Elections and referendums

Question 1

Is FPTP a good voting system?

Answer 1

1. (voting)
   Yes, it is easy to understand.
   E.g. the process involves putting an X next to the preferred candidate.

No, it encourages tactical voting.
E.g. in 2017, the Conservatives gained 12 seats in Scotland which was largely due to anti-SNP tactical voting.

2. (constituencies)
   Yes, the MP can act as the face of a constituency
   E.g. each constituency is represented by one MP, so constituents know whom to contact

No, a majority of voters in a constituency may have voted against their representative.
E.g. in 2017 there were 97 marginal seats, won by a margin of 5% or less of all votes.

3. (parties)
   Yes, FPTP tends to produce a two-party system which makes it difficult for extremist parties to win seats
   E.g. the BNP only won only 563k seats in 2010, they won no seats, but under PR they would have won 12 seats

No, minor parties win far fewer seats than if seats were allocated proportionally.
E.g. in 2015 UKIP won just 1 seat for 3.9 million votes.

4. (governments)
   FPTP tends to result in a majority, single-party government who find it easier to pass legislation.
   E.g. there have only been 3 non-majority governments since 1929.

No, FPTP exaggerates the mandate that governments actually have.
E.g. in 1997 Labour won 2.5 times as many seats as the Conservatives but only 1.4 times as many votes.

Question 2

What are the features of the SV system?

Answer 2

1. It is a majoritarian system
   E.g. a candidate needs to win 50% +1 to win an absolute majority
2. Provides more voting options to voters
   E.g. voters can choose a first and second preference candidates
   (which requires broader support than FPTP)
3. Leads to a single member constituency
   E.g. the second preferences are added to the first preferences to produce a winner
   (each constituency is represented by one MP, so constituents know whom to contact)

Question 3

What are the features of the STV system?

Answer 3

1. Proportional system, seats are allocated according to the number of votes
   E.g. In 2017 Lib Dems won 7.4% of the vote but received 1.9% of seats under FPTP, under PR they would have won 7.4% of seats
   (makes coalition governments are highly likely, these may be weak or unstable)
2. There is usually no clear winner in a given constituency
   E.g. leads to large multi-member constituencies
   (there is no face of the constituency, hard to know who to contact if constituents want change)
3. Complex voting process can lower turnout
   E.g. in 2010 general elections turnout was 65.1% under FPTP, compared to Irish assembly turnout which was 57.6% under STV.

Question 4

What are the features of AMS?

Answer 4

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Question 5

How does age influence voting behaviour?

Answer 5

1. In 2017 age was the most important predictor of how people voted in general elections
   E.g. young people were more likely to vote labour than older people, who were more likely to vote Conservative.
   E.g. approximately 19% of 18-19 year olds voted Conservative, 66% who voted Labour.
   Approximately 69% of over 70s voted Conservative, compared to 19% who voted Labour
2. Age was an important factor on the EU referendum
   E.g. in 2016 EU referendum, a majority of 18 to 34 year olds voted to remain, whereas a majority of over-55s voted to leave
3. Age has an important role in turnout
   E.g. 57% of 18-19 year olds voted in the 2017 general election, compared to 84% of those aged 70 or over.

Question 6

How does class influence voting behaviour?

Answer 6

1. Class was traditionally the main predictor of how people would vote
E.g. working class people were more likely to support Labour, whereas middle class voters were more likely to support the Conservatives

2. Middle class voters were more likely to vote to remain in the 2016 EU referendum than working class voters
3. Partisan dealignment since the 1980’s has meant that class is less important in determining voting behaviour.

Question 7

How does gender affect voting behaviour?

Answer 7

1. Men and women may have different priorities, some believe that women are more likely to support parties that favour strong public services, such as the NHS and education
2. Women were more likely to vote to remain in the EU than men
3. Women are as likely to turn out to vote as men

Question 8

How does ethnicity affect voting behaviour?

Answer 8

1. BAME groups are significantly more likely to vote Labour than Conservative
2. White voters are more likely to vote Conservative than Labour

Question 9

How does geography affect voting behaviour?

Answer 9

1. Rural English areas and southern constituencies are more likely to be Conservative
2. Urban areas, particularly in London and the North, are more likely to be held by Labour, as is much of south Wales
3. Regional parties dominate in Scotland and Northern Ireland and have an important presence in Wales

Question 10

What are the theories of voter choice?

Answer 10

1. Rational choice theory, assumes that voters will weigh up all the political options logically and vote for the party that will deliver the best result for them
2. Issue voting, voters prioritise one issue above all others and vote purely based on that issue (Brexit)
3. Valence issues, issues universally accepted to be important. Voters choose a party based on how well they think the party will perform on those issues. The economy is probably the most important valence issue. Other valence issues include healthcare and education.

Question 11

Which factors impacted the 1979 election?

Answer 11

1. (media)
   There was more media focus on leaders than previously
   E.g. Thatcher used television photo opportunities to raise her profile
   E.g. the Sun switched support from Labour to the Conservatives for the first time
2. (party policies)
   Party policies had a large impact on this election
   E.g. the Conservatives focused on getting the economy going again, lowering unemployment and preventing strike disruption
3. (manifestos)
   Manifestos had a large impact on this election
   E.g. Conservative tax cuts and the Right to Buy scheme (giving council tenants the right to buy their council house at a discounted price) were popular with voters
4. (campaigns and leadership)
   Campaigns and leadership a large impact on this election
   E.g. successful ‘Labour isn’t working’ campaign by Conservatives focused on high unemployment.

Question 12

What were the voting patterns of the 1979 election?

Answer 12

1. Middle classes more likely to vote Conservative, working classes more likely to vote Labour
2. All ages more likely to vote Conservative, apart from 18-24 year olds
3. Women slightly more likely to vote Conservative than Labour, men equally likely.

Question 13

What was the impact of the 1979 election on policy?

Answer 13

Thatcher’s majority allowed her to transform Britain by privatising industries, reducing union strikes and adopting a monetarist economic policy (this caused unemployment to double by 1983)

Question 14

Which factors impacted the 1997 election?

Answer 14

1. (media)
   Media had a large impact on this election, New Labour had a proactive approach to the media that was new to UK politics
   E.g. the Sun switched support from Conservatives to Labour ‘give change a chance’ ‘the Sun backs Blair’
   E.g. ‘spin doctors’ managed Labour’s interactions with the media to ensure that daily stories kept coverage ‘on message’
2. (party policies)
   Party policies had a large impact on this election
   E.g. Labour had centrist economic policies, Blair rewrote Clause IV
   E.g. the ‘third way’ was designed to appeal to the centre-left and centre-right social policy

3. (manifestos)
Manifestos had a large impact on this election
E.g. Labour made 5 pledges:
-Cut classroom sizes
-Cut NHS waiting list
-Increase under-25-year-old employment
-Fast-track punishments for persistent young offenders
-Not to raise income tax

4. (party leadership)
   Party leadership had a large impact on this election
   E.g. at 43, Blair was younger than any PM since 1812 and lacked experience, however, his charisma and enthusiasm appealed to voters.
   E.g. negative campaigning from the Conservatives, with ‘New Labour New Danger’ slogan
   E.g. Labour slogan promised change ‘Because Britain deserves better’.

Question 15

What were the voting patterns in the 1997 general election?

Answer 15

1. Labour made big gains among middle class and skilled working class
2. All ages more likely to vote Labour, apart from over 65’s
3. Women and men equally likely to support Labour
4. 70% of BAME voters supported Labour, compared to 43% of white voters.

Question 16

What was the impact of the 1997 election on policy?

Answer 16

1. Blair’s huge majority allowed him to implement a wide range of policies:
   - Devolution
   - Removal of hereditary peers
   - HRA 1998
   - Freedom of Information Act 2000,
   - A minimum wage
   - Increased public spending.

Question 17

Which factors impacted the 2017 election?

Answer 17

1. (media)
   Media played an important role
   E.g. Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, personality and leadership style were widely criticised by the media
   E.g. many newspapers, including the Sun, supported Conservatives
   E.g. May was weakened by her refusal to participate in televised leader debates
   E.g. Labour used social media to counter its negative publicity rather than traditional media and to reach out to younger people
2. (party policies)
   Parties policies played an important role
   E.g. Conservatives’ focus on on Brexit was uninspiring
   E.g. Labour wanted to spend more on public services
   E.g. May’s plans to reduce spending on pensions gave the impression that Conservatives were abandoning the elderly
3. (manifestos)
   Manifestos played an important role
   E.g. the Conservative manifesto seemed ill-considered and senior Conservatives complained they had not been consulted
   E.g. May’s attempt to improve inter-generational fairness by making people pay for home care if they had assets of more than 100k was labelled the ‘dementia tax’, forcing her to modify plans
   E.g. Labour’s promise to abolish university fees appealed to younger voters
4. (campaigns and leadership)
   Campaigns and leadership played a key role
   E.g. May began the campaign with a huge lead of Corbyn in the polls, but was far less popular than him by election day
   E.g. May’s refusal to participate in televised debates
   E.g. Conservative campaign was based on May’s abilities as a leader, promising ‘strong and stable’ governments, this backfired when her personality and policies failed to connect with voters

Question 18

What were the voting patterns in the 2017 election?

Answer 18

1. 46% of highest income households voted Conservative and 38% Labour, whereas 41% of lowest income families voted Conservative and 44% Labour
2. Age was a key predictor, the younger the voter, the more likely they were to vote Labour
   E.g. approximately 19% of 18-19 year olds voted Conservative, 66% who voted Labour.
   Approximately 69% of over 70s voted Conservative, compared to 19% who voted Labour
3. Women supported Labour and Conservatives equally, whereas 39% of men voted Labour and 45% Conservative
4. 73% of BAME voters supported Labour and 19% Conservative.

Question 19

What impact did the 2017 election have on policy?

Answer 19

1. May lost her majority but won most seats, so formed a government with the DUP
2. May’s leadership was fundamentally weakened
3. Conservatives were unable to deliver manifesto promises
4. May was forced to negotiate Brexit while dependant on her critical and divided MPs.

Question 20

Which election had a clear discrepancy between the number of votes and seats gained?

Answer 20

2015 election

1. UKIP won 3.9 million votes but gained 1 seat
2. Greens won 1.1 million votes but also gained 1 seat
3. The contrast between UKIP and the SNP’s result was more startling, the SNP was rewarded with 56 MPs for just 1.5 million votes

Question 21

Which election saw many voters become disenfranchised?

Answer 21

2015

1. 1.5 million Scots voted for the SNP, nearly 50% of the popular vote
2. This means that just over 50% of the Scottish popular vote went against the SNP, yet it received 95% of Scottish seats.
3. Scottish voters who did not vote SNP may therefore claim to have been disenfranchised as their votes did not translate into representation in the Commons.

Question 22

Which elections were greatly influenced by party leadership?

Answer 22

1997

1. Blair’s leadership was crucial to Labour’s landslide win
2. He was young, charismatic and a skilled communicator
3. He used ‘spin doctors’ to manipulate the media and convinced Rupert Murdoch of the Sun to support him
4. He had the vision and leadership to create New Labour, moving the party into the political centre and reassuring many middle-class votes that Labour could be trusted with the economy.

2017

1. Having chosen to fight an election based on her leadership skills, May failed to connect with voters
2. A combination of political mistakes, May’s personal style and her refusal to appear in televised debates resulted in her losing her majority.

Question 23

What are the reasons for calling referendums?

Answer 23

1. Constitutional change
   E.g. in the 1997 devolution of Scotland and Wales
   (gives a specific mandate for constitutional change)
2. Political forces
   E.g. the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
   (governments may feel compelled to call a referendum if nationalist parties are gaining ground)
3. Party or government management, to settle and issue
   E.g. in 2011 when the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition government held a referendum on changing voting systems
4. The Localism Act 2011
   E.g. this Act was intended to devolve power to local governments, including an increase in local referendums. By October 2016, 52 referendums had been held to decide if directly elected mays should be introduced.

Question 24

What are some key referendums since 2000?

Answer 24

1. EU referendum 2016
   E.g.
   -Caused Cameron to resign
   -Led to Theresa May becoming PM
   -The decision to leave put parliament at odds with the majority of the people, as they voted leave by 52% but most MPs were anti-Brexit
   -Caused division within the British public
2. Scottish independence referendum
   E.g.
   -55% of voters voted remain, 84.5% turnout
   -After losing seats in the 2017 election, Sturgeon had to wait to pursue her focus on a second referendum as this had contributed to her party’s poor result
3. AV referendum
   E.g.
   -68% voted to keep FPTP, only 42% of the electorate turned out
   -The low turnout and rejection of AV make it unlikely that any political party will attempt to change the voting system again for many years. The UK continues to use FPTP

Question 25

What are some key referendums since 1975?

Answer 25

1. European Communities referendum 1975
   E.g.
   -67% of electorate voted to stay in the EEC
   -Led to Britain remaining in the EEC, which later developed into the EU
2. Scottish Devolution referendum 1997
   E.g.
   -74% voted yes
   -Led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament and was given devolved powers
3. Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement referendum 1998
   E.g.
   -Gave both republicans and unionists a role in the government
   -STV elections introduced, insuring a mix of political opinion

Question 26

Have referendums strengthened UK democracy?

Answer 26

1. Yes, referendums have enhanced direct democracy, telling politicians what the electorate think more accurately than any opinion poll
   E.g. opinion polls stated that 55% of Brits wanted to remain in the EU, but when the election came around only 48% voted in this way

No, referendums threaten parliamentary sovereignty and representative democracy
E.g. 2016 EU referendum when the public voted to leave, while a majority of MPs wished to Remain.
(showed a disconnection between the people and
their representatives)

2. Yes, high turnout in some referendums is evidence of improved political participation
   E.g. the Scottish independence referendum 2014 had a turnout of 84.5%

No, low turnout in some referendums suggests that the
public are not always engaged in the issues
under consideration. If few people turn
out, it would arguably be better for these
questions to be decided by their elected
representatives
E.g. the AV referendum had a turnout of 42%

3. Referendums give legitimacy to important
   decisions
   E.g. Tony Blair’s devolution project, Scottish Devolution referendum 1997 led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament and was given devolved powers

No, poor-quality campaigns have misled or
confused the public.
E.g. the 2016 EU referendum, the Leave campaigns were criticised for inaccurate claims such as BJ’s ‘350 million per week for the NHS’ while Remain focused on economic risks and failed to give positive reasons to stay.

Question 27

Is party leadership the most important factor in general election?

Answer 27

Yes, party leadership was important in the 2017 general election
E.g. May’s refusal to participate in televised debates. Conservative campaign was based on May’s abilities as a leader, promising ‘strong and stable’ governments, this backfired when her personality and policies failed to connect with voters

No, demographic factors were more important. Although class has become decreasingly influential, the importance of age has become significant
E.g. in the 2017 general election approximately 19% of 18-19 year olds voted Conservative, compared to 66% who voted Labour. Approximately 69% of over 70s voted Conservative, compared to 19% who voted Labour

Yes, Blair’s leadership in 1997 was essential to Labour’s landslide victory
E.g. he was young, charismatic, supported by the media, ‘give change a chance’

No, it was arguably the party policies and manifesto of the party that was most significant. Good policies tend to be decisive in elections
E.g. New Labour's policies connected with a large range of voters, they rewrote Clause IV and designed economic policy to appeal to middle class voters. 
E.g. compared to May poorly thought out policies, the 'dementia tax', and restrictions on pensions which gave the impression that Conservatives had abandoned the elderly

Question 28

Is SV a good voting system?

Answer 28

1. Yes, increased legitimacy
   E.g. a candidate needs to win a 50% +1 vote to win

No, not proportional
E.g. 49% of a constituency could have voted against a candidate but they will still have ultimate authority

2. Yes, increased choice
   E.g. voters can vote for minor parties with their first preference and use their second preference for whichever front-runner they would most like to win

No, it is still very hard for minor candidates to win
E.g. although they may receive support at the first preference stage, larger parties will inevitably overtake them if they have a large number of second preferences

Question 29

Is PR a good voting system?

Answer 29

1. Yes, it is proportional so voters can support minor parties knowing their vote will count
   E.g. under FPTP UKIP won 1 seat for 3.9 million votes, under PR they would have won 82 votes

No, this makes coalitions highly likely

Question 30

Is AV a good voting system?

Answer 30

1. Yes, gives voters a greater choice
   E.g. voters can confidently vote for minor parties with their regional list vote

No, as this creates two classes of representatives
E.g. some represent constituencies, others larger regions

2. Yes, allows a single MP to act as the face of a constituency
   E.g. constituency seats retain the relationship between the MP and the constituency.