Exam #2 Flashcards
What is the economic policy ?
-Economic performance is extremely important to political outcomes.
-Incumbents at every level are punished when the national economy does poorly.
-Rewarded when it does well.
EX: Oil price increase due to Israel situation
People say economic policy is one of the things that moves the needle on public opinion. Why does this happen?
Imagine the economy touches everybody. Policy or issue that affects everybody. Everybody notices & large amount of media coverage
What is the role of economy in the govt?
-Traditionally thought of as separate spheres that define a country.
-how much of a role does the national govt have in the economy?- depends on the system of govt
Communism v Socialism v Capitalism
-High level of govt involvement typically associated w/ undemocratic systems
why?- people typically vote to get themselves more economic freedom when given the option.
-what we call socialism in the US is fully compatible w/ democracy (healthcare)
What is communisim?
high level of control, government control over the economy which means most GDP is controlled by govt.
What are foundational policies that in some areas overlap in govt & economy?
-Federal Reserve (money supply)
-Taxes
-Social Security
-Guarantee currency
-enforce contracts/ patents (sign into a business)
-regulating stack markets-> pause trading
-Trade agreements (who will be in business)
-Infrastructure
(baseline thing govt is doing)
Great Depression in economic policy?
-1930 when economic performance becomes a clear responsibility of govt
-obvious need for govt w/so much poverty & misery
What are the 2 levelers to influence economy?
Monetary
Fiscal policy
what is monetary policy?
(federal reserve) Controlling the money supply via the Central Bank
(Everybody wants the same thing in the economy)
what is fiscal policy?
(where we argue alot) Spenfing & taxing (happens in congress)
What is the economic business cycle?
Boom & bust cycle- where we see expansion or contractions
-> we want to see expansions
-> we want to see steady growth over time
-> want to avoid runaway
What causes Contractions?
happening for a long time, and no one was really clear that govt had any role or responsibility
-Economic contractions blamed on laziness, immigrants, drunkeness (temperance movement), acts of god
Who is John Keynes and why is he important?
Famous economist, suggest that contraction is caused by a demand spiral
1) An exogenous shock to the market (housing market collapse)
2) People have less wealth than they thought, afraid of uncertainty, etc so they spend less
3)business make less money so they hire and invest less
4) fewer jobs= less money to spend
5)and cycle gets worse
What is the government response to demand spiral?
Keynes argues spending can help reak out of demand spiral
How?- tax cuts (on everyone but mostly on low income) & Direct spending (Ex: infrastructure, public edu, healthcare)
What are the consequences of the govt response of demand spiral?
Govt debt (maybe a lot)
What about during expansion (economic)?
Economic expansion is a good but too rapid expansion can be worrisome
-inflation is process by which purchasing power of money becomes worthless overtime
->stuffing money in mattress is bad idea
-> Savvy peopleinvest their money in funds that will appreciate at higher than inflation rates
->when inflation outpaces actual GDP growth, you can have a problem.(want 2-5%)
what is the government response to expansion?
Fiscal Policy repsonse to increase level of inflation is to try to reduce spending.
1) raise taxes
2) Cut spending
Idea is to slow down the rate at which money is cycling through the economy
what is counter cycle spending?
intellectual centerpiece of modern fiscal policy
- add money to economy during downturns, subtract money during periods of overheating
- also called demand-side or keynesian economics
What is monetary policy?
is what the central bank (federal reserve) does
- even more important than fiscal policy
-we don’t hear as much about it bc it is a rare area that isn’t so political
What is control money supply?
like fiscal policy, goal is to control the rate at which money is circulating through economy
-balancing inflation w/demand problems
Big mechanism is to control lending rates
What is the lender of last resort?
Federal reserve is the bank of last resort (insures & lends to other banks)
Charge other banks interest on these loans which is prime rate
Banks then loan money to people & business and charge them an interest rate is prime + whatever appropriate based on credit history
Why would we adjust prime rates?
If federal reserve is worried about inflation, they will rise lending rates thus arresting the flow of money
- cooling effect
EX: inflation reduction act-> goes through treasury as fiscal policy
What is cooling effect?
cooling down the economy
What is the chair person?
-most powerful positions in the world.
-rarely make public statements bc every utterance can affect the stock market
-long tradition of appointing serious economic/ banker types
What is the politicization of economy?
economy is extremely partisan
-liberals comfortable w/ demand side bc involves gov spending programs and redistributing money to low income people
what is the conservative answer to these issues?
1)Tax cuts (can be both sides) (Rep. want it Dems choose a side)
2)Deregulation
-To correct downturns you cut taxes (& regulations) for wealthy people & companies
-Idea is to boost up investment (encourage)
-Supply side: (derisively) trickle down economics
what is public partisan evaluations?
one day, one side of this line to the other, it is the same economy. Trending in the same direction.
Can see a profound reversal in how people view the economy.
What are the deficits?
govt spending more money than what they have
Parties usually care most about deficits when they are out of power
Complaining about deficits is another way of saying I don’t like how this party is budgeting
-But increase interest payments are obviously not good
What is the green lantern theory?
strong tendency to overestimate the ability of presidents (or govt)
-Economic policy can have a long effect on economic performance
- In practice the effects are often small and hard to isolate.
What is trade policy?
Area where the pres. has most of the leverage
- Chied diplomate
-> gets to negotiate trade agreements
->Congress can agree or disagree but not amend
What is open trade?
Free trade agreements are usually good economies (EX: make countries richer)
-trend since ww2
-EU is based on this principle
-> created euro to help in trade
-> UK left EU so now facing consequences
-NAFTA one of our huge traders
(North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement)
What are some consequences to having open trade?
environmental consequences
-agreements sometimes shield multinationals from legal consequences
-unequal gains
->US: consumers gain, manufactures lose
-> some areas lose out
What are the policy solutions?
Simply redistribute gains form free trade to losers
-Biden mentioned manufacturing cars in US to help w/ this issue
-Redistribution is what govt does
-We actually have these policies in place but constantly underfund them
What is economic inequality?
is the consequence of economic competition.
levels of economic inequality are not constant over time
Do we see an increase of unequal country?
Yes
dimensions of inequality:
income & wealth (vertical)
race ethnicity gender (horizontal)
what are economic and social consequences of inequality?
economic stagnation
health & other social consequences
political polarization
lobbying; election influences of money
exclusion, unfairness, & unequal application of the law
(social unrest)
what is income inequality?
all income in that year distributed. # continue to increase. (rich of rich taking most of the income)
what is wealth inequality?
highly skewed distribution. We start to see society become more and more unequal.
poor at negative wealth while the 1% continue to gain money
what is the distribution of household income?
bottom 80% hold only 7% of total wealth and top 1% own 40%
median household income in US: low in south high in north dakota since no one lives there
What can a survey tell you about the distribution of wealth is?
most people thoughts on distribution is wrong. When they make their ideal distribution we have equality view point
What does the income inequality and redistribution do?
The US does less than many other rich countries to reduce market generates income inequality
- other countries try to move ginex down
-how? by increasing taxes (affordable health care)
what are income gains widely shared early postwar decades?
rich people getting richer
low income staying the same
-known as power law
what is power law?
think of it as a way to gain social media followers
have wealth easy to get more wealth
what are the causes of inequality?
early 1980s
-income and wealth inequality is a direct consequence of capitalism & free enterprise
-increase inequality today is function of economic factors & political factors
what are economic factors?
globalization & tech that tends to eliminate lower skill positions
(can find it way into politics & thus into public policy , thus making inequality worse)
What causes of post 1980s rise?
Globalization
lower taxes for the wealthy
-(marginal rate=pay rate based on income )
-(more progressive/ more brackets more rate
decline of union
What are tax marginal tax rate?
Increase on tax on rich leads to lower inequality
decrease tax on rich leads to increase inequality
How would inequality matter for policymaking?
if we believe that money is related to political influence then it might matter a great deal.
-unequal democracy thesis
what are the roles of public policy in inequality?
Public policies sometimes makes inequality worse
policies sometimes reduces inequality
policy uninteded affects can sometimes make things less=
Ex: Criminal justice
What is public policy lawmaking?
most laws classified as landmark legislation move syste, in a liberal direction
Ex: medicare ACA no child left behind
many public goods benefit less well off disproportionally (ex edu)
1 major set of exception : tax rates
what are the race, ethnicity& gender : compounded inequality?
for blacks much initial inequality was caused by public policy & it was buttressedby custom and violence
-slavery
-black codes in the south after reconstruction
-vigilante action (kkk, white citizens council)
In texas and south mexican american met a harsh and often segregated reality
Public policy were used to segregate?
In class he mentioned the story buying a house and in the contract it says to never sell a house to black person. never changed since no on pays attention to it.
Having a house showed wealth
What plays into horizontal inequality?
causal stories and we want to know what does it mean on policies we support
what are the perspectives (inequality)?
Economics: distribution of wealth is a consequences of market forces
-problem definition of inequality under this framework
Political scientist: distribution of wealth consequences of policy
(not one side is right or wrong)
What is the health care & policy cycle?
Problems-> agenda-> decisions-> output->implementation-> outcomes<- social & individual factors
What are some healthcare?
access to care
insurance reform
Medicaid solvency
cost control
medicare solvency
cost of drugs
chronic care
promoting R&D
Medical malpractice
public
environmental health
How does health policy affect the health of the Population?
nature of health problems= contagious disease
committed to solve problems ($$)
-solution applied to the problem
- public provision
-market and society
- mixed system
When was the health care reform?
health care been 1 of the biggest areas of policy attention since around 1950s
what is the motivating frames in health care?
can those with means (insurance, wealth,ect) acces the best possible care?
can those w/out means access any care at all?
-health care a right & it is a right like to acces to clean water, safe neighborhoods
What started the war on poverty?
LBJ
National poverty rate of 19%
economic opportunity act of 1964
food stamp act of 1964
elementary & secondary edu act 1965
amend social security to create medicare & medicaid
dual federalism is how states spend money on that program (payroll tax-> social security & medicare)
What is the policy background (healthcare)?
Medicare 1965
single payer healthcare
expanded to provide health for elderly citizens
originally for military families
most expensive federal program
Medicaid 1965
health care for poor adults and children
costs shared between state and federal govt
What are 3 main spending (health)?
medicare, social security, discretionary (military defense)
how does Health care look today?
Govt is an insurance comapany w/ an army- peter fisher
Is spending slow recently (healthcare)?
see program becoming more expensive
start to worry how we are going to afford this
Why are we seeing a decline on spending?
when govt has concern on health they put pressure to lower it. put pressure cute cost (hypothesis)
good thing that america is being overtested. Bad if we cut cost by not testing
What is private insurance?
compare health services to other services
lots of money & industry happening
1 reason why health industry is massive
Where do americans get health insurance?
1st-from employer
might havt to pay some of that
2nd-medicare/ medicade/ uninsured
what is the problem stream for health care?
lots of people dont like about the US health care
very expensive
worse outcomes than we might like (bad value)
What is the per capita health care spending 2023?
US spends more than other countries
both out of pocket & govt
What is the spending?
1970-7.2% healthcare cost-> 18% in 2010
2.6 trillion to 4.6 trillion in 2020
5% of pop responsible for almost half of health care spending
What is per capita on health?
invest in public health. does increase life expectancy
See implementation when spending money
Random things happen (ex covid)
No linear bc we can’t live forever
US bad value since spending a lot but low life expectancy
Can we compare US to other wealth countries?
OVertime US is moving up but than we start to move away. MOre spending but declining life expectancy
Why are we seeing low life expectancy compared to other weatlhy countries?
Gun violence
Covid 19
scaled back the generosity of health care
mental health
inequality in wealth/ health
inequality to acces health care
what are the 3 reasons we see this happening (compared to wealthy countries)?
not everyone is covered
market mechanism fail us somewhat w/ health care
Transparency & competition needed
Why did most democratic move from this?
struggle w/ end of life care
What are things we do will (health)?
thriving pharmaceutical industry
on the cutting edge of developing new drugs
other countries free ride off this
but expensive in US
What are the implementations (health)?
spending more than peers
less time @ doctors in US
Japan spend time @ doctors all the time
What does the health care system like?
most nations either a system of public provision (UK Canada) or a single payer system (switzerland, France, US medicare system)
what is a single payer?
a monopoly but in reverse, so govt has lots of bargaining power to keep costs low
plus everyone gets covered
but concerns of stifles innovation & wait time can be longer for non essential things
what is the ACA?
most controversal law
does 2 things
-tries to get everyone covered. Need beyond people to get it
-tries to establish baseline level of insurance coverage
Is ACA working?
Yes, # of uninsured Americans is down substantially & down further in states that adopted Medicaid
Health care cost curve is bending
No American can be denied care bc of pre existing conditions, nor can cost be raised bc of them
CBO lowered the cost of the system several times
who was helped the most w/ ACA?
lower income countries that were helped
they had increase of people who can benefit from it
Who has the right to health care?
increasingly becoming a central part of Dem Party platform
- 1 idea is medicare for all
-expensive in short run but but potentially w/ long term savings
- disruptive to majority industry
What is the partisan split (health)?
wording plays an important role in polls
Ex: medicare for all vs public option means same thing but Republicans wont vote for medicare for all
What do we know about wars historitcally?
Great powers= big countries w/ more military stuff
# now reduced in war w/ great powers
Have more people been killed lately due to war?
have decreased compared back to WW1 & Vietnam
Now not near the WW2 result
Have we seen progress?
Global life expectancy 1800-2020
killing people at young age will bring down life expectancy
Is the situation better today then before w/ war and conflict?
Yes, NATO creates allies argeement, prevent conflict among themselves, & prevents others to attack them
Trade will decrease conflict
Why no war and conflict?
Technological developments
Rise of demoncracy
Rise of international organization
what does democracy do in foregin policy?
We see challenges to democracy but overtime democracy has increased. We have more democracy
What is US foreign policy?
Motivating ideas:
unilateralism advocates for the US to make its own decisions on foreign policy
Multilateralism seeks the cooperation of other countries in foreign policy actions
Foreign policy has increased bureaucracy
What are the history lesson for foreign policy?
US grows quite dramatically in power (econ & military)
-like china (today) in 1800
hesitant to become deeply involved in world politics
monroe doctorine 1823
-got indepencence, euope has no interest in trying to get our control
Spanish American war example of fighting a war to protect Monroe
What is the panama canal
US gets involved sent troops. helped then become free. In return they can build the panama canal and control it
What significant about WW1?
Devastating for Europe
An old fashion war of complex alliances but w/ modern weapons
brutal war w/ lots of casualties
west was not involved
fear they were going to be involved
germans sunk submarine shocks president as we lost some Americans
german scared US was joining, so proposes a telegram to Mexico to distract the US. Promised to help later, Once it came out, US said they will join
What is the inter war period?
Multiculturalism: league of nations
Unilateralism/ isolationism: disarmament & isolationsim
-good neighbor policy franklin d roosevelt
What is significant of ww2?
initially US, this is European problem
-europeans try to avoid fighting
things looking really bad so start sending money & weapons to UK
japan boom pearl harbor
US join war
what are the 3 major fronts?
Pacific- US vs Japan
Eastern Europe- Germany vs Russia
Western Europe- Germany vs UK vs US
what was the aftermath of ww2?
2 big developments
nuclear weapons
large parts of europe destroyed
-major inflection point in US foreign policy bc we r in position of great power
what is marshall plan?
Marshal is Truman’s secretary of state
-plan loans of dollars to help rebuild europe
-US going to be leader in world affairs
(US helped japan reconstruct)
-developed international org
-nuclear unbrella
what significant of cold war?
Bipolar world (US vs USSR)
nuclear deterrence, arms race, space race, areas of influence, proxy wars
played out in latin america
-US couldnt allow 2nd cuba
- support/ participation
what are 2 tenets of modern american foeign policy
International security through alliances & international orgs
nuclear non proliferation
what happened post cold war?
post colt war: unilateral power
-soft power: economic buying power, diplomatic corps, loans to foreign govt
-hard power: military or weapons
describe the world economy?
China & US main economic power
US has trade network
what are the nuclear powers?
Russia had most than US
America influences Latin America, strong agreements on them not having it
what is the great powers regional powers (small countries)?
Foreign policy very salient bc of the role as unilateral power
-topic does not raise nearly as much attention in smaller countries & regional powers
-foreign policy the optimal choices depend on country’s position
Does it consider a tough decision?
policy streams is not always clear
politics can be highly polarizing but in less obviously partisan ways
when should we intervine & how?
with great power comes great responibility
What is no intervention (book on slides)?
by Rwanda 1994
US (clinton) refuses to call it a genocide
ignores UN peacekeepers calling for troops & support
Around 1 mil killed w/ machetes in 100 days
what is the bad intervention- bombing cambodia?
Called operation Menu 1969-70
Kept secret from Congress & public (ie illegal)
Extensive bombing of Laos, Cambodia, & vietnam during Vietnam war
most bombed area ever
destabalizing region, leading to takeover of Cambodian govt by Khmer Rouge
Brutally kill 1.5 -2 mil of pop
what is the avoid overattribution?
world is complex & full of good and bad
- have their own agency
lots of things can happen regardless of US involvement
-remember Green laturn theory
What are tough decisions-what should be done about?
Russia invasion in Ukraine
Isreal & palestine
north korea
civil war in syria
iran
china
what is the equivalent retaliation?
cornerstone of much foreign policy decision making
idea is to make it clear that transgressions will be met w/ credible (but reasonable) penalties
cybersecurity an area of emerging concern
-not clear what penalties should be
What are the shifting international norms?
Trump campaigns on an American first agenda (isolationism)
making good on it
1) state department is dramatically reduced in staff
2) pulling out of UN agreements
3) no longer tryign to be a world leader
What happend post trump?
Can american continue to lead the world stage? Can we advocate for democracy when we have our own very visible problems?
Biden is bread and butter on foreign policy (Very conventional)
What do elections accomplish?
Determining policy direction and ideology
selecting competent leaders
holding the elected officials accountable
What happens in urban politics, what are the issues?
crime, homelessness, affordability, traffic/ public transport
How are the cities doing w/ the urban politics?
some good but most are struggling. Homeless, affordability doing worse. the others are a mix
Why are some cities doing worse than others?
small geographic areas so you need to spend more to get it done
Urban politics= Democrats
what is the not in my backyard mean?
property owners vs nonproperty
things we want to add but dont want near us
what drives local politics?
Generally liberal populations
less money
NIMBY
What are the state election laws?
States redistrict
-every 10yrs after release of census
- some lose districts since they lost pop
-others win districts since they gain pop
felon voting laws
states decide on voting technology, staffing of polling places and how votes are counted
Why do we argue about state election laws?
tension on how to make it easy to vote & fear of making it to easy
what is the redistriciting process?
count pop
observe how people have moved around
redraw districts so that they have roughly the same # of people
what is gerrymandering?
drawn to give their party an advantage
2 methods:
cracking
packing
what is cracking in gerrymandering?
cracking-1 party votes been split into many districts, losing each by narrow margin
what is packing in gerrymandering?
packing- 1 party votes have been concentrated in a few districts, creating surplus or voters
what is the goal of gerrymandering?
to get wasted votes
what is the efficiency gap?
want ti benefit the party
this is how trump won EX: in wisconson
Can felons vote?
of states that say no they can’t vote
majority states say if in prison no but out yes (texas)
2 states say yes you never lose your right to vote
what is the rush of new legislation?
Right wing states trying to pass restictions (ex voter id law)
left wing states moving opposite direction
What is the TX senate bill no 7?
limit early voting hrs
broaden poll watchers access to polls
prohibit sending unsolicited vote by mail applications
new rules governing distribution of polling centers in counties w/ 1 million +
Why pass/ introduce these policies?(election)
GOP: protect vote, ensure trust in democratic process
Democrats; Suppress democratic vote
where is it the easiest and hardest place to vote?
easy= democratic states
hard= republican states
what makes it easier to vote?
Flexible registration deadlines
voter regulation restriction
voter id laws
mail in voting
historically does voting matter?
yes
reconstruction we see more African american voting
it ends and move to Jim crow
1960 we see progress
Today is mixed on if politics matter
but any 1 policy?
no clear that individual policies have a huge effect on turnout
-EX:voter id
what is election forcasting?
increasingly popular enterprise
being a member of congress is basically nonstop election forecasting
what are the fundamentals of elections?
elections can be predicted w/ a relatively high degree of accuracy w/ just 2 variables
- GDP growth in 2nd or 3rd quater before election
- # of yrs a party hase been in White HOuse
what are wicked policy problems?
on going problems faced by almost ever government in the world
-poverty
-pollution
- crime
Can we solve wicked problems?
Sort of
can make progress toward solving them
eliminating them may be almost impossible
what is poverty overtime?
poverty goes up as the pop goes up
decrease in 60-mid 70s
what is the recent process on welfare?
some would say its not fair
welfare policies are having a decrease
quality of edu can make a difference
more affordable housing/ healthcare (not considered welfare)
how do we measure welfare?
Official poverty measure (OPM)
-compares pre tax income agianst threshold of inflation adjusted cost of minimum food diet in 1963 & adjusted for family size
what are transfers?
income becomes transfer before transfers & taxes + means tested transfer- federal taces= income after transfers & taxes
What are the defining ideas? (welfare)
what is our collective responsibility to take care of the poor?
-personal responsibility
-circumstantial realities
related question to what counts as welfare
who is deserving and undeserving of welfare?
military veterans
children
able bodied adults
undocumented immigrants
what are the 3 major periods? (welfare)
emergence of welfare system 1930
expansion of welfare system 1960
retraction of welfare system 1990
possbile new expansion 2020
what happened in the great depression in welfare?
Great depression puts poverty on the map
- poverty has always been an issue but suddenly local charaties can’t keep up
20% of children malnourished
idea of American dream is seriously changed
what was the welfare system of 1935?
time has come for action security against the major hazards and vicissitudes of life
social security act
- govt guarantees money to states, help care of poor children
aids to families w/ dependent children
What was Nixons Additions?
Supplemental Security Income 1974
-disability benefits
Earned income tax credit 1975
-tax break for low income
-size of credit depends on # of kids
what was the backlash received from the Nixon additions?
started w/ Reagan Admin
concern w/ welfare trap
(teaching people to be lazy)
What was the solution towards backlash (welfare)?
make sure you are not cheating the system
have them but dont make them to generous
(able bodied adults taking advantage of the system)
what is the racialized rhetoric? (welfare)
radical dog whistling
welfare queens
strapping young bucks buying t-bone steaks w/ food stamps
What happened in the Clinton Era retrenchment?
personal responsiblity & work opportunity act 1996
end federal ADFDC cash assistance & turns
-replaced w/ TANF (temporary assistance for needy family)
work requirements
also reduce food stamps & SSI benefits
what are the defining features (welfare)?
cooperative federalism
predominately means-tested
concerns about deserving vs undeserving poor
what is the submerged state (welfare)?
people using welfare that they didn’t know was considered welfare
what is the problem definition for welfare?
how should we define welfare?
traditionally defined in US as means-tested programs
but if we simply mean any program that helps the poor, then suddenly we are talking about a much bigger slice of the budget.
what is the graph of tax break? (figure model on welfare)
more costly on govt
most dont get 401k so it helps rich and middle income
wants people to invest in your retirement
what is the perceptions on how americans describe their economic class? (welfare)
upper class=1% upper mid=11% mid= 47% low mid=29% lower=10%
those w/ 100k still consider them middle class, more people moving to right then left (poor)
What is budgets?
when we talk about redistribution its based on the budget
budget is the bill
taking money they collected through taxes & redistributing to agencies
what are the favorite indicator (budgets)?
budgets to test their hypothese
-quantifiable
-sure indicator of govt priorities
major theories have emerged from study of budgeting
-incrementalism
-punctuated equilibrium
what are the indicators of budgets?
expenditures
-what is actually spent in a yr
budget authority
-authorization to spend
-much better measure of decision making
what is the size of govt (figure about budget)?
govt taking in revenue & redistributing it
-govt spending we think federal but state & local doing it
-largest tax is property tax at local level
spike in govt spending during civil war, ww1,ww2
30-80s spike but now flattening out
what happened in the modern period: compare to the size of the economy?
60- Federal govt outlays to GDP 17.2%
80s end of period 21.1% a solid but not really alarming increase
90s nothing changed
healthy econ & deficit reduction efforts by congress & pres Bush & Clinton led to decline in Federal share of economy
008-great recession, consequence spending 2 major wars & domestic commitments form of medicare
stimulus program in 2015
big jump to 31%
what is the understanding the issue of types of govt programs?
direct spending
-investment- programs pay dividends in long run in terms of added economic growth
-consumption-satisfy direct needs
Tax policies (increases or decreases in tax rates)
-can be investments or consumption
what is deficit (surplus)?
the annual difference between the amount spent and the amount of revenue collected (taxes, fees, etc)
-stimulate the economy short term
what is debt (budget)?
long term accumulation of annual deficits
what is obligations (budgets)?
the difference between what the govt has promised to pay and what it has set aside to pay it
what is the US debt (figure)? budget
% of growth of GDP
debt expanding from 1980
revenue didnt
taxes decreased in 80s
keep cutting taxes so govt has no money
debt decrease in both parties
what happens with economic growth?
we want to see increase
can debt be expensive?
everywhere in the world increase interest rates so do we
have to pay debt
what is the budgetary process?
OMB solicits funding requests from agencies
president submits a budget to house
house makes major changes
senate makes major changes
eventually signed by president
what is the budget calendar?
federal govt fiscal yr starts on oct 1
budgetary process is supposed to start in early feb
BUT congress had a really hard time passing budget
continuing resolution
what does the US budget look like in 2022? (figure)
we see mandatory spending
hard for either party to navigate
revenue comes from income tax
what is the defense spending?
US does more defense spending than anyone else
(progressives say its too much spending but no real way to ask how much of the other budget is actually being spent)
US arms dealer to the world
How is the govt is funded? (budget)
cut corporate taxes so we can make it easier for them to invest
economy moved from goods to services
what are taxes?
one of the most argued about components of budgeting
-how much should peopl be paying
republicans
-always want to cut taxes
democrats
- sometimes want to cut them
-would like to raise them for rich people
What are the 3 types of taxes?
progressive=income
(more comes out from rich but same %)
flat=corporate, capital gains
regressive=sale
(higher % in lower income than rich)
What is effective tax rate?
statutory tax rates- set by govt
what you actually pay in tax after factoring various deductions= effective tax rate
What are the 3 big deductions in effective tax rate?
mortgage
healthcare
earned income tax credit (mostly for people w/ children)
capital gains
who are the people who benefit (budget)?
Those in higher % tile (highest income)
what is managing tradeoffs? (environmental)
Everyone would prefer to live in a clean environment
but no one wants to pay for the negative externalities
What is the history of environmental?
most of US history we had land management, but no govt mandate to protect the environment
not responsiblility of govt
What is the population figure about? (environmental)
Increase in pop dramatically
pulls resources from the planet
(US biggest pop)
we do see inceaxe in global pop
Birth rates decrease everywhere except in Africa
global pop expected to peak & then see the opposite pattern
What happened in the industrial revolution w/ environment?
gives people tools to make major changes to environment
eventually starts to take visible toll on our surroundings
-pollution reaches a point where it becomes a serious problem
What does the land use look like? (environmental)
huge amount of land use is for Pasture/ range (cattle)
Cropland next then Forest, special use , urban
most populous dense pop
what is the environmental movement?
Develops in 1960s &1070s
# of focal points
Silent Spring by Rachel Carson
What is the BIkini Atoll?
Weapon testing
radiated a small amount to the world
would see radiation on fossils that tell us what period they were in
What was the insecticides?
When they would use something to protect their crops but they found out it was killing more than just the insects.
What was cuyahoga river fire?
oil on top of the river so it catches on fire
Do we have an idea of who had come?(environmental)
Clean air Act 1970
Clean water act 1972
Endangered species Act 1973
What was the clean air act 1970?
empowers EPA establish and regulate air quality
CO2 counts
WHat was the clean water Act 1972?
regulates water quality how pollutants are disposed of
What is the endangered species Act 1973?
Categorieze animals based on vulerablilty creates limits on development
What is the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)?
Proposed & established by Pres Nixon
Executive agenct, not a cabinet department
power to issue regulations
-this is policymaking by administrative law
Why Nixon on environmental?
didnt really care about environment
-not major component of party platforms
pop support for the idea
not as political as it is today
What did president Carter do with environment?
very environmentally friendly
had an idea for pursuing clean energy
-solar panels on roof of white house
oil embargo & other crises derail this agenda
What did pres Reagan do with environment?
Take down solar panels from White House
help put together Montreal Protocol
-phased out the use of ozone depleting chemicals (CFCs)
-only successful international environmental treaty
What comes next (envir)?
policy challenge of the century
climate change
-hurricanes
-wildfires
-drought
-extinctions
What is the measure tempature?
After Industrial revolution we see increase in temp
how do we get out of carbon we produced?
natural solution is trees
develop fans to pull carbon out of air
geo engineering solution (release more chemicals into atmosphere to cool the planet
What is complicated (envir)?
precise estimates on how much sea level/ temp rise in different localities in what time frame
climate is definition of a complex interactive system
What is the policy stream of environmental?
could we solve it? yes alternatives exist
-solar
-wind
-nuclear
-carbon tax
-etc
what is the political stream in environmental?
massive collective action problem
massive sunk costs in existing fossil fuel-based infrastructure
difficult to walk back convenience of modern life
-especially hard sell to developing world
Is change likely to come in environmental?
yeah, punctuations are possible
effects are starting to be felt in everyday life
What did we notice about the Fishing contest in key west?
the fish getting smaller and smaller over the years.
what is change blindness?
general tendency to underweight small changes in environment
What causes change blindness?
under bounded rationality umbrella
small changes are easier to miss
anchoring
limited missing context
what is the public responsiveness to cj?
high: economic conditions
low: foreign affairs (except war)
crime is another
What is CJ on Federalism?
another area where the primary actors are state & local govt
18,000 police departments in US
local actions are limited/ guided by constitutional principles
What is 4th amendment?
bars govt from unreasonable search & seizure
EX: Mapp v Ohio
what is the 5th amendment?
protection against double jeopardy
-benton vs MD
no self incrimination
-miranda vs AZ
just compensation for property
-chigaco railroad vs city Chicago
what is the 6th amendment?
right to speedy trial, public trail, impartial jury trail, notice of accusations, confront adverse witnesses, & assistance of counsel
what is the 8th amendment?
protection against excessive bail, against excessive fines, against cruel & unusual punishment
what is the 14th amendment?
Also known as due process or equal protection
laws & rights must applied to all citizens equally
workhorse of modern cj & civil rights litigation
What is the system of justice
retribution= eye for eye
incapacitation= seperate
rehabilitation= rejoin society
when did we see shift in CJ?
1960
went from incapacitation to retribution
rehabilitation not seen as realistic
What are the causal stories introduced on CJ?
Causal stories & formation of POlicy agendas
-deborah stone 1989
important idea in policy study
-stories we tell about causes of social problems
What causes crime?
Structural factors
-economic opportunities, quality & availability of edu, affordable housing, nutrition, public transportation, availability to guns/ drugs
Individual factors
-personality traits, values, upbrining, propensity to addiction
what do we not know about crime?
why crime increase or decreases from yr to yr
should be careful of stories about increases or decreases in crime that are overly simplistic
What can cause crime to go up or down?
poverty, edu, drugs, cj, too many guns, not enough guns, moral poverty, violence, led paint
what is the politics of crime?
when politician talks about strucutral elements of crime that sets up rehabilitative policy options
when talking about personal failing, then tee up incapacitation or retribution policy options
What are the radical politics?
in 1960s?
civil rights movement highlights can breeze over how fraught social changes often is
long hot summer ‘67
-160 riots sweep urban centers in summer 1967
-detroit
-police raid african american bar; altercations break out
-5 day riots leaving 43 dead, 1200 injured 7200 arrest 2000 buildings destroyed
Why is crime highly salient?
violent crime is rising
fear of urban crime
-media & politicians explicitly link black civil rights movements w/ rising crime rates
public worried about lawlessness
-punitiveness increase
What changes (cj)?
politicians (left & right) repsond by remaking the CJ system
1) prisons & incarcerations
2) policing strategies & tactics
How do we remake the system of policing?
3 faces of traffic stops
public safety (low controversy)
revenue generation (high controversy)
proactive fighting crime (mixed)- comes from war on crime
how is pro active policing possible?
realization that there are 100s of low level statutory regulations that govern how we move
anytime you are behind the wheel of a car that is in motion, you are probably breaking a law
police discretion to make a stop is paramount
What is the Terry v Ohio(1968)?
police see 3 men acting strange outside store
thought they were casing store
approched them and patted them down
2 of the men had guns and were arrested
what was the Supreme court ruling from the Terry vs Ohio case?
Yes officer conducted a reasonable search
knew what he was looking for
scope limited to pat downs
open door to terry stop (stop and frisk)
What was the Whren v US 1996?
whren & friend driving in high drug area
2 plainclothes officers stopped them for turing at unreasonable speed w/ no signal
drugs found in plain sight- also in school zone stop
was the police constitutional in the Whern situation?
defense says traffic stop is only a pretext for a search
What did the Supreme Court say on the Whren vs US?
Stop is constitutional
you can legitimately be pulled over for a very minor violation of traffic laws
Where is the focus on pro active policing?
all about contraband recovered by making searches. See this in pics, text, from political rhetoric
very little to no focus on fruitless search
these fruitless searches are not costless in large picture of policing society etc
what are the tactics for criminal patrol ch 6?
consent search
how to get them to agree
people granted a right to say no but no one really knows they can
What is the controversies on CJ?
very blunt instrument for fighting crime
- most frisks do not recover any illegal contraband or result in any convictions
-reasonable suspicion is almost always wrong
-open & acknolwdge component of the program
racially targeted
-huge disparities
some neighborhoods get very intense scrutiny
-question momentary inconvience logic that dictates the burden of proof
what is some of the global comparisons of racial justic policy?
US high # of incarceration
iceland low # of incarceration
incompasitation
1 out of 5 in world is incacerated in US
How is this achieved?
Mandatory sentencing
- 3 strike laws
long prison sentences
-life with out parole
how does the public feel about mass incarceration?
Public support tough on crime and similar to change in the incaceration rate (they are high)
what is the consequences of incarceration?
lose right to vote
lose right to be free from discrimination in house, employment, access to edu, & other public benefits
right to serve on juries
socal stigma
Is prison costly compared to Edu?
High # amount spent on prisoners compared to edu
have to spend the money once you decide to incarcerate people
Okwhat is the race & racial attitudes?
most important elemtents in american politics
racial attitudes predict political behavior & policy support
- think social construction
What is racism?
old fashion racism
-belief of genetic or religious superoitity
-hundreds of yrs of slavery
-followed by at least 100 yrs of lawful racial heirarchy
-still exist today
What is structural racism?
designed to give some groups (typically white men) benefit of the doubt
greater scrutiny of qualifications/ motives of other groups
implicit bias seen as a major driver
how do we measure these things?
could ask people in surveys
feeling thermometers
what is the big question in cj?
what a police stop, search, arrest motivated by racial animus?
-extremely difficult to prove in most instances
- should we be allowed to look at aggregate statistic?
What is the racial history?
hundreds of yrs of slavery
followed by 100 yrs of lawful racial hierarchy
What is the reconstruction?
post civil war 1865-77
federal govt is calling the shots in south
-union soldiers are around
4 mil newly free african americans begin participating in public life
What happened in post reconstruction?
support for reconstruction collapses by mid 1870
-dems have retaken house
army troops w/drawal from south
rise of jim crow
failt to make good on promise of new freedom
-rewards south for treason w/ more representation
What happened in civil rights era (racial)?
venue shopping
-early victories in courts
- by 1960s political representation in congress is more favorable
civil rights act 1964
voting rights act 1965
rep party begins process of appealing to south whites
-southern strategy
What is the political realignment (racial)?
beginning of end of long relationship between dems and south
what can we make of them (racial)? Causal stories
disparities:
legacy of discrimination, structural studd, implicit bias
individual, cycles of poverty, history is history
goes a long way toward support of racial justice policies
what is the racial justice policies?
used in relation to CJ policies
-BLM seeks racial justice
broader definition would include any efforts to reduce racial inequalities
public policy created disparities so policy should help them
-count argument- sins of our ancestors are not our sins
what are the mechanism?
big & small
reparations
-cash payments to descendants of slaves
affirmative action
- prioritize the hiring of historically marginalized groups
WHat are the reparations (Racial)?
return artwork stolen by Nazis to Jewish families
pay money to descendants of slaves
return land to native peoples
What is the affirmative action ruling? (racial)
Grutter v Bollinger ‘03
-uphold action as practice
Gratz v Bollinger ‘03
-racial quoatas not allowed
diversity allowed to be an organizational goal
-diversity can mean many things
What is the cJ policies?
area where racial concerns play big part in policy debate
tough on crime period
what is the international comparison?
wide variet of institutional forms
other democracies have more parties
weaker executives
most democracies have stronger social safety net, somewhat weaker freedoms
what is the governments around the world?
russia president but not democracy
US president
parliamentary= UK Australia, etc but mandatory monarchy
France mixed party
cuba & china communism
saudia arabia- absolute monarchy
What is democracy in international comparisons?
democracy is good
rise in democracy, associated w/ the collapse of Soviot union
clientism- corruption
worrying symbols moving away from democracy
autocratic- not democracy (no voting)
poluntary state- govt trys to control peoples lives
what is the regime type?(figure)
AUthoritarian= place dont want to live in (CHina & afghanistan nicatagua)
hybrid
flawed democracies- peru india
full democracy- norway canada
what is a multi party system benefits?
less polarizatin
more parties
equity
what is multiparty system cons?
coalitiona govt
what is the health care in international comparison?
US different compared to other countries
-> spend more & spend more GDP
spend more better health care but compared to peers we have low life expectancy
what are other differences (internatinal comparison)?
military spend more and more expensive
higher edu, best in world for quality but everyone is catching up, not good for access cost
economic
Are the fundamentals the same?
theories of policymaking have been tested in a variety of democratic contexts
varying degrees we find that policy follows same pattern of change
what is the distributional analysis?
highly punctuated distribution of policy change are everywhere
looking internationally what mitigates these punctuations?
-reducing decion making costs
-but preserving information flows
-and incentives to respond
what about the rest of the world on distriubutional analysis?
data on non democracies is scarce so theory testing is much harder
theoretically we would expect much of the same
policy making in democracies does appear to deliver better outcomes on average
what are area of concerns in reforms?
policy bubbles- over investment in something not helpful
partisanship- effective polarization-> identity base
EX: filibuster threat (associate w/ senate) stalls senate & need majority vote
individual senators & parties do this to prevent something from passing
not allowing senate to presue
went from talking to just saying im filibuster
what is the electoral system (reform)?
less democratic elements of system
- senate
-electoral college
-gerrymandering
-voter suppression
election, democrats got fewer votes in house as % than they control seats
what frictions are on the rise?
both institutional & cognitive frictions appear to be on the rise
-polarization is a major driver
what are the drivers of misinformation in reforms?
political elites
social media algorithms
increasingly we worry about AI
what are smaller scale solutions?
political participation
-staying interested & involved is important even if we dont love either party
face to face interactions
-better than social media
actively working for common policy ground
what are the big scale solutions?
economic reinvention
-better access to higher edu
-reverse inequality
generational shift
-polarization is not really unprecedented
unifying conflict
-common enemy or goal
electoral change
