Fallacies and Biases Flashcards
(233 cards)
Appeal to Probability
a statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case)
“There is a 50% chance that it will rain tomorrow, so you should bring an umbrella.”
Appeal to Probability
“The odds of winning the lottery are one in a million, so it’s not worth buying a ticket.”
Appeal to Probability
“There is a 70% chance that this new medication will work for you, so you should definitely try it.”
Appeal to Probability
“The chances of being struck by lightning are very low, so it’s safe to stand outside during a thunderstorm.”
Appeal to Probability
“The probability of getting into a car accident is much higher at night, so you should only drive during the day.”
Appeal to Probability
Define Arguement from Fallacy
the assumption that, if a particular argument for a “conclusion” is fallacious, then the conclusion by itself is false
“This person can’t be guilty because they are a good person.”
Arguement from Fallacy
“The government can’t be trusted because they always lie.”
Arguement from Fallacy
“The moon landing was faked because it’s too difficult to believe that humans could have actually done it.”
Arguement from Fallacy
Base Rate Fallacy
making a probability judgment based on conditional probabilities, without taking into account the effect of prior probabilities
“There is a 0.1% chance that a person has a certain rare disease. The test for the disease is 99% accurate. Jane took the test and it came back positive. Therefore, Jane must have the disease.”
Base Rate Fallacy
“There is a 50% chance that a coin flip will land on heads. I flipped the coin and it landed on heads. Therefore, I must have psychic abilities.”
Base Rate Fallacy
“The probability of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is 0.1%. I was struck by lightning last year. Therefore, I must be extremely unlucky.”
Base Rate Fallacy
Conjunction Fallacy
the assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
the assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
Conjunction Fallacy
“The probability of being involved in a car accident is 5%. The probability of being involved in a car accident and winning the lottery on the same day is even lower. Therefore, it is impossible to be involved in a car accident and win the lottery on the same day.”
Conjunction Fallacy
“The probability of winning the lottery is 1 in a million. The probability of winning the lottery and being struck by lightning in the same year is even lower. Therefore, it is impossible to win the lottery and be struck by lightning in the same year.”
Conjunction Fallacy
“There is a 60% chance that it will rain tomorrow and a 70% chance that Jane will attend the party. Therefore, there is a 100% chance that it will rain and Jane will attend the party.”
Conjunction Fallacy
Masked Man Fallacy
Saying something is true because it could be true without evidence
the substitution of identical designators in a true statement can lead to a false one
Masked Man Fallacy
“Tommy is the only person who could have stolen the cookie from the cookie jar. Tommy is the one who did it.”
Masked Man Fallacy
“Sara is the only person who speaks both English and Spanish. Therefore, if anyone speaks Spanish at the meeting, it must have been Sara.”
Masked Man Fallacy
“John is the only person who has access to the secure room. Therefore, if anything goes missing from the secure room, it must have been John.”
Masked Man Fallacy