EST Flashcards
Predictable Variability
is change in demand that can be forecasted
cause increased costs and decreased responsiveness
Options for Predictable Variability
- Manage supply using capacity, inventory,
subcontracting, and backlogs - Manage demand using short-term price
discounts and promotions
Managing capacity
Time flexibility from workforce
seasonal workforce
subcontracting
dual facilities – specialized and flexible
Designing product flexibility into production processes
Managing inventory
common components
high demand or predictable products
Managing Demand
MSF
With promotion, three factors lead to
increased demand
1. Market growth
2. Stealing share
3. Forward buying
Factors influencing timing of a promotion
– Impact of promotion
– Cost of holding inventory
– Cost of changing the level of capacity
– Product margins
Conclusions on Promotion
Average inventory increases if a promotion is
run during the peak period
Big increase in consumption + forward buying smaller fraction of demand increase from promotion = peak period profitable
Product Margin decline= peak period less profitable
Implementing Sales and Operations
Planning in Practice
Plan across supply chain
Account for Predictable variability
Senior Leader to own S&OP process
S&OP process modifies plans as the reality or forecasts change
Supply chain coordination
all stages of the align actions to increase total supply chain surplus
each stage share information and consider effects of its actions on the other stages
Lack of coordination results when
Objectives of stages conflict
Information delayed or distorted
Impact of Lack of Coordination
each stage maximize its own profits, resulting in actions that often diminish total supply chain
Information is distorted
increased inventories, poorer product availability, and lower profits
Bullwhip Effect
- Fluctuations in orders increase as they
move up the supply chain - Distorts demand information within the
supply chain - Due to a loss of supply chain
coordination
Effect on Performance of lack of coordination
MITRRLL
increases variability and hurts supply chain surplus
– Manufacturing cost
– Inventory cost
– Replenishment lead time
– Transportation cost
– Labor cost for shipping and receiving
– Level of product availability
– Relationships across the supply chain
Obstacles to Coordination
in a Supply Chain
BOPII
Behavioral Obstacles
Operational Obstacles
Pricing Obstacles
Incentive Obstacles
Information Processing Obstacles
incentive Obstacles
incentives offered to different stages or participants
**increase variability and reduce total supply chain profits
Local optimization within functions**
Sales force incentives
Information Processing Obstacles
demand information is distorted as it moves between stages
increased variability in orders
Forecasting based on orders and not customer demand
Lack of information sharing
Operational Obstacles
placing and filling orders lead to an increase in variability
Ordering in large lots
Large replenishment lead times
Rationing and shortage gaming
Behavioral Obstacles
information distortion
views its actions locally
react to the current local situation rather than trying to identify the root causes
blame one another for the fluctuations
does not learns from its actions over time
lack of trust causes them to be opportunistic at the expense of overall
Pricing Obstacles
pricing policies
Lot-size based quantity decisions
Price fluctuations
Aligning Goals and Incentives
works to maximize total supply chain profits
across the supply chain, functions
Pricing for coordination
Alter sales force incentives from sell-in (to the
retailer) to sell-through (by the retailer)
Managerial Levers to
Achieve Coordination
AIODT
Aligning goals and incentives
Improving information accuracy
Improving operational performance
Designing pricing strategies to stabilize
orders
Building strategic partnerships and trust
Improving Information Visibility and
Accuracy
SI
Share customer demand data
Implement collaborative forecasting and planning
– Continuous replenishment programs (CRP)
– Vendor managed inventory (VMI)
Designing Pricing Strategies
to Stabilize Orders
Encourage retailers to order in smaller lots and reduce forward buying
– change lot size-based to volume-based
quantity discounts
– Stabilize pricing
– Build strategic partnerships and trust
In-House or Outsource?
based on supply chain surplus and risk incurred
Third parties increase surplus
Third parties increase surplus through
CIRRI WPL TS
Capacity aggregation
Inventory aggregation
Transportation aggregation by transportation intermediaries
Transportation aggregation by storage intermediaries
Warehousing aggregation
Procurement aggregation
Information aggregation
Receivables aggregation
Relationship aggregation
Lower costs and higher quality
CRP
Continuous Replenishment Program
wholesaler or manufacturer replenishes based on POS data
VMI
Vendor-Managed Inventories
manufacturer or supplier is responsible for all decisions regarding inventory
Building Strategic Partnerships and
Trust
Share accurate information
no duplicated effort to lowering of transaction cost, share accurate information, coordination.
more responsive at lower cost.
information sharing, changing of incentives,
operational improvements, and stabilization of pricing improve the level of trust.
identification of roles and decision rights for all parties, effective contracts, and good conflict resolution mechanisms.
Specificity of assets
If assets required are specific to a firm, a third party is unlikely to increase the surplus
Sourcing
entire set of business processes
required to purchase goods and services
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment (CPFR)
ROSDC
Retail event collaboration
DC replenishment collaboration
Store replenishment collaboration
Collaborative assortment planning
Organizational and technology requirements for successful CPFR
Risks and hurdles for a CPFR implementation
Purchasing/ procurement
companies acquire raw materials,
components, products, services, or other
resources from suppliers to execute their
operations
Outsourcing
supply chain function being
performed by a third party