Fallacies and Biases Flashcards
Appeal to Probability
a statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case)
“There is a 50% chance that it will rain tomorrow, so you should bring an umbrella.”
Appeal to Probability
“The odds of winning the lottery are one in a million, so it’s not worth buying a ticket.”
Appeal to Probability
“There is a 70% chance that this new medication will work for you, so you should definitely try it.”
Appeal to Probability
“The chances of being struck by lightning are very low, so it’s safe to stand outside during a thunderstorm.”
Appeal to Probability
“The probability of getting into a car accident is much higher at night, so you should only drive during the day.”
Appeal to Probability
Define Arguement from Fallacy
the assumption that, if a particular argument for a “conclusion” is fallacious, then the conclusion by itself is false
“This person can’t be guilty because they are a good person.”
Arguement from Fallacy
“The government can’t be trusted because they always lie.”
Arguement from Fallacy
“The moon landing was faked because it’s too difficult to believe that humans could have actually done it.”
Arguement from Fallacy
Base Rate Fallacy
making a probability judgment based on conditional probabilities, without taking into account the effect of prior probabilities
“There is a 0.1% chance that a person has a certain rare disease. The test for the disease is 99% accurate. Jane took the test and it came back positive. Therefore, Jane must have the disease.”
Base Rate Fallacy
“There is a 50% chance that a coin flip will land on heads. I flipped the coin and it landed on heads. Therefore, I must have psychic abilities.”
Base Rate Fallacy
“The probability of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is 0.1%. I was struck by lightning last year. Therefore, I must be extremely unlucky.”
Base Rate Fallacy
Conjunction Fallacy
the assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
the assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
Conjunction Fallacy
“The probability of being involved in a car accident is 5%. The probability of being involved in a car accident and winning the lottery on the same day is even lower. Therefore, it is impossible to be involved in a car accident and win the lottery on the same day.”
Conjunction Fallacy
“The probability of winning the lottery is 1 in a million. The probability of winning the lottery and being struck by lightning in the same year is even lower. Therefore, it is impossible to win the lottery and be struck by lightning in the same year.”
Conjunction Fallacy
“There is a 60% chance that it will rain tomorrow and a 70% chance that Jane will attend the party. Therefore, there is a 100% chance that it will rain and Jane will attend the party.”
Conjunction Fallacy
Masked Man Fallacy
Saying something is true because it could be true without evidence
the substitution of identical designators in a true statement can lead to a false one
Masked Man Fallacy
“Tommy is the only person who could have stolen the cookie from the cookie jar. Tommy is the one who did it.”
Masked Man Fallacy
“Sara is the only person who speaks both English and Spanish. Therefore, if anyone speaks Spanish at the meeting, it must have been Sara.”
Masked Man Fallacy
“John is the only person who has access to the secure room. Therefore, if anything goes missing from the secure room, it must have been John.”
Masked Man Fallacy
if A, then B; B, therefore A
Affirming the consequent
Affirming the consequent
if A, then B; B, therefore A
“If the car won’t start, then the battery is dead. The car won’t start, therefore the battery must be dead.”
Affirming the consequent
“If the weather is nice, then I will go for a hike. I am going for a hike, therefore the weather must be nice.”
Affirming the consequent
“If I get a good grade on the test, then I studied hard for it. I got a good grade on the test, therefore I must have studied hard for it.”
Affirming the consequent
Denying the antecedent
the consequent in an indicative conditional is claimed to be false because the antecedent is false; if A, then B; not A, therefore not B
if A, then B; not A, therefore not B
Denying the antecedent
“If it’s raining, then the streets will be wet. It’s not raining, therefore the streets won’t be wet.”
Denying the antecedent
“If John is the thief, then he will have the stolen item in his possession. John doesn’t have the stolen item in his possession, therefore he can’t be the thief.”
Denying the antecedent
“If the cake is chocolate, then it will have cocoa powder in it. The cake doesn’t have cocoa powder in it, therefore it can’t be chocolate.”
Denying the antecedent
an argument that has a universal premise and a particular conclusion
Existential fallacy
Existential fallacy
an argument that has a universal premise and a particular conclusion
“There is no scientific explanation for this person’s ability to predict the future, therefore they must not really have that ability.”
Existential fallacy
“There have been no reported cases of this particular brand of car having any serious mechanical issues, therefore it is a reliable car.”
Existential fallacy
“There is no evidence that this new investment opportunity is legitimate, therefore it is not a good idea to invest in it.”
Existential fallacy
“There is no evidence that this new diet will actually help me lose weight, therefore I shouldn’t bother trying it.”
Existential fallacy
assuming that a compromise between two positions is always correct
Argument to moderation
Argument to moderation
assuming that a compromise between two positions is always correct
“Moderate exercise is good for your health, so exercising for hours on end every day must be even better.”
Argument to moderation
“Eating a little bit of junk food is okay, so eating junk food all the time must be fine too.”
Argument to moderation
“Moderate drinking is good for your health, so drinking heavily every day must be even better.”
Argument to moderation
improperly rejecting a claim for being imprecise
Continuum Fallacy
Continuum Fallacy
improperly rejecting a claim for being imprecise
“Since there are different levels of morality, and some actions are more moral than others, there must not be any absolute moral truths.”
Continuum Fallacy
“Since there are different levels of intelligence, and some people are more intelligent than others, there must not be any objective measure of intelligence.”
Continuum Fallacy
“Since there are different levels of cleanliness, and some people are more fastidious about cleanliness than others, there must not be any objective standard of cleanliness.”
Continuum Fallacy
“Since there are different levels of attractiveness, and some people are more attractive than others, there must not be any objective standard of beauty.”
Continuum Fallacy
“Since there are different levels of success, and some people are more successful than others, there must not be any objective standard of success.”
Continuum Fallacy
“Since there are different levels of skill, and some people are more skilled than others, there must not be any objective standard of skill.”
Continuum Fallacy
“Since there are different levels of honesty, and some people are more honest than others, there must not be any objective standard of honesty.”
Continuum Fallacy
defining a term used in an argument in a biased manner (e.g., using “loaded terms”). The person making the argument expects that the listener will accept the provided definition, making the argument difficult to refute
Definist Fallacy
Definist Fallacy
defining a term used in an argument in a biased manner (e.g., using “loaded terms”). The person making the argument expects that the listener will accept the provided definition, making the argument difficult to refute
“Art is the creation of something that is aesthetically pleasing to the senses. Therefore, graffiti is not art because it is not aesthetically pleasing.”
Definist Fallacy
“Love is the feeling of intense attraction and affection for someone. Therefore, platonic love is not real love because it lacks the intense attraction and affection.”
Definist Fallacy
“Success is the achievement of financial wealth and status. Therefore, someone who is not wealthy or successful in the traditional sense cannot be considered successful.”
Definist Fallacy
“Beauty is the possession of physical features that conform to societal standards of attractiveness. Therefore, someone who does not conform to these standards cannot be considered beautiful.”
Definist Fallacy
arguing that, because something is so incredible or amazing, it must be the result of superior, divine, alien or paranormal agency
Divine Fallacy
Divine Fallacy
arguing that, because something is so incredible or amazing, it must be the result of superior, divine, alien or paranormal agency
“God must exist because we can’t explain the origin of the universe or certain phenomena through science.”
Divine Fallacy
God must have revealed certain truths to a select group of people, and anyone who does not accept these truths is wrong.”
Divine Fallacy
“God must have a purpose for everything that happens, even tragedies and suffering.”
Divine Fallacy
“God must exist because the complexity and beauty of the natural world cannot be explained by science.”
Divine Fallacy
a term or phrase that is used in an argument in a way that is not clear or that has multiple meanings, which can lead to confusion or logical fallacies. This can occur when the term or phrase is used in different ways within the same argument, or when it is not clearly defined or explained in the context of the argument.
Ambiguous Middle Term
Ambiguous Middle Term
a term or phrase that is used in an argument in a way that is not clear or that has multiple meanings, which can lead to confusion or logical fallacies. This can occur when the term or phrase is used in different ways within the same argument, or when it is not clearly defined or explained in the context of the argument.
“Eating vegetables is good for your health because they contain vitamins and minerals, and candy also has vitamins and minerals, so candy is good for your health.”
Ambiguous Middle Term
“We should buy this car because it has good gas mileage and a comfortable interior, and it’s also cheap. So it must be a good deal.”
Ambiguous Middle Term
“I can’t go to the park today because I have homework and also because I’m sick. So I can’t go to the park.”
Ambiguous Middle Term
“I’m not allowed to watch TV because my parents said so, and they also said I can’t stay up past my bedtime. So I can’t watch TV.”
Ambiguous Middle Term
“We should hire this candidate because they have excellent communication skills and a strong work ethic, and they also have a high level of education. Therefore, they must be the best fit for the role.”
Ambiguous Middle Term
“We should implement this new policy because it will increase efficiency and productivity, and it will also improve morale. Therefore, it must be the best course of action.”
Ambiguous Middle Term
changing the meaning of a word when an objection is raised.
Definitional Retreat
Definitional Retreat
changing the meaning of a word when an objection is raised.
We can’t consider this candidate for the role because they don’t have a degree in the field. However, their extensive experience and proven track record of success in the industry should be enough to qualify them for the position.”
Definitional Retreat - (This argument uses a narrow definition of qualification (having a degree) and then retreats from this definition by suggesting that other factors (experience and success) should also be considered.)
“We can’t allow employees to work from home because it would be too difficult to monitor their productivity. However, we could consider offering flexible scheduling or allowing employees to work from home on a trial basis to see how it goes.”
Definitional Retreat - This argument uses a narrow definition of work arrangements (allowing employees to work from home is not possible) and then retreats from this definition by suggesting that other options (flexible scheduling or a trial period) could be considered.)
“We can’t offer a salary increase to all employees because it would be too expensive. However, we could consider offering performance-based bonuses or salary increases to top performers.”
Definitional Retreat - (This argument uses a narrow definition of salary adjustments (a general increase is not possible) and then retreats from this definition by suggesting that other options (bonuses or targeted increases) could be considered.)
“We can’t allow employees to take unlimited vacation time because it would disrupt the workflow. However, we could consider offering additional vacation days or allowing employees to roll over unused
Definitional Retreat
“I can’t play with my toys because it’s time for bed. But I can play with them tomorrow when it’s not bedtime.”
Definitional Retreat - (This argument uses a narrow definition of when it is acceptable to play with toys (not during bedtime) and then retreats from this definition by suggesting that it is acceptable at other times.)
“I can’t eat cookies because they have sugar in them. But I can eat vegetables because they don’t have sugar.”
Definitional Retreat - (This argument uses a narrow definition of what is acceptable to eat (foods without sugar) and then retreats from this definition by suggesting that it is acceptable to eat certain foods that do contain sugar.)
“I can’t stay up late because it’s past my bedtime. But I can stay up late on special occasions like birthdays or holidays.”
Definitional Retreat - (This argument uses a narrow definition of when it is acceptable to stay up late (not past bedtime) and then retreats from this definition by suggesting that it is acceptable on certain occasions.)
occurs when someone attacks the character or credibility of their opponent, rather than addressing the substance of their argument.
Ad Hominem
Ad Hominem
occurs when someone attacks the character or credibility of their opponent, rather than addressing the substance of their argument.
“We can’t consider this candidate for the role because they have a criminal record”
Ad Hominem
“We can’t trust the research presented by this team because they have a history of publishing flawed studies.
Ad Hominem
“We can’t accept this proposal because it was presented by a competitor.
Ad Hominem
“We can’t consider this employee for a promotion because they have been involved in several conflicts with their coworkers.
Ad Hominem
occurs when someone introduces a new topic or piece of information that is unrelated to the argument at hand, in an attempt to distract or mislead their audience. This is a fallacy because the new topic or information is not relevant to the argument being made, and introducing it serves to divert attention away from the main issue being discussed.
Red Herring
Red Herring
occurs when someone introduces a new topic or piece of information that is unrelated to the argument at hand, in an attempt to distract or mislead their audience. This is a fallacy because the new topic or information is not relevant to the argument being made, and introducing it serves to divert attention away from the main issue being discussed.
“We can’t offer a salary increase to all employees because it would be too expensive. However, employee retention and morale are important factors that should be considered.”
Red Herring
“We can’t allow employees to work from home because it would be too difficult to monitor their productivity. However, studies have shown that remote work can lead to increased job satisfaction and retention rates.”
Red Herring