factors affecting referendum success Flashcards
Some of the key factors affecting the success of a referendum are
- whether there is bipartisan support for the proposal
- whether the voters themselves are seeking change
- the nature of the proposal
- education about the proposal.
Bipartisan support
- Bipartisan support refers to approval from two or more political parties, usually the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Liberal Party.
- The success of a referendum often depends on support from major political parties at both Commonwealth and state levels.
- If the opposition does not agree with the proposed change, they may lead a ‘no’ campaign, resulting in strongly argued opposing campaigns for ‘yes’ and ‘no.’
- Many voters lack understanding of the Constitution and the nature of the change, leading them to seek guidance from their preferred political party.
- If a voter’s preferred party supports the change, they may be more inclined to vote yes.
- In the 1951 referendum regarding the Communist Party, the ALP campaigned against the change, leading to its failure.
- Conversely, the 1967 referendum had bipartisan support, and the absence of a ‘no’ case minimized arguments and disunity.
- A referendum vote may be influenced by state premiers urging a ‘no’ vote, as majority support in at least four states is needed.
- State-level political parties can also oppose a proposal, prioritising state interests over national interests, especially if no benefits are provided to the state or its residents.
Whether voters are seeking change
- A factor affecting the success of a referendum is whether it is supported by the people (known as ‘people’s ownership’) or driven by the government.
- If voters are actively promoting the change, they may be more inclined to vote ‘yes.’
- The 1967 referendum is an example of a ‘people’s movement,’ driven by advocacy from First Nations people and support from some non-Indigenous Australians.
- When the government drives the change, voters may be more cautious due to a general distrust of politicians.
- Voters often prefer to maintain the status quo if they are concerned that changes may benefit only those advocating for them rather than the broader public.
- Public support for a change may diminish as the referendum date approaches, even if initial support was high.
- In the 1999 referendum on becoming a republic, support was initially strong, but the proposal ultimately failed.
- Factors influencing the failure of the 1999 referendum included lack of bipartisan support and confusion over the information provided, which was perceived as complex and unclear.
The nature of the proposal
- The success of a referendum can be influenced by how straightforward and accessible the proposed change is.
- Complex or difficult-to-understand questions may lead voters to feel confused, making them more likely to vote ‘no’ if public support is lacking.
- Conversely, clear and sensible proposals are more likely to receive a ‘yes’ vote from the public.
- In the 1988 referendum, four questions were posed, and none passed.
- One proposal aimed to guarantee the right to vote and ensure fair elections, receiving only 38% support.
- Another proposal to elect both the House of Representatives and the Senate for four-year terms garnered only 33% support.
- The failure of these proposals was partly attributed to their complexity and focus on the mechanics of voting and elections.
- There is limited public knowledge about the Australian Constitution and its electoral mechanisms, which may have led to a lack of understanding and interest among voters.
- Presenting four questions may have confused or overwhelmed voters, contributing to the rejection of the proposals.
Education about the proposal
- The Australian Constitution is seldom analyzed in mainstream media, leading to low public awareness and understanding of it.
- This lack of knowledge creates challenges for voters when considering changes to the Constitution.
- Successful referendums often rely on strong information and education campaigns that explain the details and need for change clearly.
- Simple messaging is crucial to communicate the proposed changes effectively.
- Educational materials, like booklets sent to voters, should include straightforward explanations of government structures and the implications of the proposed changes, along with clear ‘yes’ and ‘no’ arguments.
- Strong communication is increasingly important due to the rise of social media and the potential spread of misinformation.
- Past referendums may have failed not due to public reluctance for change, but because of inadequate information for voters to understand the proposals fully.
- The 1999 referendum on a republic faced criticism for its information booklet, which left unanswered questions and offered only one model for a president, limiting voter choice.
- Some opposing voices raised irrelevant concerns about potential changes to the flag or public holidays, adding confusion.
- In contrast, the 1967 referendum regarding First Nations people was effective because it presented a simple and clear rationale for change, making it accessible to a broader audience.
Whether there
is bipartisan
support for
the proposal
Bipartisan support refers to support or approval by two or more political parties;
in Australia, it usually means support from the two major political parties.
* A referendum is most likely to succeed if it has the support of all major
political parties at Commonwealth and state levels. If the opposition leads a
‘no’ campaign, then voters may be faced with two strong opposing campaigns.
Voters may also look to guidance from their preferred political parties.
* The position of the state premiers and political parties may also influence
voters’ views, which can then affect whether the majority of voters in the
majority of states vote ‘yes’.
* The 1999 referendum demonstrates the impact on the vote if there is a strong
‘no’ case, as opposed to the 1967 referendum, where a formal argument for a ‘no
vote’ was never presented to voters.
Whether
the voters
themselves
are seeking
change
The success of any referendum proposal depends on whether the people
themselves support and ‘own’ the change, or whether it is owned and
supported by the government itself.
* If voters themselves are driving the change, then there may be a greater
willingness to vote ‘yes’. For example, the 1967 referendum was seen to be a
‘people’s movement’, in that it was driven by the people after decades of First
Nations people agitating against discrimination and unfair treatment, as well
as advocacy by some non-Indigenous people.
* In contrast, if the government itself is owning or driving the change, voters
may be more cautious. If the proposal involves an increase in Commonwealth
power, the states might encourage the voters in their state to vote ‘no’.
* There may be a mistrust of politicians, where voters perceive that they are
only seeking to reform the Constitution to enhance their own power.
The nature of
the proposal
The nature of the proposal – whether it is simple and straightforward, or
complex – can also impact on success.
* The double majority provision in the Constitution is difficult to achieve, and
the successful changes to the Constitution have been limited to proposals
where there is overwhelming public support. These have been noncontroversial in nature, such as allowing people in the territories to vote in
referendums, and having judges in the federal courts, including the High
Court, retire at the age of 70 (1977 referendum). The proposals that have
succeeded have generally been straightforward in nature.
* Where multiple options for change are debated in the media, the ‘yes’ vote
can be lost because the majority of voters decide to vote ‘no’ if they prefer an
alternative model that has been presented by the ‘no’ case.
Education
about the
proposal
The Australian Constitution is rarely the subject of mainstream media
analysis, which creates challenges when voters are contemplating change.
* A strong education campaign in the lead-up to the referendum is required,
with strong messaging about the need for change. The booklet sent out must
also be clear and straightforward.
* The Commonwealth funds an education program on the arguments for and
against the proposal to ensure that voters can make an informed choice.
* The booklet for the 1999 referendum was seen by some as difficult to
understand; this contrasts with the 1967 referendum, which contained a clear
message.
* Given the lack of awareness about the Constitution, public debate can
sometimes be sidetracked by irrelevant issues that serve only to confuse
voters
