Empirical Evidence Flashcards
Lecture 3
What’s expropriation? (contextual question)
The action by the state or an authority of taking property from its owner for public use or benefit.
Explain security of Property Rights (institutions Data) + examples.
-Protection against expropriation
0= high-risk expropriation = extractive state
10 = low risk expropriation = inclusive state (with rule of law, well-enforced property rights, etc.)
Ex: -Zaire = 3.5 (65% chance of expropriation)
-USA = 10
-if you have index of 0 there is no incentive to invest because your earnings are 100% likely to get expropriated
Index of 10 (security of property rights)
protection for a broad cross section of society= inclusive institutions
Index of 0 (security of property rights)
- extractive instituions
-very good for the elites within a society
Explain the Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2005)
-cross-country regressions of security of property rights
-found that the positive relationship between higher index and higher gdp would lead us to believe that inclusive institutions lead to higher GDP
- Possible Problems: Potential reverse causality–> as you become wealthier and your country becomes wealthier they can afford better institutions
-Third variable prime potential
Montesquieu on Geography
- Warm climate makes people unfit to be governed by democracy
Explain the Korean Natural Experiment
-Korea under Japanese occupation until end of WWII
-soviet forces entered from the north
-US worried of complete take-over and supported separatist leader in the south
-in 1948: South korea and north korea created
-very different institutions
-North: soviet socialism, abolition of private property and capital, no market, decisions by the communist state
-South: private property, government used markets and private incentives
-they both has the same geography and natural resources and the same culture
-by 1980 the south was way more developed than the north
The Korean Experiment, explain why the North is worse off?
because ruling elite look after their own interests at the expense of the population at large (extractive institutes persist)
-this is the main reason by ‘bad’ institutions persist
Korea Natural Experiment–> problems with analysis
- 1 sample size
-compares market-oriented economy to communism
-doesnt say which institution matter within market-oriented economy (would need a change in institutions, variation in types of institutes and no change in geography or culture)
Explain the Colonial Experiment
(picks up after “guns, germs and steel”)
15th century 1492 and onward, europeans colonized much of the world
-colonization transformed institutions
-very diff institutions in diff places: northeast america vs caribbean plantation societies
Reversal of fortunes
*Positive correlation between urbanization rates and GDP.
Rich civilizations in 1500 (mughals in india, aztecs in mexico, incas mostly in peru, ecuador, bolivia and southeast asia) are the poorer societies today
-less developed places in 1500 (north america, new zealand, australia, the southern cone of latin america) are much richer today
-countries that are rich now were the least urbanized in 1500
Reversal of fortunes question 1
-is this merely a result driven by the neo-europes?
-answer: no, correlation still holds when excluding neo-european countries
Reversal of fortunes question 2
were fortunes simply reversed because of the identity of the colonizer?
-British: liberal, protestant (US, Canada)
-Spanish: mercantilist (iliberal economy) catholic (peru, bolivia)
-Answer: No, think about the rest of the examples–> not dependent on identity of colonizer
Reversal of fortunes question 3
is the reversal of fortunes a ‘normal’ pattern? one that would have occurred even without colonization?
Reversal of Fortunes: Climate
No, in 1500 it was the countries in the tropics that were prosperous