F1: Probabilistic Model Flashcards
In project management, one of the most difficult tasks is estimating the time required to complete a task project.
Schedule Management
A statistical method that can be used to create more accurate estimates. In short, it is a schedule that takes into account the uncertainty of the future
Probabilistic time
This type of schedule is beneficial because it can help project managers understand the risks of a project and plan for them accordingly. It is a recommended practice for all project managers, and it is a required skill for the Project Management Professional (PMP) certification
Probabilistic time
When to use the probabilistic time technique?
This technique is used when there is uncertainty about the project’s duration.
Also, this technique is used to generate a range of possible durations for a project, based on its past performance.
As well, this technique is often used in project management to generate a range of possible project durations and to help identify risks and opportunities as it is a valuable tool for making decisions about how to allocate resources and manage a project.
This is based on the ____ ________, which is a probability distribution that is used to model the variability of a project’s duration.
Beta distribution
It is a method under Project Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) that predicts and estimates the acvomplishment duration of events or activities in operations by an approach called
Probabilistic Time, Three-time estimates
Any project manager worth their salt knows that one of the most important aspects of their job is ________ _ _______. And not just any ________ – a _______ that is realistic and achievable. This can be a difficult task, as there are so many variables to consider.
Creating a schedule
One way to create a schedule that takes into account all of the necessary variables is to use a technique called a ___________ _____ _______.
This type of scheduling takes into account the inherent uncertainty in any project and uses methods such as Monte Carlo simulations to create a schedule that is as accurate as possible.
Probabilistic time schedule
A __________ ________ is a time-phased schedule that shows the probability of completion for each activity. The schedule is based on the estimated duration of each activity and the probability that the activity will be completed on time.
Probabilistic schedule
The estimated duration of each activity is calculated using the _____-____ ______ ________. This technique uses the most likely time, the optimistic time, and the pessimistic time to calculate the estimated duration
Three-point estimate technique
The probability of completion for each activity is calculated using the ____ _________ _________. This distribution is used to calculate the probability that an activity will be completed within a certain time period
Beta probability distribution
_________ project management is an approach that uses statistical models to predict the outcome of a project.
__________ project management is an approach that uses a single sequence of events to determine the outcome of a project
Probabilistic
Deterministic
In general, __________ scheduling is used for smaller projects with less uncertainty, while __________ scheduling is used for larger projects with more uncertainty.
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Considering that a ___________ schedule is a type of schedule that uses probability to account for uncertainty in the project. It means that instead of using a single estimate for each task, you use a range of estimates.
This range is based on the degree of uncertainty for each task.
Probabilistic
The benefits of using a probabilistic schedule are that it can help you:
• Anticipate problems early
• Make more realistic plans
• Reduce the impact of problems when they do occur
• Improve communication with stakeholders by giving clear and key schedule documentation
•Probabilistic times can help identify risks early on in the project
•They can provide a more accurate estimate of the project duration
•Can help project managers better understand the risks involved in a project.
