Electoral Process and Direct Democracy Flashcards
Timings of elections
- Presidential elecion every 4 yrs
- Congressional every 2yrs
- All other elections such as state, primaries decided by states
Role of states in election
- States decide on issues like voter id, Texas requires one
- Gerrymandering
- Organization of primaries
The electoral system
Electoral college
- 48 states use winner takes all
- Nebraska and Maine use PR
Gerrymandering
Manipulation of electoral districts for party advantage at elections
- Occurs every 10yrs after national census
- Most states, state legislature redraws districts
- CA, AZ uses independent comission
How effective is the US electoral system?
Strengths
- Lots of elections increase political participation.
- Clear results due to FPTP
- Primaries/caucuses, voters select candidates for political parties.
- EC ensures smaller states not ignored
Weaknesses
- Voter fatigue
- FPTP favors 2 party system
- Ways of manipluating such as gerrymandering, voter ID
- EC undemocratic
Main characteristics of American election campaigns
Frequency
- Campaigning never stops
Individuality
- Trump 2016 MAGA, Build the Wall
Getting the ‘right’ people to turn out and vote
- Texas stricter voter ID, 600k lacked required ID
The swing movement
- 2016, 273/399 presidential campaigns were in swing states
Clinton 93M in FL, Trump 35M
Money
- 2020 election 14b, 7b on Congress races
- 2024 election Harris 740m Trump 345m
Midterms
Obama lost HOR in 2010, Trump 2018
Selection and nomination of candidates
Primaries/caucuses select delegates to vote for candidate at national nominating convention
- CA primaries 2020 70% turnout, 2024 34%,
- NY closed primaries
- Supertuesday 2020, 14 states held primaries
What are the main advantages and disadvantages of the primary/caucus system?
Advantages
- Political participation.
- Allows political outsiders to run for major office, Trump
- Less well-known candidates can build up momentum
- Democratic
- Test the candidates by media presence, fundraising
Weaknesses
- Increases focus on candidates instead of party, Bernie Sanders
- Outsiders lack experience
- Low turnout
- Voter fatigue
National nominating conventions
Formal announcement of the candidate
- 2024 Republican National Convention Wisconsin
- Chance to unite divide party
- Gives momentum to candidates campaing
- Begins presidential campaign
The Electoral College
270/538 votes to win the presidency
- Nebraska and Main use PR
- CA 54 ECV, FL 30, NE 5, NY 28, TX 40, MI 15
- Trump 2016 304, 2024 312
Times when EC failed
2000 Bush v Gore
- Bush 271 ECV, 50.5m votes
- Gore 266 ECV, 50.9m votes
2016 Trump v Hilary
- Trump 304 ECV, 62.9m votes
- Hilary 227 ECV, 65.8m votes
Should the Electoral College be abolished?
Arguments for Electoral College
- Delivers clear results
- Reflects federal nature of the USA
- Prevent regionalism
- Can be reformed instead of abolished
Arguments for abolishing
- Failed 2 times in last 25yrs
- Smaller states overrepresented
CA has 1ECV 712,000, Wyoming 1ECV per 195,000.
- Too much focus on swing states
- Undemocratic
- Lower turnout 60% 2016
Key factors that affect the outcome of American elections
Incumbency
- 2020 95% of HOR and 84% of Senate re-elected
Issues
- 2024 Border Crisis
Media
- Trump 2024 Social Media, TikTok 150m users 62% 12-29
- Kennedy win v Nixon 1960, 1st ever debate, 70m
Leadership and other individual qualities of candidates
- Trump MAGA
Voter profile
Money
- Harris 740m, Trump 335m 2024
- Biden 1b, Trump 710m 2020
Voting behaviour in the USA
Age
- 2024 18-29 56% Dem
Race
- 20/24: 58% white voted Rep, 87% black Dem, 65% vs 53% latino voted Dem
Gender
- 20/24: 49%-54% Males Rep
Education
- 24/20: No College Degree 51% Rep
Religion
- 24/20: Christians 60% Rep
Money
- 24/20: 50k 39% Rep, over 150k 53% Rep
Guns
- 24/20: Owners 64% in 24 Rep
Political Action Committees (PACs) and Super (PACs)
PACs
- Can raise and distribute money to favoured candidates, up to a maximum of $5,000.
Super PACs
- Can raise unlimited amouns of meny but cant directly spend on candidate
- Musk 118M America PAC
Does money make a difference?
Yes
- 2020 1b Biden, 710m Trump lost
No
- 2016 1.2B Clinton , 650m Trump won
- 2024 740m Harris, 345m Trump won
Should US campaign finance be regulated?
Yes, it should be regulated
- Expenditure got out of control in recent years.
- Cost of election stops candidates from trying
- Too much focus on fundraising
- Wealthy individuals too much influence
No, it should not be regulated
- 2024 less spending than 2020
- Fundraisising crucial part of democrtic process
- Political donations are traceable
- Money not always winning factor
Ballot initiatives
Laws or measures proposed by voters
- California Proposition 8 (2008) Ban of same sex marriage
52.2% Yes, ruled unconstitutional by Supreme Court in 2013
- Florida Amendment 4 (2018) Restoring voting rights to felons
64% Yes
Recall elections
Voters can force an elected state official to face re-election before their full term has expired.
- 2003 Gray Davis recall
55% Yes to recall, replaced by Arnold
59% Turnout
Referendums
Occur where the state legislature passes a law but is then
required to submit this directly to voters for approval
- 2012 Colorado Amendment 64 Legalization of Marijuana
55% Yes, 1st state to legalize marijuana for recreational use, 70% turnout
How well does direct democracy work in the USA?
Works well
- Direct say
- Variations between states
- Additional check on state officicials
- Political participation
Does not work well
- Tyranny of majority
- Inconsistencies and variation in laws between states
- Prevents officials from doing their job
- Low turnout
- Ordinary voters not always understand the law
Split ticket voting
Voter votes for candidates from different parties in same election.
- 2008 20% of split tickets
- 2016 Congress and President election corresponded
- 2020 16 disctricts split vote
Overall declining due to partisanship and polarization
Turnout levels increaising or decreasing?
Declining
2016 Election 60% turnout
2024 California primaries 34% turnout
2003 Gray Davis recall 59%
Increasing
- 2024 Election 64% turnout
- 2020 California primaries 70% turnout
- 2012 Colorado Amendement 64 70% turnout
Reasons for high abstention levels
- Some states fellons banned from voting
- Some states have complex voting systems
- High threshold to get the ballot
- Some tougher voter ID
- Lack of visible choice
- Mosly use of majoritarian system
- Voter fatigue
- Solid State v Swing
WI 73.6% CA 65% FL 62%
