Elections And Refendums Flashcards
What are the functions of UK elections?
-selecting representatives
-selecting political leaders
-selecting a government
-participation
-influencing policy by promoting the development of manifestos
-holding government and representatives accountable
-voter education
-legitimising the government by providing a mandate
What are the types of UK elections?
-general election
-devolved assembly elections
-local elections
-PCC elections
-by elections
What is a majoritarian electoral system?
-electoral systems in which the candidates with the highest number of votes in each constituency is elected
-FPTP is classed as majoritarian system (winning candidate only requires plurality rather than a majoirty)
What is a proportional electoral system?
-used to describe a range of system that produces a close fit between the proportion of votes and seats won
-proportional systems use multi-member constituencies and electoral formulas to allocate the seats within them to parties (STV)
How does the FPTP system work?
-650 constituencies = each roughly with 700,000 people (constituency boundaries decided by independent boundary commission)
-seeing winner is simple (candidates with the most votes win, no need for majority)
-winning party is the party with the most seats (to form a gov they must win a majority of seats)
2019: conservatives won 57% of the vote share and 368 seats (hung parliaments happen rarely only in 2010 and 17)
What are the strengths of FPTP?
-simple to understand
-direct link between voters and individual MP
-simple plurality system provides winners a strong bonus (provides strong stable majoritarian gov)
-extremism parties are kept out of parliament
What are the weaknesses of FPTP?
-simple plurality systems means that MPs lack a majority and have a questionable mandate
-produces disproportionate outcomes (2015 UKIp won 3.8 million votes but only got 1 seat)
-millions of votes wasted (70.8% of votes in the 2019 election were case for loosing candidates + winning candidates who already achieved plurality)
-safe seats means votes are wasted
-many voters feel forced to resort to tactical voting
-did not produce strong stable govs in 2010 and 2017
Argument that the FPTP system does meet the Jenkins commission criteria:
-establishes a direct link between MP and their constituency
-produces a stable gov
Argument that the FPTP system does not meet the Jenkins Commission:
-doesn’t give voters a wide choice, tactical voting
-doesn’t deliver a broadly proportional result
Where is STV used?
-used for the Northern Ireland assembly
-local elections in Scotland
How does STV work?
-large multi member constituencies and electoral
-voters number the candidates in order of preferences
-parties have multiple candidates in order to gain seats
-voters can pick candidates from different parties
-candidates have to reach a quota of votes
-first preferences are counted and those who achieve or exceed the quota are elected
-surplus votes from the winning candidates redistributed
-if seats still available those at the bottom are eliminated (their votes are redistributed until the seats are filled)
What are the strengths of STV?
-produces a broadly proportional result
-voters have a much greater choice (they can select multiple parties and priorities candidates)
-fewer wasted votes, surplus votes get redistributed
-smaller parties have a much greater chance of winning
-emirates the problem of safe seats + the need for tactical voting
What are the weaknesses of STV?
-takes a long time for votes to be counted and winner announced
-voting is confusing
-alphabet voting (those higher on the paper are more likely to be picked)
-existing constituency boundaries would need to be redrawn and enlarged (create large multi-member constituencies)
-proportional results means coalitions are more likely
Argument that STV does meet the Jenkins commission criteria:
-gives a proportional result
-gives voters a greater choice
Argument that STV does not meet the Jenkins Commission criteria:
-doesn’t produced a stable government
-doesn’t maintain the link between a single MP and a constituency
Where is the AMS system used?
-Scottish parliament
-Welsh assembly
-Grater London assembly
How does AMS work?
-under AMS voters cast 2 votes (one constituency vote for a local candidates + one regional vote for a party to be allocated proportionally)
-some representatives are elected using FPTP in single-member constituencies and electoral
-‘Additional members’ are elected in multi-member constituencies using the proportional regional list system
-d’Hondt formula is used to allocate seats
-greater number of regional lists, the more proportional the final result
-Scottish parliament elections (73 seats are determined using FPTP in single member constituencies)
-56 seats are allocated using the regional party list system
What are the strengths of AMS?
-combines the best features of FPTP and proportional systems (produces a proportional result (maintains a constituency link)
-fewer wasted votes, the regional vote counts
-voters have a greater choice + can selection a minority party for the regional vote without fearing it will be wasted
-regional party list can be used to improve representation of minorities (alternating male and female candidates on party lists)
What are the weaknesses of AMS?
-system creates 2 class of MP (acceptable to the electorate and others to party leaders)+ led to tensions in MSPs
-party leaders became extremely influential because they determine the composition and order of the party lists
-small parties still under represented
-more complicated than FPTP (increases the risk of incorrectly completed ballot papers)
Argument that the AMS system does meet the Jenkins Commission criteria?
-gives broadly proportional results
-gives voters a greater choice
-maintains a link between a single MP and a constituency
Argument that AMS does not meet the Jenkins Commission criteria?
-does not produce a stable gov
What constitutional reform did Labour promise in their 1997 manifesto?
-AMS was introduced for the Scottish Parliament + Welsh Assembly
-STV was introduced for the Northern Ireland Assembly
-SV was introduced for Mayor of London and PCC’s
-pledge to identify a proportional alternative for FPTP for general elections
What are the advantages of electoral reform?
-greater third party successes (proportional systems have meant that support for third parties has transferred to seats)
-UKIP won the 2014 European parliaments elections + SNP has won successive Scottish parliament elections
-Greater choice (AMS gives voter a greater choice, STV allowed voters to rank candidates from multiple parties + split tickets)
-fewer wasted votes (redistribution of votes in STV and AMS is proportional)
What are the disadvantages of electoral reform brought to the UK?
-minority and coalition govs (argued that this leads to unstable govs)
-has not increased turnout (2021 turnout in Scottish Parliament elections is 63.5%)
-more rejected ballots (more ballots rejected as they are completed incorrectly —> 0.2% rejected under FPTP and 1% under AMS
Why does electoral reform for general elections seem unlikely?
-the Labour Party called their support for the idea when they began winning general elections in 1997
-little public appetite for reform (68% voted ‘NO’ in the 2011 AV referendum)
What are the arguments for the use of referendums?
-genuine democracy (govs may have questionable mandate because of low participation, decisively provides the gov with a mandate on a single political issue)
-settles divisive issues (issues the divide govs and nations e.g 1999 Good Friday Agreement Referendum which gave the UK mandate to implement the Good Friday Agreement
-entrenches constitutional reforms (devolution elections)
-encourages political participation (2014 Scottish Independence 85% turnout + 2016 referendum 75%)
-the electoral commission: ensures referendums are conducted fairly
What are the arguments against the use of referendums?
-poor turnout (AV 2011 41%)
-failure to settle controversial issues (2014 Scottish independence referendum didn’t settle the matter)
-referendums over simplify complex debates
-gov manipulate timing and the questions in referendums
-voter manipulation (2011 AV referendum used to punish Nick Clegg)
-political decisions should be left to elected representatives
-referendums are extremely expensive
-sides in referendums are extremely expensive
What is the sociological model?
-focuses on long term factors (social characteristics) that are the main influence on how individuals vote
What is the party identification model?
-focuses on the long-term factors
-sees voters as psychologically attached to a particular party
-identifying with them and supporting them in spite of any short-term factors
What is the rational choice model?
-focus on short term models
-the spatial model holds that voters will support the candidate who shares their position divisive/ salient political questions
-the valance model assumes that voters nausea their vote on which party appears the most capable
-they consider the party’s leader, reputation, branding and the media coverage
What are primary factors affecting voter behaviour?
-region
-class
-gender
-age
-ethnicity
What are recency factors affecting voter behaviour?
-key issues/ policies/ manifestos
-performance in office
-leaders
-image
-media coverage
How does class affect voting behaviour?
-recently we have been class realignment
-2017 general election saw a weak correlation in class
What are the causes of class de alignment?
-post industrial society: recently economy has undergone a transition from an industrial to a post-industrial economy, distrusted the stable alignment that traditional working class areas had with labour
-social mobility: recently economy has decades have seen a process of embourgeoisement (people are becoming more middle class)
-centrist party policy: new parties have adopted centrist policies (new labour) + number of floating voters increasing
How does gender affect voting?
-the ‘female’ vote: both labour and conservatives have attempted to increase the number of female MPs (all women list)
-historically: conservatives were more likely to have female support (housewives) and Labour were more likely to enjoy support from men (more likely to be unionised) + recently has been as reverse in the trend
-gender switch caused by the fact that some are more likely to be employed
How does age affect voting behaviour?
-younger voters more likely to vote Labour (more likely to favour equal distribution of wealth and liberal policies)
-older voters: more likely to vote conservative (rich more sceptical in creating an equal society)
What percentage of people who voted labour were 18-24?
56%
21% were conservative
How does ethnicity affect voting behaviour?
-Ethnic minority voters (strongly aligned with labour: 82% of black voters voted Labour in 1997)
-labour has a history of supporting and advancing the rights of ethnic minorities (conservatives have long been associated with anti-immigrant sentiment)
How does region affect voting behaviour?
-North/South divide (labour support stronger in the north, conservative support stronger in the south)
-urban areas more likely to vote labour
-Wales: traditional labour stronghold (currently led by Vaughan Gething)
-Scotland: traditional labour stronghold, but has been dominated by the SNP since 2015
2019 General election:
-conservative win under Johnson
-age was the clearest factor with 56% of 18-24 voting Labour and 67% of 70+ voting Conservatives
-class realignment with C2DE now voting Conservatives
-education also strong with educated voting Labour
How many seats changed hands in 2015 compared to 2019?
2015: 11 seats changes
2019: 79 seats changes
2024:
What is the rational choice theory?
-emphasises the importance of regency factors
-argues that voters evaluate the options and make a conscious choice based on a range of factors
What is the spatial model?
-holds that voters will support the candidate who shares their position on divisive political questions
-consider issues, manifesto and policies
What is the valance model?
-assumes that voters base their vote on which party appear more capable
Who are positions voters?
-voters who decide how to vote by identifying which parties policies are most aligned with their views
How can the results of the 2019 election be explained with the spatial model?
-conservatives pledged to get Brexit done
-Labour promised a second referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU
-LibDems pledged to revoke Article 50
2015: Cameron v Miliband v Clegg
-Clegg was an electoral liability because of his support for raising tuition fess while in coalition with the conservatives
-Miliband was portrayed as dangerous, left-wing and geeky
2017: May v Corbyn v Farron
-May was criticised for her dull and uninspiring campaign (‘Maybot’ decided not to participate in a leadership debate)
-Corbyn credited with energising young voters with rallies and down to earth persona + outsider status may have cost Labour votes in centre ground
2019: Johnson v Corbyn v Swinson
-Johnson’s eccentric persona was credited with winning votes
-Corbyn’s reputation was damaged with accusations of being anti-British, anti-Semitic and sympathetic to IRA terrorists
How important is print media in determining voting behaviour?
-most newspapers (owned by wealthy individuals e.g Rupert Murdoch) backs the conservatives
-Labou only receives consistent support from the Guardian and Mirror
-recently newspaper readership has declined
1992: ‘It was the sun wot won it’
1997: ‘The sun backs Blair’
How does Radio media affect voting behaviour?
2017: Labour’s credibility over public finance was called into question when Dianne Abby gave a muddled interview on LBC radio
How does TV radio affect voting behaviour?
-news broadcasts and political party broadcast (can’t be bought)
-all news broadcasters are bound to law to be politically neutral
-BBC accused of having bias: 2019, Johnson avoided the scrutiny faced by every party in the Andrew Neil interviews
How do TV debates affect voting behaviour?
-media often declare winners and losers
How does the online media affect voting behaviour?
-parties use of social media unregulated
-conservatives + labour have party political broadcasts shared on social media
How do opinion polls affect voting behaviour?
-polls encourage the bandwagon effect (undecided voters vote for the party which is predicted to win)
What is the direct affect theory?
-the argument that the media directly determines voting behaviour
-1992: ‘it’s the sun wot won it’ + influence of Murdoch
What is the agenda-setting theory?
-media influence where issues become salient through their coverage
-media tends to focus on the economy
-there was a strong focus on Brexit
What is the framing theory?
-media presents leaders and issues in such a way as to influence voters choices
-2019: portrayal of Corbyn as anti-British and dangerously left-wing
What is the political context of the 1979 election?
-after winning narrowly in 1974 the Labour gov (led by Callaghan) lost its majority +vote was triggered by a vote of no confidence
-election took place in the aftermath of the winter of discontent
-Callaghan’s government accused of being hijacked by the far-left
-Thatchers conservatives were influenced by the ideology of the New Right
What was the political context of the 1997 election?
-conservatives had been in power for 18yrs
-Major conservatives had been rocked by a deep recession, bitter infighting regarding the EU (Maastricht Treaty) and sleaze scandals
-Blair recognised the traditional working class was in decline and adopted 3rd way Labour centrist politics that were designed to appeal to middle class voters
-Clause IV was amended
What was the political context for the 2019 election?
-Conservatives had been in power since 2010
-since 2016, there had been a deadlock over the issue of Brexit
-Johnson had become PM in July 2019 but was unable to build any unity within his own party, let alone parliament to get the deal passed
What issues were there in the 1979 election?
-economy was in a poor state, high inflation, growing unemployment and falling growth
-Thatcher was the first female leader of a major party
-key issue was the power of trade unions
-Winter of Discontent had caused serious disruptions
What were the issues in the 1997 election?
-economy had suffered a depression and recession
-public services appeared to be in decline
-conservatives were deeply divided regarding Britain’s membership of the EU
-sleaze scandals like the David Mellor affair
What issues were there in the 2019 election?
-salient issue was Brexit
-Brexit was divisive
-other issues like the economy, NHS and education
What were the policies and manifestos in the 1979 election?
Labour:
-promised to control union
-follow a more moderate economic policy
-rejected more radical socialist policies favoured by the left wing of the party
Conservatives:
-proposed a right to buy scheme for council tenants
-tax cuts
-curtail the power of trade unions
-boost the economy and employment by swapping to free market economics
What were the policies and manifestos in the 1997 election?
Conservatives:
-pledged to continue with its economic policies which were leading Britain to an economic recovery following the recession in the early 1990s
-opposed devolution (argued it would lead to the breakup of Britain)
Labour:
-proposed smaller class sizes
-fast track punishment for young offenders
-cut NHS waiting lists
-put 250,000 unemployed 25 year olds to work
-income tax freeze
-devolution
-promised fiscal responsibility
What were the policies and manifesto promises of the 2019 election?
Conservatives:
-get Brexit done
-voter for the conservatives was a vote for Boris Johnson Brexit deal
-pledged no rises to income tax
-50,000 new nurses
-Net Zero by 2050
Labour:
-renegotiated Brexit deal followed by a second referendum
-pledged massive investment in the public sector
-£10/hr minimum wage
-end charitable status of private schools
-nationalise key industries
LibDems:
-revoke Article 50
SNP:
-promised IndyRef2
What was the influence of the media in the 1979 election?
-first modern general election (mass media playing prominent role)
-media focuses heavily on the leaders creating a presidential campaign
-Sun switched support from Labour to Conservatives
-Sun accused Callaghan of being out of touch with it Crisis
What was the influence of the media in the 1997 election?
-following a meeting between Blair and Murdoch the Sun switched support to Labour Party (leading public opinion?)
-62% of the papers were Pro-Labour
-New Labour has a proactive approach to media ‘spin doctors’ managed interactions with the media
-Campaign was presidential (media attention focused heavily on Major and Blair)
-media coverage of ‘sleaze’ scandals tarnished the conservative reputation
What was the influence of the media in the 2019 election?
-print media took sides along typical lines
-both conservatives and labour spent money on youtube + facebook adverts
-Conservatives ‘love actually’ party election broadcast (on TV, youtube and shared widely on social media)
-higher volumes of engagement with content from Corbyn rather than Johnson
-conservatives and labour worked together to exclude other parties from a leaders debate on ITV
-Johnson decline to participate in other leaders debates’ (only major party to decline an invitation to be interviewed)
What were the results of the 1979 election?
-decisive victory of conservatives with a majority of 43
-C2 voters were won over by the conservatives policies of right to buy
-conservatives benefit from the mood change following the Winter of Discontent
-marked the beginning of the Thatcher-era and 18yrs Conservative rule
What were the results of the 1997 election?
-landslides victory for Labour
-campaign appeared to have little impact on results (seemed to have been determined by the recession for the early 1990s)
-Conservative gov blamed for recession
-labour stayed in power for the next 13yrs
What were the results of the 2019 election?
-decisive victory for conservatives (80 seat majoirty)
-Corbyn resigned in the wake of his death + replacement by Starmer brought Labour back to centre
-LibDems won 11 seats (Swinson lost her seat)
-SNP dominated in Scotland (won 48/59)
What was voting behaviour in the 1979 election?
-all areas were swung by conservative dominated by ABC1 vote
-conservatives won in every age group except 18-24
What was voting behaviour like in the 1997 election?
-labour made significant gains overall
-conservatives were wiped out in Scotland, Wales and London
-Labour dominated all age groups except 65+
-labour won the white vote and recieved support from BME voters
What was voting behaviour like in 2019?
-conservatives omitted rural England and has significant success in red wall seats
-conservatives dominated across all social classes
-men were slightly more likely to vote conservative than women
-at 39 people became more likely to vote conservative
-labour performed best amongst young and BAME voters
What was the impact on policy in the 1979 election?
-Thatchers majority allowed her to begin transforming Britain
-privatised public industries + reduced union strikes
-Thatchers policies became bolder when she won a landslide in 1983
What was the impact on the policy in 1997 election?
Blair’s huge majoirty called him to implement wide range of policies:
-devolution
-removal of hereditary peers in Lords
-passing of 1998 HRA
-Freedom of Information Act 2000
-introduction of minimum wage
-increase spending on schools, NHS and other public services
What was the impact on policy in the 2019 election?
-80 seat majority gave Johnson a mandate to proceed with Brexit deal
-UK left EU on 31st Jan 2020
-political landscape was changed in 2020 because of covid-19
