Epi 712: General definitions Flashcards
Bias
Prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair.
case fatality risk (CFR)
Proportion of deaths within a designated population of “cases” over the course of the disease.
of deaths from specific disease/ # with disease
aka. or case fatality rate, case fatality ratio or just fatality rate
Cohort
Group of subjects who have shared a particular event together during a particular time span.
disability-adjusted life year (DALY)
Measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health, disability or early death. Include equivalent years of ‘healthy’ life lost by virtue of being in states of poor health or disability. In so doing, mortality and morbidity are combined into a single, common metric.
Years LOST to premature death or disability) = YLLs (death) + YLDs (disabilty)
Estimate of morbidity that accounts for the burden of disease due to specific cause in a population
Efficacy
Ability to produce a desired or intended result. Intervention or drug in medicine.
Endemic
Regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.
(from Greek ἐν en “in, within” and δῆμος demos “people”
Epidemic
Higher than normal (baseline) rates of disease in a community at a particular time.
Incidence
- New Cases
- Measures change in disease occurance during a given period of time.
- Often for infectious/acure disease studies
- Used for investigating causes of disease (etiolog)
- I = # of NEW cases of disease occurring in one time period/ Total # AT RISK in time period
Morbidity
Diseased state, disability, or poor health
Mortality
Death.
Crude Mortality Rate (CMR)
Measure of the number of deaths in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time.
deaths from all causes/ # of persons in total pop.
units: x per 1000
Prevalence
- Existing cases; how much disease is in population
- Measure of disease that allows us to determine a person’s likelihood of having a disease.
- Often used in chronic disease studies
- Used for description and planning health care needs
- P= # of EXISTING cases of disease at specified time/ total population at specified time
Proportionate mortality rate (PMR)
of deaths from specific disease/
of all deaths
= % of deaths in a population caused by disease
Validity
Degree to which the results of a study are likely to be true, believable and free of bias. Results are true to target population
Descriptive Epidemiology
Distribution “Person - Place - Time”
WHO participated in study or event
WHERE did study or event occur?
WHEN did study or event occur?
Analytic Epidemiology
Determinants “Agent - Host - Environment”
Look for causes/ Test Hypothesis.
Why did disease outcome occur in certain people or population groups?
Epidemiology
“Study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states in human populations” Framework for IDing public health problems, causes, and solutions.
Histoty: Hippocrates
460-390 BCE 1st to recognize environments role on disease etiology wrote descriptions of clinical diseases
History: Use of Vital Statistics
14th & 15th centuries Italy: track death rates and causes England: issue death certificates
History: Describe Physical Universe
17th Century Rammazzini: publish enviro hazards in occupations Graunt: use population-based mortality data to study disease occurrence
History: Scientific Reasoning
18th century Figured out disease is caused by exposures Lind: studies etiology of scurvy (lemon guy) Pott: IDed chimney soot as cause for scrotal cancer for chimney sweeps Jenner: developed smallpox inoculation
History: Miasma Theory of Disease
Early 19th Century Epidemics caused by “spontaneous generation” & “Miasma Atmospheres” - enviro conditions/poor sanitation
History: William Farr
Late 19th Century Founding Father of modern Epi (Nonmechanistic) Established national registration system in England
History: John Snow
Mid-19th Century Founding Father of Modern Epi (Mechanistic) Determined cholera as waterborne disease
Non-Mechanistic view of disease
- Environmental based Disease
- Theory= Miasma Health
- Intervention = Hygiene, Enviro/behavioral
- No emphasis on cause
Mechanistic view of disease
- biological based Disease
- Theory = Microbiologic Health
- Intervention = avoid contagion, infectious agent/gene
- Emphasis on cause
History: Germ Theory
19th Century Henle: sick person pass contagious substances to healthy people Pasteur: isolates bacteria & kills by boiling Koch: used microscope to see TB and cholera microbes
Henle-Koch Postulates
- Agent must be present in every cause of the disease 2. One agent = One disease 3. Exposure of healthy subjects to agents results in disease
ID of arthropod vector and asymptomatic carriers
Late 19th Century
History: Modern Epi
20th Century new methods: outbreak investigation, biostat, clinical trials Cigarette smoking causes lung cancer (1960s) Eradication of smallpox (1978) Focus on chronic disease
“The Epidemiologic Transition”
Population shift in disease and mortality patters in high-income countries: - low-income: deaths by infection/malnutrition, high infant mortality, short life expectancy - high-income: deaths by chronic disease, low infant mortality rate, long life expectancy
Health
Complete state of physical, mental and social well-being, not merely absence of disease (WHO definition)
Research
Process of systematically, carefully investigating a single well-defined subject to learn or discover.
Health Research
Examines factors that contribute to health
What is Epi
- basic science - way of thinking - tool for testing/evaluating interventions - study of distribution & determinants of health related states in human population
Etiology
Cause of disease
Research Process
- Identify study question 2. Select study approach 3. Design study & collect data 4. Analyze data 5. Report findings
Criteria for Risk Factor
- Frequency of disease varies by category or value of exposure - Risk factor precedes disease onset observed assoc. is not due to any source of error - Assoc. does not = Causation
Age-Adjusted Rates
Ussed to compare two populations when crude mortality rates are inaccurate due to different population age structures.
rates can be compared if they have been adjusted to teh same STANDARD population.
Age Standardization
Removes effect of age among population being compared and STANDARDIZES the population.
Direct Age Adjustment
Defines what the expected number of events in the standard pop given the rate in the study pop
Use when comparing large, well-defined study pop.
Method:
- Measure age-specific rates in pop. being compared
- Choose a STANDARD population (i.e large established pop, such as US census data)
- Apply age-specific disease/death rate in one of the study populations to teh age distribution of the STANDARD pop to calculate adjusted rate in STUDY pop.
Indirect Age Adjustment
Define what is the expected number of events in the STUDY pop. given the rate in the STANDARD pop.
- Use when you have limited info on the study pop (observed deaths not known) and the study pop is small
Method:
- Select appropriate STANDARD population for the STUDY pop.
- Use the age distribution of the STUDY pop and the age-specific rates from the STANDARD pop to calculate SMR.
Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR)
RATIO calculated in In-direct Age Adjustment
= total # Observed deaths/ total # Expected deaths
- SMR = 1: no diffierence b/w stydy pop and standard pop
- SMR> 1: study pop is experiencing higher than expected death (EXCESS Disease)
- SMR < 1: Study pop is experiencing lower than expected death (REDUCED Disease)
Conditional Probability of Survival
Probability of surviving 2 years GIVEN the person survived the year before. Relies on previous event! =P(survive 2 yrs | survive 1 yr)
Cumulative Probability of Survival
Probability of surviving 2 years from diagnosis is: P (survive 1 yr)* P(survive 2 yrs | Survive 1 yr)
Life Tables
Survival analysis method.
- based on regular interval check-ins (i.e. Yearly)
- Primary statistic is SURVIVAL
- Cases lost to follow-up are accounted
- Cases may be FIXED or DYNAMIC
Kaplan-Meier Method
Survival analysis method
- Event triggered by DEATH
- Primary statistic is SURVIVAL
- Cases lost to follow-up are accounted
- Cases may be FIXED or DYNAMIC
Primary Study Design
Collect and analyze new data.
Individual level data
Study Types; Case Series, Cross sectional, case-control, cohort, experimental, Quantitative
Secondary Study Design
Analyze existing data at indivudal or population level
Study Type; Ecological, case series, cross-sectional, case-control, cohort, experimental
Tertiary Study Design
Uses existing data to review and synthesis of literature
Individual level data
Study Types: Review, meta-analysis
Descriptive Stidues
- Case series - cross-sectional
Analytic Studies
- Case control - cohort - experimental
Study Type: Review/ Meta Analysis
Gathers all prior publications on topic and summarizes into big-picture analysis.
Good for identifying consensus and confussion
Tertiary analysis study design
Study Type: Ecological
- Secondary Analysis study deisgn
- Uses population-level to examine the relationship b/w E and D in P
- Exposure often “environmental”
- Pop characteristics in aggregate formed
- Scatter plot best analysis for correlation
- Beware of Ecological Fallacy
PROS: cheap, convenient, simple
CONS: “ecological fallacy,” pop level analysis only
Ecological Fallacy
Correlation studies compare groups rather than individuals. Incorrect attribution of pop level associations to indivudals
Study Type: Cross-Sectional
- Descriptive, Observational study
- Measures proportion of pop with a particular E or D at ONE POINT IN TIME.
- “Snap shot” aka. prevalence study.
- Uses: describe communities, assess op needs, evaluate programs, establish baseline
- Participants “representative” of larger pop
- Analysis: Prevalence, comparative statistics, ASSOCIATION or relation b/w E and D, but NOT CAUSE.
PRO: Cheap, simple, rapid collection of data
LIMIT: needs representative pop.; Can’t study causality
Sampling
- Defining a representative study population of a target population
- Bigger sample = narrower confidence intervals = more likely to have “statistically significant” result
- Power: ability of statistical test to detect significance in pop when differences exist