Exam Flashcards
Bureaucracy
- Administrative machinery of the state
- Help formulate and implement FP
Bureaucracy Core Characteristics
- Hierarchy, continuity, impersonality, and expertise
Bureaucratic Hierarchy
- Officials have to answer to superiors in defined sphere of confidence
Bureaucratic Continuity
- Permanent staff, full-time work with prospects for advancements
Bureaucratic Impersonality
- Work according to rules that eliminate arbitrary and politicized influence
Bureaucratic Expertise
- Officials with specialized training selected on merit
- Control access to knowledge
Dilemma Related to Autonomy and Accountability
- Bureaucratic freedom to make decisions vs. political control
Bureaucracies Influence on FP
- Institutional interests/path dependence
- Standard operation procedures
- Competing bureaucratic interests
- Barnett and Finnemore
Cuban Missile Crisis
- Graham Allison
- Rational Actor Model
- Organizational Process Model
- Bureaucratic Politics Model
Rational Actor and Cuba
- Rely on assumptions about states as unitary and rational actors
- Cannot explain why USSR deployed missiles or the US response
Path Dependence and Institutional Interests of Bureaucracies
- When change occurs, it is path-dependent
- Existing rules foreclose some options bias outcomes
Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)
- Rule following
- Established habits, routines, and procedures shape decision-making
- Levy
WW1 and Path Dependence
- Levy
- Big countries had mobilization plans that made it hard to step back
- Whoever struck first had the advantage
Competing Interests and Turf Wars in Bureaucracy
- Actors’ policy positions are determined by their positions within government
Obama’s Troops Surge in Afghanistan
- Different bureaucratic roles predicted who wanted what
Bureaucratic Influence on Policy Implementation
- Bureaucracies guard data and info
- Sources of specialized knowledge
Information Challenges
- Coordination failures across departments
- Overlapping jurisdictions
- Disagreements about authority in policy
Canada’s Whole-of-Government Approach
- 3-Ds, defence, diplomacy, and development in Afghanistan
International Bureaucracies
- Large bureaucracies with similar characteristics
- IBs are autonomous and can shape state FP
Individuals and FP
- Challenge assumptions about states as unitary, rational actors
Rosenau’s Five Factors
- International system
- Societal envrionment
- Government setting
- Bureaucratic roles of policymakers
- Individual characteristics of FP elites
Agency
- Hayes, how much impact an individual can have
Structure
- Hayes, material conditions that define range of options available
First Image
- Waltz, man
- Theories that may emphasize the role of individuals
Second Image
- Waltz, state
- Theories that emphasize the state to explain FP
Third Image
- Waltz, war
- Focusing on the international system as a whole
- Where states fit in explains their behaviour
Napoleonic Wars First Image
- Napoleon himself and his beliefs
Napoleonic Wars Second Image
- Domestic characteristics
- French Revolution was threatening to other states governed by monarchies
Napoleonic Wars Third Image
- Shifting alliances and the big picture
Individual Factors
- Personality and leadership style
- Psychological factors
- Ascriptive characteristics
- Socialization and past experience
Promotional Leadership
- Conducive to groupthink
- If a leader has a preferred course of action, groupthink is more likely
Personality and Leadership Style
- Openness to advice vs. promotional leadership
- Degree of risk aversion
- Willingness to compromise
Active/Passive Leadership
- Hands-on vs. laissez-faire
Positive/Negative Leadership
- Empowering vs. autocratic
Trump and Tariffs
- Evidence does not support the reasons given
- Even with genuine concerns that escalation was very fast
- Function of Trump’s personality
Psychological Factors
- Jervis, leads to misperception among decision-makers
Misperceptions
- Confirmation bias
- Availability heuristics
- Cognitive dissonance
- Perception of intent
Availability Heuristics
- People are more likely to learn from things that are memorable
- E.g. dramatic events
Perception of Centralization/Intent
- Assume things others have done are deliberate
- Think own actions are less circumstantial
Pandemic Preparedness
- AH and Covid, personal experiences will be more easily recalled
- Influence future responses
Ascriptive Characteristics
- Gender, age, religion, nationality, etc.
Women as Peacemakers
- COO of Meta says that women don’t go to war
- Not so much about gender, essentialist
- Sticky argument that hasn’t gone away
Peacemakers or Iron Ladies
- Schramm and Stark, gender impacts
- Female leaders perform stereotypical masculine behaviour to prove they have leadership characteristics
Socialization and Past Experience
- Education and professional background
- Ideology and values
- Societal expectations
- National role conceptions
US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson
- CEO of Exxon Mobil, shaped SoS, e.g. Paris withdrawal
- He was used to systematic hierarchy and Trump was disorganized
Hallmarks of FPA
- Actor-specific information and theory
- Multicausal and multi-level explanations
- Variety of methods
- Decision-making is just as important as FP outputs
Levels of Analysis in FPA
- International system
- State level
- Individuals
Case Study
- Bennett and George, aspect of a historical episode
- Might examine action, reaction, or inaction
- Single event or pattern of behaviour
Case
- Class of events
- Single event can be a case of many things
The War in Ukraine Cases
- Single event, case of many things
Advantages of Case Studies
- Deep, contextual understanding of outcomes
- Exploring causal mechanisms
- Assessing complex causal relationships
- New hypotheses
Descriptive Case Studies
- Detailed account of an FP event or outcome
Explanatory Case Studies
- Seek to explain why a particular decision was made
Comparative Case Studies
- Compare two or more cases to identify patterns
Theory-Testing Case Study
- Use a case to test an existing theory
Theory-Building Case Study
- Draw on specific FP outcomes/events to develop new theories
Case Studies: Step by Step
- Select the case and define a research question
- Gather and analyze data
- Apply theories and draw conclusions
Defining the Research Question
- Narrow scope with defined key terms
Gathering Data
- Primary sources include government documents etc.
- Secondary sources are scholarly research etc.
- Avoid over-reliance on one type
Analyzing Decision Making
- Review data from multiple sources
- Causal mechanisms and temporal sequencing
Process Tracing
- Bennett and George, method attempts to identify causality between the independent variable and the outcome
Process Tracing Collier
- Tool of causal inference focuses on unfolding events or situations over time
Retaliatory Tariffs
- Process tracing helps us understand that it was a reaction to the US
Applying Theoretical Frameworks
- Importance of identifying rival theories to account for a particular outcome
- Selective about number of theories
Theory
- A way of considering knowledge
Theories and Observable Implications
- Things we expect to see if a theory is correct
- Falsifiable, clear evidence suggests theory is incorrect
Individuals and Canadian FP
- Variation from PMs from the same part
- Same policies points to the party
Multi-Causal Explanations in FPA
- Identifying which factors are likely to be more important
- Provides theoretical justification
Multi-Level Explanations in FPA
- Consider international, state, and individual levels
- One level can influence others
Drawing Conclusions in FPA
- Address questions about generalizability
- Importance of specifying scope conditions
- Mid-range theory beyond one case but not universal
Pacifism and Japanese FP
- Article 9 of their Constitution renounces war as a sovereign right
- Gave up militarization entirelyY
Yoshida Doctrine
- 1950s, close ties with US
- Strong focus on economic growth
- Japan self-defense forces
1951 Mutual Security Treaty
- Reliance on US security was guaranteed
Japan Lessons Learned from Military Defeat
- Many dead and destroyed cities
- First time being defeated by a foreign power
- US-led occupation and then constitutional monarchy
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
- 1945, 2 atomic bombs dropped
- Killed 150,000-200,000 people
- Only use of nukes in armed conflict
Why did the US Atomic Bomb Japan
- Victory in Europe and needed to end the war quickly
- Called for Japanese surrender and they didn’t
- Discussion about racism
Limitations of Institutional Explanations
- Berger says it doesn’t add up
US and the Japanese Constitution
- Douglas McArthur held the pen
- Not lessons Japan took away if it was the US
Three Factors Against Japanese Pacifism
- Remnants of ethnocentric nationalism
- Militarization did not disappear overnight
- Not as much war guilt
Strong Group-Loyalty and Decision-Making Decentralization in Japan
- Mutual accommodation among leading institutions
- Once groups arrive at an idea, it’s hard to deviate, inertia
Japanese Rules are Open to Interpretation
- Legal and constitutional changes are possible
- 1992 International Peace Cooperation Act
Yasukuni Shrine Controversy
- Tokyo shrine with 14 leaders convicted of Class A war crimes
- China and Korea see visits to it by Japanese leaders as provocative
- Enough visits to cast out explanations of generalized pacifism
Constructivist Explanation
- Berger, national identity
- National culture of anti-militarism
- Norms against militarism shape FP
- Weak regional secuirty institutions
Japanese National Identity
- Japan as a democracy and ‘peace nation’
Japanese Culture of Anti-Militarism
- Visible in public opnion and opposition to changes in Japanese defence policy
- Not just in law but also in society
Pacifist Policy Making
- Berger, anti-militarism leads to fully exclude them from speaking to political leaders
Gulf War
- Culture of militarism creates constraints
- Japan was under pressure by US to contribute
- Said sovereignty was important but the crisis did not trump pacifism
Japan Reliance on US
- US secuirty guarantees and the ‘nuclear umbrella’
- Japan SDF complements US capabilities, defensive
- Will change depending on contunuing secuirty cooperation
Japan and UN Peacekeeping
- 1992, International Peace Cooperation Act
- End of Cold War increased US peacekeeping
- Number of missions and amount troops deployed increased
Realist Explanations of Japanese FP
- Lind, scholars underestimate Japan military capabilities
- GDP is a misleading stat, better to look at total defense spending
- Japan’s total defense spending is large
Offensive Realism
- Great powers will seek regional hegemony
Defensive Realism
- States must be vigilant
- Expansionism is counter productive
- Easier than offense
Realist FP Strategies
- Conquest, off
- Bandwagoning, off
- Balancing, def
- Buck-passing, def
Conquest
- Offensive strategy aimed at expansion and regional hegemony
Bandwagoning
- Offensive strategy aimed at alignment with a strong state to benefit from them
Balancing
- Defensive strategy based on building military power, finding allies, and confronting aggressive states
Buck-Passing
- Defensive strategy in which threats are recognzied
- State does as little as possible to balance, relying on other instead
US-Japan Secuirty Cooperation
- Buck-passing to te US
- Are under US ‘nuclear umbrella’ but could get weapons if they needed too
Japan-US Post-Cold War
- 80s and 90s, concerns about growing Japanese influence
- Worried Japan would be next big rival
Are Realists Wrong?
- Bergher, Japan’s reason not to rearm is related to anti-militarism
- With Article 9 it’ll be fine
Lind and Bergher
- Lind says Bergher is wrong in 2004
- Scholars underestimate Japan’s military capabilities
Passing the Buck on Secuirty and Defense
- Threats are recognized but the state does little to balance, and rely on others instead
- Japan’s relationship with the US
Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
- 55,000 US troops and 15 bases in Japan
- Article 5, US must defend Japan from third-party attack
Contemporary Burden Sharing
- IPCA allowed overseas UN peace operation deployments
- Japan was limited
National Security Strategy, 2013
- Proactive contribution to peace
- Shift in idea it is not enough to passively defend self
- Proactively contribute to UN Peackeeping
Reinterpret Article 9, 2015
- Legislation passed to allow for collective self-defence operations
- Similar to NATO arrangement
Defence Buildup Program, 2022
- Moved target defence spending from 1%-2%
- Increase in defence spending every year for 13 years
Arms Exports, 2024
- Japan decided to relax the rules on arms exports
- Including fighter jets
Evolving Regional Security Threats in Japan
- Geographic proximity to three autocratic, nuclear-armed states
- Territory disputes with China
- North Korean nuclear missile tests
Democratic Insitutions and Decision-Making in Japan
- Voters are concerned about threats, Article 9 remains
- Public opinion still constrains turn
- Doubling defense spending has budgetary implications
Cultural Constraints on Decision-Making in Japan
- Voters may feel threats are overblown
- Suspicion of revisionist ‘ideologies’
- Questions about threat analysis
- Persistent cultural antimiltarism
Suspicion of Revisionist ‘Ideologies’ in Japan
- Ultra-conservatives with other policy objectives
- People see defence changes as intertwined with societal changes to conservativism
Persistent Cultural Antimilitarism in Japan
- Young people do not see the military as an appealing career path
- Cultural factors stop move to a more self-sufficient defence policy
Revisionist Ideology and Domestic Politics
- Suzuki and Wallace, the Japanese public more skeptical than ever
- Conservatives who want Japan to be independent have a wider agenda
Future of Japan
- Bergher, Japan’s stance on defence is fine if US-Japan relations are sound
- Relations are under friction
International Level Japan
- Reliability of US security guarantees
- Regional security dynamics
- Will US abide by 1960 guarantees or does Japan need to calibrate
National Level Japan
- Shifting culture of anti-militarism
- Fiscal and demographic constraints
Individual Level Japan
- Cross-cutting beliefs and priorities of key Japanese policymakers
- E.g. revisionist vs. pacifist vs. ‘proactive pacifist’
Puzzle of the Iraq War
- What explains the US decision to invade by early 2003?
- What explains the approach to the subsequent occupation?
Gulf War
- Iraq invades Kuwait, its neighbour
- Pushback from international community
Operation Desert Storm
- Launched by the UN and defeated Iraq
- Concern was Iraqi WMD
Concern with Iraq
- Thought Iraq was acquiring WMD
UN SC WMD
- Process to oversee destruction of Iraq’s WMD program
- 1991-1998 destroyed many successfully
- Iraqi compliance was on and off
1999 WMD UN
- Replaced the existing team and creates the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission
Iraq 2002-2003
- Escalating tensions and non-compliance allegations from the US
Hans Blix
- Executive Chairman of the WMD project reported Iraqi cooperation
Divisions in UNSC
- Confrontation between traditional allies
Confrontation Between Traditional Allies
- US and UK vs. France, Germany, and others
- US and UK wanted authorization for war, allies said no
March 2003 Diplomacy
- US declares it has failed in Iraq
- ‘Coalition of the Willing’
Coalition of the Willing
- Adress the threat from Iraq
- States thought it was in their interests to stay on the right side of the US
Colin Powell and the UN
- Went with a powerpoint to try to convince the UNSC
Global Protests and Public Opinion About Iraq
- February 15, 2003, global day of protests
- Did not constrain decision makers because US polls did not reflect the unhappiness
Operation Iraqi Freedom
- March 20, 2003, US and allies launched military operation
- Shock and awe bombing campaign, then ground invasion
- May 2003, Bush declared mission accomplished
How was Iraq Invasion Justified?
- Grave threat of WMDs to the US and world
- Freeing oppressed people
- March 19, 2003 speech
After the Invasion in Iraq
- No WMDs were found and there was a violent insurgency
- A lot of death and human rights violations and alleged war crimes
Realism and Iraq
- Disavowed the war, vocally opposed
- Did not serve US interests
- Blamed it on liberalism gone too far, regime change for democracy
Liberalism and Iraq
- Blamed it on realism, push to maintain US primacy
US Hegemony and the Invasion of Iraq
- Refusal to go through the UNSC is inconsitent with liberalism
- US pursuit of hegemonic primacy and security threat
- Disdain for multilateral institutions
Role of Domestic Factors in Iraq
- Prevalence of neo-conservative ideology in decision-makers
- Post-9/11 vulnerability
- 1% doctrine
- Overestimating probability of success
1% Doctrine
- Even if there is only a 1% chance of grave threat materializing, must be treated as a ‘certainty’
- Bush
Neoconservatism
- Applies to FP and domestically
- Combines realism and liberalism, 1970s origins
- Promotion in the 1980s and 1990s
Neoconservatism Domestically
- Neos were concerned about US being a welfare state and having too many single mothers
Neoconservatism Origins
- Liberals shifted due to US failure in Vietnam
- Didn’t succeed but was a noble war so stop beating selves up
Neoconservatism 1980s and 1990s
- Subscribers became influential under Clinton
- Senior during Bush
Core Tenets of Neoconservatism
- Moral clarity about US role in world
- US should maitain military preeminence
- US should leverage military pwower in FP
- Skepticism about IL and MI
Neoconservative Moral Clarity
- America is good and needs a bad guy
- USSR during Cold War, Iraq after 9/11
Neoconservative US Preeminence
- Good for US and the world for them to remain on top
Neoconservative US Military Power
- Should be willing to use force in US FP
Neoconservative Skepticism
- International law and multilateral institutions were designed by weak states to limit US power
- Democracy and free markets are good
Post 9/11 Sense of US Vulnerability
- Without 9/11 there wouldn’t have been Iraq
- Saddam Hussein tenuous links to Al-Qaeda
- US Congress support
- Opinion polls
US Congress Support for Iraq
- No one wanted to be seen as ‘soft’ on national security
- No one wants to be the person who voted against it just in case
Overestimating Odds of Success
- Assumptions that Iraqis would greet US as ‘liberators’
- Optimistic planning for troops needed
- Limited and confused planning for post-war Iraq
Iraqis and US ‘Liberators’
- US disbanded Iraqi secuirty forces which left a lot of people unemplyed
- People were unhappy with the US
US Troop Numbers in Iraq
- General said they’d need 500,000, went in with 160,000
- Didn’t have the troops to maintain security
Bush Doctrine
- Unilateralism
- Pre-emptive use of force
- Regime change
Bush Unilateralsim
- Willingness to act without UN approval
Bush Pre-emptive Use of Force
- US right to secure itself before an attack occurs
Bush Regime Change
- Spreading freedom and democracy by removing autocrats
March-April 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Coalition troops overwhelm Iraqi security forces
- Hussein goes into hiding
May 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Bush declares end of major combat with his speech
23 May 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Iraqi army and intelligence services were disbanded
August 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Suicide bombing at UN headquarter in Iraq kills people
January 2004 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Search for WMDs ends and CIA acknowledges there was no stockpile
April 2004 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Abu Ghraib prison scandal
September 2004 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Battle for Fallujah, allied military operation against insurgents
January 2005 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Iraqi parliamentary elections are held
- Sunni minority boycott because Hussein was Sunni
- Shia alliance as largest block
What Happened?
- WMDs weren’t there
- US was not welcome
- Could not maintain order
- Democracy is slow
- Spillover effects
Spillover Effects in Iraq
- Members of Al Qaeda were using Iraq as a base after the war
- Empowered Iran
Declining Public Support for US Invasion of Iraq
- 2003, 71% of people are on board
- 2007, 40%
- Opinion changes because of the result
Bureacratic Politics and the Iraq War
- Bush’s advisors were competing
- DOD v. DoS, created factions
Group Dynamics and FP
- Many decisions are made by small groups
- Key factors; internal group cohesion, leadership structure, and external pressures
Groupthink and Anticipatory Compliance
- Janis, Badie
- In hierarchy, group members are motivated to support leaders without being told to
Self-Censorship and Condoleza Rice
- Massoud, she was supposed to manage information to keep Bush informed
- Shared only what she thought he would want to hear
Leadership Style Key Traits
- Controlling events
- Conceptual complexity
- Distrust
- Ingroup bias
- Need for power
- Self-confidence
- Task emphasis
Belief in Ability to Control Events
- Acitivst policy agendas, less willing to compromise
- US tried to control what the Iraqis thought
Conceptual Complexity
- See more nuances and shades of grey
- Seek out alternative opinions
Distrust
- Conviction that statements and actions of others are insincere
- Distrust of Hussein made US not trust Blix
Ingroup Bias
- Perception that one’s own group is best
- Commitment to its status
Need for Power
- Desire to influence, control, or dominate others
- Suppression of dissent
- Certain leaders feel confident in choices so are less sensistive to information from the environment
Task Emphasis
- Focus on task completion over feelings and needs of others
Variation Within the Bush Administration
- Shannon and Keller
- Variation in leadership styles explains willingness to violate norms
Leadership Style and Norm Violation
- Shannon and Keller
- Bush members that ranked higher were more likely to assume threats
Impact of Leadership Styles
- Mitchell and Massoud, Bush leadership style
Bush Leadership Style
- Hierarchical, insular, gut instinct, action-oriented
Bush Hierarchical Leadership
- Came from the corporate world
Bush Insular Leadership
- Preferred advice from close and loyal advisors
Bush Gut Instinct
- Rapid and ad hoc decision-making
Bush Action-Oriented
- Reluctant to go back on choices he had made
Future of FPA
- Global rise of populism
- Third wave of ‘autocratization’
- New media and information enviornment
Populism
- Politics should be an expression of the general will of the poeple
- Paired with other ideologies
Populism and FP
- Wajner et al, form on the rise is right wing and authoritarian
Authoritarian Populsim
- Combines anti-elite sentiment and people-centrism with nationalism, majoritarianism, and decisionsism
- Implications for politics, policies, and polities
Majoritarianism
- Majority should rule and protections for minorities get in the way
Decisionism
- Dispensing with regular procedures and processes to make FP decisions
Authoritarian Populism Politics
- How FP actually ets made
- Centralization and personalization
Authoritarian Populism Policies
- Tends to favour policies aimed at reasserting national sovereignty
Authoritarian Populism Polities
- Skepticism about existing world order
Centralization and Personalization
- Wajner et al, skepticism of FP elites
- Cult of leadership
- Dispense with normal procedures and deliberations
Cult of Leadership
- Populism marginalizes experts
- Person at the top with their inner circle
Dispense with Normal Procedures
- Leader-centric meetings
- Traditionally FP is junior policy officer who’s been working on a project and then works its way up the ladder
- Leader becomes the centre
Emphasis of Sovereignty
- Freedom of action, no constraints
- Less willing to negotiate or compromise
Pragmatic Policy with Rhetorical Confrontation
- Might be time where the rhetoric is confrontational
- Quietly the occasional compromise
Reject Historical Responsibilities
- Populsim, do not accept they are bound by prior agreements
Conesting Liberal International Order
- Opposition to multilateralism and liberal institutions
- Global governance as target of politicization and national sovereingty
- Pushback against IBs
- Alternative institutions and orders
Varities of Democracies Project
- Number of people living in democracies has declined since 2004
- Wave of autocratization
Public Opinion, Media, and FP
- Baum and Potter
- Assumptions about info assymmetries between public and FP elites
- Media plays key role in attracting public attention
CNN Effect
- If you had dramatic widely available video coverage of an event the average voter will start to care
- Somalia, the US intervened and people paid attention because it got a lot of coverage on CNN
Living Room War
- Vietnam wasn’t on radards until the draft
What Has Changed?
- Baum and Potter, information and media environment has changed
- Media fragmentation
