ESG Analysis, Valuation and Integration Flashcards
Aims and objectives of integrating ESG into a firm’s inv. process
A. meeting requirements under fiduciary duty or regulations
b. meeting client and beneficiary demands
c. lowering inv. risk
d. increasing inv. returns
e. giving inv. professionals more tools and techniques to use in analysis
f. improving the quality of engagement and stewardship activities
g. lowering reputational risk at a firm level and investment level
A. meeting requirements under fiduciary duty or regulations
b. meeting client and beneficiary demands
ESG integration is not universally accepted.
but they fall under certain country regulations
EU Shareholder Rights Directve / UK’s Department of Work and Pension’ DWP regulation
/ UK’s Stewardship Code
UNEP FI
United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative and
UN PRI
United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment
argued that the fiduciary duties of investors require them to:
- incorporate ESG issues into inv. analysis and decision-making processes, consistent with their inv. time horizon
- Encourage high standards of ESG performance in the companies or other entities in which they invest
- Understand and incorporate beneficiaries’ and savers’ sustainability-related preferences, regardless of whether these preferences are financial materials.
as of 2021, regulartory updates include:
- the EU Shareholder Rights Directive II
- the UK Stewardship Code
- guidance from the US Department of Labor DoL
c. lowering inv. risk
d. increasing inv. returns
Investors seek to integrate ESG into inv. processes to better understand and lower inv. risk.
Seek to enhance returns vis ESG by seeking higher alpha.
Recent surveys suggest that more firms do so to lower the risk rather than enhance returns, but some firms do both.
ESG analysis can be either qualitative or quantitative
Qualitative ESG analysis
based on company-specific research, fundamental analysis and stock-picking
Quantitative ESG analysis
use quant models to identify attractive inv. opportunities
Qualitative ESG analysis
a. inv. teams analyze ESG data to form their opinion on the ability of the firm to manage certain ESG issues
b. they combine this opinion with their financial analysis by linking specific aspects of the company’s ESG risk management strategy to different value drivers
c. analysts and portfolio managers then seek to integrate their opinion in a quantified way in their financial models by adjusting assumptions used in the model, such as growth, margins or costs of capital
Quantitative, systematic and thematic approaches to integrated ESG analysis
quantitative factors:
value size momentum
growth volatility
passive/index approaches use rule based strategies
thematic assess alignment with priority themes such as climate and gender
AI and algorithms
- focus on using AI techniques to measure ESG performance tied to measures developed by the Sustainable Accounting Standards Board SASB
- attempt to provide immediate access to scores based on material ESG events as they occur
- focus on intangible ESG factor, such as corp. culture, that may drive company value.
NLP Natural language processing
automatic manipulation of natural language
aim to obtain a computer capable of ‘understanding’ the ESG contents of documents, including the contextual nuances of the languages within them.
quant investing can be known as ‘systematic investing’ such as
- high-frequency trading
- use of algorithms based on news or factors and
- statistical arbitrage
- trend-following
- risk parity
- use of beta strategies
Inv. strategies classification
quantitative (systematic, algorithmic) fundamental active passive beta
tools of ESG analysis
red flag indicators
company questionnaires and mgmt interviews
checks with outside experts
watch lists
internal ESG research
external ESG
ESG agenda items at investment committee or Chief Information Officer CIO - level meetings
internal ESG research
consist of materiality frameworks
- ESG-integrated research notes
- research dashboards
- strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis with ESG factors
- scenario analysis and
- relative rankings
external ESG
- Sell-side, ESG specialists or 3rd party databases may all be used
- a materiality framework is created
Elements of ESG integration
- adjusting forecast financials
- adjusting valuation models or multiples
- adjusting credit risk and duration
- managing risk
- ESG factor tilts
- ESG momentum tilts
- strategic asset allocation
- tactical asset allocation
- ESG controversies and positive ESG events
2 distinctions that many inv. practitioners make in fundamental inv. analysis:
- the difference b/w a company/business assessment
- a security, stock, bond or convertible assessment
stages of integrated ESG assessment
- a research page
- a valuation stage
- a portfolio construction stage, which leads to investment decisions
research and idea generation stage
- gather information
- materiality assessments
- tangible vs. intangible factors
- evaluating diff. forms of tangible or intangible factors
tangible asset
land manufacturing plants inventories furniture machinery
intangible assets
goodwill patents copyrights intellectual property and known-how software and innovation assets corporate culture incentives employee productivity other forms of social and relationship assets
applicable to both tangible and intangible assets
ESG analysis techniques
materiality
The IIRC Framework describes capital as:
(framework for evaluating diff. forms of capital or tangible or intangible factors)
IIRC International Integrated reporting Council
financial capital:
- available to an organization for use in the production of goods or the provision of services
- obtained through financing, such as debt, equity or grants, or generated through operations or investments
manufactured capital
intellectual capital
human capital
social and relationship capital
natural capital
a positive relationship with regulators may lead to less friction and litigation
the relationship is considered as an intangible asset
faster approval in pharm. companies positively impacts cashflow
as reputation and brand are intangible assets
affect risk-adj. DCF calculation
Generate ideas
positive or ‘best in class’ screening
a materially negative assessment of a particular ESG factor or collection of factors may lead to a decision that an investment fails to meet a specified hurdle.
assessment can be qualitative or quantitative.
scorecards can be used to assess ESG risk and opportunity
an ESG scorecard based on the self-assessment response is created with ESG factor scores ranging from 0 to 5, and high or low scores are then used in valuation or further assessment work.
score of 0 make a company unattractive and scores of 5 lead to further investment work
take a qualitative judgement of a factor and put a form of quantitative score on it.
can be used on private companies and public companies
but less likely to be rating agency score for a private company
to develop a scorecard:
- identify sector or company specific ESG items
- breakdown issues into a number of indicators
- determine a scoring system based on what good/best practice looks like for each indicator/issue
- assess a company and give it a score
- calculate aggregated scores at issue level, dimension level (esg) or total score level (depending on the relative weight of each issue)
- benchmark the company’s performance against industry averages or peer group
two types of risk for ESG risk (has not been managed)
- unmanageable risk, which cannot be addressed by company initiatives
- the mgmt gap which represents risks that could be managed by a company through suitable initiatives but which may not yet be managed
manageable risk:
- establishing stringent safety procedures
- having emergency response plans and safety drills
- promoting a safe culture
using SASB as a baseline framework in a materiality assessment
SASB/ Global Reporting Initiative GRI as analytical framework alongside standardized frameworks
ESG risk-mapping methodologies
such as carbon foot-printing or testing portfolios against different climate scenarios.
mapping can be done for material opportunities as well as risk.
can be scored on a 10-point scale or given a qualitative label.
assess the impact of material financial and ESG factors on the corporate and inv. performance of a company, leading to adjustments to
- forecasted financials
- valuation-model variables, such as cost of capital or terminal growth rates in DCF analysis
- valuation multiples
- forecasted financial ratios
- internal credit assessment
- assumptions in qualitative or quantitative models
DCF input adjustment
strong/weak company environmental management processes and policies
- cost of capital is adjusted down/up by 1%
Explicit sales/margin assumption maybe adjusted
strong mgmt of employees based on engagement/satisfaction metrics by the employee
- strong future customer satisfaction
- lead to sales forecasts to be raised to above the industry average to account for strong social factor score
adjustment can be made directly to b/s or capital expense lines
a forecast ESG impairment event may result in an impairment charge being made to bring the company’s book value down.
Valuation ratio adj. with ESG integration
- PE ratio premium/discount vs. its peers due to ESG factors
- high ESG risk- P/E discount
- strong ESG P/E premium
weak/strong ESG factor:
- weak or strong business driver or moat
- up or down sales or margins
- up or down long term cash flow
- up or down intrinsic value
- up or down share price
high employee engagement or satisfaction
- high customer satisfaction
- higher sales growth than competition
- higher valuation than competition
judgement of an intangible ESG factor, such as employee relations, complements an analysis of customer satisfaction and the assumptions that lead into a model of sales growth
High carbon intensity
- increased risk from carbon taxes
- increased cost of debt for new project financing
- higher taxes
- increased balance sheet risk of default on debt
- change in debt rating
- lower value of corporate debt
judgement of a E factor, such as exposure to carbon, lead to analysis on the risk to debt pricing.
It complements a traditional take on default risk