ELECTIONS AND REFERRENDUMS Flashcards
- Explain and analyse three strengths of majoritarian (FPTP) electoral systems?
P – Traditionally produces clear and decisive results.
E – Enabling a party to govern with a strong majority. This happened with Tony Blair’s clear victory in 1997 - 179 SEAT MAJORITY. The Government had no-one else to blame – it had the majority in the House of Commons. Voters can judge the Government on the pledges it made - and kept.
A - This allows manifesto policies and other laws to be passed more efficiently in the House of Commons. It also means that a government can be held more accountable,
P – Provides high transparency and comprehensibility
E – 68% voted no in the AV referendum as the system and campaign were deemed as convoluted and complex in comparison to FTPT where you go, cast a single vote and the majority party wins.
A – No desire to change a functional, simple system which is familiar to the British public
P – Strong local links
E – One representative voted by the constituency.
“We should all know our MP, and if there is something not going right we can see them in their Friday surgeries or write to them until they do something.” Sue McGregor
A – The fact that voters can communicate with their local MP and express their views, is significant in building trust and political engagement. Interests of electorates at the forefront of their decisions
- Explain and analyse three strengths of the Additional Member System (AMS)?
P – Fairer representation in parliament
E – Delivers a reasonably fair and proportional result. For example, Lothian region produced a result that reflected the will of the people more accurately. Conservatives won 25% with 24% vote.
A – Significant as it more accurately mirrors the direction in which people voted
P – Vote value is high is an AMS system
E – Smaller parties which may not be located in a concentrated area can still gain seats. Specifically, the Scottish Green Party won 8 seats in the Scottish Parliamentary elections in 2021 due to regional lists and thus were in a power sharing agreement with the SNP for 3 years.
A – Encourages turnout as votes are not wasted in safe seats and tactical voting is not necessary to the same extent as FPTP
P – Fosters negotiation within parliament.
E – Often produces a multiparty government in which debate and compromise is an important tool. Never has this caused instability or early elections in Scottish parliament despite the SNP only having a majority once in 2011.
C – Some parties in the agreement lack a national mandate reducing accountability.
A – Minority parties can influence legislation through negotiations with the larger parties.
- Explain and analyse three arguments in favour of reforming the system used for Westminster elections.
P - It is not proportional meaning that there is a disparity between a party votes and their seats.
E – In 1983, 23% seats would not have been gained if a more proportional system had been used.
A – Unfairly disadvantages small parties, creating a two party system which over rewards the winning party.
P – Lower vote value as more votes are wasted.
E – Even if a party comes second, all the votes gained by that party are wasted, only the votes of the winning party count. Votes sometimes wasted on smaller parties suc as he Brexit party which gained 600,000 votes and no seats.
A – Lead to tactical voting, vote not for parties which they necessarily support but which they dislike the least.
P - Unfairly benefits parties with clustered geographical support.
E – They are more likely to win constituency seats if a party has strong geographical support. 2019 – the SNP won over 80% of Scottish seats with only 45% of the vote share
A – Tactical campaigning, also important in allowing smaller parties such as the SNP ot gain more seats.
- Explain and analyse three arguments in favour of maintaining the majoritarian system (FPTP) used for Westminster elections.
P – Traditionally produces clear and decisive results.
E – Enabling a party to govern with a strong majority. This happened with Tony Blair’s clear victory in 1997 - 179 SEAT MAJORITY. he Government had no-one else to blame – it had the majority in the House of Commons. Voters can judge the Government on the pledges it made - and kept.
A - This allows manifesto policies and other laws to be passed more efficiently in the House of Commons. It also means that a government can be held more accountable,
P – Provides high transparency and comprehensibility
E – 68% voted no in the AV referendum as the system and campaign were deemed as convoluted and complex in comparison to FTPT where you go, cast a single vote and the majority party wins.
A – No desire to change a functional, simple system which is familiar to the British public
P – Strong local links
E – One representative voted by the constituency.
“We should all know our MP, and if there is something not going right we can see them in their Friday surgeries or write to them until they do something.”Sue McGregor
A – The fact that voters can communicate with their local MP and express their views, is significant in building trust and political engagement. Interests of electorates at the forefront of their decisions
- Explain and analyse three factors that explain voting behaviour.
P – Media campaign
E – Margaret Thatcher. 16 TV appearance and documentary – woman at number 10.
P – Personality of a party leader
E – Blair vs Major. Blair presented as young, charismatic and energetic in contrast to Major who was often mocked satirically as uncharismatic and weak. Blair remarked “ I lead my party, he follows his”
P – Social class
E – Traditionally the bulk of working class people voted for Labour whilst middle and upper class voters voted Conservatives. Parties adopted policies designed to appeal to their specific voters
A – Decreased significance as in 2019 Conservatives won across all social classes.
- Explain and analyse three primacy factors that explain voting behaviour.
P – Social class
E – Traditionally the bulk of working class people voted for Labour whilst middle and upper class voters voted Conservatives. Parties adopted policies designed to appeal to their specific voters
A – Decreased significance as in 2019 Conservatives won across all social classes.
P – Age
E – Older voters are more likely favour traditional Conservative policies such as lower taxation and higher pensions. Meanwhile younger voters tend to have less money and are less likely to own a House so are more likely to vote Labour. 67%of 65+ voted Labour in comparison to 21% 18-24 yr. olds
P – Ethnicity
E - Ethnic minority votes are likely influenced by party policies on issues such as immigration and discrimination. Labour’s historic stance as the party of social justice and equality has resonated with many ethnic minority voters. Labour won the votes of 64% of all Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters, while only 20% voted for the Conservatives
- Explain and analyse three recency factors that explain voting behaviour.
P – Manifesto’s
E - Labour manifesto did not restrict themselves solely to social policies and focused on what needs to change in society. Their key points included a zero tolerance policy on anti-social behaviour as well as introducing a national minimum wage. The Conservative manifesto wanted to privatise the royal mail and reduce income tax.
P – Strong Leadership
E – Thatcher’s popularity high after victory in the Falklands war. Also emphasis on TV benefitted her portrayal as a strong leader. 16 TV appearance and a documentary called the women at number 10
P – Electoral system
E – Tactical voting. People vote for a party they don’t necessarily align with in order to keep out a party they don’t like. Fear of splitting the vote. Brexit party not standing in the seats the Conservatives won in 2017
- Explain and analyse three recent trends in voting behaviour.
P – Class De-alignment
E – Traditionally, people would vote according to their social class with Labour typically appealing to lower class voters and Conservatives to upper class voters. However, it is less significant now as Conservatives won across all social groups in 2019
A – Long-lasting change in that people increasingly are casting their vote not according to social class.
P-Partisan dealignment leading to voters
E – People not loyalty to one political party and thus are open to persuasion and political advertising.
A – This trend is significant as it means parties must work harder in order to appeal to a wide base of voters instead of ensuring a core voter base votes for them.
P – A rise of identity politics which impacts voting behaviour
E – Discussion of issues maintaining to one’s identity. For example, that of migrants, ethnic groups and LGBTQ plus people. Therefore they are more likely to vote for parties which are more tolerant. For example, migrants may be more likely to vote labour due to their looser immigration policies.
A – Significant as it forces parties to appeal to certain demographics in order to expand their voter base
- Explain and analyse three reasons why age is now one of the best predictors of voting behaviour.
P - Younger voters tend to have a more globalist world view
E – This makes them lest interested in preserving national sovereignty and instead will vote to increase trade links with other countries or enter treaties with other countries. This is perhaps why 73% 18-24 year old voted Remain in the EU referendum in 2016 and 56% Labour in 2016 (the Conservatives having the slogan Get Brexit Done)
A – Young people tend to vote for more liberal global policies and want the political system to foster co-operation internationally.
P – Older voters often have traditional views on identity and immigration.
E – This means that often as one gets older they become more resistant to change and thus vote increasing for right-wing parties. In 2019 67% of over 70s voted conservative.
A – Significant as older voters tend to be more socially conservative in a time of modernisation leading them to vote increasingly for right-wing parties to uphold tradition.
P – Young people are becoming increasing poorer.
E – Specifically, with changes to employment patterns, less job security and rising prices, young people are less likely to have a home and less likely to have disposable income. Labour has traditionally had a stronger appeal to low – income voters
A – Change in the economic climate of the UK has had a significant impact on the direction that young people vote.
- Explain and analyse three reasons for the Conservative general election victory of 1983.
P – Thatcher’s advisors focused hugely on media
E – 16 TV appearances during her campaign and a TV documentary was made called – the woman at number 10. She was also supported by The Sun who condemned Foot saying “Do you really want this old man to run Britain.” Foot only gained 22% of newspaper circulation.
A – Thatcher as an individual and her media portrayal and personality aided the conservative victory.
P – Manifesto’s
E – Labours manifesto deemed the “longest suicide note in history” as it was seen as too left wing. It included the abolition of the House of Lords and nuclear disarmament. Meanwhile conservative manifesto was strong and simple, centred around 3 pillars – Defence, employment and economic prosperity.
A – Policies and manifesto’s decreased support for Labour, allowing the conservatives to secure a victory.
P – Events that occurred before the election campaigns
E – Britain’s victory in the Falklands war improved conservative popularity. Meanwhile, Labour was heavily divided, and the appointment of Foot represented a drastic swing to the left.
A – Background to the election and the swinging of the political compass prior to the election paved the way for a conservative victory and a transfer of votes from Labour supporters to conservative supporters.
- Explain and analyse three reasons for the Labour general election victory of 1997.
P – The parties’ internal state and affairs
E – The Labour Party had moved to the centre of the political centre under Tony Blair. They embraced both left-wing principles such as social justics but combined these with more right wing economic policies such as free market economic liberalism. This allowed them to appeal to a wide range of voters. Meanwhile the Conservative Party was divided over the EU and stories of scandals contradicted their promises of moral propriety.
A - This is significant as both Labour strength and Conservative weakness led to Victory.
P – Use of media
E – Tony Blair met with the Sun’s owner and the paper changed it’s opinion on Labour – backing it in 1997. In fact 62% of the overall newspaper readership was Pro-Labour leadership. On the contraty the Conservatives attacked Blair in New Labour New Danger posters but 64% of the general public disapproved.
A – Significant as advertising campaign allowed for more awareness of policies.
P – Manifesto policies
E – Labour manifesto did not restrict themselves solely to social policies and focused on what needs to change in society. Their key points included a zero tolerance policy on anti-social behaviour as well as introducing a national minimum wage. The Conservative manifesto wanted to privatise the royal mail and reduce income tax.
A – Labour manifesto significant as it broadened its appeal.
- Explain and analyse three reasons for the Conservative general election victory of 2019.
P – Conservative’s clear promise to deliver Brexit
E – Coherent and simple slogan “Get Brexit Done” meanwhile Labour had a convoluted offer of a renegotiated deal and a second referendum.
A – Easy for audience to understand and were tired of the Brexit debate.
P – FTPT system
E – Had an alternative system been used, many voters would have cast their votes in different ways. In fact the ERS suggest the Conservatives would have won 77 fewer seats and the Labour Party would have gained 10 seats and the Liberal Democrats would have gained 59 seats.
A – Significant as it shows that FTPT heavily overrewarded the Conservatives and if a different system had been used, they might not have got a clear mandate or majority government.
P – Younger people less likely to vote but more likely to vote Labour
E – In the election 56% of 18-24 year old voted Labour but only 47% voted compared to 74% of 65 plus. Only 14% of 70plus voters voted for Labour.
A – A low turnout of liberal young voters and a high turnout among older more conservative voters was significant in the Conservative 2019 victory.
- Explain and analyse three ways in which a general election campaign has influenced a general election result.
P – Margaret Thatcher
E - Thatcher’s advisors focused hugely on media. 16 TV appearances during her campaign and a TV documentary was made called – the woman at number 10. She was also supported by The Sun who condemned Foot saying “Do you really want this old man to run Britain.” Foot only gained 22% of newspaper circulation.
A – Campaign which focused heavily on her image aided her election victory.
P – Unsuccessful Conservative Campaign in 1997 led to Labour Victory
E – Blairs campaign portrayed him as young and charismatic and focused on the media and a broad manifesto. The Conservatives created a poster called “New Labour New Danger” which demonised Blair and aimed to smear his reputation. Instead it backfired and 64% of the general public disapproved.
A - The failed attempt at undermining Blair ended up portraying them as desperate.
P – Simple campaign from the Conservatives
E – Clear aim – Get Brexit Done. Labour on the other hand had a more convoluted promise which did not provide the reassurance and certainty needed after almost 3 years of Brexit debates.
A – Importance of a simple, clear message at the heart of the campaign
- Explain and analyse three ways in which three different elections have affected policy- making.
P – 1983 the the development of Thatcherism
E – Huge 144 Conservative majority allowed them to push through increasingly right-wing economic policies. For example , the water, gas, and electricity services, among others, which were state-owned entities before the 1980s were brought into the private sector.
A – Long-lasting as they are still privatised today.
P – 1997 and devolution
E – Devolution to Wales and Scottland in 1999. Gave them some policy making powers
A – Profound as devolved nations are given increasing control over their affairs.
P – 2019 election impacted policy making due to Brexit
E – Withdrawn consequently from the European Court of human rights so the government can create policies that are incompatible with this as long as they are compatible with the HRA.
A – Changed the laws of policies in the UK and thus has influenced policy making significantly.
- Explain and analyse three ways in which the media has influenced three elections you have studied. One must be 1997, one earlier and one later.
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P – 1983 and Thatcher on TV
E – She had 16 TV appearances during her campaign and a TV documentary was made called “ The women at number 10”
A - Thatcher’s media portrayal and personality aided the conservative victory.
P - Tony Blair and newspapers
E - Het with the Sun’s owner and the paper changed it’s opinion on Labour – backing it in 1997. In fact 62% of the overall newspaper readership was Pro-Labour leadership. On the contrary the Conservatives attacked Blair in New Labour New Danger posters but 64% of the general public disapproved
P – Use of social media platforms
E – Significantly higher volumes of engagement from content from Jeremy Corbyn rather than Johnson. Labour also outspent Tories on social media by approx. £5,000.
A – Not a huge factor in the election as younger voters, most likely to vote Labour anyway were those most likely to engage with the content
- Explain and analyse three ways in which party policies and manifestos have influenced voting behaviour in three different elections. One must be 1997, one earlier and one later.
P – 1983 – clear and coherent conservative manifesto versus Labours incredibly left wing manifesto
E – CON – Three pillars, defence, employment and economic prosperity. LAB – Dubbed the “longest suicide note in history” – withdrawal from common market, abolition of H of L and nuclear disbarment.
A – Very significant as it shows that many of the alienated voters of Labour may have found its manifesto promises too extreme.
P – New Labour manifesto promises were focused on current issues and had a brad appeal
E – Some of their pledges involved cutting NHS waiting times, a zero tolerance policy on antisocial behaviour and the introduction of a national minimum wage. This allowed them to avoid confining themselves to simply social policies and attract more right leaning voters
P – Brexit
E – Conservative had a clear slogan “Get BREXIT done “ was easier to understand than Labours convoluted policy which involved a renegotiated deal and a second referendum.
- Explain and analyse three ways in which party leadership has influenced voting behaviour in three different general election. One must be 1997, one earlier and one later.
P – Margerat Thatcher
E – Popular as win in Falklands war. Popular due to her media portrayal as tough and bold, 16 TV interviews and a TV documentary called “The Woman at number 10”
A – Strong portrayal in the media and personal popularity after victory were factors in an increase of Conservative voters who had lost trust in Labour.
P – Tony Blair
E – Presented as young, charismatic and energetic in contrast to Major who was often mocked satirically as uncharismatic and weak. Blair remarked “ I lead my party, he follows his”
P – Jeremy Corbyn
E – Often perceived as “too metropolitan” and removed from concerns of ordinary voters. Former Cabinet Minister Alan Johnson he “couldn’t lead to working class out of a paper bag. Many working class voters commented they switched their vote due to a personal dislike for Corbyn.
- Explain and analyse three different factors that affect turnout in elections.
P – AGE.
E - Older people are more likely to vote. 2017 – 55% 18-24, 65 + - 70%
A – Decreasing significance. According to the British Election Study, turnout among young people has been increasing across the last three general elections. In 2017 Young people had a 16 percentage point increase from 2015.
P- TYPE OF ELECTION
E – Local elections tend to have worse turnout than general elections. 66.6% 2015 vs 46% 2016 local elections
P - CURRENT ISSUES
E – BREXIT. Turnout at the 2019 General Election was 67.3% across the UK which is the second highest since 1997.
- Explain and analyse three reasons why referendums have been held in the UK.
P – EU Referendum 2016
E – Whether the population wanted to remain or leave. According to a self-report questionnaire the most important issues were the threat of immigration and the impact on Britain’s economy. Largely an attempt to settle inter-party disputes and pressure from UKIP.
A – Long-lasting impact on the UK
P – AV referendum 2011
E – Lib Dems in a coalition agreement with Conservatives and demanded an electoral system reform election despite Cameron and the Party being opposed to it.
A – This was not significant as it conveyed the British public was largely uninterested in electoral reform
P – Scottish referendum 2014
E – Yes or no to Scottish independence. Divisive issue with 84.5% turnout and 55.3% voted no to leaving the UK
A – Issue still remains – SNP manifesto and campaigns. Increased demands after BREXIT.
- Explain and analyse three post 1997 referendums and their impact on the UK.
P – EU Referendum 2016
E – Not only has it impacted the UK’s judiciary as UK statute law becomes supreme but also has created a further divide within the union leading to independence calls from Scottland who voted to Remain in the EU with 62%.
A – Many impacts that affect all areas from civil rights to devolution
P – AV referendum 2011
E – Impacted the UK in that it demonstrated the importance of electoral reform to third and smaller parties and a lack of content among some policiticians who are disadvantaged by the system. Continues appear in smaller party manifestos such as the Green Party 2024 Manifesto.
A – Not important. No Long term implications except a Demonstration that there is a lack of desire of for electoral reform and highlighting political apathy and disillusionment. 42% turnout and 68% opposed reform.
A – This was not significant as it conveyed the British public was largely uninterested in electoral reform
P – Scottish referendum 2014
E –55.3% voted no to leaving the UK. Issue of Scottish independence still remains and demands have increased since BREXIT. SNP have been the main party in Scotland for over a decade.
A – Somewhat significant as Westminster denies Scottland a second referendum after the failure of the first
- Explain and analyse three arguments supporting the use of more referendums in the UK.
P – Prevent an elected dictatorship
E – Put a further check on government power and ensures that the British public has their opinions heard to settle controversial arguments
A – Reduces the power of the executive to make significant, long-lasting decisions
P – Increase political participation
E – Spark political debate and make the public more politically literate. Scottish referendum engaged and divided public as 84.5% of registered electorate voted.
A – Somewhat significant as some referendums have incredibly low participation such as the AV referendum with 42% turnout.
P – Combat voter apathy
E – Restore publics faith in the political system. Giving them power over things that affect them the most.
A – Increasingly significant in a climate of political apathy
- Explain and analyse three arguments against the use of more referendums in the UK.
P – Decisions too complex for the public to make an informed decision
E – Presenting the public with a straightforward question with a binary answer undermines details surrounding how details will be achieved. Elected parliament can debate and refine motion.
P – Tyranny of the majority
E – Displayed in the Brexit vote. Was there really a clear mandate with 51.9% vote. Results would disproportionately affect young people who were least likely demographic to vote leave – 27%.
P – Sparks debate which hinder the UKs operation
E – Sparks independence movements and separationism which doesn’t help a unitary state such as the UK work smoothly
EU Referendum results
TURNOUT – 72%
LONDON – 60%
ENGLAND – 46.6%
WALES - 48%
SCOTLAND – 62%
NORTHERN IRELAND – 56%
18-24 – 73%
65 PLUS – 40%
