Final Flashcards
-Conquests, exemplified by Russia in Crimea and potential actions by China in the South China Sea, pose significant threats to global stability, requiring the United States to reconsider its historical stance of territorial conflicts non-interference.
-Future conflicts between major powers, particularly China and Russia, may involve territorial conquests, with the annexation of Crimea highlighting the resurgence of such actions in Europe and raising concerns about the next potential target.
The Future of Conquest: Fights over small places could spark the next big war (ALTMAN)
Accomplished fact, seizing a disputed piece of territory before the other side can react
Fait Accompli
Small deployments, not large enough to shift the local balance of forces, but meant to deter future aggression, they “die heroically”
Tripwire forces
-The global community can use sanctions and international courts to impose costs on Russia for its blatant and illegal aggression.
-Such a response will require cooperation and sacrifices, but it is well worth the effort. At stake is one of the bedrock principles of international law: the territorial integrity of states.”
The Return of Conquest Why the Future of Global Order Hinges on Ukraine (Fazal)
Condition of mutual deterrence, in which neither side would contemplate an attack on the other, forcing them to resolve their dispute in other ways.
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)?
The action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences
Deterrence
A standard or pattern, especially of social behavior, that is typical or expected of a group.
Norms
Is when the increase in one state’s security (such as increasing its military strength) leads other states to fear for their own security
Security Dilemma
-I have come to believe that this language both reflects and shapes the nature of the American nuclear strategic project; that it plays a central role in allowing defense intellectuals to think and act as they do.
-Calm, detached language. Sex, God, snappy acronyms, domestic language
-Their languages shapes reality.
Sex and Death in the Rational World of Defense Intellectuals (COHN)
-There has been no use of nuclear weapons since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Tannenwald argues that this was not inevitable, but that a tradition of non-use of nuclear weapons has grown up, based on the feeling that nuclear weapons are not a legitimate weapon of war.
-She examines how the nuclear taboo has repeatedly dissuaded US and other world leaders from resorting to these ‘ultimate weapons’
The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use (TANNEWALD)
-Regulative Effects
-Constitutive Effects
-Permissive Effects
Normative Effects of Nuclear Weapons
A norm that restricts states from doing something to create a fairer world and governs the behavior of actors in their interactions with other actors
Regulative Effects
The idea that the state can be a state if they just prove that they have the necessary elements, a strong enough demonstration and they exist as a legal person
Constitutive Effects
A premeditated threat or use of violence against noncombatant targets by individuals or subnational groups to obtain a political or social objective through intimidation of a larger audience
Terrorism
Norm that is allowing or characterized by great or excessive freedom of behavior
Permissive Effects
Perpetrators of terrorism can be individuals, groups, or organizations with political, ideological, religious, or social motivations
Who commits terrorism?
Targets and victims of terrorism vary widely and can include civilians, government officials, religious groups, ethnic minorities, and symbolic landmarks. Usually innocent civilians.
Who are the targets and victims?
The purpose of terrorism is often to instill fear, create political or social change, or advance a specific agenda through the use of violence and intimidation.
What is the purpose of terrorism?
Purposive behavior or strategies by which individuals or groups pursue their interests
Rationality
Relative to states
Relative to their own demands
Why are terrorist organizations weak?
Actors whose interests are not widely shared by others; individuals or groups that are politically weak relative to the demands they make.
Extremists
Information (terrorist groups can not show their capabilities in advance, so the attack itself is the communication), commitment (promising not to use violence in the future) and Indivisibility (role of religion?)
What can be the bargaining issues with terrorism?
Signaling capability and resolve
They can’t show capabilities in advance, so the attack itself is the communication.
Information (Terrorism)
Promising not to use violence in the future
Commitment (Terrorism)
They kill in order to advance a political objective, not as an end in its own right.
What separates terrorists from mass murderers?
Terrorist adopt organizational forms that make it hard for traditional military forces to defeat them. They often have small cells that are loosely connected, so that the org survives if one section is attacked.
How are terrorist groups formed?
A strategy of imposing or threatening to impose costs on other actors in order to induce a change in their behavior
Coercion
A strategy of terrorist attacks intended to provoke the target government into making a disproportionate response that alienated moderates in the terrorist home society or in other sympathetic audiences
Provocation
A strategy of terrorist attacks intended to sabotage a prospective peace between the target and moderate leadership from the terrorists home society
Spoiling
A strategy of terrorist attacks designed to demonstrate superior capability and commitment relative to other groups devoted to the same cause.
Outbidding
Reflects the tension between maintaining operational security (OPSEC) and the need for effective communication to spread their ideology and recruit members.
Terrorist Dilemma
-Deterrence
-Preemption
-Defensive measures
-Criminalizations
-Negotiations and Compromise
What are strategies to prevent terrorism?
Communicate in an effective manner, and insist that the group will not engage in future violence, but this depends on credibility.
How can terrorist reach an agreement with government?
Goals of terrorist are often non-negotiable. The connection of religion makes them indivisible, for example Israel and Palestine.
What is the problem with terrorists goals, and why would a state not want to make concessions to a terrorist group?
Attacks by individuals who are not actually members of the group but who share its goals (ex. Boston Marathon) often terrorist groups share their message on social media and people may get “inspired”. They are rarely as lethal but much harder to prevent
Lone Wolf Attacks
Terrorism is effective at killing and maiming people and at creating fear within targeted populations, but since the purpose is a political or social objective. terrorist groups rarely get their way.
Does terrorism work?
A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and a rebel group, often measured as conflict that caused at least 1,000 battle-related deaths.
Civil Wars
Armed conflict between actors with highly unequal military capabilities, such as when rebel groups or terrorists fight strong states
Asymmetrical Warfare
A military strategy in which small, often lightly armed units engage in hit-and 0run attacks against the military , government and civilian targets.
What is an Insurgency?
Is a dichotomy used to analyze the motivations behind conflicts, suggesting that they can be driven either by economic interests (greed) or by underlying grievances such as political, social, or ethnic grievances.
Greed vs. Grievance
Fighting over land.
Territorial Conflict
An actor that seeks to create an independent states on territory carved from an existing state (South Sudan, Kosovo, East Timor, Eritrea)
Separatist Conflict
An actor that seeks to detach a region from once country attack it to another, usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties (Ukraine)
Irredentist Conflict
When groups seek to seize control of the central government and establish a new regime.
Center-seeking Conflict
Occurs when negotiating parties are unable to reach a mutually acceptable agreement, often due to disagreements over terms, conflicting interests, or an inability to find common ground.
Bargaining Failure
Situations where individuals, each acting in their own self-interest, may fail to cooperate or contribute to a common goal, leading to suboptimal outcomes for the group.
Collective Action Problems
Shared ethnic, religious, or linguistic affinity. Shared access to resources. Share a sense of injustice directed at the government.
Group-Level Factors
National wealth or regime type, geography and population.
Country-level Factors
International Support. Proxy wars, conflicts in which two opposing sides “fight” by supporting opposite sides in a war, such as the government and rebels in a third state.
International Factors
Information asymmetries refer to situations where one party in a transaction or interaction possesses more or superior information than the other, potentially creating imbalances in decision-making and outcomes.
Information Asymmetries
Occur when parties in a relationship or agreement struggle to trust each other’s promises or commitments, hindering cooperation due to concerns about potential future changes in behavior or interests.
Commitment Problems
Resources or benefits that cannot be divided without losing their functionality or value, often posing challenges in equitable distribution or sharing.
Indivisible Goods
The opposing sides do not trust each other and oftentimes, one side achieves an outright victory or loses support. Only ¼ of civil conflicts end with a settlement. Reaching an agreement this way requires some mechanism to ensure the government will live by their deal.
Why do Civil Wars rarely end in settlements?
-Counterinsurgency
-Hearts and minds
-Peacekeeping
What are strategies to resolve and preventing civil wars?
Modern COIN doctrine: using military forces to protect the civilian populations and create
a secure space for economic reconstruction
Counterinsurgency
Kinda hard to tell because we are not using lab controls.
Around the same amount of civil wars.
Does peacekeeping keep the peace?
Small in size, involve unarmed monitors.
Observer Missions
Somewhat larger, involve lightly armed military units in addition to observers; they are authorized to use force for self-defense.
Traditional Peacekeeping
Supplement traditional peacekeeping with large civilian components to monitor elections, train or monitor police, monitor human rights, and sometimes administer the country.
Multidimensional Peacekeeping
-Many different motivations
-Individuals experience a gap in the costs vs benefits of speaking out
-As more people protest, it becomes easier for people to take the risk.
Why do people protest?
Human rights, civil rights, particular policies, leadership change.
Grievances
The rights possessed by all individuals by virtue of being human, regardless of their status as citizens of particular states or members of a group or organization.
Human Rights
The procedure by which a state or nation, upon receipt of a formal request by another state or nation, turns over to that second jurisdiction an individual charged with or convicted of a crime in that jurisdiction.
Extradition
-Generational divides
-Technology and protest
-Race and Identity Issues
-International Opinion
-International Spillover
-The role of military and police
What shapes protest movements?
A series of pro-democracy uprisings and protests that swept across the Arab world in the early 2010s, fueled by demands for political reform, economic improvement, and an end to autocratic rule. While initially leading to changes in leadership and some reforms in certain countries, the outcomes varied, with some nations experiencing ongoing instability and conflicts.
The Arab Spring
The transfer of goods and services from one person or entity to another, often in exchange for money.
Trade
Division of labor + specialization: increases productivity, which fuels economic growth.
What’s so good about trade?
A government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports
Trade Policy
The ability of a country or frirm to produce more of a particular good or service than other countries or firms can produce with the same amount of effort and resources.
Absolute Advantage
The ability of a county or firm to produce a particular food or service more efficiently than it can produce other goods or services, such that its resources are more efficiently employed in this activity.
Comparative Advantage
A belief that national econmic policy should encourage exports and discourage imports, and that the country should aim to run a trade surplus. So called in a relationship to the classical mercantilism of the colonial powers.
Neo-Mercantilism
-Land
-Labor
-Capital
What are factors of production?
Can it be farmed or not?
Does it have natural resources or not?
Land Factors
Skilled vs unskilled (i.e., engineers vs. factory workers)
Labor Factors
Human versus financial; different types of finance, technology, and equipment.
Capital Factors
The theory that a county will export goods that make intensive use of the factors of production of which it is well endowed
-Labor abundant→ labor goods
-Capital abundant→ capital goods
-Example: Indonesia textile industry
Heckscher-Ohlin Trade Theory
The imposition of barriers to restrict imports.
Protectionism
Government limitations on the international exchange of goods.
Trade Barriers
A tax imposed on imports. Tariffs raise the domestic proce of imported good and may be applied for the purpose of protecting domestic producers from foreign competition.
Tariff
A limit placed on the amount of a particular good that is allowed to be imported and sold domestically.
Quantitative restriction (quota)
Obstacles to imports other than tariffs.
Nontariff barriers to trade
Government payments to business producing goods and services to export.
Subsidies
Some exports are prohibited (i.e., sensitive military technologies)
Prohibitions
Producers gain, and consumers lose, from trade protectionism But it also increases inefficiencies: leads domestic producers to make more goods that they are not the best at making, and leads consumers to consume less of goods that have been made artificially expensive
What are the results of trade protectionism?
Domestic Politics!
Why do states impose protectionist policies?
-Factor based preferences: Stolper-Samuelson approach
-Specific factors model: Ricardo-Viner approach
What are competing explanations for opposition to trade?
Trade protection benefits the scare factor of production. (Relevant actor = classes)
It emphasizes the interests of broad factors of production - land, labor, capital. Owners of the scarce resources will be protectionist and owners of the abundant resources to favor free trade. For example, if the country exports labor-intensive goods, the demand for labor will go up with wages so the labor group will support trade. LONG TERM.
Stolper-Samuelson Approach (Factor Based)
A model of trade relations that emphasizes the sector in which factors of production are employed, rather than the nature of the factor itself. (Relevant actor = industries)
Industries in capital for example, do not care about other industries but only their own and this can also apply to workers. People’s interests are tightly bound up with the interests of others in their sector of the economy, and the pertinent actors in domestic trade-policy debates are economic sectors, not factors. SHORT TERM.
Ricardo-Viner Approach (Specific Factors)
Individuals may support free trade because it aligns with their personal economic interests (self-interest), because they perceive it as beneficial for the overall society (sociotropic politics), or due to concerns about the economic well-being of groups outside their own (out-group anxiety).
Support for Free Trade: Self-Interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out-Group Anxiety (Mansfield and Mutz)
Perception about collective outcome from policies, not from individual experience
Sociotropic Beliefs
Domestic protected industries receive clear and concentrated benefits.
Ex: U.S. Steel
Who benefits from domestic trade protection?
-Consumers of the imported good
-Exporters (who worry about trade retaliation)
-Politicians who promote protectionism—when citizens are willing to punish them at the polls for such policies
Who loses from protectionist policies?
-Some gains from trade can be used to compensate the losers, weakening their opposition to free trade.
-Postwar Western countries employ many types of compensation; for example, worker retraining programs and unemployment benefits.
What is compensation for the losers?
The policies of one country depend in part on policies in other countries, producing strategic interaction.
Interaction
Reciprocity
Most favored nation status
World Trade Organization
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
Regional Trade Agreements
International institutions and trade
Refers to the practice of exchanging equivalent benefits or concessions between countries, often as part of a mutual agreement or understanding.
Reciprocity
Refers to a principle in trade agreements where a country extends the same favorable trade terms and privileges to another nation that it provides to its most favored trading partner.
Most favored nation status
An international organization that facilitates global trade negotiations, establishes rules for trade among member countries, and provides a forum for resolving trade disputes.
World Trade Organization
A multilateral treaty established in 1947 to promote international trade by reducing tariffs and trade barriers among participating countries, providing a framework for negotiations, and fostering economic cooperation. Replaced by WTO.
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
Pacts between two or more countries within a specific geographic region, aiming to facilitate trade by reducing barriers such as tariffs and promoting cooperation on various economic issues.
Regional Trade Agreements
Primarily a political principle, which holds that the political and national unit should be congruent.
A nation is a soul, a spiritual principle.
Nationalism
Mass and democratic
Ex: French Revolution
Civic Nationalism
Specific and ethno-linguistic
Ex: German Nationalism
Ethnic Nationalism
The spread of activities and ideas across the globe, in economics, involves increasing integration of national economies through the movement of goods, service, money, and people actors borders.
Globalization
A broad array of political movements that claim to speak on behalf of the people, in opposition to corrupt elites, both domestic and foreign.
Populism
Emphasizes radical redistribution of wealth
Left-Wing Populism
Emphasizes nationalism, traditional cultural values.
Right-Wing Populism
A political position involving criticism of the European Union (EU) and European integration by the British.
Euroskepticism
Negotiated by but ultimately rejected by the United States as a counterweight to Chinese influence, may survive in part because other TPP signatories, particularly Japan and Canada, are still interested in expanding trade within the Asia-Pacific region.
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
-Empowered corporations and investors more than ordinary people. Not good for people and led to sharp income inequality.
-Economic insecurity in the developed world. Workers have suffered competition with low wage production sites
-Economic insecurity in the developing world.
What are critiques to globalization?
Populism often exploits economic grievances and racial anxieties, as it appeals to segments of the population facing economic hardships and uses divisive rhetoric to scapegoat certain racial or ethnic groups, fostering a sense of “us versus them.”
What role do economics and race play in populism?
A broad concept denoting the idea that societies and countries have differing levels of economic or human development on an international scale.
International Development
Developing countries listed by the United Nations that exhibit the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development.
Less Developed Countries (LDCs)
The basic physical and organizational structures and facilities (e.g. buildings, roads, power supplies) needed for the operation of a society or enterprise.
Infrastructure
-Less material wealth and income
-Less equitable distribution of wealth
-Continued migration to urban areas
-Lack of domestic investment in services and infrastructure.
-Often, a younger and rapidly growing populations
-Less developed countries (LDCs) countries at a relatively low level of economic development.
Why are some countries poorer?
-Geography and history
-Colonialism and development
-Government Policies
What are some domestic factors that affect development?
Countries rich in natural resources are paradoxically less developed and experience worse political and social outcomes
Resource Curse
Raw materials and agricultural products, typically unprocessed or only slightly processed. The primary sectors are distinguished from secondary sectors (industry) and tertiary sectors (services)
Primary Products
A situation in which a market or industry is dominated by a few firms
Oligopoly
The relationship between a country’s export prices and its import prices
Terms of trade
A set of policies, pursued by most developing countries from the 1930s through the 1980s, to reduce imports and encourage domestic manufacturing, often through trade barriers, subsidies to manufacturing, and state ownership of basic industries
Import-substituting industrialization (ISI)
A set of policies, originally pursued in the mid-1960s by several East Asian countries, to spur manufacturing for export, often through subsidies and incentives for export production.
Export oriented industrialization (EOI)
A massive infrastructure and economic development project aiming to connect Asia with Europe and Africa through a network of land and maritime routes, promoting trade and investment. It involves significant investments in infrastructure, such as ports and railways, with the goal of enhancing economic connectivity and strengthening China’s geopolitical influence.
China’s Belt & Road Initiative
A coalition of developing countries in the UN, formed in 1964 with 77 members, that seeks changes to the international economic order to favor the developing world. It has grown to over 130 members but retains the original name.
Group of 77
Associations of producers and commodities (raw materials and agricultural products) that restrict world supply of their products and thereby cause the price of their goods to rise.
Commodity Cartels
-Tax on carbon emissions
-Property rights: cap and trade
-Regulation
What are policy options for climate change?
An international treaty within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It involves voluntary commitments by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance climate resilience, and provide financial support to developing nations to address climate-related challenges.
2015 Paris Agreement
An international agreement enacted in 1992, and entered into force in 1994, that provides an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts on climate change.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
A problem that occurs when a resource is open to all, without limit. No one has incentive to conserve, so the resource suffers degradation.
Tragedy of the commons
Goods that, if available to be consumed by one actor, cannot be prevented from being consumed by other actors as well.
Nonexcludable goods
Goods for which consumption by one actor does not diminish the quantity available for others.
Nonrival goods
An amendment to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, that established specific targets for reducing emission of carbon and five other greenhouse gases through 2020.
Kyoto Protocol
A framework convention adopted in 1985 to regulate activities, especially emission of CFC’s that damage the ozone layer.
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer
An international treaty signed in 1987, that is designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of a number of CFCs and other chemical compounds.
Montreal Protocol
A cap and trade system sets and overall limit on emissions, which is then lowered over time to reduce pollutants into the athmosphere. Firms can sell credits when they emit less than their allocation or must buy from others when they emit more than their allocation.
Cap-and-trade system
The commitment each party to the Paris Agreement makes as to how it will contribute to reducing the threat of global warming.
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
Cost or benefits resulting from an actors decision that affect stakeholders other than that actor. When an externality exists, the decision maker does not bear all the costs or reap all the gains from the action.
Externatilities
