Exam 3

Question 1

Connecting

Answer 1

Past theories and evidence —> current theory and evidence —> predictions

Question 2

Converging

Answer 2

Multiple pieces of evidence that lead to current theory

Question 3

Gradual synthesis

Answer 3

Progress occurs as the community of scientists gradually begins to agree that the evidence supports one explanation over another

Question 4

Principle of converging evidence

Answer 4

Support for theories comes about when the preponderance of evidence from many different types of studies point to the same answer

Question 5

Meta-analysis

Answer 5

Statistical method for combining results of many studies

Question 6

File drawer problem

Answer 6

Non significant results are less likely to be published

Question 7

Magic bullet

Answer 7

The (one and only, all purpose) cause of something

Question 8

Multiple causation

Answer 8

When not one but many constructs/variables contribute to a psychological phenomenon

Question 9

Interaction

Answer 9

The joint effect of two or more variables on another variable

Question 10

Uncertainty

Answer 10

Lacking knowledge about which events will occur

Question 11

Heuristic

Answer 11

Informal, intuitive, speculative strategy for making a decision

Question 12

Availability heuristic

Answer 12

Evaluating the probability of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind

Question 13

Representativeness heuristic

Answer 13

Evaluating the probability of an event in terms of how well it represents, or matches, a prototype

Question 14

Base rates

Answer 14

The relative proportion of different groups/classes in the population

Question 15

Conjunction rule

Answer 15

The probability of a conjunction between two events cannot be greater than the probability of one event alone (think red corvette examples he gave)

Question 16

Conjunction fallacy

Answer 16

Incorrect assumption that two or more specific conditions are more likely than one general condition

Question 17

Fallacy

Answer 17

A mistaken belief, especially one based on unsound argument

Question 18

Gambler’s fallacy

Answer 18

The probability of a hit is greater after a long series of misses

Question 19

Hot hand

Answer 19

The probability of a hit is greater after a hit than after a miss

Question 20

Law of large numbers

Answer 20

The more times you run an experiment, the closer the average of the results approximates the expected/population value

Question 21

Expected utility hypothesis (EU)

Answer 21

Optimal decision making is based on an outcomes utility and the probability of it being achieved

Question 22

Framing

Answer 22

The perspective from which an outcome is viewed

Question 23

Risk averse

Answer 23

When framed as a gain, people are risk-averse

Question 24

Risk taking

Answer 24

When framed as a loses, people are risk takers

Question 25

Delay interval

Answer 25

Time between current behavior and availability of future outcome

Question 26

Delay discounting (aka temporal discounting)

Answer 26

Occurs when a future outcome is represented in the present at a marked down value

Question 27

Clinical

Answer 27

Informal, impressionistic, intuitive decision making strategy, may or may not reflect expertise

Question 28

Statistical

Answer 28

Mechanical, formal, algorithmic, mathematical models based on quantitative data

Question 29

Judgmental bootstrapping

Answer 29

The development of a statistical model that assimilates an experts forecasts into it by inferring rules the expert appeared to use in making the forecasts