Elections Examples Flashcards
Popular vote not correlating with presidential winner due to Electoral College
2016: Trump elected with only 46% of the popular vote, compared to Clinton’s 48% and 3 million more votes
2000: Bush won against Al Gore with 5 more electoral votes but 543,000 less of the popular vote
Election Spending Correlating with Victory?
- 2022 US Senate election in Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock campaign raised $150 million and beat his opponent Herschel Walker whose campaign raised $58 million
- NRA spent only $639000 opposing Warnock in the election
Turnout
- Less participation in Midterms (2022 = 47% turnout) than Presidential (2020 = 66% turnout)
- Primaries have very low turnout e.g. 2020 Democrat and Republican presidential contests had 23% combined
- Caucuses have particularly low participation e.g. 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus had 15% (all the major candidates aside from Haley withdrew afterwards)
Value of Primaries?
- 2024 Republican: Since Trump landslide in Iowa most competitors withdrew, Jan: Ramaswamy and DeSantis, March: Haley after losses on Super Tuesday
- 2020 Democrat: National Convention at the end created party unity, Sanders withdrew and supported Biden 4 months prior
- Provide additional legitimacy to candidates e.g. Raphael Warnock received 94% of the vote in the Georgia senate Democrat primary
Electoral College Disproportionate Representation
Small states over represented
- California (most populated): one electoral vote per 718,000 people
- Wyoming (least populated): one electoral vote per 192,000 people
Problems with Winner-take-all
All but two states use it, similar to FPTP
- Encourages two-party politics due to wasted votes
- 2022 House election: All but 2.7% of vote went to non-Rep/Dem candidates
- 2022: 3 independents in Senate, none in House
Turnout
2020 Presidential: 67%
2020 New Hampshire Democrat Primary: 52%
2024 Iowa Republican Caucus: 15% of registered Republicans
2016 Washington Democrat Primary: 30%
