FIN 4324 FINAL Flashcards
• Firms demand funds, investors supply funds
Supply curve shifts to the right and the return on funds drops.
• Firms supply Bonds, investors demand bonds.
Demand curve shifts to the right, price of bonds increases.
Macaulay’s Duration
- Find the current price of the bond. Calculate the PV of the cash flow at each year, multiply each cash flow by the year, add them all together and divide by the current price.
Qualities of Macaulay’s Duration:
o Measures Economic Payback (recovery of investment)
o Measures Interest Rate Risk
Properties of Macaulay’s Duration:
Duration of a zero-coupon bond = its maturity
Longer maturity = larger duration
Higher Coupon rate = smaller duration
Higher Yield = Smaller Duration
Convexity
- For large changes in yield: % price change not the same for increases vs. decreases in yield.
o % price increase > % price decrease
o “convexity adjustment needed for accurate estimate in price changes
- Duration GAP used to calculate the sensitivity of profits to changes in interest rates:
Chang in profits = -Adjusted DGAP * Assets * %ChangeRates
Change in ROA = Change in Profits / Assets
Change in ROE = Change in Profits / Equity
- Benefits of DGAP:
o NPV based
o Duration accounts for cash flows before and at maturity
- Shortcomings of DGAP:
o Doesn’t account for convexity
o Since durations change over time, must be recalculated.
o More costly than repricing GAP.
o On balance Sheet hedging (Liability Sensitive Banks)
Shorten its assets, use more variable rate loans, lengthen its liabilities, use more fixed-rate liabilities.
Banks might not want shorter term assets, or longer term liabilities because they would affect the banks liabilities.
- Liability sensitive banks can:
o On balance Sheet hedging (Assets-Liability Management)
o Hold more equity capital
Cushion against potential losses, expensive funding
o Hedge off-balance Sheet
- Benefits of derivatives:
o Provide price information
o Allow risk to be managed and shifted among market participants
o Reduce transaction costs
Forward Contracts
- Bilateral Contract: One party buys and other sells a specific quantity if an asset at a set price on a set date in the future. (OTC)
Payoff of Forward Contracts
o If Exp. Future price of the asset goes up, the right to buy will have positive value, right to sell negative.
o If exp. Future price of the asset falls, right to buy will have negative value, right to sell positive.
Purpose of Forward Contracts
o Hedge a risk they already have, by eliminating uncertainty about the price of an asset they plan to buy or sell.
o Some parties may enter the contract as a speculation on the future price.
- Forward rate Agreements (FRAs) (Eurodollar forward contracts)
o Can be viewed as a forward contract to borrow/lend money at a certain rate at a future date
o OTC contract
- Find the PV of the payout or loan savings
Future Markets and Contracts:
- Similar to forwards:
o Deliverable or cash settlements
o Contract valued at 0 at the time it is created. - Differences:
o Futures trade on organized exchanges, forwards are private and do not trade
o Futures, are marked to market; contract price adjusted each day
o Highly standardized vs customized forward contracts
o A single clearinghouse is the counterparty to all futures contracts; forwards are contracts with the originating counterparty
o The government regulates futures markets; forward contracts are not regulated.
- Treasury Bill Futures
o Launched in 1976, first interest rate futures contract
o Based on 90-day U.S. T-Bill
o One T-bill Future equals $1,000,000
o Barely active today, too much regulation and influence from U.S. gov’t policies, budget deficits, gov’t funding plans, politics and Fed monetary policy.
o Eurodollar contract is considered more important, reflects the interest rate on a dollar borrowed by a high-quality private borrower.
- Eurodollar futures
o $1,000,000 notional principal of 90-day Eurodollars.
o Underlying rate is on a 90-day dollar-denominated time deposit issued by a bank in London
o Cash Settlement
o Minimum tick size is $25 (=$1,000,000[0.0001(90/360)])
- Treasury Bond Futures
o Face value of $100,000
o Traded for treasury bonds with a minimum maturity of 15 years and with any coupon
o Deliverable contract, a conversion factor is used to adjust the long’s payment at delivery so that the more valuable bonds receive a higher payment.
o Minimum tick size is 1/32, which is $31.25
- You expect interest rates to rise:
o Cost of selling deposits and cost of borrowing in the money market will rise.
o The value of existing bonds and fixed-rate loans will decrease.
o To offset expected losses, you sell bond futures contracts (short hedge)
- You expect interest rates to fall.
o Fixed-rate, long-term deposits will have to be invested in loans and securities bearing lower yields
o To offset expected losses, you buy bond futures contracts (long hedge).
- You are asset-sensitive or with negative Duration GAP.
o A decrease in interest rates will incur losses.
o To offset expected losses, you buy bond futures contracts (long hedge).
- You are liability-sensitive or with positive Duration GAP.
o An increase in interest rates will incur losses.
o To offset expected losses, you sell bond futures contracts (short hedge)
Suppose a bank has an average asset duration of four years, an average liability duration of two years, total assets of $500 million, and total liabilities of $460 million. The bank plans to trade in Treasury bond futures contracts. The underlying T-bonds have a duration of nine years and the Tbonds’ current price is $99,700 per $100,000 contract. (1) What is the adjusted duration gap? (2) How many futures contract does the bank need to hedge against an interest rate increase? (3) Does it have to long or short futures
Solve problem
Basis Risk:
- Spot bonds and futures on bonds are traded in different markets.
- The shift in yields, ∆𝑅 (1+𝑅) , affecting the values of the on-balance sheet cash portfolio may differ from the shift in yields, ∆𝑅𝐹 1+𝑅𝐹 , affecting the value of the underlying bond in the futures contract.
- Changes in spot and futures prices or values are not perfectly correlated; this lack of perfect correlation is called basis risk.
- Basis = cash market price – futures market price
- Basis risk with a short hedge:
Dollar Return = Basis at termination of hedge - Basis at initiation of hedge
Basis risk with a long hedge:
Dollar Return = Basis at initiation of hedge - Basis at termination of hedge
- Option Premium:
to acquire these rights, owners of options must buy them by paying a price to the seller of the option.
Costs of Swaps
o Search costs:
o Credit (counterparty) Risk: Bank B could default on swap contract. o Example: Rates go up to 4%.
Bank A should receive $2,000,000 from Bank B.
If Bank B defaults, Bank A must replace the swap contract.
Replacement swap will be more expensive (4% fixed payments).
Swaps Dealer
- The dealer is running a “balanced book.”
o Is fully hedged against movements in interest rates.
o Otherwise, the dealer would be speculating on interest rates. - Dealer earns fee income from the sales of both swap contracts.
o Dealer does the searching.
o Dealer accepts the counterparty risk.
- Interest rate collars
o An interest rate collar combines a cap and a floor.
o A borrower with a floating rate loan may buy a cap for protection against rates above the cap and sells a floor in order to defray some of the cost of the cap.
o The collar’s purchaser pays a premium for a rate cap while receiving a premium for accepting a rate floor
- Securitization:
packaging and selling loans to outside parties rather than holding loans on the balance sheet until maturity.
- In effect, illiquid loans are transformed into publicly traded securities
Reason for securitization
- As a way (1) to manage interest rate, liquidity, and credit risks and (2) to raise new capital, securitization emerged in the 1970s and 80s
People involved in securitization
- Originator: lender whose loans are securitized
- Issuer: Loans are passed thru the issuer, usually designated as a special-purpose entity.
- A trustee is appointed to ensure the issuer fulfills all the requirements of the transfer of loans to the pool and provides investors with all the services promised.
- Servicer(often also the originator): collects payments on securitized loans and passes them to the trustee who eventually pays the investors
Freddie Mae
Fed. Nat’l Mortgage Association
Chartered by U.S. gov’t in 1938
Created liquidity by purchasing mortgages from lenders
o Freddie Mac
Fed. Home Loan Mortgage Association
Chartered by U.S. gov’t in 1970
Similar to fannie mae but bought mostly from thrift institutions
Ginnie Mae
Gov’t Nat’l Mortgage Association
Split off from Fannie Mae in 1968
Wholly-owned gov’t corp.
How Do Government Sponsored Enterprises Invest and Securitize?
- Fannie and Freddie mainly purchase conforming mortgages from banks and securitize them.
a. Creates “passthrough” MBSs, sold to institutional investors
b. Gurantee the MBS payments and timing of those payments - Also hold some mortgages
a. During Clinton admin “affordable lending goals”
i. ~50% of fannie and Freddie’s own portfolios must be mortgages to low and moderate income families
- Mortgage backed security (MBS
a debt instrument backed by a pool of mortgages.
- Collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO)
a debt instrument backed by a pool of MBS:
o CMO is a securitization of MBS
o Commercial or investment bank purchases hundreds or thousands of MBSs, then it puts the MBSs into a pool and finances the pool by selling CMOs
- Reasons for CMOS:
o Redistributing prepayment risk
o Creating securities with various maturity range.
- CMOs are created to satisfy a broader range of investor risk/return preferences.
- CMOs have different “tranches”
o Each tranche has different fixed coupons and different exposure to prepayments
Ex.
A Tranche (Short term): Recieves no prepayment protection
B tranche (the intermediate-term): Protected from prepayment until the A tranche is paid off.
C tranche (the long-term): Protected from prepayment until the B tranche is paid off.
How Investors Use CMOs
- Investors who want longer term, more predictable cash flows will invest in C tranches.
- Investors who want shorter term investments, and can live with some cash flow volatility, will invest in A tranches.
- Higher tranches get lower coupon rates and less credit risk because they are paid off earlier
- Tranche x:
These investors get no coupon, and they get paid off last. They are exposed to the most credit risk.
o These investors have a special upside: They receive all remaining principal and interest cash flows after other tranches are paid off.
o This is called the “equity tranche.“ These investors benefit if the MBS pool contains fewer than expected loan defaults