exam 2 morgan's study guide notes Flashcards
what is acquiescence bias
People tend to respond to questions with answers they think people want to hear.
what can researchers do to reduce the effects of acquiesence bias
we sometimes want to measure things in the opposite direction
That way, that bias will cancel itself out.
Do surveys usually use open-ended or close-ended questions
close-ended
what is biased wording in survey questions
when questions have cultural or political bias
they can mean different things to different groups of people or be inappropriate questions to ask a certain group
what is unclear wording in survey questions
If the wording is unclear, people can misunderstand the question and have varying interpretations of it
what are leading questions in survey questions
questions that are set up in a way that makes you feel pressured to agree
what is this an example of
“How satisfied are you with your pay and working conditions?”
double-barreled question
what is this an example of
“Would you agree with most Americans that the U.S. should not have withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal?”
leading question
what is a double-barreled question in survey questions
when a question is asking about two different concepts at one time
what is a negatively worded question in survey questions
when questions are phrased in a negative light
the word ‘not’ introduces measurement error because people who read things quickly might skip over the word and miss the whole concept
what are some things people can’t answer?
questions about things too far in the past
automatic habits people might not be aware of
asking them to guess what effect something had on them (self-reporting)
what is this an example of
“It’s not easy to figure out the truth behind political issues.”
negatively worded
what is this an example of
“During the last presidential election, how many hours did you spend per week watching CNN?”
Questions too far in the past
what is this an example of
“How often do you make eye contact in conversations?”
habits people aren’t aware of
what is this an example of
“Did watching the debate make you more supportive of candidate X?”
self-reporting
why do we use multi-item measures
to reduce measurement errors
what are the two different kinds of multiple-item measures
index and scales
how do we use multi-item measures
multiple item measures are averaged together so random errors in each item cancel out
what are the cons of interviews
Possible confounds of interviewer effects (hard to guarantee you treat everyone the same)
They might have a better rapport with men than women and vice versa.
It is more expensive.
What kinds of questions are exceptions to the RAS model; i.e., what questions do most people actually have stored opinions about?
Questions that are exempt from the RAS model are those about presidential support, attitudes about parties, or broadsides on prominent issues like abortion.
Issues that are stable, meaning that your answer will never waver, like abortion.
what are multiple-item measures in scales
concepts that correlate and have the same underlying ideas
what is an example of multiple-item measures in index
voting in the morning or voting at night are virtually the same just at different times
however, if a person says they voted in the morning, you can be sure that they won’t vote at night
therefore, the two cannot correlate
What do polls of the public’s issue opinions measure if people don’t have opinions on those issues stored in memory? Are polls meaningless, then?
Polls are not meaningless; while they may not really measure public opinion, they do measure public response.
what are the three kinds of evidence against the assumption that opinion questions measure stored opinions
opinion instability in panel surveys (people give different answers over time)
question order effects
question framing effects (questions worded in different ways but mean the same thing)
how does a measurement error occur
people aren’t more likely to take their time and give more/careful answers
Do people really “have” opinions, meaning pre-formed opinions stored in their memory, about most political issues?
No, the reality is that when you are asked an opinion question, you come up with the answer quickly by using already stored information you have on the question.
what are interview pros
Higher response rate & completion rate, and lower measurement error.
what are response rates
how many people you try getting into the survey that actually participate
how can you include experiments in a self-administered survey online
by changing question order or wording manipulation
media stimuli for media effects
what are the self-administered survey pros
Recruitment can be via other methods (e.g. phone)
cheaper
don’t need to enter data if it’s done online
lower social desirability bias effects
what are the self-administered survey cons
has a lower response rate than interview style, especially internet
what is a longitudinal cross-section survey
Surveys that use Repetition of measurement and asking the questions again over time.
what are the three types of longitudinal surveys
trend
cohor
panel
why are longitudinal cross-section survey important
This is important bc we want to find changes in variables and see how they compare to other measures. Rules out reverse causality but it doesn’t rule out third variable influence.
what is an example of a trend survey
tracking polls
what is a trend survey
When you have studies that look at the same population but use a different random sample from that population every time. Meaning the same people are not chosen everytime, but everyone who is chosen is from the same population.
what is a cohort survey
They are not the same people, but they represent the same specific sub-population, which has changed over time. Focused on a certain group of people to see how they are changing over time.
what is the margin of error for subgroups
The 3% margin of error for the poll overall only applies to results that use the whole sample. Since this result used only 30% of the sample, the margin of error has to be bigger.
what is the margin of error for a candidate
41% approve w/ 3% margin means the real approval rate in the population is 95% likely to be 38%-44%
what is the different between a panel survey and a panel used for sampling
A panel survey measures the same people over a period of time and classifies as a longitudinal survey.
A panel used for sampling is the same people being measured but for different surveys. A group of people previously recruited to participate in future surveys
what is an example of cohort surveys
People born between the same set of years and how they change
what is the margin of error for lead
The margin of error for a lead is double.
So, the same sample size that had a 3% margin for a candidate would have about 6% for the candidate’s lead over the opponent.
If candidate A is 5% ahead of B with a 6% margin of error, we’re 95% sure that reality ranges from B ahead by 1% to A ahead by 11%
E.g., a poll of 1000 people w/a 3% margin
Split into race/ethnicity subgroups
Hispanics 15% = 160 people, 8% margin of error
So if 45% of Hispanics approve of the president in the sample, in population, we’re 95% sure it’s between…
37% and 53%
what are panel surveys
When you Re-measure the exact same people. This allows us to measure change at an individual level. The benefit of this study is that it allows us to identify which individuals are changing.
what is secondary Analysis
An analysis based on data from someone else
Why do election polls need likely voter models?
The population doesn’t exist yet, so you need these models to create an idea of who will vote. Also, if you don’t use likely voter models, you are likely to see a lot of systematic bias.
If a poll report results say “likely voters,” they’re multiplying each vote by its…
likelihood
why would we use secondary analysis
If you have a question and using a survey is the right basic method, then you want to start by looking for existing data/surveys. This is because there are many free high-quality survey data sets online with much better sampling than you can ever afford.
Why are weights used in polling?
Weights are used to try and represent a proportion of the demographics that are harder to reach.
Which variables are traditionally used for weights, and which variable did pollsters add to correct for the 2020 election’s underestimate of votes for Trump?
Traditionally, weights are for basic demographics like race, age and sex.
The variable that the pollsters added to correct for the 2020 election’s underestimate of votes for Trump was partisan nonresponse bias.
What do weights in polling try to correct for?
They try to correct for response biases and adjust the sample to better match the population (at least on demographics).
What information is vote likelihood based on?
Often based on past voting history or on self-reported intention to vote
(or both + other variables like education, self-reported interest, attitude extremity, etc.)
100 participants in a poll, and each one of them is assigned a 30% chance of voting for A
how many votes for A
30
Why was the 2020 election more concerning for pollsters than the 2016 election, even though they predicted Biden’s win in 2020 and failed to predict Trump’s win in 2016?
2020 was concerning because the prediction was way outside the margin of error, consistently over-estimating Biden’s support also because there was systematic bias at play.
70 participants with a 100% chance of voting for B
how many votes for B
70
what is inter-coder reliability
do we get the same codes from different people?
validity is so much more important
check inter-coder reliability (how often you agree after 100 cases or so)
What does a random sample let you do for content analysis
For what’s in the media, you start with sampling, and a random sample lets you generalize to a population of content. It is an alternative because it has higher reliability and validity.
Why is random sampling for content analysis sometimes an alternative to automated coding of big data?
You can get a full population of 5 million tweets, sample a few thousand of them, and human code them all.
It is of higher quality, and you can still generalize it to five million.
what is krippendorff’s alpha
> or =.7 its ok
or =.8 its good
its a number we are hoping is above .7 but its better to be above .8
what are coding sheets
where you do the coding and save the results
what is a coding guide
rules for how to code each variable
what is an example of a coding sheet
spreadsheets with cases as rows and variables as columns
what are manifest concept meanings
these are clearly in the text without having to make assumptions
