Exam 2 Flashcards
What is hypothesis testing?
compares data to what we would expect to see if a specific null hypothesis were true. If the data are too unusual, compared to what we expect to see if the null hypothesis were true, then the null hypothesis is rejected
What is a null hypothesis?
- a specific statement about a population parameter made for the purposes of argument
- a statement that would be interesting to reject
- “default” hypothesis that has an interest of zero
- No effect, no preference, no correlation, no difference
- H0
What is an alternative hypothesis?
- The alternative hypothesis includes all other feasible values for the population parameter besides the value stated in the null hypothesis
- Includes possibilities that are biologically interesting
- Eg there is an effect, preference, correlation, difference
What is the language for hypothesis testing?
- The H0 is what is being tested
- If the data are consistent with H0 then you fail to reject it
- If the data are inconsistent with H0 then you reject it
- Rule out the null hypothesis
- You do not “prove” the HA, you can only “reject” or “fail to reject” the H0
What is the test statistic and give an example?
- The test statistic is a number calculated from the data that is used to evaluate how compatible the data are with the result expected under the null hypothesis
- In a study 18 toads were samples and 14 were observed to be right handed
- In this case the test statistic is 14 (or Pr = 14/18 = 0.7778)
What is the null distribution?
the sampling distribution of outcomes for a test statistic under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true
What is a p-value?
- the probability of obtaining the data or data showing as great or greater difference from the null hypothesis) given that the null hypothesis were true
- Sum probabilities of getting values as extreme as 14
What is a normal p-value in biology?
In many areas of biology a P-value < 0.05 is small enough to reject the null hypothesis
What is significance level? How is it used?
- alpha
- a probability used as a criterion for rejecting the null hypothesis
- If the P-value is less than or equal to alpha then the null hypothesis is rejected
- If the p-value is greater than alpha then the null hypothesis is not rejected
What is a type 1 error?
Type 1 error is rejecting a true null hypothesis. The significance level alpha sets the probability of committing a type 1 error
What is a type 2 error?
failing to reject a false null hypothesis
What is the power of a hypothesis test?
The power of a test is the probability that a random sample will lead to rejection of a false null hypothesis
What is the typical significance level (alpha level)?
Typically the alpha level is 0.05 (five percent)
How do you interpret a non-significant result from a hypothesis test?
- 94 % chance that we get our observed data given that the null hypothesis is true
- Data are compatible or consistent with the null hypothesis
- “Fail to reject the null hypothesis”
What is a 95% confidence interval?
95% confidence interval puts bounds on the most plausible population parameter based on your random sample
What two tests almost always give the same answer?
- ## Almost always, the 95% confidence interval and a hypothesis test give the same answer
How do you use a 95% confidence interval to support or reject a null hypothesis?
- If the 95% confidence interval includes the null (the test statistic) you say your data are consistent with the null hypothesis
- If the 95% confidence interval doesn’t include the null then you say your data are inconsistent with the null hypothesis
Which is better: hypothesis testing or confidence interval?
- Confidence interval has added benefit of giving actual magnitude
- P-value give qualitative magnitude (smaller p-value means greater ability to reject the null)
- Generally, a hypothesis test is used more often, but both are good approaches
What is a proportion?
- Proportion of observations in a given category
- P = (num in category / n)
- Ranges from zero to one
What is the binomial distribution?
The binomial distribution provides the probability distribution for the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials when the probability of the success is the same in each trial
How do you calculate the probability of (X) sucesses in a binomial distribution?
What is the sampling distribution of a proportion?
- P is the “real” proportion of the population (parameter)
- P(hat) is the estimated proportion from a sample (estimate/statistic)
What is the binomial test?
The binomial test uses data to test whether a population proportion (p) matches a null expectation (p0) for the population
What are the hypotheses in a binomial test?
- H0= the relative frequency of successes in the population is p0
- HA= the relative frequency of successes in the population is not p0
How do you perform a binomial test?
- Use binomial distribution formula to calculate probability of getting >= 10 successes in 25 samples with p = 0.061
- Sum these probabilities and multiply by 2 for two sided test
- P value is the probability of the observed data or more extreme data given that the null hypothesis is true
- If P value is below alpha level – 0.05, then reject the null hypothesis
- P = 2 x Pr[number of successes >= 10]
What is the standard error of a proportion?
- Recall that 𝑝̂ is the sample estimate and p is the (true) population proportion
- The standard error of a proportion tells you the precision (uncertainty) of the estimate (like how standard deviation tells you the precision of a mean
How do you calculate the confidence interval of a proportion?
- Textbook recommends Agresti-Coull
- First calculate the intermediate value and then check the range
- If the interval does not include the null proportion of 0.5 , data are inconsistent with the null
- Can be confident that the population proportion of females is much higher than 0.5
What is a goodness of fit test?
method of comparing an observed frequency distribution with the frequency distribution expected under a probability model
What are two examples of goodness of fit tests?
Chi squared and binomial test
Why is the binomial test limited?
the data must fit into two mutually exclusive outcomes