?
Transactions between patrons and clients whereby material favors are offered in return for political support. Loyalty expected.
What is patrimonialism?
A form of government based on rulers’ family-households. Patron-client relations. Can replicate fractal. Assign land and legal rights to dependents.
What are the two forms of patrimonialism?
Feudalism and prebendalism
What is feudalism?
Ruler grants revenue generating land to vassal in exchange for military service. Peasants owe labor and a share of production to their lord, ostensibly for military protection (and protection from their lord)
What is prebendalism?
Ruler grants revenue generating office to client in exchange for political support and/or revenue. Officeholders seek rents for themselves, kin, and constituents. Difference of office vs. land
What is rational legal authority?
The opposite of patrimonialism. Impersonal, rule-bound, with superior-subordinate relationships. Hierarchy is defined by rules, not persona; loyalty. Promotion based on technical competence. Separation between law-making and administration. Changes in rules come from outside the bureaucracy, not the bureaucrats themselves. Bureaucrats are insulated from conflicts of interest and lack discretion in applying laws
What is neopatrimonialism?
Hybrid between patrimonialism and rational-legal authority. System is formally constructed as rational legal, not household. Informal patrimonial relationship pervade the rational-legal system
What are the implications of rational-legal authority?
Rational-legal authority often underpins strong states, government policy will be carried out, if procedure allows
What are the implications of patrimonial and neopatrimonial systems?
They often underpin weak states, because you can’t be confident policy will be executed by bureaucrats. They impede economic reforms
What is the low level equilibrium trap?
The very fact that a state is neopatrimonial impedes the reforms you’d like to impose to get to the rational legal authority
How does a bigger state lead for more cronyism?
Developmental states create large bureaucracies to regulate businesses. Corrupt bureaucrats sell regulatory favor to business
How does more cronyism lead to bigger states?
Patrons create prebends for clients (i.e. jobs), prebends with more regulatory authority are more valuable to clients, so states expand regulatory authority
Why do PCFs pay off bureaucrats?
Access to opportunities, advantages over competitors, exclude competitors, gain monopoly profits, avoid market exclusion, and avoid persecution
Why, under cronyism, is there not as much innovation?
Firms must invest in rent-seeking rather than innovations, leading to economic stagnation
Why do dictator’s engage in cronyism?
Crony relations generate rents that help sustain ruling coalition. Exclusion is often part of a deliberate strategy to exclude independent businesses who could potentially convert their economic strength into political power
Who was Mubarak?
Authoritarian ruler of Egypt from 1981-2011
What is SCAF?
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces- Egyptian military rulers in 2011, transitioned to a democracy
Who was Mursi?
Democratically elected leader of Egypt from 2012-2013. Affiliated with the Islamist, Muslim Brotherhood. Deposed in a coup
Who is Sisi?
After SCAF coup, authoritarian ruler. Has ruled since 2013
What are external rents that come into Egypt?
Oil and gas, Suez Canal, tourism, loans from the IMF, foreign aid from the US since peace with Israel in 1978, foreign aid from the Gulf monarchies since 2013 coup (they do not like the Muslim Brotherhood)
What are Egypt’s problems?
Bloated bureaucracy, but civil servants are critical constituency; Military Inc: military has a privileged role in economy, rentiers; US cares more about Islamism than democracy (hasn’t cut off aid)
What are the implications of Egypt’s position?
Perpetual fiscal crisis, repression of labor and Muslim Brotherhood, short tune horizon for insecure leaders, so little incentive for reform, no taxation, no representation: the more rents a state has access to, the fewer incentives it has to be accountable to its citizens
What is a kleptocracy?
Systematic and widespread extra-legal exploitation of a country for financial gain by ruling elite
What are warlords?
Rulers of states within states. Not traditional, not legitimate. Rule through patronage, depend on outside backing
What are military mafias?
Officers operate illegal businesses
What is civil society?
Voluntary organizations outside the family, market, and state. Includes interest groups, parties, labor union, religious organizations, amateur sporting leagues, gangs (maybe)
What are the functions of civil society?
Disseminate information, watchdog over government, form non-governmental organizations and train leaders, organize mass participation in politics, especially mobilization of protest, and counterbalance to state power: incubator of democracy
What is the principle empirical finding of studying authoritarian and democratic economies?
Rich countries are almost all democratic, poor countries are mostly authoritarian
What are the different theories about causation between democracy and development?
Development leads to democracy (modernization theory), democracy leads to development, democracy and development cause one another, its just a spurious correlation
What are the trajectories of rich countries vs poor countries?
Rich countries stay rich, poor countries vary in trajectory
What do the greatest developmental successes include?
Both democracies and authoritarians
What kind of regimes have the greatest economic disasters?
Authoritarians
What is economic development?
Moving up the value added chain: raw materials -> low tech manufacturing -> high tech manufacturing, and services (so not just getting richer)
What was statism (1950s-70s)?
State needs to take an active role in promoting development
What did statists believe the benefits of authoritarianism?
Overcome political opposition to reform, eliminate institutional veto points, insulate technocrats from societal pressure, and provide economic stability (repress labor unrest and protect private property)
What were the authoritarian exemplars from the 50s-70s?
USSR (50s-60s), Asian tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong)
What was the democratic laggard from the 50s-70s?
India
Why did the consensus on statism change?
New belief that statism and authoritarianism cause corruption, mismanagement, and decline
Why did the Washington Consensus think democracy and capitalism belong together?
They broaden coalitions: invest in human capital and public goods, not rent for elites. They provide rule of law: attack corruption, create accountability. They maintain openness: feedback is needed for course correction, innovation requires freedom
What were authoritarian failures of the 80s?
USSR, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin American debt crisis
What were the democratic exemplars on the 90s?
Eastern Europe
What is the current ideas about democratic and authoritarian development?
No dominant paradigm
Why has there been no dominant paradigm since the 2000s?
Scholars believe development requires a complex convergence of circumstances. No strong relationship between regime type and economic development. There is the China Model: reform within authoritarianism, especially to incentivize exports and upgrading
What was the East Asian Miracle?
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong all transitioned from poor backwaters to advanced industrial economies over the span of 40 years
What is the conventional wisdom of why the East Asian Miracle happened?
They were strong, autonomous states. They did ELI instead of ISI
Why does Doner say the Asian Tigers embraced ELI?
They didn’t start out strong and autonomous, and they only pursued ELI out of necessity
Why do some ruling elites expand their coalition?
Intense conflict between elites, intense social conflict (ethnic, religious), and threat of mass mobilization against the regime
What are the two ways ruling elites sustain broad coalitions through cross-class side payments?
Patronage, which hurts development (typical), and development, which disrupts patronage (unusual).
When will the ruling elite with a broad coalition choose development over patronage?
Broad coalition + severe long term external threat + natural resource scarcity leads to a desperate need to generate long term revenue, which leads them to be willing to risk disruptive reforms that generate long-term growth
How does Taiwan fit into Doner’s theory?
Broad coalition due to social conflict between natives and newcomers, severe long-term threat from China, and resource scarcity
How does South Korea fit into Doner’s theory?
Broad coalition due to fear of domestic communism, severe long-term threat from China and North Korea, and resource scarcity
What hope is there for other countries in Doner’s thesis?
Some have broad coalitions, some resource scarcity, and few severe external threats, all combined leading to a very pessimistic opportunity
Does Doner’s thesis explain China’s reforms?
Broad coalition due to revolutionary origins, no oil, leading to resource scarcity, and a severe external threat from the USSR
What is liberalism?
Limits on government power
What is democracy?
Unlimited power of the people
What is populism?
Illiberal democracy
What are the components of populism?
Charismatic leadership, patronage politics, political polarization (vs. consensus building), assault on institutions (anti-system)
Why do populists assault institutions?
Norm breaking is applauded because the system is corrupt and elitist. Democracy requires norms of respect and cooperation, therefore populism is undemocratic
What is the populist ideology?
Ideology is flexible: thin, has left and right variants, not libertarian or neoliberal, maintain social safety net, suspicious of unfettered capitalism, and nationalists
What is left-wing populism?
A reaction to long-entrenched social inequality, reaction to economic insecurity caused by corruption, modernization, and globalization. Nationalist: anti-MNC and anti-American
What is right wing populism?
Reaction to new values and demographic change, cultural conservatism, reaction to economic insecurity caused by corruption, modernization, and globalization. Nationalist: anti-immigration, protectionist
What is the unsympathetic interpretation of populists?
Populists manipulate people’s insecurities to protect entrenched inequalities
What is the sympathetic interpretation of populists?
Populists respond to legitimate concerns of communities rocked by changes that benefit elites
How does populist undermine democracy?
Populists are outsiders, therefore political amateurs
Populists have a mandate to upend the system, therefore attack elites
Elites are embedded in, and defend themselves, via democratic norms and the rule of law
To overcome elites, populists attack norms and laws
How does populism become authoritarian?
Election of supermajority or unified government, collapse of traditional political system, or autogolpe
How does an election of a supermajority or unified government lead to authoritarianism?
Amend constitution for political advantage, no legislative oversight of executive
How does the collapse of traditional political system lead to authoritarianism?
Establishment politicians are all corrupt, parties disregard majority opinions on key issues, and voters turn to an outsider with authoritarian impulses
How does an autogulpe lead to authoritarianism?
Elected executive seizes powers illegally, often precipitated by executive-legislature impasse
What does Ungar-Sargon believe is the leading paradigm of today?
America is an unabated white-supremacist country, leading to an outright moral panic
What does journalism have to do with the idea that America is a white supremacist country?
It is a displacement exercise from them, instead of experiencing economic guilt about rising inequality and their status among America’s elite.
How can a culture war lead people to abandon questions of economics?
It needs to be waged against a problem that can never be solved
How does the culture war undermine democracy?
Rising income inequality, because of educated cultural elites focusing on identity over class. Rising political inequality, because organizing is now almost entirely done by foundations, nonprofits, universities and media is a part of the clerisy that helps perpetuate the role of the tech oligarchy. Political system entirely devoted to the top 15% of the population, power shifts from the top 7% of liberals and the top 7% of conservatives. One party represents the rich and one party represents the educated, but no one represents the working class
Who is the oligarchy?
The top one-tenth of one percent of wealth: 0.1%. 300,000 people. Bound together by material self interest and political clout, not by social ties
What does Winters and Page say oligarchs rule?
International economic policy, monetary policy, tax policy, and the overall redistributive impact of government policy
What does the median voter theorem say about whether democracy reduces income inequality?
Yes. Poor are many + rich are few + everyone has one vote = politicians win elections by redistributing wealth from rich to poor
What does Winters and Page say about whether democracy reduces income inequality?
No. Lobbying, electoral impact, opinion shaping, constitutional rules. Trade off of property security for the richest in exchange for universal suffrage for unpropertied masses
What do Winters and Page say about the mechanisms that lead to income inequality being a threat to democracy?
Elites overthrow democracy to preserve wealth. Elites resort to illiberal measures to distract from inequality (populism, nationalism, culture wars, identitarianism)
What does Winters and Page say about if oligarchy and democracy are compatible?
Yes. Oligarchy only rules on issues which it has intense, unified preferences. Oligarchy is defined as a exercise of power, not rule.
What is the alternative view on if oligarchy and democracy are compatible?
No. If a dictator only rules on issues which he has intense preferences, he’s still a dictator. People are still free to vote as they choose, so oligarchs can’t get their way without the consent of the people
What is a rentier society?
Money is used to gain political power, and political power is then used to make more money
Are rentier societies and capitalism opposites?
Yes. Capitalism involves private ownership of factors of production and market competition, the competition part making them opposites
What is the rentier society vicious circle?
Market power (via concentration) leads to more profits, which leads to more political influence (via lobbying), which leads to favorable regulation, which leads to more market power
What is the realpolitik paradigm?
Politics based on power, not ideals. Leaders only as deceptive and cruel as the situation requires
What does the realpolitik paradigm imply?
Amorality, pragmatism, ruthlessness, and rationality
What is the career path of a dictator?
Politician, military officer, revolutionary
What does Glad say leads to a person becoming a dictator?
A personality disorder
What are cluster b personality disorders defined by?
Emotional dysregulation, impulsivity, and frequent inter-personal conflicts
What cluster b disorders make up a dictator?
Antisocial personality disorder + narcissistic personality disorder, which Glad calls malignant narcissism
What makes up malignant narcissism?
Aggression, sadism, paranoid delusions, splitting (dichotomizing the world into good and evil elements, projecting his own dark side… onto an external source, transforming the conflict into an external conflict), willingness to take risks
What are the consequences of a dictator with malignant narcissism?
They want to structure the world to support their grandiose claims. Demand for adulation -> adulation increasingly becoming forced and artificial -> adulation becoming dissatisfying
What is the cycle of disintegration?
Insatiable lack of self-esteem -> increasing demands, paranoia -> increasing isolation from friends, reality
Is Putin rational or a madman?
No violent struggles for power, developed a reputation as trustworthy, loyal, doesn’t set up for the explanation that something is deeply wrong with him
What is personalism?
Power is concentrated in a single individual rather than a ruling party or a military elite
What are the pathologies of personalism?
Insulated from the consequences of their actions, they can afford to be more violent and less risk averse. To repress domestic opposition and keep power, they staff their regimes with devotees from the military and the security services who are prone to aggression. Scared and sycophantic underlings who feed them limited, biased self-censored, and overly optimistic information
What is the puzzle of authoritarian decline?
The global rise of democracy means the global decline of authoritarianism since 1800s
What are the three metanarratives of authoritarian decline?
Economic modernization, diffusion of ideas, and regime promotion
What is the basic idea of modernization theory?
Development leads to democracy
What is the chain of industrialization for modernization theory?
Industrialization ->
Urbanization, basic education ->
Secularization, civil society ->
Weakening of traditional authority ->
Transition to modern regime types (democratic, communist, fascist)
What is the chain of post-industrialization for modernization theorists?
Post-industrialization (service economy) ->
Higher education, economic security, free time ->
Individualism, self-expression ->
Demand for right ->
Democracy
Why do modernization theorists say Persian Gulf monarchies are rich, but not democratic?
They never industrialized (first chain)
Why do modernization theorists say Norway has a democracy, even though it has massive natural resource wealth?
Democratized (went through chains) before oil was found
What happened during the 1750s-1800s that is important for modernization theory?
Industrial Revolution starts in England. Spreads to northwest Europe and North America
What happens in the early 1900s that is important for modernization theory?
Japan and southern Europe catch up
What happens in the 1970s-1980s that is important for modernization theory?
Latin America and some other countries catch up
Is economic development political suicide for authoritarians, if modernization theory is correct?
Development to the point of democratization is a long-term concern, most dictators have short term concerns
Performance legitimacy: prosperity contributes to regime stability
Dictator’s policy goals may require revenue and technology, thus development (Doner)
What is the problem with China for the modernization theory?
China is urbanized, industrialized, educated, and secularized, yet they are still authoritarian
What is the criticism of modernization theory that it is right only in the European cultural context?
Western civilization has ancient origins of democracy and the protestant ethic and enlightenment values don’t exist everywhere
What is the criticism of modernization theory that it was once right, but now it is wrong?
Authoritarian learning, new technologies of repression, and new strategies/forms of growth
What is the modernization theorists’ response to criticisms?
Revolutionary regimes are exceptionally durable, modernization theory is right, but China isn’t fully developed yet
What is diffusion?
Spread of ideas across borders, not coerced or incentivized
When does diffusion occur?
In waves after dramatic events, most notably when a great power wins a major war or a central revolution happens
Why does a great power winning a major war lead to diffusion?
Small states emulate its regime type
Why does a central revolution lead to diffusion?
It leads to affiliated revolutions
What did the 20th century authoritarian waves originate with?
Discontent with capitalism and democracy
What does social discontent with democracy and capitalism look like?
Selfish individualism, spiritual vacuity
What does economic discontent with democracy and capitalism look like?
Poverty, income inequality
What does political discontent with democracy and capitalism look like?
Flawed compromises, paralysis
What was the communist central/affiliate revolutions?
Central: Russia (1917-1922)
Affiliate: China (1927-1949)
What was the fascist central/affiliate revolutions?
Central: Italy (1922)
Affiliate: Germany (1933)
When were Enlightenment ideas?
1500s-1700s
What were the English precedents of revolutions?
English Civil War, Glorious Revolution, American Revolution
What was the central revolution for democracy?
The French revolution
What victories of democracies led to them being emulated?
WWI, WWII, and the Cold War
What did Fukuyama say in the End of History?
The basic principles of the liberal democratic state could not be improved upon. All prior contradictions are resolved and all human needs satisfied, no struggle or conflict over large issues. It is not necessary all societies become liberal democracies, but merely an end to ideological pretensions of representing different and higher forms of humanity
What is regime promotion?
The transfer of institutions from one country to another, coerced or incentivized. Colonies, conquests, and clients
Which states have the most success in transferring their institutions?
The greatest of the great powers, ones with international primacy. The UK in the 1700s and 1800s. The US in the 1900s and 2000s
What is genealogy?
A family history
What is a founder?
The first state with a novel trait
What are generations?
Levels of descent from founder
What was the founder of the democracy system?
England/UK
What led to democracy emerging in the UK?
The Agrarian Revolution: 1400s-1600s
The Industrial Revolution: 1700s-1800s
Individual rights, representative government, proto-democracy
What was the first generation of democracies after England?
UK colonies: US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and India
What was the second generation of democracy?
US/UK conquests: Liberation of Western Europe in WWI, WWII; Germany and Japan after WWII (direct occupation)
What was the third generation of democracy?
Western clients: diplomatic influence over allies in moments of regime change, aid conditionalities via EU, IMF, World Bank
How would modernization explain a democratic stagnation, and is it true?
Explanation: global economic stagnation since 2000. But, growth faster from 1998-2018 than in 1978-1998
How would diffusion explain democratic stagnation, and is it true?
Explanation: new ideologies since 2000 or revival of old ideologies since 2000
Truth: sort of. Islamism rising, but strongest among already authoritarian countries, also limited to Islamic world. Populism rising almost everywhere, but the thin ideology. Enthusiasm with democracy is declining, but no obvious alternative and no apparent source of authoritarian diffusion
How does the Global War on Terror explain democratic stagnation, when considering the implications of regime promotion?
Democracy promotion falls in priority, similar to the Cold War. Giving foreign aid to authoritarians (ex: Egypt)
How does US domestic politics explain democratic stagnation, when considering the implications of regime promotion?
Declining public support for an active foreign policy, as a reaction to Iraq and Afghanistan. Protectionism leading to disinterest in expansion of markets via democracy promotion. Trump’s friendliness to authoritarians
How does declining US hegemony explain democratic stagnation, when considering the implications of regime promotion?
Rise of China and the renewed assertiveness of Russia, both authoritarians
Why do some consider that communications technology is no longer liberators?
Tracking individuals is now possible via mobile devices, electronic payments, the internet, surveillance cameras with facial recognition, and AI. Does the survival of democracy require censorship (misinformation) and does censorship threaten the survival of democracy?
