Electoral Systems US

Question 1

What is the electoral college

Answer 1

The president is elected using the Electoral College vote. In the majority of elections, the candidate who wins the popular vote also wins the Electoral College vote. But in 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes but Trump won the Electoral College vote and became president. The president and vice president are not directly elected by the people. They are chosen by electors through a process called the Electoral College. The idea of electors comes from the constitution. The founding fathers saw it as a compromise between the popular vote and congress electing the president.

Question 2

How the electoral college is split between states

Answer 2

Each state is awarded with a certain number of Electoral College votes; the number is equal to the states representation in congress. Each state has two senators in each state and each state has representatives in the house in proportion to their population. In 2012, California had 55 and Wyoming had 3. There are 578 Electoral College votes and the candidate needs 270 to win.

Question 3

The winner takes all rule - US

Answer 3

Popular votes for each candidate are counted in each state. In all but two states (Maine and Nebraska), the candidate who wins the popular vote receives all of the Electoral College votes. This is known as the winner takes all rule but this is not in the constitution but is a convention.

Question 4

How does the electoral college function

Answer 4

The Electoral College never met. Its members meet in their representative state capitals on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December. They send their results to the vice President in Washington DC. The VP formally counts the Electoral College votes and announces the result in a joint session on congress in early January. On the 6th January 2001, Vice President Al Gore announced his own defeat at the hands of Bush (then governor of Texas) by 271 electoral votes to 266.

Question 5

What if no candidate wins a majority

Answer 5

If there is no absolute majority then the president is elected by the House with the 3 highest voter candidates in the vote. Each states have one vote and the winner needs a majority of 26/50 states, the balloting continues until there is a winner. The VP is elected by the Senate with the two candidates with the most votes. The winner must require a majority of 51/100 votes.

Question 6

Electoral college analysis - small states

Answer 6

Preserves the voice of small states – if the system was abolished, their vote would be worthless
Small states over represented – by 2016, California had 55 Electoral College votes representing 39.2 million people. Wyoming had 3 representing just over 500,000. California receives one electoral vote per 713,000 people but Wyoming receives one electoral vote per 195,000 people.

Question 7

Electoral college analysis - two horse race and third parties

Answer 7

It promotes a two horse race – this is important for the role of the president, as the winner will likely receive more than 50% of the popular vote. In 26 of 39 elections between 1864-2016, the winner gained more 50% of the vote, however in 2016, 2000, 1996 and 1992 they did not (3 of the last 7 elections has the president gained more than 50% of the popular vote).
Unfair to national third parties – in 1980 John Anderson won 6.6% of the popular vote, 1992 Ross Perot won 18.9% and Nader won over three million votes but none won a single Electoral College, Perot even won 30% of popular vote in Maine. Regional candidates do better, 1968 George Wallace won 13% of the popular vote but won 5 states with 45 electoral votes.

Question 8

Electoral college analysis - winner takes all and rogue electors

Answer 8

Winner takes all system distorts the result – in 1996, Clinton won only 49% of the popular vote but he had 70% of the Electoral College vote. In the last 7 elections 1992-2016, the Electoral College could have been said to have distorted the result on 5 occasions. In 2000 and 2016 the candidate did not win the popular vote. In 2000 Al Gore won 48.4% of the popular vote to Bush’s 48%. In 2016, Clinton won 48.2% of the popular vote to Trumps 46.1% but Trump won the Electoral College votes by 304 to 227.

Rogue electors – many states have laws requiring electors to cast their ballots for the popular vote winner but others do not. This creates the possibility of rogue electors. Seven of the 13 presidential candidates since 1968 have seen this occur. On six of these occasions, there was only one elector who voted for a candidate other than the one for which they should have voted for. In 2016, there were multiple rogue electors. There could have been more as three Clinton electors in Colorado were dismissed and replaced when they refused to vote for the designated candidate. Five Clinton electors did not vote for their designated candidate. As a result the final tally in the Electoral College was 304 votes to Trump and 227 for Clinton, rather than 306-232.

Question 9

Electoral college analysis - presidents and Vice Presidents of the same party

Answer 9

Presidents and vice presidents of different parties – at the start of the republic political parties did not truly exist so it did not matter if the president and vice president were of different parties. In 2000 however it was possible the House of Representatives could have chosen Republican Bush as president and the senate could have chosen Democrat Joseph Lieberman as VP

Question 10

Representation and accountability US

Answer 10

Citizens elect representatives to act on their behalf. To ensure re-election the representatives must prove themselves worthy and pledge to serve their constituents. If a representative loses the support of the voters they can be removed from office in the next election. Each state elects 2 state senators meaning all 50 states have equal representation. Senators serve 6 years but there are elections every 2 years with about a third of seats contested each time. A member of the House of Representatives is elected per 700,000 on average and there are 435 members of the House, elections are every two years.

Question 11

Making a government -US

Answer 11

The president is elected by the citizens who vote to instruct their Electoral College members who they want as president. The president is the only elected member of the executive, other members are appointed by the president. Politicians in the house have to be aware of current constituency opinions. Candidates face constant public criticism and hostility as well as support in the media.

Question 12

What are congressional elections

Answer 12

Both houses of congress are directly elected. The Senate was once indirectly elected being appointed by state legislatures until the 17th amendment in 1913. Congressional elections are held every two years and alternatively coincide with the presidential elections.

Question 13

Congressional elections - timings

Answer 13

The House is elected every two years whereas Senators serve 6 year terms, but 1/3 of Senators are up for re-election every 2 years. Elections are always held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, like presidential elections. Some years they coincide with the presidential elections like in 2016, in the years between presidential elections they are called midterm elections.

Question 14

Congress - constitutional requirements

Answer 14

Representatives for the House must be at least 25, an American citizen for 7 years and a resident of the state they represent. For the Senate, Senators must be at least 30, an American citizen for 9 years and a resident of the state they represent. Many states have passed a law requiring house members to be a resident in the congressional district they represent, this is the locality rule.

Question 15

The nomination process in congress

Answer 15

To gain a seat in congress you must secure the nomination of one of the two major parties, as third party candidates rarely win seats in congress. Securing the nomination may mean running in a congressional primary and the winner becomes the party’s candidate in the general election. Sometimes an incumbent senator or representative will be challenged and will contest in the primary. For incumbent Senators defeat in a primary is unusual, 1982-2016 only 8 incumbent senators were defeated, for example in 2010 Bob Bennett was denied a place on the primary ballot by his state convention. During the same period 72 incumbent house members were defeated in primaries, with 13 in 2012.

Question 16

Trends in congressional elections - the power of the incumbent

Answer 16

The power of the incumbency – there is strong support of incumbents in congressional elections. The early 90s showed a blip in this trend with the term limits movement. Although at this time congress and members were held in low esteem, voters thought their representative did a good job and deserved to be re-elected. By 2000 high rates of re-election were back. In 9 cycles 2000-2016 re-elections in the house ranged from 97.8% in 2000 to a low of 85.4% in 2010. In the Senate it ranged from 79.3% in 2006 to 96.1% in 2004. Most members of congress leave through voluntary retirement rather than electoral defeat. During this period 320 house members and 62 Senators left voluntary. The advantages to the incumbent is that they have an ability to provide constituency services, name recognition and it is easier to fund raise, incumbent Senators raised 7 times their challengers in 2016 and house representatives 8 times more.

Question 17

Trends in congressional elections - coattails effect

Answer 17

The coattails effect – this is when popular candidates at the top of the electoral ticket (president or governor) carries lower candidates into office with them. Few modern day presidents have achieved with since Reagan in 1980 as he helped his party to gain 33 seats in the house and 12 in the Senate, defeating 9 incumbents. Clinton, Bush and Obama showed little evidence of coat tailing. In 2016 Trump helped some republicans senators to gain re-election who had been thought to be facing bear certain defeat, for example republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin won his race when his democrat candidate has been leading the poll for most of the campaign. However of the 21 Republican Senate candidates of 2016, 16 of them won a higher share of the vote in their state than Trump, so his coattails were short or non-existent.

Question 18

Trends in congressional elections - decrease in split ticket voting

Answer 18

Split ticket voting is declining – this is when people vote for candidates of two or more parties for different offices at the same election. Elections in the US are more candidate and issue orientated than party orientated so split-ticketing does not seem odd to American voters. There is some evidence that voters think in terms of a divided government, in 1996 the Republicans admitted their presidential candidate Bob Dole would lose and appealed voters to elect a republican congress, this happened. This may result in a state supporting a presidential candidate from one party but Senatorial candidate from another. In 2004, 4 states, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and North Dakota voted for republican Bush but elected a Democrat to Senate. However in 2016, all 34 states with previously split, voted the same way. It may also result in a congressional district supporting a presidential candidate from one party but a house member from another party. These are called split districts but these have significantly declined. In 2016, there were 23 districts that elected a republican to the House but Clinton for president and 12 which voted Trump but elected a democrat to the house. In Minnesota 62% voted Trump and 53% voted for Democrat congressmen Collin Peterson. Similar to split ticket voting is split state delegations. In 1975, 44 states had fallen to 30 and by 2017 just 12. 38 states have both senators from the same party, evidence of partisan voting.

Question 19

Trends in congressional elections - fewer competitive districts

Answer 19

Fewer competitive districts – a competitive district is when the candidate wins by less than 10% over the other candidate. In 1992, there were 111 competitive districts but only 31 by 2016. This makes it harder for the party control to change hands. In 2016 the democrats needed to make a gain of just 30 seats to take control of the house, but only 43 were competitive seats, so they only gained 6 seats. It is also significant because safe districts are more likely to vote with the party line. Democratic congressman Sanford Bishop of Georgia won 61% of the vote, making it logical for him to support the Democratic Party line; similarly Republican Drew Ferguson won 68% of the vote, meaning he will follow the Republican Party line. However republican Darrell Issa from California won by just 5,000 votes, he will keep the views of both parties in congress.

Question 20

Trends in congressional elections - presidents party

Answer 20

The president’s party tends to lose seats in the midterms – between 1994-2014, the president’s party have lost an average of 25 House seats and 4/5 Senate seats. In 2010, 63 house members and 6 Senators were lost. 2002 is the only year in the last 40 years in which the president gained seats in both houses during the midterm elections. Voters see the midterm elections as an opportunity to express their disappointment or disapproval with the president, in 2006 voters showed their disappointment with Bush to conclude the military operation in Iraq.

Question 21

Direct democracy - propositions

Answer 21

This is also known as an initiative and enables citizens to bypass their state legislatures by lacing proposed laws and in some states, constitutional amendments on the ballot. Some 2016 propositions included marijuana legislation approved in California and Maine and minimum wage increase approved in Washington and Maine.
There are two types of proposition. The first is direct which go directly to the ballot. Some are indirect which are submitted to the state legislature, who decides on further action. In some states the question goes on the ballot even if the legislature rejects it but in some the legislature can submit a competing proposal on the ballot along with the original proposal. All states differ regarding getting a proposition on the state ballot. In most states the proposition must be comply with state law, have a formal title, gained a certain amount of signatures from registered voters and submitted to state officials for verification. The number of signatures differs from states. In Alaska it is 10% of the votes cast in the last general election. Once a proposition is on the state ballot a majority is needed. Around half of all propositions are approved by voters.

Question 22

Direct democracy - referendums

Answer 22

Referendums – they are available in all 50 states. Voters can veto a bill passed by the state legislature. They are similar to propositions but the main difference is that rather than citizens taking initiatives, referendums follow something the state legislators have already done. In some states, the state legislature is required to refer certain measures to the voters for their approval in a referendum. Some states require that changes to the constitution must be approval in a state-wide referendum, in some states changes to tax must be approved in this way. In 2012, there were 115 referendums on the ballot by state legislatures. In 24 states they have a popular referendum. In Alaska, Colorado and New Mexico if the state legislature passed a law that voters disliked they need signatures to demand a referendum. Once enough signatures have been gathered, the law appears on a ballot for a popular vote. If the voters reject the law it is null and void (a popular veto).

Question 23

Direct democracy - recall elections

Answer 23

Recall elections – this is the procedure which enables voters in a state to remove an elected official from office before their term has expired, they can be seen as an indirect form of impeachment. 19 states permit this process. There have been 3 recalls of state governors. In 1921 North Dakota removed Governor Lynn Frazier. In 2003 the democrat governor of California, Gray Davis was defeated in a recall election by republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. In 2012, Republican governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker was recalled. This is a device to increase democratic accountability, as it makes elected officials directly accountable during their entire term of office. Critics believe it allows voters to indulge in buyers regret, changing your mind after short term dissatisfaction. Since 2012, recall elections have begun against the governors of Kansas, Oregon, Arizona, Michigan and Alaska, but did not come to a vote.

Question 24

Reform to the electoral system - direct election

Answer 24

The Electoral College means that the candidate who wins the popular vote does not always win the presidency, this occurred in 2016. The Washington Post commissioned a national poll on the matter in 2007 and 72% supported the popular vote with only 23% opposed. But the direct election plan would cause problems. With the need to gain an absolute majority gone, there would be a multiplicity of candidates making it possible the president would be elected with well below 50% of the vote. The only way around this would be to have a runoff election between the top two candidates. Another problem is that only a constitutional amendment could bring about this particular reform, however the amendment process is difficult and success is highly unlikely.

Question 25

Reform to the electoral system - congressional district system

Answer 25

A most widely accepted reform could be for the other 48 states to adopt the system used in Maine and Nebraska. This involves awarding one Electoral College vote to a candidate for each congressional district that they win and two electoral votes to the candidate who is the state winner. In 2008 Nebraska split its five Electoral College votes, John McCain won the state but Obama won one electoral vote. In 2016 Maine split its four electoral college votes, Clinton won three and Trump won one. But this reform would lead to results being marginally different in the last seven elections. However if this was used in 2012 Romney would have won the election despite having lost to president Obama by 5 million votes.

Question 26

Reform to the electoral system - proportion system

Answer 26

Another reform would be to allocate Electoral College votes in each state proportional to the popular vote in that state. In reality this system would abolish the Electoral College as the result would be determined by a mathematical computation rather than electors casting ballots. This system would be fairer to third parties, as more people would vote for such parties, making it more likely no candidate would gain an absolute majority of electoral votes requiring a runoff election between top two candidates. There is little or no agreement on how to reform or replace the Electoral College and no realistic way to accomplish it.

Question 27

Presidential elections

Answer 27

America has fixed term elections every four years, the first being in 1788. If a president dies in office, there is no election as the vice president becomes president; Johnson became president in 1963 after the assassination of Kennedy. A four year fixed term is laid down in article II of the constitution.

Question 28

Invisible primary

Answer 28

This is the period between candidates declaring an intention to run for presidency and the first primaries and caucuses. This is important or candidates to get name recognition and get money to run their campaign. This is a high correlation between those leading the polls at the end of the invisible primary and the presidential nomination.
The candidates formally announce their entering of the presidential race; Clinton announced her intention to run in April 2015. Support for candidates is demonstrated through opinion polls. Some formal events occur in the invisible primary. Between August 2015 and February 2016 there were 7 TV debates between the republican candidates. In 2011 there were 16 TV debates and Rick Perry’s (republican) poor performance led to him being 6th with 1% of the vote in New Hampshire. Fundraising is important during this stage; money brings the ability to campaign and advertise and improves poll ratings. However this is no key indicator of success, Carson got 58 million and did not win a primary. Clinton raised 130 million and Sanders 96 million. The next stage after this is primaries and caucuses.

Question 29

Choosing the VP

Answer 29

Until 1980, the VP was chosen n announced at the national party convention stage. Until 1956 the convention delegates chose the running mate but from 1960-80 the presidential candidate made the selection and announced it at the convention. In 1984 Democrat presidential candidate Walter Mondale announced Ferraro as VP before the convention and all democrat candidates have followed suit. Republican candidates started doing this from 1996 with Bob Dole announcing Jack Kemp the day before the convention.
A paring of presidential and VP candidates should attract support for different reasons, to make the broadest appeal to voters; balance can be looked for in terms of region, experience and ideology. Obama in 2008 chose Joe Biden aged 65 with 36 years experience as Senator and foreign policy expertise. VPs may also be chosen with long term aims in mind, for example what they bring to the White House, Bush chose Cheney to help him run the whole executive government. One way of re-uniting the party after the primaries is for the eventual nominee to choose a rival as their running mate, Reagan chose Bush in 1980 which reunited the party after bitter battles.

Question 30

National party conventions

Answer 30

It is traditional for the challenging party to hold its convention first. Conventions are attended by delegates chosen at primaries and caucuses. By 2016, the republicans met in Ohio on July 18-21st and the democrats in Philadelphia from 25th-28th of July. Some of the formal functions are choosing the presidential candidate. However the result is already known during the invisible primary. To win the nomination the candidates must receive a majority of the delegate vote. In 2016 Trump won 1,237 of the 2,472 delegates. If no candidate wins a majority in the first ballot, balloting continues until a majority occurs. The conventions role in selecting the VP has been lost in the last decades. The last time the running mate was announced at the convention was in 1988. The party platform is decided at the convention. The party’s national committee decides the platform during the first six months of the election year. In 2008 the democrats held 1600 listening committees to form their platform. The national committee agrees to draft the platform to be presented at the party convention. In 2016 debates occurred with the platform between Clinton and Sanders supporters.
The conventions serve some informal functions. It promotes party unity; primaries can create internal party wounds, for example Clinton and Sanders. At the convention Sanders said ‘Clinton will make an outstanding president’. The republican convention did not promote party unity, Cruz did not endorse Trump. The convention also provides an opportunity to enthuse the party, in 2016 Michelle Obama enthused the party to work for Clinton. It also excites the voters, as they may start to pay attention at this point. The convention causes a post convention bounce. The average in the polls for the challenging candidates and incumbent candidates is 6 points, Trump scored one and Clinton 4.5, the importance of the bounce is exaggerated and only predicts the winner half the time.

Question 31

Primaries

Answer 31

Closed and open primaries – any registered voter can vote in a primary but in some states you need to declare your party affiliation. In a closed primary any registered Democrats could vote in a democrat primary and vice versa. In an open primary any registered voter can vote in any primary. Open primaries allow cross-over voting. This was significant in 2008, when many independents and republicans voted in the democrat primary and voted for Obama. In 2012 in the Republican open primary, 11% of voter said they were democrats. Romney won the primary with 44% to Santorum’s 37% and among democrats Santorum beat Romney by 20% points. These were either democrats who preferred his policies or they perceived him as an easier presidential opponent. Modified primaries are like closed primaries in that only registered party members can vote but also independents can vote this was the case in the New Jersey 2016 primary.

Question 32

Timings of primaries

Answer 32

Timing – states decide when to hold their primaries and caucuses. Some states organise their primaries to coincide, creating a regional primary. In 2016, 11 states arranged their primaries and caucuses together, this was known as Super Tuesday. This attempted to increase their importance in the selection process. New Hampshire organise their contest early when no other primaries are being held, this gives it prominence. There is a belief that the earlier primaries have more influence over selection, known as front loading. The number of states holding their primaries or caucuses before the end of March increased from 11 in 1980 to 42 in 2008 and by February 5th 2008 55% of the delegates had been chosen. 2016 saw an extended period as by the end of March 32 states had voted.

Question 33

Caucuses

Answer 33

They are a state based series of meetings to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. In caucuses would be voters attend meetings instead of polling stations. They attract unrepresentative and low turnouts. In 2016 the republicans held caucuses in 10 states and the democrats in 14. Turnout is lower and those who turnout are disproportionally more ideological than primary voters and thus favour more ideological candidates. For example Sanders had strongest showings in caucuses with 68% in Kansas and 82% in Alaska. In all caucuses Sanders averaged 66% to Clinton’s 33%.

Question 34

Early primaries and caucuses

Answer 34

Iowa (caucus) – Iowa traditionally holds the first caucus but attracts low turnout with just 2,108 voters in 2012. It is not regarded as the most important but it was in 2016 as Cruz won 27% and Trump 24% which positioned them as frontrunners. No Democrat candidate has ever won the presidential nomination without winning the Iowa election since 1992; however Republicans McCain, Romney and Trump lost Iowa. Iowa have voted for the winning candidate in the last six out of seven elections.
New Hampshire (primary) – it has been suggested to win the nomination candidates must win this primary. However Clinton (1992), Bush (2000) and Obama (2008) did not win. Hampshire is still critical in terms of time and media attention. Victory in Iowa and New Hampshire brings three bonuses, media coverage, money and a boost in opinion polls. After Obama’s win in Iowa he was on the cover of Time and raised $50 million. Early primaries lead to withdrawal; in 2016 Jeb Bush withdrew after receiving 7% in the republican South Carolina primary.

Question 35

Proportional and winner takes all primaries

Answer 35

Primaries can be classified according to how delegates to the national convention are won. In most primaries, they are proportional; candidates are awarded delegates in proportional to the votes they get. They set a minimum percentage of what candidates must receive to get delegates. All democrat and most republican primaries are proportional. Some republican are winner takes all primaries. In the Arizona primary in 2016, Trump received all 58 delegates.

Question 36

Incumbent presidents and primaries

Answer 36

When presidents go for re-election there is little primary coverage and some states don’t have a primary. In 2012 Virginia, Florida and New York did not have a democrat primary as incumbent president are usually re-elected by their party without serious opposition. This was the case for Reagan 1984, Clinton 1996, Bush 2004 and Obama 2012. However Obama won less than 90% in 14 states and only 57% in Oklahoma. His opponent in West Virginia even won 40% of the vote even though he was in prison. However ford in 1976 won just 53% and Carter 51%, they saw off their primary challenges but lost the general election.

Question 37

Analysis of primaries and caucuses

Answer 37

Voter turnout in primaries – since McGovern Fraser reforms in the 1960s participation in presidential primaries has increased, primarily because more states hold primaries. In 1968 just 11% of the voting age population participated in presidential primaries, in 2016 29% participated.

Question 38

Factors affecting the primary

Answer 38

Demography – Wayne (2001) found that the better educated, the higher income and the older the electorate the more likely they are to vote in a primary. For example in the North Carolina primary in 2016, over half of all voters had a college degree and earned over 100,000 dollars per year and 75% were over 45 and only 6% were under 24.
Type of primary – open primaries attract higher turnout. This is true when only one party is competitive. In 2012 in open primaries in Wisconsin there was a 92% increase and in Mississippi up from 105% from 2008. In closed primaries only two saw an increase but Connecticut was down 61% and New York was down 71%.
How competitive the race is – when both parties have a competitive race, turnout is higher. In both 2008 and 2016 turnout was higher and 2008 saw a turnout of 30.4%.
Whether the nomination has been decided or not – early primaries have higher turnouts. In 2012 New York primary Romney won 62% of the vote with a turnout of just 189,599 as it was not held until 24th April and most of the competitors dropped out but in the 2008 New York primary there was a turnout of 642,894 as the nomination was still undecided.

Question 39

The increased importance of primaries

Answer 39

Currently primaries are the only way to become the presidential candidate of a party. In the 50s most states but not hold primaries and preferred to select candidates using a series of state party conventions. Only certain members could participate and not all registered voters. They were decided in smoke filled rooms and largely made by powerful state leaders. This was undemocratic and elitist. In 1968 Humphrey became the residential candidate without entering any primaries.

Question 40

Strengths of the nomination process US

Answer 40

• Increased participation – in 1968 only 11% of the electorate turned out, this was 20% in 2016
• Increased choice – in 1968 there were 5 presidential candidates and in 2016 there were 22
• Open to outsiders – the process allows candidates without a national reputation, such as Obama in 2008 to win. Also 2016 primaries were the only way for Trump to emerge as a candidate as he had no elective experience
• A gruelling race – the difficulties of primaries are a good test for the difficultly of presidency. In 2008 Obama was seen as a strong candidate after a gruelling race with Clinton

Question 41

Weakness of the nomination process US

Answer 41

• Wide spread apathy and boredom – participation varies from cycle to cycle. For example during an incumbent president, turnout in primaries is only 17%. It was 17.5% in 1996 when Clinton was running for re-election and 17.2% when Bush was re-running.
• Voters are unrepresentative of the voting age population – low turnout causes an impact on age, education, wealth but ideology has an impact. Ideological candidates tend to do better in the nomination process than excepted. In 2012, Paul Ryan won at least 10% of the votes in 40 primaries and caucuses, with average vote in caucuses of 21% and 12% in primaries
• Process is too long – in 1960 Kennedy announced his running 66 days before the first primary, however due to the McGovern-Fraser reforms the process became longer, in 1972 Senator McGovern-Fraser entered 414 days before the first primary.
• Expensive – with the impact of front lading it is difficult to raise money once primaries have started. By the end of 2015 Clinton raised 275 million dollars and Trump and Cruz raised around 90 million.
• Dominated by the media – the decision makers are the ordinary voters and they rely on the media. Some think the media is ill suited for the job and believe it has become a king maker. This has increased with the intra-party debates before and during the primaries. By 2016 it seemed that pre-primary debates dictated the cycle, poll ratings increased or decreased depending on performance

Question 42

Weakness of the nomination process 2 US

Answer 42

• Can develop into persona battles – both nomination battles in 2016 were bedevilled by personal bitterness, with Trump frequently trading insults with republicans. In 2000republican primaries McCain accused Bush of not telling the truth and likened him to Clinton.
• Lack of peer review – in the pre reform era, candidates were selected largely by other professionals, this constituted good peer review. However candidates are now chosen by the people, therefore primaries tend to be campaigning qualities and not professional qualities. Trumps success was called a hostile takeover and Trump did not have good peer review
• Super delegates – they are people who are appointed automatically as uncommitted delegates to the democratic national party convention by virtue of being an elected politician or senior party official. They are an attempt by the democrats to reintroduce an element of peer review at their 1984 convention. There role was unnoticed for 20 years but in 2008 played a significant role in the nomination of Obama. Either Obama or Clinton gained the required amount of delegate’s votes through primaries and caucuses and therefore they were dependent in the votes of super delegates to give them the 2210 required delegate votes. There was controversy in 2016 when super delegates from states where Sanders won the primary voted for Clinton. Many on the radical wing argued the 2016 primary was rigged by the early and overwhelming support of the super delegates for Clinton.

Question 43

General election campaign

Answer 43

Debates – three 90 minutes debates between the two major parties presidential candidates and one 90 minute debates between VPs. The only time a third candidate has participated was Ross Perot in 1992. This is considered the time that Americans begin to pay attention but there has been one debate that has impacted the final result. In 1980, Carter and Reagan me for their only head to head one week before the election. Due to Reagan’s closing statement support for Carter fell away and won just six states. In 2012, the first debate of Obama and Romney, the polls favoured Romney. During the debate the time said Obama’s performance was ‘one of the most inept performances by a president’. 72% of the polls said Romney was the winner and 20% said Obama, this was the largest gap in TV debate history. In 2016 Trump and Clinton debates reached record levels with 84 million watching. Clinton outperformed Trump but her polls only moved marginally and upon exit polls 64% of people said the debates were important.

Question 44

Debate rules of thumb

Answer 44

• Style over substance – in the Gore-Bush debates, Gore was ridiculed as a ‘smarty pants’ for overly sighing and rolling his eyes. Trump was panned for his abrasive and rude tone, constantly shouting ‘wrong’ and even ‘such a nasty women’.
• Verbal gaffes can be costly – in 1980, Carter said he talked to his 10 year old daughter about nuclear weapons and cartoonists had a field day
• Sound bites – many voters do not watch the full debate, but the sound bites on morning television. In 2012 Obama was quoted accusing Romney favouring ‘the foreign policy of 1980s, the social policy of the 1950s and the economic policy of the 1920s’.
• Debates can be challenging for incumbents – they are perceived as the front runner and therefore more is expected of them, this was the case of Obama and Romney. Presidents can be rustier in their debating, the last time Obama appeared in a TV was 2008 and Romney had 19 debates between 2011-12.

Question 45

Campaign funding US

Answer 45

The federal election campaign act of 1974 was a direct result of the Watergate Scandal. The act made changes to limited contributions from individuals, unions and corporations. This should reduce candidates’ reliance on a few wealthy donors and equalise money spent by the two major parties. But there were loopholes: in Buckley v Valeo 1976, the Supreme Court found the limitations infringed the first amendment and was unconstitutional. In 1979 congress allowed parties to raise soft money for aspects such as party building activities, where the donor would donate to the party and not the candidate.
Matching funds – from 1976-2008 presidential campaigns were funded using this. Federal money administered by the Federal Electoral commission and given to candidates meeting certain criteria and agreed to certain limitations. In 1976 the FEC paid $72 million and over $240 million by 2000. Obama opted out of matching funds which meant he significantly outspent McCain who took $84 million from the matching funds. In 2012 neither Obama nor Romney took matching funds, the first time ever both candidates opted out of public funding and Obama signed legislation to end public funding of parties national conventions and by 2016 the FEC paid just $1 million with only one major party candidate, Democrat O’Malley and Green Jill Stein accepting matching funds.

Question 46

Campaign funding US - bipartisan reform act and PACs

Answer 46

Bipartisan Reform Act 2002 – national parties were banned from raising or spending soft money and unions and corporations were forbidden from using advertisements that mentions a candidate within 60 days of a general election or 30 days of a primary. It also increased the allowance for individual donations to $2,300. Republican McCain and Democrat Feingold influenced the act. The 2005 election saw the appearance of 527 group’s names after the US tax code. 527s such as ‘America Coming together’ and ‘Swift Boat Veterans for Truth’ spent millions of dollars donated by few anonymous donors.
PACs and Super PACs – due to the limits, organisations formed that made independent expenditures, spending money for the purpose of electing or defeating specific candidates. In the Citizens v FEC 2010 granted corporations and unions the same rights of political speech as individuals, thereby giving groups unlimited independent political expenditure. This led to the creation of Super PACs. They were significant in 2012, they are seen as positive in that deregulation provides an outlet for political speech and advocates independent calls for election or defeat of candidates. Super PACs dominated the 2016 election. Priorities USA action raised $192 million dollars on behalf of Clinton whilst Rebuilding America Now raised $22.6 million for Trump. Clinton raised 71% of her money from individuals and Trump had less than half from individuals.

Question 47

What campaign money is spent on US

Answer 47

• Organisation – staff and field offices throughout the country. At the height of the campaign Clinton had 489 offices to Trump’s 178.
• Campaigning – this is logistically costly, especially for last minute travel. When Trump’s polls started to show Michigan and Wisconsin were moving towards him he headed to both states for last minute campaigning and won by just over 10,000 in Michigan out of 4.5 million.
• Media – as Trump raised much less money than Clinton, he relied on free coverage. Trump focused on cable ads and social media ads, particularly negative ones aimed at Clinton in states she was expected to win such as Florida, Ohio and North Carolina and Trump won.

Question 48

The October surprise

Answer 48

This is the event occurring late in the presidential campaign to the disadvantage of one candidate, leaving them little or no time to recover. It originally began in 1972 when Nixon ran against McGovern. 12 days before the election, Nixon’s national security advisor, Kissenger announced ‘we believe peace is at hand in Vietnam’, destroying McGovern’s anti war campaign and led to him losing in 49 states. In 2016 the surprise occurred when just 11 days before the election FBI director Comey announced he would re-open the investigation into Clinton’s emails.

Question 49

Election Day

Answer 49

Some Americans can vote early. In 2016 around 47 million voters voted early. Turnout has varied with highs of 67% in 1960 and 54% in 2016. A large amount of states like New York and California always vote Democrat and others like Texas and South Carolina vote republican. However the result is largely determined by swing states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Ohio voted for the winner in the last 14 presidential elections, back to 1968.

Question 50

What’s makes a President

Answer 50

Constitutional requirements – they must be a natural born American citizen, 35 years old and a residency qualification of 14 years.
Political experience – they are usually state governors or senators, of the 22 declared candidates for the republican and democrat presidential nominations in 2016, 11 were state governors and 8 in the Senate. The other three Trump, Carson and Fiorina had no experience. Of the 19 presidential candidates 1968-2016 ten had been in the Senate, six state governors and six had been vice president. In 2016, Trump was the first president with no political or military experience.
Major party endorsement – it is vital to be chosen as a candidate for either the democrats or republicans. Eisenhower in 1952 had to become a republican and Sanders in 2016 a democrat. Third party candidates or independents did not lead to the White House.

Question 51

What makes a President - personal characteristics and organisation and polices

Answer 51

Personal characteristics – there is a traditional argument that all presidential candidates must be white males. 2008 was remarkable as it was a race between Obama and Clinton. Pools of recruitment, the senate and governors are predominantly white males. It is an advantage to be married, only one bachelor Buchanan was elected in 1856. It is said marital infidelity could rule out a candidate, but Clinton in 1992 managed to secure the nomination regardless of allegations regarding Jennifer Flowers and three of the last presidents were divorced, Reagan, McCain and Trump.
Ability to raise large sums – campaigns are expensive, few candidates can afford their own campaign. Only billionaires Ross Perot in 1992 and Steve Forbes 1992 and 2000 funded their own campaigns. It is difficult to raise money before you have begun campaigning; Clinton rose over $700 million during her 2016 campaign.
Effective organisation – the major parties cannot endorse specific candidates, as they cannot use the structure of the party. They must create their own structure but is time consuming and expensive.
Sound and relevant policies – voters often quickly recognise a campaign which is a policy free zone. Candidates must have practical and relevant policies, trump in 2016 was the exception, and he focused on key groups of voters instead.

Question 52

Factors affecting voting - gender

Answer 52

Gender - in 9/10 election between 1964-2000, women were significantly more supportive of the democrat candidate than men. In 2016 the gender gap for Trump was 11 points with 52% of men and 41% of women voting for the republican candidate. This is the widest gender gap for a presidential candidate in over 50 years. The gender gap for Clinton was wider with 54% of women and 41% of men voting for her. This could be due to the novelty as the first major party female candidate. Trumps attitude of women was prominent in the 2016 campaign. He said ‘look at that face, would anyone vote for that’ to fellow republican candidate Fiorina. A month before Election Day a video was released with Trump bragging about sex with different women. Trump received 41% of the female vote which was the lowest since 1964. The gender gap is often thought to be due to key policies. Especially abortion, defence and gun control and therefore women favour the democrats, since they are pro choice and support gun control. Democrats also pushed for the Equal Rights Amendment protecting women in the constitution, this was unsuccessful.

Question 53

Factors affecting voting - race

Answer 53

Race – the most significant minority groups are African Americans and Hispanics. 1980-2016 African Americans never gave less than 83% support to the Democrats. Obama increased the Democrat share from 88% in 2004 to 95% in 2008 and increased the turnout by 13%. Support for Clinton fell back to 89%. Hispanics are a growing group, according to the 2000 census; they formed 12% of the population but 16% by 2010. They make up more than 25% of the population in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas and New Mexico. Bush was a great candidate to Hispanics; he spoke Spanish and had a Hispanic sister in law. The Hispanic voter increased significantly from 20% in 1996 to 43% in 2004 but by 2016 it was down to 28%. Trumps comments about Mexicans did not help his cause, he said ‘they’re rapists’ and promised to built a wall, however despite these comments a quarter of Hispanics still voted for Trump.

Question 54

Factors affecting voting - class and education

Answer 54

Class and education – 30 years ago, the northeast and Midwest traditionally supported democrats however they supported Reagan in 1980 and 1984. The Reagan democrats were traditionally in the rust belt and they were attracted to his economics. However this group returned to the democrats supporting Clinton and Obama. Trump aimed his campaign at the rust belts; he won the primaries in 6 of the 9 rust belt states. He won 7 of 9 in the general election, with 86 Electoral College votes, including four which Obama won in 2008 and 2012. In 2008 Obama won Pennsylvania by 11 points, Wisconsin by 14 points and Michigan by 16 points but Trump won all three in 2016. Poorer, older, white, male Americans who felt culturally marginalised due to their views which are ridiculed at backward in the media were targeted by Trump which his message about bringing home jobs and curbing illegal immigration. 62% of white men and 62% of white men aged 45-64 year olds voted for Trump and 71% of white men who did not attend college voted for Trump.

Question 55

Factors affecting voting - geographic region

Answer 55

Geographic region – the northeast has become the heartland of the democrat party; 1984-2008 they gave the democrats the largest percentage. In 2012 the democrats won every north-eastern state. In 2016, Trump broke the blue wall. This is a block of Midwest and industrial northeast states who have solidly voted for the democrats. He won in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The south has moved from being solid for democrats to supportive of republicans. This was shown in 1996 when southern democrats Clinton and Gore were beaten by non southern Republican Dole and Kemp. In 2000 the republicans won every southern state, in 2008 Obama flipped 3 southern states (Virginia, South Carolina and Florida). Clinton only won one southern state Virginia, partly as she chose Virginian Kaine as her running mate. The democrats continue to hold the west coast, with California, Oregon and Washington being democrat states from 1992 to 2106. Bush was the last republican candidate to win a west coast state California in 1988.

Question 56

Factors affecting voting - urban and rural

Answer 56

Urban vs. Rural – the 2016 election revealed how America was divided. Urban areas supported the democrats while small towns and rural areas swung to the republicans. In 2012 Romney won rural areas by 2 points but in 2016 Trump won the same areas by 27 points. Wayne County, Iowa has a 99% white population and is 14% below the poverty level; Trump had a 46 point victory in this area. After the 2016 election, Bernstein wrote not since the election of 1920 has the cultural chasm between urban and rural America has shaped the struggle over the country’s direction as much as today.
Religion – protestant Christianity is linked with the religious right and social conservatism. Protestants are a staple group for the Republican Party, giving 54% to 59% in the last five presidential elections. White evangelicals gave more support. In 2016 Trump gained 81% support from this group. Catholics traditionally support the democrats. But since the 1970s the support has wavered due to democrat’s support of abortion. Democrats won the catholic vote in 3/5 presidential elections but not in 2016 when only 45% voted democrat, the lowest figure in a two party contest since 1984. In 2016 of those who attended a religious service at least once a week, 56% voted republican, while those who said they never attended these services, the republicans picked up 31% to 62% for the democrats.

Question 57

Factors affecting voting - split ticket voting

Answer 57

Split ticket voting – in the 2012 election cycle in the state of Missouri voters backed Romney with 53.76% of the vote in the presidential race whereas in the race for governor they elected Jay Nixon for the democrats with 54.7% of the vote. In 2004 4 states, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and North Dakota voted for Bush but elected a democrat to Senate. However in 2016 all 34 states which were previously split voted the same way for the president and in the senate. They are also split districts but these have declined. In 2016 there were 23 districts that elected a republican to the house but Clinton for president and 12 who voted for Trump but a democrat to the house. In Minnesota 62% voted for Trump for president and 53% voted for Democrat Collin Peterson.

Question 58

Factors affecting voting - abstention

Answer 58

Abstention – the 2016 US election provided a turnout of 58%. In hundreds of counties the number of eligible individuals who did not vote outweighed the number of ballots cast. If the people who did not vote voted for the same candidate that candidate would have won by a landslide.

Question 59

What causes abstention in the US

Answer 59

Democratic overload
This is a concept that the US is bombarded by too much democracy. The federal system means there are frequently local and national elections. Primary turnouts are 20-30% and Americans are expected to vote for everyone ‘from the president to the local dog catcher’. This makes voters apathetic. The US have attempted to increase turnout, in 2002 congress passed the ‘Help America Vote Act’, this implemented reforms to registration after a turnout of 51% in 2000 elections.
Negative campaigning
This alienates voters from the political process, as many voters do not want to vote for any candidate and they become dissatisfied with the nasty element of campaigns. In the 2016 primaries Republican Nunes referred to congressman Amash as ‘Al-Qaeda’s best friend’ for criticising the NSA’s surveillance methods. This shows how US elections focus on the negatives of the opposing candidates rather than their own positives.
Education – more than 80% of college educated Americans vote, compared to 40% of Americans who did not.
Income – if a voter earned over $75,000 they had a turnout of 86% but if a voter earned less than $15,000 the figure is cut to 52%. The first group has an abstention rate of 14% compared to the lower income group of 48%.

Question 60

Realigning elections - 1932

Answer 60

This was a realigning election as from 1921-1932 all presidents had been republican. The campaign focused on the great depression of 1932. Hoover was seen as a do nothing president and he blocked the Garner-Wagner Relief bill which would have created jobs during the depression. Hoover also dealt poorly with the bonus marchers. Roosevelt was active and he was the first president to travel across the country campaigning. He travelled 20,800 km and he gave 16 major speeches and 60 more on his train. Roosevelt also promised a new deal with the beer act in 1933 ending prohibition, fireside chats with 60 million listening each week, solving the banking crisis with the emergency banking act and his alphabet agencies. On Election Day Roosevelt received 57.3% of popular vote and won the electoral vote 472 to 59, Americans also elected substantial democratic majorities in congress.

Question 61

Realigning elections

Answer 61

They describe elections that cause a significant shift in the way voters align themselves. This can be such a political realignment may centre on a critical election or be spread among several elections. A realigning election can be called a critical election, political realignment and describe a dramatic change in the political system.

Question 62

Realigning elections - 1968

Answer 62

The 1966 elections reinstated the republicans as a large minority in congress and social legislation slowed. The run up to the 1968 election was transformed in 1967 when Minnesota’s democratic senator challenged Johnson on his war policies. The war in Vietnam became increasingly unpopular and so did Johnsons approval ratings. The election year was marked by the assassination of Martin Luther King and riots spread across the nation. Nixon ran a campaign on the promise to restore law and order and provide new leadership in the Vietnam War. When the 1968 democratic convention occurred thousands of activists gathered to protect the Vietnam War, this lead to the Chicago police brutally attacking the protesters while the media was broadcasting it. Nixon confronted Johnson in his speech called the ‘Manilla Questions’. This showed Nixon could compete with a sitting president. After the democrat convention in late August Humphrey trailed Nixon but in October after distancing himself from the Johnson administration his polls increased. The election proved to be close, Nixon won the popular vote by 512,000 votes but he won the electoral vote by 301 to 191. This was a realigning election as between 1932-64 the democrats were the largest party, winning 7/9 elections and their agenda influenced republican presidents like Eisenhower. The 1968 election reversed the situation completely, from 1968 until 2004, they won 7/10 elections and its policies influenced the democrats with the Clinton administration and the third way.

Question 63

Realigning elections - 2008

Answer 63

There were three presidential debates between Obama and McCain. John McCain proposed a series of 10 town hall meetings with Obama but he suggested one town hall event and four traditional debate appearances. McCain’s confidence lowered when Obama questioned his ideas on the financial crisis and neither McCain nor Bush had read Henry Paulson’s $700 billion recovery plan. The Obama campaign’s fundraising broke previous records for presidential primary and general campaigns. They avoided using public campaign funds, raising money privately from individual donors. They raised $650 million. Social media websites like Facebook allowed Obama to create relationships with his supporters, this increased his support. In 2007 he created his own social networking site and recruited Christ Hughes (co-founder of Facebook) to develop the platform. Obama became the first African American president after he gained 53% of the vote and 365 electoral votes. The popular vote was the best showing for any presidential candidate since George Bush in 1988 with 63% of the vote.