Electoral examples Flashcards
How many seats did the Conservatives lose in 2017?
13 (despite a gain in vote)
“How many seats did the Conservatives gain in 2019?
What did this make their majority?”
gain of 48 seats, giving them an 80 seat parliamentary majority
Why did the Conservative’s number of seats vary so much in 2017 and 2019, despite only having a 1% difference in vote share?
The gap between Conservatives and Labour was an important element of the different outcomes. In 2017 Labour increased its vote share to 40%, not far behind the Conservatives 42%. Labour’s share then fell to 32% in 2019, well behind the Conservatives 43% and the FPTP system translated into a sizeable gap
When did elections happen early under the fixed term parliament act?
In 2017 and 2019, due to a 2/3rds majority in votes
What body used the closed list system of PR
European Parliament from 1999 to 2019
Where in the UK uses STV?
Assembly, local and parliamentary elections in Ireland as well as local elections in Scotland
Where in the UK uses SV?
Mayor of London, directly elected mayors, police and crime commissioners were elected using SV up until May 2023
Where in the UK uses AMS?
Scottish Parliament, Senned and Greater London Assembly
What examples show that FPTP is a system of plurality and doesn’t require a majority (50% +1 vote) to win a seat?
(x2 examples)
In 2019, victorious candidate in Sheffield Hallam, Labour’s Olivia Blake won only 34.6% of the vote. The Lib Dems in second won 33.4% of the vote.
The winning candidate in Belfast South in 2015 secured fewer than one in four votes
What example shows that votes don’t equal one person, one vote because of difference in constituency size?
The most populous constituency in 2019 was the Isle of Wight, which had an electorate five times larger than the smallest one, which is the western Isles (113,021 compared to 21,106)
What example highlights that all constituency seats tend to be the same size?
With the exception of 5 island seats across the UK, all constituencies will have electorates that deviate by no more than 5 percentage points from the UK average.
What does population change mean for the formation of constituencies?
ten constituencies will be added to England, but Wales will lose 8 constituencies and Scotland will lose 2
Where has the largest safe seat?
The safest seats in the 2019 general election were Liverpool: Labour won 85% of the vote in Liverpool, Walton, and has a majority of almost 40,000 in Knowsley
What have been some examples of the closest marginal seats?
In 2017, the SNP won north east Fife by just two votes
What example shows that marginal seats are in long term decline (consider decline and increases in safe seats)
In 2019, 67 seats were won by a margin of 5% or less compared to 91 in 2010. The number of very safe seats has increased in each of the last four general elections, with 68 seats seeing a party win by a margin of 45% or more.
What is an example of a faction party finding it very difficult to win seats?
The social democratic party (SDP) was formed by dissatisfied Labour MPs in 1981. It fought the 1983 election in an alliance with the liberals, winning 25% of the vote, but only 23 seats.
What is an example of an outsider party finding it hard to breakthrough?
UKIP won its only seat at a general election in 2015, but this was a poor reward for 12.6% of national vote.
What examples show a decline in the two party trend?
(x2)
In 2010, the Conservatives and Labour only received 65% of the vote - a postwar low
Support for parties other than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dem reached a record 25% in 2015
What happened in 2017 to the two-party system?
The 2017 general election reversed the two party system trend as the two main parties had 82% of the vote combined, the highest since 1970. This gave them 89% of seats
What example shows the emergence of a multi-party system in 2017 nationally, despite high levels of voting for the two main parties
the SNP remained the largest party in Scotland and the Conservatives relied on support of the DUP
What does the 2017 outcome show us about FPTP?
FPTP still did not deliver a parliamentary majority, as the small gap between labour and conservative denied the conservatives of a winners bonus
What % of the electorate voted for the two main parties in 2019?
76%
When did the two main parties each gain large winner’s bonuses
Conservatives had landslide victories in 1983 and 1987, with Labour having big landslides in 1997 and 2001
When has FPTP been bias to one major party?
Labour from 1997 to 2010 and Conservatives from 2010. Labour needed fewer votes than the Conservatives to win seats between 97 and 2010, but the opposite has been the case since 2015
Example of differential turnout between the two parties
In 2019, turnout in Conservative held seats was more than 5% higher than in Labour held seats.
What is an example of UKIP facing discrimination?
In 2015, despite major increases in their share of the vote, only one emerge victorious. UKIP came second in 120 constituencies but was only within 10% of the votes of the winning party in two of these
What is an example that concentrated regional support benefits parties under FPTP?
The SNP won 50% of the Scottish vote in 2015, but won 95% of the seats
What were the results of the 1983 election like for the Conservatives
Landslide victory of, gaining 37 seats, despite a 1.5% fall in the share of the vote. The 144 seat majority refelcted the party’s 15 percentage point lead over labour. They benefitted from the split of anti-conservative votes between labour and the Alliance
In 1983 election, how did Labour perform?
They only received 660,000 more votes than the Alliance, but won 186 more seats, as they were effectively distributed. This means Alliance got 25% but only 23 seats whereas Labour got 27.5% and 209 seats
How did the Alliance perform in 1983 showing that FPTP discriminates against minor parties?
They received 25% of the vote, but only 3.5% of seats, racking a series of second and third place finishes without reward
What was the result of the 2010 election for the conservatives?
This was the first time since 1974 to produce a hung parliament. The Conservatives fell 19 seats short of a majority.
What were the election results of 2019 like and what does this show?
Shows FPTP can still deliver a strong, single party government. An 80 seat majority was the largest since 2001. However, the Conservative lead of 11.5% points might have been expected to have delivered a larger majority. The Conservatives aloso had an 11.5% lead in 1987, but this brought a majority of 101
How did the Conservatives and Labour perform in the 2019 election?
The Conservatives share of the vote increased for the sixth general election in a row as they recorded the best performance (43.6%) since 1979. Labour’s total of 203 seats was at its lowest since 1935, in the crumbling of the red wall, which could show the decline of the right left system as people didn’t like the ideological JC
How did the Lib Dems perform in 2019?
Nationwide support increased by 4 % points, but they suffered a net loss of one seat
What is an example in 2005 of a huge winners bonus?
In 2005, Labour’s 2.8% point lead and 35% vote share gave it a parliamentary majority of 66
When has a party become government even though they did not receive the highest number of votes?
Since 1945, the party coming second in popular vote has twice won more seats than its opponent. In 1951, the Conservatives won more seats than Labour, despite winning fewer votes, while in February 1974, Labour won most seats and Conservatives most votes
What are some examples of electoral deserts in 2019?
(x3)
In the southeast, Labour won 22% of the vote but only 9% of the region’s seats
Also in the south east, the Lib Dems won 18% but just one of 84 seats
In Scotland, Labour received 19% of the vote and only one seat
In what ways is FPTP negative because it’s a plurality system rather than a majoritarian one?
(x4)
-In 2010, a record 2/3rds of MPs did not achieve a majority in their constituency.
-In 2005, Labour won a parliamentary majority with 35% of the UK vote.
-The general election of 1935 was the last time that the governing party won a majority of the popular vote.
-In 2010, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrat coalition won a combined vote of 59%
What % of votes in 2019 were casted for a losing candidate?
45%
What % of votes in 2019 were casted for a candidate who had already won and didn’t need the surplus of votes?
this surplus amounted to 26% of the vote in 2019.
What does the case study of the 1997 election show us about tactical voting?
Labour received a swing of 10.2%, giving a record tally of 418 Labour MPs and a parliamentary majority of 179. Labour and the Lib Dems greatly benefitted from tactical voting, as the Conservatives lost 50 seats
Example to show a difference in the regional support for parties, showing FPTP no longer does what it’s meant to do
In 2015, 17 and 19, different parties topped the poll in each different nation of the UK
What shows that FPTP is now less effective in persuading people to not vote for smaller parties
Support for the Lib Dems hit 23% in 2010.
What is an example of when SV was used and it didn’t elect the candidate with the most first preference votes?
In the 2021 Cambridge and Peterborough mayoral elections, the candidate who secured the most first preference votes was defeated after second preferences were counted.
What was the results of the NI Assembly election in 2017 using STV?
DUP won 28.1% of first preference and won 31.1% of seats. Sinn fein won 27.9% of first preference votes and won 30% of seats
What are the statistics for the deviation of proportionality between 1997 and 2021, using AMS, FPTP and STV?
FPTP: 18.5, STV: 7.1, AMS in Scotland: 10.5
What example shows that other election systems used elsewhere are still disproportionate?
The outcome of the 2016 Welsh Assembly election was noticeably disproportional. The large number of seats delivered to Labour by FPTP could not be fully corrected by the distribution of the smaller number of regional list seats
Examples of how ballot sheets are filled out wrong because they are too confusing?
(x2)
The design of the ballot paper was changed after the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, when 146,000 ballots were completed incorrectly.
At the 2021 London mayoral election, 114,000 second preference votes were rejected because the ballot papers were completed incorrectly.
In the 2021 mayoral election, what example can be used to show alternative voting methods don’t provide from greater sophistication of voting?
320,000 didn’t use their second preference vote and 265,000 cast it for the same candidate as their first preference
In 2019, how many votes did the Lib Dems need for 1 seat, compared to the Conservative?
The lib dems received one seat for every 336,038 votes, whereas the Conservatives only needed 38,264
How would the 2019 vote have been different if PR was used?
-the Conservatives would have 77 fewer seats
-Labour would have 10 more seats
-The Greens would have 11 more seats
-Lib Dems would take a further 59
Discuss the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections and what it tells us about AMS (Specifically discuss the green party)
-SNP dominated constituency contests, winning 62 of the 73 seats as 48% delivered 85% of constituency seats, but added only two list seats
The party fell one seat short of an overall majority, but with greens winning 8 regional list seats, pro-independence parties hold a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament
-The Greens perform much better in the regional contests, where they averaged 8.1%, than in the constituency vote, where they averaged 1.3%
this was The third time that AMS had produced an SNP minority government, but they agreed a power sharing deal with The greens.
What made the 2015 election so disproportionate?
The conservatives won a majority of the seats with 38% of the vote, UKIP won a single seat, despite winning almost 13% and the SNP won 95% of Scottish seats with 50% of the vote in Scotland
What examples shows the coalition government was actually very strong?
It was only defeated 6 times in the commons in 5 years
What phrase describes the trend of the outcome of the 2017 election
The third strike of FPTP
What happened to Dennis Skinner in the 2019 election? Who else’s seat was lost in the election?
He had held the seat in Bolsover for 49 years. At 87 years old, he was set to become the father of the house, but he saw his vote share decline by 16% and lost his seat to the Conservatives
Tony Blair’s former constituency of Sedgefield was won by the Conservatives in 2019 by over 4,500 votes, comapred to when Blair when it with a majority of more than 25,000
Discuss the electoral fortune of the Lib Dems and the SNP in the 2019 election
Lib Dems won 11.6% of the vote but just 11 seats. Meanwhile, the SNP secured 48 seats from 3.9% of the vote
Example of a winner’s bonus
In 2019, the Conservatives won 43.6% of the vote, but 56% of seats
