Exam Review Flashcards
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)
Mutual assured destruction is the concept that both the attacker and defender have second strike capabilities in the event of a nuclear attack, through means of the Nuclear triad (Nuclear submarines, Bomber planes, Inter continental missiles) which guarantees the destruction of both sides.
Moral Hazard
the idea that someone is more likely to accept risk when they know they are not the ones who will have to face the consequences of the taken risk.
Tragedy of the commons
Created by Garret Hardin, The Tragedy of The Commons is an interesting concept. The idea is that without regulations or mechanisms in place to prevent a resource from being over-consumed, individuals will exploit the resource without regard to how it will effect others, and eventually themselves. An example of a common resource being over-consumed is species of fish in the ocean.
Marches of folly
Marches of folly happen when a group or leader follows or creates policies/decisions that are counter productive or against their self interests. An example of a march of folly in popular historical stories is the Trojan horse being allowed to enter Troy despite warnings and signs that it was a deadly trick.
The boiling Frog
The boiling frog is a metaphor and goes as follows, if you put a frog in boiling water it would immediately leap away from the danger, but if you place a frog in cool water and allow it to boil slowly, the frog will not notice the increasing temperatures until it is too late and the frog dies. This metaphor is commonly used in relation to global warming and world leaders refusing to take action or acknowledge what seems to be impending doom.
Cassandra
A tale originating from Greek Mythology Cassandra, daughter of the king of Troy Priam, Foresaw/predicted the destruction of the city Troy upon the arrival of the Trojan horse. Cassandra warned others of the danger that would follow if they allowed the Trojan horse into Troy, she was ignored and soon after the Trojan horse entered the city, Troy collapsed. A Cassandra in current times could look exactly like the Cassandra in the story of the Trojan horse, warning others of imminent danger down their course of action, but to no avail, ignored
J-Curves
When a new policy is introduced, there will be difficult short-term costs to overcome, but once the short-term costs have been surpassed the long-term effects will outweigh the short-term. In some cases politicians do not make new policies because of the fear of how the short-term effects may damage their administration, despite the potential positive long-term effects.
Swiss cheese model
The Swiss cheese model is simple, In all layers of a defence there will be holes, like how Swiss cheese has holes, but when you add more layers of defense each hole will eventually covered, just like how putting a slice of Swiss cheese behind another would cover the previous slices holes. When a threat attempts to pass through holes in the cheese it will be mitigated by at least one layer before reaching it’s destination. More layers of defence (cheese) to cover holes = smaller threat
Independent and dependent variables
Independent variables influence dependent variables. This means that the dependent variable cannot change without the independent variable changing. An example of this could be a flowers health (the dependent variable) not changing unless the amount of sun light (independent variable) it gets changes.
Paradox of preparedness
The paradox of preparedness is the thought that you did not need to prepare for something as much as you did because there wasn’t much to prepare for after all, but, if you did not prepare as much as you did you would have wished you prepared more.
Wooden headed
Wooden headedness is when you approach an issue with preconceived notions, out of ignorance. Someone who is wooden headed cannot understand a situation for what it truly is.
Banality of evil
The idea in banality of evil is that, people who do commit horrible actions and usually normal people who do not resemble the action they have committed
The Nuclear Triad
The nuclear triad is nuclear Submarines, bomber planes, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The purpose of the nuclear triad is to guarantee second strike capabilities.
Counter force and Counter Value
Counter force is when you aim to destroy another countries nuclear capacities/capabilities. Aiming for missile silos, submarines, bomber planes, etc. When using counter force there is not as many casualties as using counter value, and cultural aspects remain unharmed. Counter value is when a countries capital city is targeted, its aiming mainly at population centres. With counter value there is more civilian casualties than counter force, and there is the destruction of culture, very de-moralising
The Butterfly effect
A small change in one location/ dimension can result in a much larger change in another.
Confirmation Bias
is the tendency of people to favour information that confirms or strengthens their beliefs or values and is difficult to dislodge once affirmed. Confirmation bias is an example of a cognitive bias.
Fox vs. hedgehog
The fox and the hedgehog are popular metaphors for two different styles of thinking[ii]. The fox is more diffuse, with a breadth of knowledge and the ability to use multiple frameworks to understand the world. The hedgehog is more focused, with deep knowledge of one thing, using a single idea or frame of reference.
The Dunning-Kruger effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skill in a certain area causes them to overestimate their own competence. By contrast, this effect also drives those who excel in a given area to think the task is simple for everyone, leading them to underestimate their abilities.
What are the Three types of questions?
Descriptive: What happened?
Analytical: Why did it happen?
Normative: Is it good or bad? Who benefits and who suffers?
What was the league of Nations?
What is the analytical tool box? What were Allisons conceptual models?
What are the levels of analysis
Micro, Mezzo, Macro or Individual, state, System.
What year did the Cuban Missile crisis happen?
1962
What defines a crisis?
Threat, Surprise, Time constraint
Out of the available options, which solution did Kennedy and Excomm think was best to deal with the missile crisis, and which decision model best explains the decision?
Naval blockade, and Rational model. National interest, he and the commitee were rational and unitary
What is the Bureaucratic model of decision making?
Decision-making is influenced by internal bureaucratic politics and the competition for resources, power, and influence among government agencies and individuals.
Additionally: Decisions may be the result of bargaining, compromise, and negotiation among various government actors. Different agencies and individuals have their own interests, and decisions may not always be rational or consistent.
What is the Rational Model of decision making?
Decision-makers are rational actors who carefully and systematically analyze all available information, evaluate alternative courses of action, and choose the option that maximizes their goals or objectives
Additionally: This model assumes that decision-makers have complete information, make logical calculations, and act in a way that maximizes their interests. It contrasts with the other models by emphasizing a more rational and systematic decision-making process
What is the organizational model of decision making =
Decision-making is shaped by standard operating procedures, routines, and standard ways of doing things within organizations. Organizations tend to follow established patterns and processes.
Additionally: Decisions are often a product of organizational behavior and may not always be the result of careful analysis or consideration of all available options. Standard operating procedures and established routines can influence decision outcomes. Not fully rational.
What are standard operating procedures?
Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are documented, step-by-step instructions that describe how to carry out routine and repetitive tasks within an organization. SOPs serve as a set of guidelines or rules that help ensure consistency, efficiency, and quality in various processes. These procedures are common in industries such as manufacturing, healthcare, aviation, and many others where standardized processes are crucial for safety, compliance, and overall effectiveness.
What is the garbage can model of decision making?
Bounded rationality:
match problem with
most fitting SOP. If we problematize the connection between
problems and solutions,
we lose rationality. Argument: in many
decision environments
organizations pair
problems and solutions
randomly. garbage can
Give an Example of Path dependency?
The CIA. Originally made to deal with challenges during the Cold War, but failed when deal with challenges caused by 9/11.
Give an example of the organizational model?
Nagasaki. Originally Nagasaki was not a target for the Nuclear bomb but was added last minute as a backup. Once bomber planes took-off they could not return until they dropped their bomb, but due to bad weather the Enola Gay could not reach the original intended target and so Nagasaki was bombed instead. Visibility SOP, Drop bomb in the ocean SOP, these are airforces SOPs so nobody is actually making these decisions.
What are the three conditions for something to be considered folly?
The chosen policy is counter productive and is understood as such at
the time, Alternative policy choices are available, The decision is made by a group and over more than one political
life-span
Who was a Cassandra during the Vietnam war?
Daniel Ellsberg
What is a metaphor
Metaphor: by definition,
giving meaning to a concept
by equating it with something
that comes from another
domain
What are the three cognitive models?
Clinical psychology, cognitive psychology, social psychology.
What is cognitive psychology
Cognitive psychology focuses on understanding mental processes such as perception, memory, reasoning, problem-solving, and decision-making. When applied to political science, it provides insights into how individuals acquire, process, store, and use information related to political matters.
What is the prospect theory?
provides a framework for understanding how individuals evaluate and make choices under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Prospect theory deviates from classical economic models by demonstrating that people do not always make decisions based on expected utility but are influenced by perceptions of gains and losses relative to a reference point.
Additionally: we tend to be
more risk averse in the
domain of gains and more
risk acceptant in the
domain of losses
Example: Operation Eagle claw in Iran and Jimmy Carter
What is group think?
Group think is a phenomenon where people tend to confirm with group decisions to avoid feeling outcast, leading to errors in decision making. the group picks the
option that maximizes
consensus
Deal and Kennedy (1982)
Work hard, Play hard culture (Low-risk, rapid feedback), Process culture (Slow feedback Low-risk), Tough guy macho culture (High-risk, rapid feedback) Bet the company culture (Slow feedback high-risk)
Numerical example
80% example, students become teachers and their students will retain 64% of the original 80%, and so on. Less and Less knowledge is passed on
When did the Great Chinese Famine Happen
1959-1961
What is famine
Food is distributed in
a way that starves
certain segments of
the population
* Famine is almost
always political
* Politics (Laswell):
politics is the process
through which we
decide who gets
what, when and how.
* Food distribution:
deeply political
What are aspects of intersectionality
Gender, Race/ethnicity, Class, Abilities, Sexual orientation, Nationality.
What are regulation models
This model contrasts with the more traditional “policy agenda” or “policy routine” models. The fire alarm model suggests that governments often do not proactively address problems but instead respond to issues when “alarms” are raised by citizens or interest groups.
What is game theory?
An analytical framework that
models (often mathematically)
social interactions among
competing actors
What is the prisoners dilemma
What is deterrance
Deterrence, in political science and international relations, refers to the use of threats or the demonstration of military, economic, or political power to prevent an adversary from taking a particular action. The goal of deterrence is to discourage potential aggressors by convincing them that the costs or consequences of their actions would outweigh any potential benefits.
