Exam 2 Flashcards
Classical Gold Standard
Countries pegged their currencies to gold
What did WW1 do
Imposed massive fiscal burden on participating countries. Lots of deficit spending
Most countries stopped gold redeemability, essentially making their notes (fiat)
Monetary expansion resulted in bursts of inflation
Inflationary finance
Gold Exchange Standard
Monetary system under which a nation’s currency may be converted into bills of exchange drawn on a country whose currency is convertible into gold at a stable rate of exchange.
Less need for large domestic gold reserves
Precursor to Bretton Woods Monetary System
Bretton Woods
European Countries fixed their countries to the US dollar
The US dollar was redeemable in gold
Hence, a gold-exchange standard
Some capital controls
Problems with Bretton Woods
`At the end of WW2 US output accounted for nearly half of world output.
The US exported heavily to Europe and a lot of US dollars flowed overseas in the Marshall plan.
By the 1970’s, many European central banks held large reserves of USD.
Many began to question the potential of a “run” on the Treasury, where they would ask dollars to be redeemed for gold.
US expansionary fiscal and monetary policy during the Vietnam war only worsened the outlook.
By the time Nixon closed the gold window, it was readily apparent that the US could not have been ready to redeem even a fraction of foreign held dollars for gold.
Post-Bretton Woods
Developed countries tend to let their exchange rates float
Developing countries tend to fix their currencies to a premier currency (Dollar, Euro, Pound).
There is also a good deal of intermediate regimes
Dirty floats
Crawling pegs with bands
Costs and Benefits of Floating exchange rate
control of monetary policy, currency attacks less likely, more day to-day uncertainty, immunization from foreign shocks
Costs and Benefits of Fixed exchange rate
partial control of inflation, currency attacks, less day-to-day exchange rate uncertainty, “excessive” disturbances
Different degrees of “Fixed”
-Floating
-Intermediate regimes
Dirty float
Fixed with crawling pegs
Fixed with bands
-Fixed
Currency Board
Currency Union/Dollarization
Integration
Concerns towards integration lead to a fixed exchange rate regime
Lower transactions costs and more trade
Similarity
Concerns regarding similarity push toward floating exchange rates
If economic shocks are asymmetric, countries want policy flexibility to deal with it
Integration Benefits
Economic integration: growth of market linkages in goods, capital, and labor markets among regions and countries.
Lower transaction costs, a fixed exchange rate might promote integration and hence increase economic efficiency.
More integration = more volume of transactions between the two countries (or geographic areas)
More integration -> efficiency benefits of a fixed exchange rate increase.
Illustration: There is more trade between Washington and Oregon, than between Washington and British Columbia (Canada).
Integration Costs
If the region (i.e. the two countries) face different shocks: fixed exchange rate can be costly.
Example: Black Wednesday
Germany wanted tight monetary policy to offset a boom, but UK did not because they did not have the same shock.
If shocks are asymmetric, fixed exchange rates can amplify output shocks
First Generation Currency Crisis models
These models show that a speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate regime can occur due to the rational expectations of investors and arbitrageurs.
This is due to excessive deficit financing, often with central bank credit
Investors will hold the currency as long as the peg is deemed credible. Once they believe that the central bank will no longer defend the peg (at some point in the future) they run.
Central bank loses reserves and is forced to abandon the peg. The domestic currency floats.
Fiscal Dominance
Fiscal dominance serves as one mechanism which propagates first generation currency crises.
Without independence, the fiscal authority can force the central bank to directly finance new debt issue from the treasury.
Inflationary finance and seigniorage
Implication of fiscal dominance
First generation crises are often caused by fiscal/monetary policies that are inconsistent with maintaining fixed exchange rates.
Second Generation Models of Currency Crises
Occurs when a government is pursuing a fixed exchange rate regime concurrently with another policy goal (normally boosting output/employment).P
Problem of contingent commitment
The public knows that the government of weighs the costs and benefits of maintaining a fixed exchange rate.
Investors know that there are conditions which could force the government to abandon the peg.
Potential for multiple equilibria
Loanable Funds Theory of Interest Rates
Wicksellian natural interest rate: The rate that leads to a stable price level
Interest above the natural rate= contraction and deflation
Interest below the natural rate = expansion and inflation
This means that the interest rate affects the price level but isn’t determined by it.
Keynesian liquidity preference theory for interest rates
Interest is a result of money demand/supply
Purely monetary phenomenon
In classical economics the interest rate was determined solely by
the confluence of savings and investment
Higher savings, lower interest rate
Higher demand for investment, higher interest rate
Irvin Fisher interest rate theory
Interest coordinates markets intertemporally
Fisher: Interest theory is relative price theory
-“The rate of interest expresses a price in the exchange between present and future goods.”
-However, money plays no role in Fisherian interest theory (intertemporal barter only)
-The interest rate reflects the relative scarcity of present and future goods, and productive possibilities
Liquidity Preference
The rate of interest rises with the demand for money, and falls with the supply of money
Interest is a reward for parting with liquidity
No role in coordinating markets intertemporally
Since money demand/supply can be managed, no natural rate of interest either.
Can be managed by CB to be whatever rate is deemed desirable
Time Preference
the future is discounted relative to the present.
That is, future goods are discounted subjectively, relative to present goods