Elections And Referendums

Question 1

What are some of the main factors we can analyse when evaluating electoral systems?

Answer 1

• proportionality/fair result - proportion of seats should correspond to overall % of vote.
• vote value - all equally important in determining final outcome of election; none wasted.
• promoting participation/turnout
• strong/accountable gov - ppl should feel that gov can deliver promises, but can also reward/punish PM/party.
• local links - MPs represent specific regions; voters can brung grievances/concerns directly.
• power of the party - different candidates from same party to prevent too much power being given too central party bureaucracy/leadership.
• party choice/representation - should encourage/enable broad range of parties to stand.
• comprehensibility/transparency - easy to understand/produce clear results.

Question 2

Why is there debate over electoral reform?

Answer 2

• 2015 - cross-party pressure group Make Votes Matter formed; campaigned for proportional, not majoritarian electoral system for UK GEs.
• parties such as Green, Lib Dem, Brexit handicapped by FPTP.
• proportional systems almost inevitably lead to coalitions; PR unpopular with main parties.
• have potential impacts on voting behaviour; many voters reluctant to choose candidate they feel stands ni chance of winning/vote tactically; may not vote/abstain.
  *eg in European elections (used proportional system since 1999) Eurosceptic parties (UKIP/Brexit) fared much better than in GEs.

Question 3

What is FPTP?

Answer 3

• simple plurality system where candidate with most votes elected/does not have to win by a certain majority.
• used in UK GEs;voters cast one vote for preferred candidate, and candidate with largest number of votes in a constituency will be elected to Parliament as an MP.

Question 4

Advantages of FPTP?

Answer 4

• often leads to strong gov with clear mandate to carry out its policies because the winning party can win a clear majority; 1979-2010: main parties able to dominate gov for lengthy periods.
• gives voters clear choice/promotes a system where two parties dominate.
• provides strong representation in the UK with small constituencies having a single MP to represent their interests; MPs hold surgeries to listen to their needs and offer advice;
  average constituency size in England is 72,000.
• simple/easy for voters to understand;voters choose one candidate with a single vote, and the winning party is the one with the most seats.
• turnout not in steady decline; 65.1% in 2010, 67.3% in 2019.

Question 5

Disadvantages of FPTP?

Answer 5

• number of seats won does not directly reflect proportion of votes cast; eg in 2019, Tories won 77 more seats than vote share entitled them to; third parties underrepresented eg Green won 2.7% of vote, but only won 0.2% of seats (1).
• exaggerates performance of winning party; 1997 - Labour won 63% of seats with 43% of vote; 1983 - Tories won 61% of seats with 42% of vote.
• many votes wasted; 2019 - Brexit party won 644,257 votes but no MPs; biased towards main parties/regional parties.
• does not allow voters to choose between candidates from same party.

Question 6

What is party list proportional representation?

Answer 6

• more than one person elected per constituency in bigger areas.
• parties rank candidates in each area.
• used in UK (except NI) for European elections; country divided into 11 large regions, each electing 3-10 MEPs.
• MEPs elected on basis of vote share.
• D’Hondt system used - allocates seats in successive rounds w/one allocated in each.
  *total votes for each party/number of seats party has already won + 1.
• party with highest remaining total wins seat in that round.

Question 7

Advantages of List PR?

Answer 7

• number of seats won closely reflects actual vote share; eg in 2019 SE England results - Brexit Party won around 39% of overall vote, gaining 40% of seats.
• less chance of votes being wasted; wider range of parties can be expected to win seats.
• an open list system allows voters to choose between candidates of same party on regional list.
• wider range of candidates elected; eg in 2009 - two BNP candidates elected as MEPs.

Question 8

Disadvantages of List PR?

Answer 8

• less straightforward/more cumbersome with multiple rounds.
• closed-list system gives considerable power to central party.
• often produces results where no one party secures majority of seats; 2019 - winning party (Brexit) won just 29/73 seats; more coalition govs almost inevitable -> harder to punish/reward individual parties in gov; post-election deals/compromises.
• weaker local links due to larger constituencies; may also remove notion of an MP serving all constituents.
• turnout of European elections low compared to GEs; 36.9% in 2019.

Question 9

What is AMS?

Answer 9

• hybrid system; mixture of FPTP/List PR.
• used for electing members of Scottish/Welsh parliaments and London Assembly.
• voters have two ballot papers/two votes; first is list of candidates for constituency representative, second is list of parties for region.
  *eg: in Scotland - 73 MSPs selected from first, 56 from second.
• regional list representatives top up any under representation from constituency results.

Question 10

Advantages of AMS?

Answer 10

• ensures a strong link between the MP elected by the FPTP vote and their constituents who directly vote for them.
• has a proportional element to it through proportionally assigning seats to parties from the lists based on the number of votes for each party.
• gives voters more choice because they can use one vote for an MP they support and another to support a party of their choosing.
  *Voters can vote for a ‘split ticket’ where they support an MP from one party and use their party list vote to support a different party.

Question 11

Disadvantages of AMS?

Answer 11

• Smaller parties are less well represented under AMS than in an entirely proportional system because the party list system can advantage the largest parties.
  *In Wales, there are a small number of top-up seats, which favours the Labour Party.
• Party list candidates have less legitimacy than members elected by the FPTP vote because they aren’t directly elected with a personal mandate from voters.
• AMS lacks democratic transparency because the party decides who is on the party list and ranks the order of candidates.

Question 12

What is STV?

Answer 12

• works on basis of multi-member constituencies, where voters rank candidates in order of preference.
• quota worked out based on number of seats and total number of votes cast; candidate w/more first preference votes than quota immediately elected.
• surplus votes transferred to other candidates un proportion to second preference marked on ballots.
• currently used for European elections in NI and Scottish local council elections.

Question 13

Advantages of STV?

Answer 13

• proportional system; tends to deliver results that accurately reflect overall shares of vote; tends to be one most preferred by advocates of a more proportional system, such as the Electoral Reform Society.
• preferential voting reduces potential for wasted votes.
• turnout in NI in 2019 European elections was higher than rest of UK with 45%.
• all elected members represent geographical area; ppl can approach range of representatives.

Question 14

Disadvantages of STV?

Answer 14

• almost inevitably produces coalition/multiparty gov; leads to coalition deals/policy compromises.
• each representative oversees large areas.
• not that straightforward and can be a lengthy process; in Ireland it can take around two full days.

Question 15

What is AV?

Answer 15

• voter ranks each candidate.
• maintains single member constituencies.
• no quota
• candidate that receives more than half of votes elected; can include second preference etc until they do.
• only used for election of chairs to select committees.

Question 16

Advantages of AV?

Answer 16

• ensures that every winning candidate has support of a majority of voters.
• no disincentive to vote for minor party/independent; removes temptation of tactical voting.
• most likely to produce single party gov.
• local links maintained.
• extremist parties unlikely to win big.
• quite easy to understand.

Question 17

Disadvantages of AV?

Answer 17

• favours candidates with broad appeal; parties like Green may miss out.
• not a proportional system; 2017 study showed that it would’ve been less proportional than under FPTP and Lib Dem’s/nationalist parties would’ve ended up with fewer MPs.

Question 18

Should the UK replace FPTP for Westminster elections? (ARGUMENTS FOR)

Answer 18

• other systems (STV/List PR) better reflect vote share; FPTP distorts results.
• only European country to use FPTP.
• party with most votes does not always gain most seats (Feb 1974); Tories had 0.7% more of vote share.
• doesn’t always result in strong single party majority gov (2017).
• discriminates against smaller parties
• many single party govs voted in on low vote share (2015 - Tories w/37%)
• wasted votes; safe seats eg Surrey; smaller parties.
• encourages tactical voting.
• many MPs elected without support of majority of constituents.

Question 19

Should the UK replace FPTP for Westminster elections? (ARGUMENTS AGAINST)

Answer 19

• has traditionally produced strong/stable govs with clear ability to govern.
• easy to understand/familiar
• strong links between MPs/constituents.
• single party govs avoid need for secretive post-election deals (can dilute manifesto promises)
• alternative systems not without flaws
• extremist parties kept out of parliament/gov
• used in USA - arguably most significant democracy in the world.
• political culture centred on two dominant parties; have to have broad appeal/support (resemble internal coalitions).
• quick/straightforward

Question 20

What are some of the factors that influence voting behaviour?

Answer 20

• personality of leader; Blair, Thatcher, Johnson = strong leaders w/bigger majority; May = weak leader w/small majority.
• manifesto promises; eg Labour’s 1983 manifesto too left-wing.
• influence of campaign/media/image; Corbyn - image of an antisemite; Johnson thought to be charismatic; 1992 - ‘It’s the Sun wot won it.’
• voter profile (social class, gender, ethnicity, age)
• individual’s own views/what they consider to be important
• performance of current gov/key issues; Blair/Thatcher; Brexit, Scottish Independence, Environment.
• tactical voting/nature of electoral system; to undermine FPTP, pole found that in 2019, 30% of people would consider voting tactically.

Question 21

What factors determine how a person will vote?

Answer 21

• primacy model - emphasises long-term factors such as social class, age, ethnicity; implies voting patterns are stable w/change when voters feel a particular party no loger adequately represents them.
• recency model - emphasises short-term factors such as issues, leadership; suggests voting behaviour is more volatile/unpredictable.
• economic or valence issues - voters share common preference eg wanting country to be economically prosperous; in theory - no one would vote against someone who promises strong economy; vote cast based on who they believe is best to deliver successful economy; called governing competency - politicians rewarded for strong economy.

Question 22

What are some of the recent trends in voting behaviour?

Answer 22

• class dealignment - class more difficult to determine; less important in how voters see themselves.
• partisan dealignment - parties become less class-based, fewer ppl feel that a particular one is for ‘people like them’; become much more like political consumers.
• more floating/swing voters - more voters less faithful to single party/open to being wooed by range; parties have to work harder at appealing to wide base of voters.
• rise of identity politics - refers to discussion of/campaigning around issues pertaining to one’s identify; women, minority ethnic groups, immigrants, LGBTQ+ ppl, minority religious groups.
• emergence of more third/minor parties

Question 23

Importance of age in determining voting behaviour

Answer 23

• older one is, more likely to vote Conservative
• why?
  *2019 - election particularly focused on Brexit; younger predominantly Remain.
  - older tend to be more socially conservative/concerned about issues such as immigration; younger - climate change.
  - changes to employment patterns, less job security, rising house prices; younger voters often poorer.

Question 24

How many national referendums have there been in the UK and what were they?

Answer 24

• 1975: Should the UK stay in the European Community; Yes - 67.23%, No - 32.77%.
• 2011: AV instead of FPTP; No - 67.90%, Yes - 32.10%.
• 2016: Brexit; Leave - 51.89%, Remain - 48.11%.

Question 25

Why are referendums used in the UK?

Answer 25

• focused on constitutional issues.
• never used for ethical/moral issues.
• held because gov will think it will win, or they reflect political deals.
• never happen because of pressure from below via petitions/direct action.

Question 26

Advantages of referendums?

Answer 26

• engage voters/promotes participation among traditionally less politically active groups; turnout can be higher than in GEs - GFA (81%), Sottish Independence (84.6%).
• offer direct link between policy making/national will.
• can absorb divisions within parties, something not possible at GEs; allows voters to fine tune policy preferences.
• can settle controversial arguments in a more final manner.
• can provide check on gov.
• greater use is made of them in many other Western democracies.

Question 27

Disadvantages of referendums?

Answer 27

• blunt instrument/don’t allow voters to make finer decisions (binary).
• undermine/weaken representative democracy.
• issues may be too complicated; voters swayed by campaign propaganda; many Remainers accused Leave campaign of misleading voters (£350m a week to NHS).
• political debate initiated by them can be bitter/divisive.
• controversial issues not always decided once and for all; many wanted second vote on Brexit after deal/no deal.
• turnout can still be low; 34% in vote over creating London mayor/Greater London Authority, 42% for AV.

Question 28

what are the voting preferences in Scotland?

Answer 28

• left-wing, traditionally Labour; since 2015 there has been SNP dominance burn with a return of unionist parties in 2017, esp Conservatives.
• why? - impact of devolution, becoming more nationalistic, ignored by Lab/big policy clashes with Tories.

Question 29

What are the voting preferences in Wales?

Answer 29

• heavy Labour bias, but with strong levels of support for Tories.
• why? - heavy industry, pockets of unemployment, nationalistic, agree with immigration policies of Tories.

Question 30

What are the voting preferences in Northern Ireland?

Answer 30

• has own party system with split between unionist and nationalist parties.
• why? - religious/cultural divisions, messy history with devolution, socially conservative.

Question 31

What are the voting preferences in London?

Answer 31

• majority Labour
• why? - higher levels of unemployment, poverty, urban decay; greater ethnic diversity.

Question 32

What are the voting preferences in rural England?

Answer 32

• overwhelmingly Conservative.
• why? - mostly white, economically/socially conservative, vote either Tory or Lib Dem, more conservative than London.

Question 33

What are the voting preferences in industrial north of England?

Answer 33

• mostly Labour
• why? - opposition to London-centric policies, greater ethnic diversity, higher levels of unemployment, poverty, urban decay.

Question 34

What are the voting preferences in the Home Counties?

Answer 34

• predominantly Conservative
• why? - London commuter belt, mostly white, economically prosperous, socially conservative, rural areas

Question 35

Different aspects of voting behaviour - class

Answer 35

• historically linked until 1970s; Labour had catered to political demands of working class, highlighted through affiliation to trade unions; class dealignment began taking place d towards end of 20th century.
• evidence for: 2015 - 47% of AB voted Cons, 27% in DE; 26% AB for Lab, 41% for DE.
• evidence against: 2019 - Cons did better among C2DE voters (48%) than ABC1 (43%)

Question 36

Different aspects of voting behaviour - age

Answer 36

• general rule - younger an individual is, the more inclined to for party leaning left; as they age, more likely to vote for right-leaning party; UK has ageing population, so older generations disproportionately represented - impacts the way party campaigns, as older pop has signifiant proportion of votes.
• evidence for: 2019 - for every 10 years older, chance of voting Tory increased by 9 points; Labour - decreased by 8.
• evidence against: 2014 Scottish Independence - 62% of 25-29 voted yes, 33% of 70+ voted yes; only 46% of 16-19 voted yes.

Question 37

Different aspects of voting behaviour - ethnicity

Answer 37

• ethnic minorities still largely working class, so more likely to vote for left-leaning party like Labour; Tories don’t have good relations historically with ethnic communities.
• Labour won votes of 64% of all BAME votes - 2019; seats that had large BAME populations - Labour won 113, Tories won 53.

Question 38

Different aspects of voting behaviour - gender

Answer 38

• has decreased over time; only slight biases of male voters towards Cons and women voters towards Lab; men often vote for parties that prioritise war/nuclear power, women generally vote for parties prioritising education/healthcare.
• evidence for: 2019 - 47% of men voted Tory, 42% of women; 29% of men voted Lab, 37% of women.
• evidence against: 2017 - 45% men Tory, 43% women; Labour - 39% male, 43% female.
• Women used to favour Cons, w/Lab only winning larger share under Blair.

Question 39

Does the class system still matter in UK politics?

Answer 39

YES:
- issues of tax/benefits remain key party distinction.
- many voters still identify with party based on perceived class.
- geographical voting tends to reflect relative wealth/class make-up.
- class inequality/lack of social mobility remain major concerns.
NO:
- successful parties have to appeal across wide range of issues.
- major issues eg immigration cross class divisions
- increased property ownership/improved education make it more difficult to categorise classes.
- size/role of working class declined by more than half.