Fertility, Population and Development Flashcards
World Population Growth
-> population growth interia - cataclysm -
-> wealth - > aspirations -> want more things -> have less children
For exam, often asked a long answer question. include argument, theory, evidence, personal opinion is ok.
World Population Growth
recent paper argues that censuses systematically undercounted rural populations
Examined instances of dam construction projects
“Even the 2010 datasets still missed between one- third (32 per cent) and three-quarters (77 per cent) of rural residents”
Basic Concepts: Migration
Rate of population increase:
The growth rate of a population, calculated as the natural increase after adjusting for immigration and emigration.
Natural increase:
The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a given population.
Net international migration:
The excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that country.
-> Minor importance, population increase in developing countries almost entirely driven by difference in birth/death rates.
Basic Concepts: Birth and Fertility
Crude birth rate:
The number of children born alive each year per 1,000 population (often shortened to birth rate).
Crude Death rate:
The number of deaths each year per 1,000 population.
-> Fallen significantly in recent years.
Total fertility rate (TFR):
Number of children that would be born to a woman IF she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.
-> Fallen dramatically around the world (esp. since 1970), but high rates persist in certain regions of the world.
-> note this is TOTAL, better to look at different categories/demograhpics
Basic Concepts
Life expectancy at birth: The number of years a newborn child would live if subjected to the mortality risks prevailing for the population at the time of the child’s birth.
* About 12 years greater in developed countries.
* Gap fallen significantly in recent years.
Under-5 mortality rate: Deaths among children between birth and 5 years of age per 1,000 live births.
* Significant progress made.
Youth dependency ratio: The proportion of young people under age 15 to the working population aged 16 to 64 in a country.
Momentum of Population Growth
The phenomenon whereby population continues to increase even after a fall in birth rates because the large existing youthful population expands the population’s base of potential parents.
Two reasons:
(a) High birth rates cannot be altered overnight.
(b) Age structure of developing countries’ population.
Population Pyramids
Demographic Transitions
Process: fertility rates go from high to low, and importantly, very stable levels.
1. Pre-industrialsociety:‘HighGrowthPotentialStage’:
stable/slow-growing populations since high birth rates but also similarly high death rates.
- Modernisation ‘transitional growth stage’: Better public health, diets, incomes etc. Reductions in mortality and rising life expectancies.
But, fall in death rates NOT immediately accompanied by falling fertility rates. Leads to rapid population growth - demographic dividend. The curve in the bottom line of dem tran WE graph at stage 3.
– (a) high (even increasing) fertility and declining mortality
– (b) medium fertility and declining mortality
- Falling fertility rates ‘Incipient Decline Stage’: falling birth rates, falling death rates leading to little or no population growth.
TLDR: all countries start with high birth rates, and then when developed they lower birth rates and they never go back once past that point.
Demographic accounting: you need enough people to provide for your young and old
Dem. Tran. in Western Europe
Dem. Tran. in Developing World
Rates can fall more or less quickly depending not he situation, but they do fall.
Demographic Transitions
Demographic Dividend
Where are the workers from?
Malthusian Population Trap
The idea that rising population and diminishing returns to fixed factors (land) result in a low levels of living (population trap).
* Population rising geometrically
* Food rising arithmetically
* As population increases each person has less land to work with
* Marginal contribution to food production falls
* Food supplies outstripped by population growth
* Per capita incomes fall, so low in fact that population stable at or slightly above subsistence
* Therefore people should engage in ‘moral constraint’!
Malthusian Population Trap: Graph
per cap inc rising before s
-> ppl aren’t coordinating to break out of subsistence
-> stable eq at s
-> known as subsistence
-> but, IT IS BAD, youre just poor
-> if you move a bit to the right youre pushed back, and al little to the left youre pushed up
after T, is unstable but GOOD eq.
and after t
Malthusian Checks
Malthus Critique
-> ignores role and impact of tech
as seen in food production now, tech has meant we have much more than we need. But for all of human history up until recent, it was likely a good fit. Only after the introduction of technology
->
->
Household Theory of Fertility
Not worth assessing, but will be in tutorial question
Household Theory of Fertility: Graph
The ‘demand’ for children
Lessons HH Models
is valuable but slightly immoral maybe?
policy applications have been based around important things
Consequences of High Fertility: Argument A
Population growth: “It’s Not a Real Problem”:
* The real problem is not population growth but rather:
* Underdevelopment
* World resource depletion and environmental destruction
* Population Distribution
* Subordination of women
* “Overpopulation is a Deliberately Contrived False Issue”
* “Population Growth is a Desirable Phenomenon”
Consequences of High Fertility: Argument B
“Population Growth Is a Real Problem”
* Extremist arguments
* Theoretical arguments
* Empirical arguments
– Lower economic growth
– Poverty
– Adverse impact on education
– Adverse impact on health
– Food constraints
– Impact on the environment
– Frictions over international migration
Toward a Consensus
Despite the conflicting opinions, some common ground:
*rapid pop growth usually/can lead to poor policy solutions
* Population is not the primary cause of lower living levels
* Population growth more a consequence than cause of underdevelopment
* It’s not numbers but quality of life that matters
* Nevertheless rapid population increases likely to exacerbate various issues and thus.
* Voluntary decreases in fertility is generally desirable for most developing countries with still-expanding populations
Policy Approaches
Attend to underlying socioeconomic conditions that impact development
Family planning programs should provide education and technological means to regulate fertility
Developed countries have responsibilities too Address gender bias, causes of boy preference
Policy Approaches: What can developing countries do?
Policy Approaches: What can developed countries and do generally?
Policy Approaches: How can developed countries help developing countries with their population programs?
Unified Growth Theory: Background
Seeks to explain growth process since the Neolithic revolution (first agricultural revolution)
* Neolithic revolution (10,000 BC): Favorable biogeographic initial conditions – in particular the prevalence of plants and animals suited to domestication – expedited the transition from hunter–gatherer to sedentary agriculture in advantaged areas, leading to the rise of early “civilization” (J Diamond, 1997, Guns, Germs and Steel).
Unified Growth Theory: Background
Posits Three growth regimes since the Neolitic Revolution in the OECD:
* Malthusian growth regime (-10,000-1820): Subsistence income of broad masses. Income effects of technological progress were eaten up by population growth.
* Post-Malthusian growth regime (1820-1890). Y- Pop increases kept down by population growth and slow technological progress.
* Modern growth regime (1890-present). Population growth drag subsides.
Post malthusian growth!!!!!!!!!!!
2 opposing effects
