Exam 2 Material 3, 5, 11, 14, 17 Flashcards
What is a forecast?
a statement about the future value of a variable of interest
What are two important aspects of forecast?
- expected level of demand
2. accuracy
Explain time-series forecast
a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular time intervals
5 time series behaviors
- trend
- seasonality
- cycles
- irregular variations
- random variation
Explain trend
a long-term upward/downward movement in data
Explain Cycle
wavelike variations lasting more than one year
Explain Naive
uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis for a forecast
Explain moving average
averages a number of the most recent actual values in generating a forecast
Explain weighted moving average
most recent values in a time series are given more weight in computing a forecast
Explain exponential smoothing
based on previous forecast plus a percentage of forecast error
What is capacity?
The upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can handle
What is design capacity?
max output rate or service capacity of an operation, process or facility it is designed for
What is effective capacity?
design capacity-allowance such as personal time and maintenance
What is efficiency?
actual/effective
What is utilization?
actual/design
Explain leading
build capacity in anticipation of future demand increases
Explain following
build capacity when demand exceeds current capacity
Explain tracking
Add capacity in relatively small increments to keep pace with increasing demand
Short term considerations relate to ____ in capacity requirements
variations
long term considerations relate to ______ in capacity requirements
level
Name 3 challenges related to service capacity
- need to be near customers
- inability to store services
- degree of demand volatility
Name strategies used to offset capacity limitations and that intended to achieve a closer match between supply and demand
pricing, promotion, discounts
What is a bottleneck operation?
an operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the other operations
Explain economies of scale
if output rate is less than optimal level, increasing the output rate results in decreasing average per unit costs