Exam Flashcards
Sin Stocks?
Sin stocks are stocks of companies that are involved in industries considered to be morally questionable or controversial, such as tobacco, alcohol, gambling, and adult entertainment. These stocks are called “sin stocks” because they are perceived to be indulging in “sinful” or socially irresponsible activities.
Despite their controversial nature, sin stocks can be attractive to some investors because they often generate high profits and may be resistant to economic downturns. Companies in these industries typically have a loyal customer base and can maintain stable revenue streams even during times of recession.
However, investing in sin stocks can be a sensitive issue for some investors due to ethical considerations. Some investors may choose to avoid these stocks entirely based on their personal values and beliefs.
It is important to note that investing in any stock involves risks and rewards, and investors should carefully consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and values before making any investment decisions.
Mutual funds and Hedge funds hold more sin stocks compared to e.g., pension funds.
EMH?
Weak, semi and strong.
Weak: “You cannot study past or current stock prices in order to predict future prices, since price changes are independent.”
Semi strong: Current and past events can give signal about the future. Good investors could use this for their advantage and get abnormal returns.
Strong: If markets are characterised by strong efficiency, all information is reflected in stock prices. You cannot win over the market due to every piece of information are already calculated into the share price (no abnormal returns).
With EHM shouldn’t be able to pick stocks that beats the market.
Negative screening process?
Temporarily lower demand and price —>
Creates an arbitrage opportunity —>
“Unethical” investor buys more —>
Pushes prices back up.
Positive screening process?
Temporarily raises demand and price —>
Creates an arbitrage opportunity —>
Unethical” investor sells more —->
Pushes prices back down.
Negative screening?
– Reject securities from your portfolio, based on moral preferences (tobacco, porn, fossil fuels…)
– “Don’t do bad”
– “Boycott” – the same as in product markets?
Positive screening?
– Include only securities in your portfolio based on some moral goal function.
– “Charity”
– Sometimes argued to be better in the long-term
Stranded assets ?
You have the assets, but you will not be able to extract and use them. This risk is not fully reflected in the security prices. Current asset pricing models does not account for downside-risks.
This is due to increased regulations.
Assets that have lost their value due to:
- regulation
- competing technology
- consumer pressure
Hazards/Limitation for compensation contracts?
- Managerial power view = The CEO has a non-trivial influence on the compensation package (beyond productivity).
- The more power the CEO has, the more use of an “arms length” strategy the CEO use.
- It’s not certain that the manager will seek to maximise shareholders utility.
How can a manager affect a project?
A manager doesn’t choose if a project will be successful or fail. But they can affect the probability for success or fail - based on what effort they choose to put on the project (asymmetric information for the outsiders). Outsider can only observe the outcome but not the effort.
Why put in low effort in a project?
Managers need compensation to put in effort.
What is needed for a manager to put in high effort?
You need to fufill (Ph)C > (pL)C+B (whereas C is compensation och B is private benefit). pH pL is probability of high and low success.
Executive compensation for managers (short and long term) ?
Short term or Long term incentives.
- Salary, Annual bonuses (short term)
- Defined pension plans, Benefits, Stock options (long term)
Differences in terms of compensation?
Countries pays different amount in compensation (for example does US managers get “payed” more than the UK managers in terms of for example option payed bonuses).
Bebchuck and fried (2003) Optimal contracting and managerial power ?
Aligning shareholder and managerial incentives (to overcome the agency problem). Incentive contracts!
The main problem is that political constraints prevent companies to implement incentives that are sufficiently high-powered.
“The higher the price they get for you - the higher compensation” - where is the margin ? “Managers does also want to go home to their kids.” To find correct incentives to work the extra hours is important.
Power-pay relationships: Executive compensation is higher when?
-Boards are weaker.
-No large outside shareholder is present.
-Institutional ownership is less concentrated.
-Takeover defences are stronger (golden parachutes etc).
What is stopping the power relationships?
Outrage factor. (Shareholders outrage)
- If you pay the CEO too much, people will be upset. You want to avoid this because of the bad publicity.
Shareholders become less inclined to support managers and directors in proxy contests or takeover bids.
Rational respons to the outrage factor?
Camouflage!
- Managers want to avoid or minimise the outrage of outsiders recognition of rent extraction.
- Incentives to obscure or legitimize rent extraction.
Camouflage in practice examples?
Compensation consultant, Stealth compensation and Non-contracted goodbye contracts.
Compensation consultant?
Outside consults often used in designing and communicate compensation packages.
Incentives to justify executive compensation rather than optimising it.
- Provide data that justifies higher compensation.
- Make use of consultants afterwards to justify compensations.
- Compensation often set at or above the median.
Stealth compensation?
Firms use pay practices that make total compensation and pay-performance ratio more opaque. (You hide more visible compensation such as salary and uses the alternative below).
- Pension plans
- Deferred compensation
- Post retirement perks
- Consulting contracts
Executive loans?
Not allowed anymore.
Gratuitous goodbye payments (part of camouflage) ?
Give the CEO a lot of money when firing him/her (a lump sum). Makes no sense - but it’s inline with managerial power. The board of directors does this to look good - for future people to know that they treat their CEO’s good.
Suboptimal pay structures?
Pay without performance.
- Large cash components
- Stealth compensation
- Call for more equity based comp in the 1990s.
At-the-money options.
Unintended consequences from incentives (Vann 2023)?
Vann (2003) - Rat-hunt example. Compensation by for every rat they kill - they get an award. Incentives was that people began to breed rats and cut off their tails and get the compensation.
Earnings management (unintended consequences from incentives)?
Expectation management:
Earnings forecasts
Accruals management:
Earnings smoothing, clean-bath accounting (big bath), Steering accounting ratios.
Real earnings management:
Manipulation operative activates with the purpose of changing the outcome of the accounting system.
-Reducing discretionary spending (cuts R&D, sales, admin etc).
-Discount to boost sales.
-Overproduction to increase COGS.
Conclusion for the Compensation-lesson?
See pic.
What did CEO’s say about long-term earnings?
They rather focus on the short-term earnings - by using earnings management.
“If the share price goes bananas, the weekend for the CEO is lost” - Conny 2023.
Thus, they want to avoid this and manipulates the accruals etc.
Measurement problems of ESOs?
Illiquidity = Employees can generally not trade options and they are thus illiquid.
Vesting period =
- Makes the option worthless if the owner exit in the vesting period.
- A mix of vested and non-vested options; The non-vested options should be worth less than the vested options.
Which stock price? The current stock price? But we are valuing these options to arrive at a value per share. We need the option value to estimate value per share, and the value per share to estimate the option value!
Taxation -when the option is exercised firms can pay relatively less in tax.
Universal Ownership?
Universal ownership is large owners with well diversified portfolios with a long investment horizon and will therefore be affected by external events. Example is pension funds.
In theory - the value of the firms is the PV of future cash flows. We don’t know how e.g., hazard environmental changes will affect future cash flows and therefore the value.
Universal owners want to mitigate these negative externalities as much as possible.
Reasons behind M&A?
Could be horizontal, vertical or conglomerate.
Horizontal integration = Economies of scale - larger volumes and thus lower average costs and more efficiency.
Economies of scope.
Conglomerate reason could be e.g., managerial incentives and building an empire.
More examples could be expertise transfers, monopoly gain (SF for example).
Event studies and abnormal return?
First you need to know what the normal return of a company is.
You can use different models to calculate abnormal return - for example the Constant expected mean return model - see pic.
Abnormal return is found by calculating AR = R - (Average) R.
Constant Expected Return Model?
AR = R - (mean)-R.
The difference of the expected return on the event day and the expected normal return(average).
Market Model(simplified)?
The difference between the return on the event day and the return of the market on the same day (following an appropriate index).
AR = R - (Market)R.
Market model (not simplified)?
You use the estimation window to estimate the alpha and beta of the underlying firm against an index.
This model adjust the AR with the correlation to the market as well as the over-or under performance it should have from using the alpha.
What can one do to prevent the Tax problem for ESOs?
i. Reduce tax rates on operating income to reflect employee option deductions (difficult!)
ii. Tax Effect: the exercise value of options: multiply the difference between the stock price today and the exercise price by the tax rate (only in-the-money options).
iii. Tax Effect: the fair value of options: After-tax Value of Options = Value from option pricing model (1-tax rate) (even for out of the money options!).
Grant dating game? (Back dating)
Managers take advantages of the granting date to his factor and increase his compensation and therefor value of the ESOs.
Example: See pic.
Accounting for Employees stock options?
IV and Fair value.
(Aineas) Formula for raised shares with spread? IPO
(IPO price * “Issued shares”)*(1-underwriting spread) = Value from the IPO.