Exam 2 Flashcards
Define accuracy vs precision.
Accuracy is the ability of a measurement to be correct.
Precision is the ability of a measurement to give the same result. (AKA can I reproduce the same result)
Note:
Good accuracy would be hitting a bulls eye.
Good precision with bad accuracy would be missing the bullseye, but hitting the same spot consistently.
Good precision with good accuracy would be hitting a bullseye consistently.
What are the four possible scenarios for a diagnosis?
True Positive
False Positive (Type I error, alpha error)
True Negative
False Negative (Type II error, beta error)
What 3 things do we want in a good screening test?
Sensitivity
Specificity
Positive predictive value
Define sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity is the ability of a test to detect a disease when it is present (aka true positive and false negative)
Specificity is the ability of a test to detect a non-disease when it is absent (aka true negatives and false positives)
What does increased sensitivity mean?
More positives, less false negatives.
trade-off: more false positives as well.
What are the two types of positives/negative I can get?
True and false.
What is sensitivity measured by?
Number of true positives divided by # of people with the disease.
What is specificity measured by?
Number of true negatives divided by # of people without the disease.
What is the acronym for sensitivity and specificity?
SNOUT (sensitivity rules out)
SPIN (specificity rules in)
note:
The specific acronyms are:
Tests high in SeNsitivity. Negative results rules disease OUT.
Tests high in SPecificity. Positive results rules disease IN.
When do we want a highly sensitive test vs a highly specific test?
Sensitive tests are generally for screenings, since we just want to make sure a person DOES NOT HAVE the disease.
Specific tests are to confirm positive results, usually for patients that are positive in a screening.
How do I measure positive and negative predictive values?
PPV/PV+ is # of true positives divided by # of total positives.
NPV/PV- is # of true negatives divided by # of total negatives.
What does low pre-test probability correlate with?
A high number of false positives, which causes low PPV.
In class, we learned about the two serologic tests for HIV.
The ELISA test has high sensitivity, rapid, cheap, but not the gold standard.
The Western Blot test has high specificity, gold standard, but costs more and is slower.
When should I use each one?
I would use ELISA as the SCREENING test, because it is SNOUT.
If I got a positive, I need to confirm it, so I would use the Western blot since it is SPPIN/SPIN.
What are the 5 classifications used by the USPSTF?
A-D and I.
A = highly recommended.
B = recommended, few cons.
C = recommended to select pts, potential benefit.
D = not recommended, likely to cause harm.
I = not recommended due to insufficient evidence.
Does correlation = causation?
NO!!!!!!! :(
What is the difference between direct and indirect causal association?
Direct: If X then Y
Indirect: X can influence A/B/C, which then cause Y.
What is sufficient cause?
If the cause is present, disease will ALWAYS occur.
Note:
Very rare. Generally only certain genetic anomalies are 100% causal.
What is necessary cause?
The cause must be present for the disease to occur.
The cause may be present without the disease occurring.
AKA EBV causes mono, but getting EBV doesn’t mean you always get mono.
What is a risk factor?
Exposure, behavior, or attribute that CLEARLY increases probability of a particular disease in a group of people w/ the risk factor vs without.
What are the 3 requirements of a causal relationship?
Statistical association (AKA outcome must occur significantly more/less in individuals exposed to a presumed cause)
Temporal relationship (Presumed cause must occur prior to outcome)
Elimination of alternatives
What are the criteria for statistical association?
Strength
Consistent
Specificity
Biologic
Dose-response (pack year history)
What is a cross-sectional study?
A study that looks at data from a single point in time only.
AKA interview surveys from December of 2022.