exam 3

Question 1

definition of groupthink

Answer 1

excessive concurrence seeking

Question 2

symptoms of groupthink

Answer 2

*overestimation of group power and morality
*closed mindedness which results in an incomplete survey of information or consequences
*pressure toward uniformity

Question 3

causes of groupthink

Answer 3

*collegiality
*insulation
*no trade or impartial leadership
*lack of clear decision making methods

Question 4

what are Irving Janis’ fiascos that are examples of groupthink

Answer 4

*peral harbor
*Vietnam
*watergate
*bay of pigs

Question 5

solutions of groupthink

Answer 5

*devils advocate system
*delphi approach (focus on anonymity, separate the person speaking from what they are saying)

Question 6

group polarization

Answer 6

the group chooses a more extreme option than any individual would have chosen

Question 7

causes of globalization

Answer 7

*advances in tech (media, communication, transportation)
*increased trade and political integration

Question 8

mechanisms of group polarization/choice shift

Answer 8

•increased number of persuasive arguments
•social desirability
•diffusion of responsibility

Question 9

globalization

Answer 9

•the world shrinking from a size small to medium
•integration of markets, information networks, and cultures. barriers between states disappearing

Question 10

consequences of globalization

Answer 10

economic: greater interdependence on the stock markets
political: decline of the state
cultural: globalism vs. tribalism, are two cultures mixing going to be good or spark conflict

Question 11

waves of globalization

Answer 11

1. ancient trade in silk and spices
2. age of discovery (imperialism, 15th to 17th century)
3. industrialization (railroads, steamships, 1800 to WW1)
4. late 20th century (internet, dramatic trade expansion)

Question 12

part of the global north

Answer 12

•north america
•europe and former USSR
•japan

Question 13

part of global south

Answer 13

•latin america
•africa and middle east
•much of asia

Question 14

+/- of using GDP per capita as a measure of economic development

Answer 14

advantages: divided by population
disadvantages: doesn’t tell you how much wealth is distributed per person

Question 15

import substitution (dev strat)

Answer 15

•development of local industries to produce items that country had been importing
•may be useful in development
•contradicts comparative advantage

Question 16

export led growth (dev strat)

Answer 16

•development of local industries that can compete in the world economy
•relies on the principal of comparative advantage
•popular bin NICs
•involves risks if exports are subject to sudden price fluctuations

Question 17

investment in human capital (dev strat)

Answer 17

investment in education and healthcare, gender/racial equity

Question 18

concentrating capital in manufacturing (dev strat)

Answer 18

•may require tariffs/subsidies to protect industries
•required a middle class to buy goods at home
•foreign investment/loans may help
•begin with low capital industries

Question 19

bilateral vs. multilateral foreign assistance

Answer 19

•contribution to the world bank = multi
•one country helping another = bi

Question 20

grants vs. credits foreign assistance

Answer 20

•grants: giving you the money, you don’t have to pay it back with strings attached, used for a specific thing
•credits: you can have a certain amount of money but they have to spend it on your goods

Question 21

what are the 3 models of foreign aid

Answer 21

1. disaster relief approach (in response to a certain event, short term)
2. missionary model (long term, but may make a country too dependent)
3. oxfam model (long term, focuses on making a country self sufficient)

Question 22

hard power vs. soft power

Answer 22

•hard power is typically thought of as more coercive and less subtle
•soft power is often employed in the context of peacefully achieving foreign policy

Question 23

main purposes of the UN

Answer 23

•maintain international peace and security to avoid another WW2
•promote human rights and social/economic development by harmonizing the actions of nations

Question 24

UN security council actions that fall under chapter 6

Answer 24

may make recommendations on the peaceful settlement of disputes

Question 25

UN security council actions that fall under chapter 7

Answer 25

may call on member states to implement sanctions or force

Question 26

UN security council actions that fall under chapter 6.5

Answer 26

peacekeeping operations

Question 27

differences between national law and international law

Answer 27

•international law comes from multiple sources, have no authoritative body so enforcement is handlers with the ideas of reciprocity and international norms •national law is sourced from designated institutions like legislations, disputes are settled by a judiciary, and enforcement is handled by police force of the executive

Question 28

4 sources of international law

Answer 28

1. treaties (most important source, formally written documents that lay out permissible and impermissible behavior between states, only count for states who sign and ratify, binding on successor governments, may have escape clause) 2. customs (well established and normal ways in which states interact, accepted by states as law) 3. general principles of law (juridical principles common to most or all legal systems) 4. legal scholarship (most ambiguous, written arguments by judges and lawyers around the world)

Question 29

what are conditions favoring norm violations

Answer 29

•the norms conflict with state interests and the violation can be justified because of self defense •the norm is ambiguous •the situation justifies violence •due to constraint challenging leadership styles

Question 30

how does discounting play into the structure of environmental problems vs. politicians incentives

Answer 30

•people prefer short term benefits and long term costs •environmental challenges require the opposite of this, where you need to do costs up front in the short term and won’t see benefits till farther down the road

Question 31

common goods

Answer 31

•non-excludable/rivalrous •principle concern: not depleting the resources •think of tragedy of the commons •possible solutions include enclosure (chopping up and assigning land) •prisoners dilemma

Question 32

public goods

Answer 32

•non-reason valorous/non-excludable •principle concern: providing the hood •problems with free riders

Question 33

national vs. human security

Answer 33

•national security would be using the military to protect against threats, more traditional concept •human security has to do with protecting people from disease, poverty, and shopping climate change

Question 34

factors that make power transportation more violent

Answer 34

•no tradition of friendship between the two •rapid rising of the challenger •cultural differences between the two •rising power is inflexible •challenger has a radical program •roughly equal power between the two •large gap between distributions of power and benefits

Question 35

situational obstacles to accurate analysis and forecasting

Answer 35

•information overload •incomplete information •ambiguous/conflicting information •planted to deceive you •political pressures to support leaders policies •pressures for timely and certain estimates •bureaucratic compartmentalization and turf battles (each organization doesn’t want to share info with the other)

Question 36

psychological obstacles to accurate analysis and forecasting

Answer 36

•human perception (mindsets are quick to form and hard to change) •bias favoring perception of centralized direction •bias in overestimating our own importance •events we can readily remember are assumed to be more likely •common error in calculating the probability of an outcome •hindsight bias

Question 37

tools for improving analysis/forecasting

Answer 37

•peer review •analysis of competing hypotheses •thinking backwards (2 years from now, an implausible event has happened, how could this be) •crystal ball (perfect source told you you’re key assumption is wrong •role playing •be wary of mirror imaging and simplistic use of history

Question 38

simple scarcity conflict

Answer 38

•conflict caused by environmental degradation •explained and predicted by general structural theories •expect when a state actor rationally calculate their interests in a zero sum game •usually arise over 3 types of resources (river water, fish, agriculturally productive land)

Question 39

group identity conflict

Answer 39

•caused by environmental degradation •explained and predicted by group identity theories •arise from large scale movements of a population due to environmental change •inter group hostility

Question 40

relative deprivation conflicts

Answer 40

•caused by environmental degradation •as societies produce less wealth because of environmental problems citizens will become mad by the widening gap between their actual level of economic achievement and the level they feel they deserve •stark contrast in standard of living

Question 41

torn countries

Answer 41

•leaders wish to pursue bandwagon if strategies and to make their countries member if the west, but the history, culture, and traditions of said country is not western •countries with large numbers of peoples of different civilizations •ex: turkey

Question 42

probabilistic forecasts

Answer 42

•attach a number to the prediction •there is a 60% chance of revolution in Iran within the decade

Question 43

conditional forecasting

Answer 43

•states an explicit condition: if X happens, than Y will •preferred approach of analysts because if you are wrong you can learn where you’re mistaken