Exam 2 review Flashcards
What are the factors that influence political opinion formation?
Family, School,Peers, Media
what things are important to consider when making a reliable opinion poll?
- Question-Wording
- Question Sequencing
- An Accurate Sample - which requires that every group of people is represented
- Lower Margin of Error (3% or lower)
- Tell you how they contact people, what questions,s and the sequence of the questions.
what are the 3 types of polling?
-Tracking Polls
- Exit polls
- Deliberative polls
what is tracking polls?
charts rise and fall based on the candidate’s popularity
it gives candidates and campaigns information
what type of election is tracking polls typically used in?
presidential elections
what is an exit poll?
done on election day at random voting locations
what happens with an exit poll?
someone pulls you aside and asks your demographics and which candidate you voted for
Why are exit polls used?
exit polls help the media project the winner
exit polls give us the most accurate demographic information(how people vote)
what is the intent of a deliberative poll?
Find out how people would vote if they were probably informed
what are deliberative polls?
-relatively new
-Expose a large sample of people to issue clusters(different information)
What is the common practice today among survey firms when it comes to asking a presidential approval question?
The common practice today among survey firms is to ask a presidential approval question at the beginning of the poll/survey so that answers to other questions do not impact the presidential approval question.
what did James Madison in Federalist 10 argue for?
argued for the proliferation of interest groups so that no one group could get hegemony over the other groups
what are the direct techniques of interest groups?
Lobbying
*private meetings
*Testifying before U.S congress/state legislatures
*Drafting legislation
*Social Occasions
*providing political information
*supplying nomination suggestions for president and governors
what are the indirect techniques of interest groups?
*using constitutes as lobbyists
*building alliances with other groups
what is the largest interest group in the united states?
AARP
what is a closed primary mean?
only parties voters can vote (closed for outsiders)
what is an open primary election?
open to all parties, can vote for any party without declaring a certain party
is texas an open or closed primary election?
open
what is a run-off election?
when two people tie off in the majority vote of the primary and closed election candidates have a run-off between the two
what is a blanket primary election
*no longer exist because it was ruled unconstitutional
Put different parties on the same ballot and people vote on which one they want office by office and can switch parties between different offices.
what is a jungle/cajun primary election?
Lousiana Uses it
for a particular office in the ballot they list every single candidate; if one candidate gets a majority of the votes…they become the office holder (no general election later)
- if no majority, leads to a runoff (like Mayor Turner did)
- usually take place in the fall; Nov or Dec
what is the runoff primary in Texas?
closed primaries
what is an initiative?
allow citizens to propose Legislation and submit it to popular vote
what is referenda?
allows the legislators to submit proposed Legislation for popular approval
what is a recall election?
allows citizens to remove someone office
what is a primary?
-easier access
-voters tend not to be informed
-the vote is secret
-allow an early/absentee vote
what is a caucus?
-more difficult access
-voters tend to be more informed
-the vote is often not a secret
-more participation
-long voting hours
what is the Texas Two-Step?
Democrats hold both a primary and a caucus when voting on their presidential nominee
(done in Texas 2012 election)
what is the total number of Electoral College votes in the United States?
538 Total Electoral College votes
what is the minimum number of electoral votes needed for a presidential candidate to win the election?
270 electoral votes
How are the number of electoral votes determined for each state?
by the federal representation for each state
what happens to the total number of electoral votes if a 51st state is added?
540
so +2 to the total
who was a faithless elector?
Barbra Lett-Simmons
She did not cast her DC electoral vote in the 2000 election
what are the 3 basic reform ideas for the electoral college?
- abolish the electoral college and elect the president based on the popular vote
- congressional district plan(used by Maine and Nebraska) (out of the 3 most likely)
- keep the college and abolish the electors
4th idea proposed to blend the popular vote nationwide into the electoral college
Not really likely any of these will happen
In the U.S House, reelection rates for incumbents are above what percent in most years?
above 90%
what was the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in the case of Bush v.Gore (2000)?
Supreme Court decided that there is not enough time for recounts so by technicality Bush wins. By popular vote al gore was winning but when electoral votes came in Bush won.
what were the results of the electoral vote for 2016 Hilary Clinton?
Electoral: 232 ( 227 with faithless electors)
what were the results of the electoral vote for 2016 Donald Trump?
Electoral: 306 (304 due to faithless electors)
what were the results of the electoral vote for 2000 AL Gore?
Electoral Vote:266 vptes
what were the results of the electoral vote for 2000 George W. Bush?
Electoral votes:271
Who had the 2000 presidential election based on the popular vote?
AL Gore
Who had the 2016 presidential election based on the popular vote?
Hilary Clinton
Who had the 2020 presidential election based on the popular vote?
Biden
what were the results of the electoral vote for 2020 Biden?
306 electoral votes
what were the results of the electoral vote for 2020 Trump?
232 Electoral votes
what categories did the democratic party win against Republicans according to the 2020 exit poll?
Females
African Americans
African American women
Hispanics
Asians
18-29 year old
30-44 years old
College graduates
Total family income under $100k
Catholics
First-year voters
lives in the city and suburbs
government COVID control was bad
Democrats
Independents
what categories did the Republican party win against the Democrats according to the 2020 exit poll?
males
whites
45-64. year old
65+
no college degree
protestants
total family income 100K and up
white men
republican
Which democrats received faithless electors’ votes in the 2016 presidential election?
Faith Spotted Eagle received faithless electors’ vote from Washington state
Bernie Sanders received a vote from a faithless elector in Hawaii
Which Republican received faithless electors’ votes in the 2016 presidential election?
Kasich and Ron Paul received votes from faithless electors in Texas
what were the key states in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections?
Michigan- biden won by 154,188 votes
Wisconsin-biden won by 20,686 votes
Pennsylvania-biden won by 81,874 votes
Arizona-biden won by 10,457 votes
Georgia-biden won by 11,779 votes
What are the most influential national newspapers in this country?
*New York Times
*Washington post
*Chicago tribune
*Los angels Times
*wall street journal
*USA today
*Christan Science Monitor
As recently as which presidency did reporters submit their questions to the president in writing?
Herbert Hoover(1929-1933)
if your parents are liberal is it likely you are going to be liberal
yes
if you rely on news outlets you are more…..
likely to vote democrat/liberal
what parties do the inner cities usually vote for?
liberal
most conservative states are
Oklahoma, north and south Carolina Dakota Idaho
what is the most reliable polling method?
phone call
is this a good question “How would you rate president biden on scale of 1-10?
good question for polling
what are examples of interest groups?
AARP
NRA
NAACP
LULAC
MALDEF
NOW
The sierra club
what makes an interest group successful?
- Leaders
- Funding
- Members
what is a primary election?
each party gets to nominate their nominee for the office
why was the electoral college created?
it provides the elite with an opportunity to override the will of unreasonable masses “when they vote for someone who is not qualified to be president
how many electoral votes do each state at least have?
3
which states are the only ones who didn’t partake in the winner takes all?
Maine and Nebraska
why is voter turnout so low?
- people say they’re too busy
- difficult to register
- difficult to absentee vote
- the number of elections
- voter attitudes
- weak political parties
7.timing of presidential primaries - the fact that some states are not battleground in the presidential election
What were the blue wall states?
Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan
