Final Flashcards
What is international security?
The amalgamation of measures taken by states, IOs and other actors that affect the mutual survival and safety including military action and diplomatic agreements
An issue at the core of security is political violence
Describe the typology of political violence
State vs non state
Perpetrator vs target
Target:state perp:state = interstate war
Target:non state perp:state = state repression, genocide, ethnic cleansing
Target:state perp:non state = organized crime, military coup, mass protests, civil war, terrorism, political assassination
Target:non state perp:non state = inter communal violence, political assassination
What are interests and national interests
What actors want to achieve through political action: their preferences over outcomes that might result from their political choices
Interests attributed to the state itself, usually security and power
Rational actor approaches to decision making = assumptions?
Actors are purposive: they behave with the intention of producing a desired result
Actors adopt strategies to obtain desired outcomes given what they believe to be the interests and likely actions of others
Rationality refers to the instrumental process of decision making not the goals or preferences that actors adapt to their estimates of success
What is coercion?
The threat or imposition of costs to get an actor- a state, a leader of state, a terrorist group, a transnational or international organization, a private actor- to do something it does not want to do
cooperation - positive sum
barganing - negative o zero sum
What is compellence
An effort to change the status quo through the threat of force
A compelling threat is used to coerce the target state into making a concession or changing policy
What is deterrence
Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy the fear to attack
An effort to preserve the status quo by threatening the other side with unacceptable costs if it seeks to alter the current relationship
Deterrence by denial
Deterrence by punishment
Rationality
Means perception and communication
Credibility
What is nuclear deterrence theory and what are its 3 elements
Developed between 1952-1966 by political scientists, economists, military strategists, other scientists, mostly at RAND corporation
Driven by Cold War and fears of nuclear Armageddon
1. precarious
2. its devastating
3. mutually assured destruction
What is a solution to deterrence credibility
- Burning bridges and irrevocable commitment
- Introduce illogic and uncertainty
Rebellion and public goods
Rebel groups typically claim public good as their goals like secession, autonomy, democratization, and redistribution appearing to be the most common
What is the rebels dilemma
For rebellions to successfully organize individuals have to participate
Participation is a costly
If the rebellion succeeds everyone should benefit from the system change even those who don’t participate
There is strong incentive to free ride and reap the benefits of others
This makes the rebel organization difficult
How can you overcome the rebels dilemma?
Increase costs of nonparticipation
Change material incentives to participate
Ideology
Rebel institutions or self government introducing hierarchy
How do we get from rebellion to civil conflict
Involves the state and at least one organized and armed non state actor
A contested incompatibility that concerns government and or territory where the use of armed force reaches a certain threshold
Types of conflict and their goals
Territorial
Separatist: non state actor wants to separate a territory to form an independent state
Irredentist: non state actor wants to detach a territory from one country and reunite it with the territory of another country
Governmental
Nonstate actors try to seize control of the government
Types of warfare
Conventional: military technologies between state and non state actors are symmetric. Non Tate actors can directly confront the state
Irregular: asymmetric military capabilities that privilege the state. Non state actors can challenge and harass the state but lack the capacity to confront in a direct and formal way
Symmetric and non conventional: both sides lack advanced military capabilities
What is bargaining theory
It’s about how to divide the object of dispute
There is only win or lose
The existence of a bargaining range implies both players should always have an incentive to locate peaceful settlements that avoid the cost of war
independent of conflict type
neither side is assured victory
What are the 3 solutions to the bargaining puzzle
1 incomplete information
Probability of winning or losing
Costs of fighting
How big is the pie
2 commitment problems
it is future proof?
3 indivisibility
All or nothing
How to avoid war according to bargaining model
Raising the cost
Increasing transparency
Providing outside enforcement of commitments
Dividing apparently indivisible goods
Raising the utility of peace
When do wars end in bargaining model?
Is utility of war is less than of peace
In information asymmetry: war reveals information
Commitment problem: belief that deal will stick
What states fight over
Most are about Territory
National policy
Regime type
Militarized interstate disputes
A set of interactions between or among nations involving
The threat to use force
The display of force
The actual use of military force
Leaders vs national interest
Leaders may have private incentives that diverge from the national interest
Diversionary theory of war: war instigated by a country’s leader in order to distract its population from their domestic strife
democratic peace theory
Pairs of democracies are less likely to fight than other pairs of states
Normative explanations to democratic peace
Democratic norms promote compromise rather than the elimination of opponents
Non democracies exhibit norms in which political conflicts are more likely to be resolved thorough violence and coercion
To guard against exploitation and to ensure their own survival democracies employ non democratic norms in their relations with non democracies
Institutional explanations of democratic peace
Democracies are characterized by institutional constraints
Because wars are costly, wars are generally unpopular among publics
In democracies leaders are generally more reliant on public support than non democracies are
Democracies are less able to bluff because of information and audience costs
Elements of audience costs theory
Domestic political audience has the means and incentives to coordinate to punish the leader
Domestic actors view backing down after having made a threat as worse than conceding without having made a threat in the first place
Outsiders are able to observe the possibility of domestic sanctions from backing down
What is delegation
An act where one person or group called a principal relies on another person or grew up called an agent to act on the principals behalf
Agency loss
Describes the difference between the perfect and actual outcome from delegation. Agency loss occurs from conflicting preferences incomplete information and lack of enforcement mechanisms
Two main problems with principal agent
Adverse selection
Problem: information asymmetry between agent and principal
Solutions: ex ante mechanisms
Screening signaling contract design
Moral hazard/agency slack
Problem: divergent preferences may incentivize the agent to act inappropriately
Solution: ex post mechanisms
Sanctions
What is terrorism
Highly contested
Ineluctably political in aims and motives
Violent or equally important threatens violence
Designed to have far reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target
Conducted by either an organization with an identifiable chain of command or conspiratorial cell structure (whose members wear no uniform or identifying insignia) or by individuals or a small collection of individuals directly influenced motivated or inspired by the ideological aims of examples of s9me existent terrorist movement and or its leaders
Perpetrated by a sub national group or non state entity
Some argue that the target of violence has to be civilians or non combatants while others relax this
Strategy vs tactic
Strategy: high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty and finite resources
Tactic: a conceptual action implemented as one or more specific tasks
Terrorism : attrition
Convince an enemy of one’s power or resolve to demonstrate capacity and resilience
Terrorism : intimidation
Coerce the population by use of force in order to prevent them from siding with the enemy or coerce the population into pressuring the government to concede
Terrorism : provocation
Provoke the government into an excessive reaction in order to demonstrate that the government is evil thereby garnering public support
Terrorism : spoiling
Derail or prevent a peace process that embodies an unfavourable settlement by convincing the target that moderates cannot be trusted
Terrorism : outbidding
Demonstrate real one to one’s own population vis a vis rivaling factions/organizations in order to gain support
What is state repression
deterrence is at the core of repression
The actual or threatened use of physical sanctions against an individual or organization within the territorial jurisdiction of the state for the purpose of imposing a cost on the target as well as deterring specific activities and or beliefs perceived to be challenging to government personal practices or institutions
Excludes broader understandings of violence: structural, economic, social
Focus on physical sanctions of personal interfaith and political rights
Why do states respond coercively
Governments are motivated to remain in power
They are willing to take action to increase their own strength and decrease the threat
It’s just one tool
Selectorate theory
Leaders care about staying in office
Staying in office requires a winning coalition
Winning coalition is a share of the selectorate
Selectorate is a subset of all citizens
In a democracy winning is half the Selectorate
In an autocracy the winning coalition is very small because the Selectorate is very small
Leaders with large winning coalitions are more interested in broad support of the population
Leaders with small winning coalitions are more interested in keeping small circles of elites happy and the rest quiet
Cooptation vs repression
It’s an alternative choice
Intentional extension of benefits in exchange for loyalty
Patronage
Institutions that draw rivals into the regime apparatus
Helps keep enemies close and anticipate and correctly estimate threats
Repression in democracies
Targets: perceived outsiders and minorities are most at risk
Methods: hard to detect methods less visible victims
Accountability: blame shifting
Delegation: outsourcing repression to militias private etc
What is a civilian
Anyone who is not a member of the armed forces or of an organized armed group
What is violence against civilians
Broadly any acts that though the use of force, harm, or damage civilians or civilian targets including lethal as well as non lethal forms of violence
What is genocide
The promotion execution and or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents that are intended to destroy, in whole or part, a communal political, or politicized ethnic group
What is ethnic cleansing
A purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas
Not recognized independent crime under international law
What are mass killings
Defined as the intentional killing of a massive number of non-combatants
A massive number is defined as at least 50,000 intentional deaths over the course of five years or less
One sided violence
Civilians that are deliberately and directly targeted by governments or non state groups
selective vs indiscriminate violence
Selective: targets are chosen on the basis of individualized suspicion
Indiscriminate: targeting is not based on individualized suspicion
What explains violence against civilians in interstate wars
Desperation: in protracted wars, civilian victimization is a tactic that inflicts costs on non-combatants to coerce an armed actor to cease fighting
Conquer and annex: where civilians share nationality of the enemy in areas a belligerent wishes to annex, violence against civilians is intended to crush local subversion and force mass eviction
What are the three warfare strategies in violence against civilians
Draining the sea
Purposive oh employed military strategy to physically disrupt if not eliminate civilian supports if the enemy
Control coercion punishment
Shape civilian behaviour indirectly through violence that encourages denunciations and collaboration from oppressed civilians and deters collaboration with the enemy
Selective violence
Collaboration and denunciation provides information used to selectively target civilians
Controlled areas experience more selective violence
The commanders dilemma
Create a fighting force that is capable of great unhesitatingly violence
Maintain control over the level forms and targeting of violence
Armed group institutions can help align preferences of combatants and commanders
Political education and strong consistent institutions helps explains restraint exercised by armed groups
What is a cyber attack
Deliberate actions to alter disrupt deceive degrade or destroy computer systems or networks or the information and or programs resident in or transiting these systems of networks
Key features of cyber attacks
No direct attack on target: damage caused by attack on computer/information
No physical limitation: one attack can reach multiple targets
Attacks by exploiting vulnerabilities in systems
Use and lose code
A typology of cyber attacks
Availability attacks: aimed at affecting the availability of a network
Confidentiality attacks: attacks aimed at gaining access to networks in order to monitor activities and withdraw information
Data integrity attacks: aimed at gaining access to networks in order to manipulate or sabotage information
3 conventional beliefs about cyber warfare
- Asymmetry
Low entry barrier for weak actors
Offensive capabilities are easy to procure and open source intelligence social media are readily available for all actors
Anonymity can protect weak actors
Advanced industrial eco monies are more online and this have more vulnerabilities - Offensive dominance
Cyber attacks are easier than cyber defence
Few security considerations in the design of the internet
With growing networks offensive capabilities grow faster than defensive capabilities
Attacks will be faster than defence can detect and patch vulnerabilities - Deterrence failure
Nuclear deterrence works because attacks fear counter attacks
Attribution of attacks extremely slow and complex
If attribution is not accurate, assured retaliation will be hard to implement
Prerequisite for successful deterrence: ability to disclose military capabilities
Since cyber attacks build on the targets vulnerability, signalling credible ability of attacks may disclose enough information for the target to neutralize the attack
Cyber operations as subversion
Unlike warfare or diplomacy, subversion relies on exploitation of vulnerabilities
Strength: reliance on secrecy and indirect reliance on the enemy’s systems
For cyber operations to work
1. Identification of vulnerabilities
2. Exploitation without detection
3. Establishment of access and controls without detection
4. Maintain control to achieve outcome
How do information operations act as regime activism
Counter mobilization
Economic performance, nationalism, anti western ideology
Discourse framing
Overwhelming, discrediting, demoralizing, Astro turfing
Preference divulgence
Surveillance, network analysis, opinion polling
Elite coordination
Responsiveness to bolster legitimacy
Toblers first law of geography
Everything is related to everything else but near things are more related than distant things
What is the conflict trap
Conflict begets conflict
The same countries tend to be afflicted over and over again
Many conflicts are directly related to previous conflict in the same location or between the same actors
Galtons problem
Clustering could be due to
Common shock
Because of interdependence (conflict diffusion)
Negative vs positive diffusion
Positive externalities induce strategic substitution relations
- negative interdependence
Negative externalities induce strategic complements
- positive interdependence
What are the mechanisms of diffusion
Competition
- races to top or bottom
Coercion
- dominant actors directly coerce weaker actors
Learning
- adopting policies with beneficial outcomes
Emulation
- norms, social knowledge, social construction
Transnational actors
How could refugees have mechanisms leading to conflict
Direct fighting
- refugee flows may imply the direct importation of combatants arms and ideologies
Indirect support
- rather than fighting openly, refugee populations can provide resources and support to domestic opposition groups or similar ethnicity or political faction
Changing balance of power
- can change ethnic balance
- minority groups may feel that the influx of foreigners further dilutes their strength
Refugees as a threat
- may lose an actual or perceived negative economic externalities
- immigrants compete with locals over scarce resources
Principles of peacekeeping
Consent of the parties
Impartiality
Non use of force except in self defence and defence of the mandate
Generations of peacekeeping
- Non violent
Main tasks: monitoring borders, establishing buffer zones between conflict parties - Included military and or police
Beyond safeguarding: temporary security presence - Permission to use force to defend mandate
Monitor and assist human rights and elections
Training police forces
Demobilization, disarmament, reintegration of combatants
Normative objectives (consent is less important) - Brahimi report
More strategic operations
More resources and staff
Rejection of too small understaffed dysfunctional operations
Why could peace fail
Aggression
Fear
Accident
Exclusion
Why do individuals rebel?
fear - loss of life
oppression
social norms
dissatisfaction with the status quo
relative deprivation of political opportunity
ex post inefficiency of war
in theory they should never go to war, they should always find a peaceful settlement
the process model
defines that war is the product pf escalation. This starts with the context, historical or setting, which may define a conflict of interest, which starts a dispute, which may escalate to a militarised interstate dispute (MID). Threat, then mobilization of forces (display) and then to actually use of force (if death goes beyond 1000 then it’s war)
most interactions do not escalate to war
why delegate?
Delegation allows principals to benefit from expertise and abilities of others
- Efficiency gains associated with specialization
Cost saving device
Delegation avoids direct accountability
In armed conflict, when does the ‘substitution’ argument predict more sexual
violence to be used by combatants?
It occurs when there are no female combatants
what does the traditional view of female presence in combatant groups
that if they are there then the men are less likely to commit acts of sexual violence because of shame
what is the selection argument of female presence in combatant groups
belligerent types of people chose to be in these groups and actively seek out this violence
what is the combatant socialization argument of female presence in combatant groups
regardless, if there is low social cohesion there will be acts committed to raise morale, ties etctetc
explain the strategic subversion dilemma of cyber attacks
speed, intensity, control
what are the 4 recommendations from the brahimi report
primacy of politics
responsive operations
strategic partnerships
field focused and people centered
