Exam Questions 2022: Voting Behaviour Flashcards
Give three recency (short-term) factors that influence the way people vote in US elections
- Incumbency - e.g. 96% re-election rate, in Congress, in 2020 - they have an established support and donor base - though incumbency does not guarantee re-election - Bill Nelson was defeated irrespective of the $118 million spent during campaign.
- Valence Issues - ‘rally around the flag’ - e.g. Bush’s approval rates went up to 90% after 9/11 - successful in 2004 election - declined following Hurricane Katrina to 38% by Nov. 2005
- Political adverts - attack candidates rather than parties - e.g. Obama’s ‘remember’ advert lauded his commitment to renewable energy and attacked Mitt Romney by claiming he was ‘in the pocket’ of large oil companies.
What percentage of African-Americans and Hispanics voted Democrats in 2020?
African-Americans - 87%
Hispanics - 65%
Which parties are typically favoured by women and men respectively?
Women - Dems - 57% favoured Biden in 2020
Men - GOP - 63% favoured Trump in 2020
Which religious group typically support the Republican party?
White evangelicals - 76% supported Trump in 2020 - regardless of Trump’s waver from strict Christian marriage traditions - policy platform more relevant consideration than personality?
Non-religious individuals tend to favour which party?
Democratic party - 65% of non-religious people favoured Biden in 2020.
How does wealth influence voting behaviour in US elections?
Under $50,000 - 55% supported Biden (2020)
Over $100,000- 57% supported Trump (2020)
How does age affect voting behaviour?
Under 30 - 60% supported Biden
Over 65 - 52% supported Trump
Give some data regarding the variation in voting behaviour on the basis of political philosophy.
85% of self-proclaimed conservatives supported Trump.
89% of self-proclaimed liberals supported Biden
What percentage of homosexual individuals voted Democrat in 2020?
64% of homosexuals supported Biden in 2020.
How does geography influence voting behaviour?
60% of those in a town with more than 50,000 people supported the Democratic party.
57% of ‘small town’ folk voted Republican.
How could the rational theory be used to compare the voting behaviour of the US and UK electorates regarding ethnicity?
US: - African-Americans largely favour the Democratic party - rose from 88% in 2004 to 94% in 2008 - possibility of the first African-American president.
UK: - BAME individuals typically favour the Labour party - possibly due to Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech in 1968 - plagued the Con. party as being ‘anti-minority’.
How could the rational theory be used to compare the voting behaviour of the US and UK electorates regarding age.
US: those over 65 typically favour the republican party - 53% in 2016 - possibly due to the more individualistic nature of a person with children, who also have children - the prioritise shifts to favour the family rather than society as a whole.
UK: - crossover point at which voting Conservative becomes more likely is 39 - also due to the more individualistic mindset that comes with family.
How could the rational theory be used to compare the voting behaviour of the electorates in the US and UK regarding gender?
US: - Typically women support the Democratic party - 54% of women voted Clinton in 2016 - possibility of the first female president - Trump’s flagrant remarks about women in his ‘October surprise’.
UK: - originally said to have voted Conservative - 1970 election was said to have been swung by the ‘housewives’ - though now the split it less so - 44% of women voted Con in 2019.
In 2016, what percentage of males voted Republican compared to how many women voted Clinton?
52% of males supported Trump.
54% of women voted Clinton.
Possibly due to Clinton potentially being the first female P. And due to Trump’s ‘October surprise’.
What percentage of African-Americans supported the Democratic party in 2016?
89% of African-Americans voted Clinton in 2016. Down from 94% in 2008.
Describe the trend in Hispanic voters swinging to the Republicans.
Hispanics supporting Republican has dropped from 43% in 2004 to 28% in 2016.
How did those in the ‘Rust-belt’ vote in 2016?
Blue-collar, working class people from the region found Trump appealing - allowing him to gather 86 EC votes from the region.
How did education influence voting behaviour in 2016?
71% of non-college, white males voted Trump compared to 23% for Clinton.
How did geography influence voting behaviour in 2016?
Republicans secured a 27% majority in small towns e.g. Wayne County - 99% White - 14% below poverty level - 71% vote Trump.
How did religion influence voting behaviour in 2016?
56% of those who said they attended a religious ceremony weekly voted Republican
62% of those who said they rarely attended a religious ceremony voted Democrat.
What are primacy factors in relation to voting behaviour?
Long-term factors i.e. those that remain roughly the same regardless of the election. E.g. geography, class, age, religion, ethnicity.
What are recency factors?
Short-term factors i.e. those that only exist for the one election. E.g. personality of the candidates, valence issues or campaign methodology.
What is the effect of recency factors?
They capture ‘floating voters’ (those who are uncommitted to a party) and influence the way they vote.
How did Jews vote in the 2012 election?
69% of Jewish people voted Democrat. Perhaps as they see themselves as a minority and therefore feel the Democratic party will best represent their interests.
