Final Flashcards
-Conquests, exemplified by Russia in Crimea and potential actions by China in the South China Sea, pose significant threats to global stability, requiring the United States to reconsider its historical stance of territorial conflicts non-interference.
-Future conflicts between major powers, particularly China and Russia, may involve territorial conquests, with the annexation of Crimea highlighting the resurgence of such actions in Europe and raising concerns about the next potential target.
The Future of Conquest: Fights over small places could spark the next big war (ALTMAN)
Accomplished fact, seizing a disputed piece of territory before the other side can react
Fait Accompli
Small deployments, not large enough to shift the local balance of forces, but meant to deter future aggression, they “die heroically”
Tripwire forces
-The global community can use sanctions and international courts to impose costs on Russia for its blatant and illegal aggression.
-Such a response will require cooperation and sacrifices, but it is well worth the effort. At stake is one of the bedrock principles of international law: the territorial integrity of states.”
The Return of Conquest Why the Future of Global Order Hinges on Ukraine (Fazal)
Condition of mutual deterrence, in which neither side would contemplate an attack on the other, forcing them to resolve their dispute in other ways.
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)?
The action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences
Deterrence
A standard or pattern, especially of social behavior, that is typical or expected of a group.
Norms
Is when the increase in one state’s security (such as increasing its military strength) leads other states to fear for their own security
Security Dilemma
-I have come to believe that this language both reflects and shapes the nature of the American nuclear strategic project; that it plays a central role in allowing defense intellectuals to think and act as they do.
-Calm, detached language. Sex, God, snappy acronyms, domestic language
-Their languages shapes reality.
Sex and Death in the Rational World of Defense Intellectuals (COHN)
-There has been no use of nuclear weapons since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Tannenwald argues that this was not inevitable, but that a tradition of non-use of nuclear weapons has grown up, based on the feeling that nuclear weapons are not a legitimate weapon of war.
-She examines how the nuclear taboo has repeatedly dissuaded US and other world leaders from resorting to these ‘ultimate weapons’
The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use (TANNEWALD)
-Regulative Effects
-Constitutive Effects
-Permissive Effects
Normative Effects of Nuclear Weapons
A norm that restricts states from doing something to create a fairer world and governs the behavior of actors in their interactions with other actors
Regulative Effects
The idea that the state can be a state if they just prove that they have the necessary elements, a strong enough demonstration and they exist as a legal person
Constitutive Effects
A premeditated threat or use of violence against noncombatant targets by individuals or subnational groups to obtain a political or social objective through intimidation of a larger audience
Terrorism
Norm that is allowing or characterized by great or excessive freedom of behavior
Permissive Effects
Perpetrators of terrorism can be individuals, groups, or organizations with political, ideological, religious, or social motivations
Who commits terrorism?
Targets and victims of terrorism vary widely and can include civilians, government officials, religious groups, ethnic minorities, and symbolic landmarks. Usually innocent civilians.
Who are the targets and victims?
The purpose of terrorism is often to instill fear, create political or social change, or advance a specific agenda through the use of violence and intimidation.
What is the purpose of terrorism?
Purposive behavior or strategies by which individuals or groups pursue their interests
Rationality
Relative to states
Relative to their own demands
Why are terrorist organizations weak?
Actors whose interests are not widely shared by others; individuals or groups that are politically weak relative to the demands they make.
Extremists
Information (terrorist groups can not show their capabilities in advance, so the attack itself is the communication), commitment (promising not to use violence in the future) and Indivisibility (role of religion?)
What can be the bargaining issues with terrorism?
Signaling capability and resolve
They can’t show capabilities in advance, so the attack itself is the communication.
Information (Terrorism)
Promising not to use violence in the future
Commitment (Terrorism)
They kill in order to advance a political objective, not as an end in its own right.
What separates terrorists from mass murderers?
Terrorist adopt organizational forms that make it hard for traditional military forces to defeat them. They often have small cells that are loosely connected, so that the org survives if one section is attacked.
How are terrorist groups formed?
A strategy of imposing or threatening to impose costs on other actors in order to induce a change in their behavior
Coercion
A strategy of terrorist attacks intended to provoke the target government into making a disproportionate response that alienated moderates in the terrorist home society or in other sympathetic audiences
Provocation
A strategy of terrorist attacks intended to sabotage a prospective peace between the target and moderate leadership from the terrorists home society
Spoiling
A strategy of terrorist attacks designed to demonstrate superior capability and commitment relative to other groups devoted to the same cause.
Outbidding
Reflects the tension between maintaining operational security (OPSEC) and the need for effective communication to spread their ideology and recruit members.
Terrorist Dilemma
-Deterrence
-Preemption
-Defensive measures
-Criminalizations
-Negotiations and Compromise
What are strategies to prevent terrorism?
Communicate in an effective manner, and insist that the group will not engage in future violence, but this depends on credibility.
How can terrorist reach an agreement with government?
Goals of terrorist are often non-negotiable. The connection of religion makes them indivisible, for example Israel and Palestine.
What is the problem with terrorists goals, and why would a state not want to make concessions to a terrorist group?
Attacks by individuals who are not actually members of the group but who share its goals (ex. Boston Marathon) often terrorist groups share their message on social media and people may get “inspired”. They are rarely as lethal but much harder to prevent
Lone Wolf Attacks
Terrorism is effective at killing and maiming people and at creating fear within targeted populations, but since the purpose is a political or social objective. terrorist groups rarely get their way.
Does terrorism work?
A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and a rebel group, often measured as conflict that caused at least 1,000 battle-related deaths.
Civil Wars
Armed conflict between actors with highly unequal military capabilities, such as when rebel groups or terrorists fight strong states
Asymmetrical Warfare
A military strategy in which small, often lightly armed units engage in hit-and 0run attacks against the military , government and civilian targets.
What is an Insurgency?
Is a dichotomy used to analyze the motivations behind conflicts, suggesting that they can be driven either by economic interests (greed) or by underlying grievances such as political, social, or ethnic grievances.
Greed vs. Grievance
Fighting over land.
Territorial Conflict
An actor that seeks to create an independent states on territory carved from an existing state (South Sudan, Kosovo, East Timor, Eritrea)
Separatist Conflict
An actor that seeks to detach a region from once country attack it to another, usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties (Ukraine)
Irredentist Conflict
When groups seek to seize control of the central government and establish a new regime.
Center-seeking Conflict
Occurs when negotiating parties are unable to reach a mutually acceptable agreement, often due to disagreements over terms, conflicting interests, or an inability to find common ground.
Bargaining Failure
Situations where individuals, each acting in their own self-interest, may fail to cooperate or contribute to a common goal, leading to suboptimal outcomes for the group.
Collective Action Problems
Shared ethnic, religious, or linguistic affinity. Shared access to resources. Share a sense of injustice directed at the government.
Group-Level Factors
National wealth or regime type, geography and population.
Country-level Factors
International Support. Proxy wars, conflicts in which two opposing sides “fight” by supporting opposite sides in a war, such as the government and rebels in a third state.
International Factors
Information asymmetries refer to situations where one party in a transaction or interaction possesses more or superior information than the other, potentially creating imbalances in decision-making and outcomes.
Information Asymmetries
Occur when parties in a relationship or agreement struggle to trust each other’s promises or commitments, hindering cooperation due to concerns about potential future changes in behavior or interests.
Commitment Problems
Resources or benefits that cannot be divided without losing their functionality or value, often posing challenges in equitable distribution or sharing.
Indivisible Goods
The opposing sides do not trust each other and oftentimes, one side achieves an outright victory or loses support. Only ¼ of civil conflicts end with a settlement. Reaching an agreement this way requires some mechanism to ensure the government will live by their deal.
Why do Civil Wars rarely end in settlements?
-Counterinsurgency
-Hearts and minds
-Peacekeeping
What are strategies to resolve and preventing civil wars?
