Evaluate the extent to which the main factor influencing voting patterns in presidential elections is ethnicity.

Question 1

Introduction - Themes

Answer 1

• Ethnicity
• Religion
• Gender

Question 2

Introduction - Argument

Answer 2

All of these three factors play a role in influencing the voting decisions in presidential elections; however, belonging to an ethnic minority is still a bigger dictator of how someone will vote

Question 3

Not Influential - Ethnicity - Point

Answer 3

In the US, ethnic minorities are often discriminated against by electioneering policies. This curbs the influence of the ethnic vote. Moreover, there are ethnicities where influence is far less pronounced

Question 4

Not Influential - Ethnicity - Examples

Answer 4

• The Senate is currently block the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act which would stop attempts across the US by Republicans to erode easy acess to voting
• In 2020, the margin for white people voting for the Republicans dropped 12% to just 8%, Trump had 58% of the white vote compared to Biden’s 41%

Question 5

Influential - Ethnicity - Point

Answer 5

The curbing of the ethnic vote does not stop the incredibly pronounced voting patterns from ethnic groups

Question 6

Influential - Ethnicity - Examples

Answer 6

• Since the 11 elections between 1980 and 2020, black Americans have alway give at least 83% support to the Democrats. In 2020, Biden gained 87% of the vote from this group
• In 2020, 65% of Hispanic voters voted for Biden and only 32% for Trump. In the Asian groups, 61% voted in favour of Biden and only 34% for Trump

Question 7

Influential - Religion - Point

Answer 7

Much like ethnicity there are some very distinct voting patterns with certain religious groups. This means that religion could be considered the most influential factor on voting behaviour

Question 8

Influential - Religion - Examples

Answer 8

• One of the Republicans core support bases is the white evangelical group. In 2020, Trump won this category overwhelmingly with 76% of the vote compared to Biden’s 24%
• The Jewish population tend to be much more supportive of the Democrats. This pattern was illustrated in 2020 when 76% of the Jews voted for Biden compared to just 21% for Trump

Question 9

Not Influential - Religion - Point

Answer 9

There are some discrepancies with religious groups which means that religion is not the main factor which influences voting patterns

Question 10

Not Influential - Religion - Examples

Answer 10

• The Catholic vote has alaways been relatively evenly split between the Republicans and Democrats. In 2020, they favoured Biden 52% of the vote, however, in 2016 they favoured Trump with 50% of the vote
• Although the Republicans win the White Evangelical vote overall, there has been a massive increase in certain parts of the US. In Georgia, Biden won 14% of the vote, but this was a drastic increase from the 5% Clinton gained

Question 11

Influential - Gender - Point

Answer 11

In the US there is a gender gap in which women tend to vote more in favour of the Democrats than men. This has been exaggerated by Trump and his controversies surrounding women

Question 12

Influential - Gender - Examples

Answer 12

• In May 2023, a jury found Trump guilty of sexual assult against E Jean Carroll, this is one of a number of cases that have been filed against him
  Women tend to vote in favour of the Democrats - in 2020, women voted 57% in favour of Biden and only 42% in favour of Trump

Question 13

Not Influential - Gender - Point

Answer 13

It is not as simple as all women vote in favour of the Democrats, there are certain sections of women which do not follow this trend, illustrating how another influenence is more important

Question 14

Not Influential - Gender - Examples

Answer 14

• In 2020, white women actually voted in favour of Trump with 55% voting for him comparied to just 44% for Biden. This illustrates the importance of ethnicity over gender
• The percentage of women voting Republican only dropped 3% in 2020 from 2012