Elections and Direct Democracy Flashcards
Primaries
What are Primaries?
A secret ballot to select each party’s candidate. This is used in the vast majority of states, and can be open or closed
Primaries
What is an Open Primary, and an example of a state that uses the system?
Voters can choose on the day which party’s primary to vote in - this means they can pick which party’s nominee they want to have a say in, but they cannot vote for both parties. This style is used in Alabama
Primaries
What is a closed Primary, and give an example of a state using this?
Voters can participate only in the primary of the party with which they are registered in, meaning that if you do not have a party, you cannot vote for the candidates. This system is used in New York
Primaries
Runoff Primary
Runoff Primary - if no candidate gets a majority of the votes, a runoff is held to decide who should win.
Primaries
Name 3 advantages of using Primaries?
- They allow ordinary voters to choose their party’s candidates , ensuring that they are liked, and not chosen by ‘elites’ behind closed doors
- Allow ‘outsider’ candidates to stand a chance, both Trump and Obama had little experience, and both won the White House
- It ensures that the candidates are fit for their positions, as it can be a long, during process, including interviews, media presence, stamina and ability to understand policies
Primaries
Name 3 disadvantages of using Primaries?
- It adds to the overall cost and length of the campaigns, meaning people are less focused on the main elections
- This focuses the campaign on the candidate, not policy nor party
- Open primaries can encourage opposition voters to vote for a ‘weal’ candidate
- Voter fatigue
Caucuses
What are Caucuses?
An informal meeting of the party leaders, and followers, who select the nominees for the National Nominating Convention.
The voting is open and not secret, but can last for hours. There are less states using this, and typically is used in rural, less populated areas
Caucuses
Which state holds the first caucus, and is famous for their robust nature of continuing it on?
and an example
Iowa - the Republican Caucus was held on the 15th of January 2024, in which Trump won the Republican one, with 51% of the vote
Caucuses
Name 3 advantages of a Caucus?
- Enables more discussion and debate among party activists, based on strength of the candidates
- No opportunity for ‘raiding’ from the opposition to try and get weak party candidates in
- Less likely to see voters suffer from voter fatigue
Caucuses
Name 3 disadvantages of a Caucus?
- The length and timing often discourages voters from participating, as it often is during work time, meaning the majority of workers fail to get time off
- No secret ballot
- Often attracts party activists and more ideological set voters
What is the National Nominating Convention?
A convention held every 4 years in which the parties formally nominate the party candidate, and is often names a ‘coronation’. These often have balloons, celebrities, and are televised to show off the winner.
Where are the party’s NNC usually held?
In swing states - for example the 2020 Republican convention was held in North Carolina, and the 2024 Democrat convention is to be held in Illinois
What usually occurs after the NNC to the candidates?
Usually receive a short-term boost in poll rating. In 2016, both Trump and Clinton received a +4 boost, but in 2020, neither Trump nor Biden got the boost
Electoral college
What does the Electoral College do?
Used the elect the president, the EC are voted for by the public, who then vote for the president, to represent their area.
There are 538 voters, selected by each state and Washington DC.
The number is determined by the size of each states congressional delegation (HOR and Senate combined). - Montana only gets 3, along with a handful of states, while California gets 54
Electoral college
List 5 arguments for the ECV?
- Normally the popular vote, reflects the ECV vote, as seen in 2012 and 2016
- Reflects the federal nature of the US - if it was a straight FPTP, candidates would only focus on areas highly populated
- Faithless electors have never affected the final decision (there were 0 faithless electors in 2020)
- It produces a clear winner, as they cannot be shared out proportionally
- Often calls for reforms come from ‘bad losers’, and ‘rogue results’, as seen with Trump in 2020
Electoral college
List 5 arguments against the ECV?
- Winners of the popular vote do not always win the presidency, as seen in 2016 with Trump and Clinton
- Smaller states are over represented, with Wyoming having 1 EV for every 195,000 people, while California having 1 EV for every 712,000 people
- Candidates focus their attention on the ‘swing states’ as seen with the place of the NNC occurring, or Trump who visited 6 swing states 133 times in 100 days during the 2016 election
- Faithless electors are unfair and do not reflect the public, in 2016, there were a record 7
- Public opinion show the the majority of Americans want a direct popular vote, as seen in 2021 with 55%-43%
- (Bonus) It discriminates against 3rd party candidates, making it impossible to win, classing it as ‘wasted vote’ syndrome
Electoral college
Distorted elections
3 examples
- 1980 Reagan won 50% of the vote but got 90% of ECV
- 2000 Al Gore recived 500,000 more votes but still lost the electorla college
- 2016 Clinton got 3 mill more votes than Trump but lost the ECV
Electoral college
Changes to the Electoral college
2
1804 - Amendment 12 – “Electing the President and Vice President” on a joint ticket
1961 - Constitutional Amendments – Amendment 23 – “Extending the Vote to the District of Columbia” so that it may participate in presidential elections.
Electoral college
Why doesnt the ECV change ?
4
- requires a constitutional amendments which is very difficult (Two-thirds of both houses of Congress have to vote to introduce an amendment. Amendments ratification of ¾ of states.)
- smaller states woul;d never agree to a change to a sytem which gives them a significant say in elections
- the sytem often favours the winner and the winner would therfore not remove the sytem that got then there
- there is no consensus on what would replace the ECV
How many Rogue Electors were there in 2016?
7
Three suggestions for EC reform?
3
DIRECT ELECTION
President elected by winning the popular vote, would take a constitutional amendment and would mean that there would be multiple candidates that would win less than 50% of the vote
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SYSTEM
Awarding one ECV to a candidate for each congressional district that they win and 2 for the candidate who is the state wide winner, would not require an amendment but still doesn’t help third parties
PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM
Allocates ECV in each state proportional to the popular vote in that state, this would render the electors unnecessary, make it fairer for third national parties.
Which two states have a Congressional District system?
Maine, Nebraska
Super delegates
People who are appointed automatically as uncommitted delegates to the DNPC by virtue of being an elected politician or senior party official
Mid-term elections
Pros
3
- power doesnt get stale and is always changing
- keeps congress(wo)men engaged with their electorate
- voters can hold them to account
Mid-term elections
Cons
- incumbent advantage can block the progression of ‘fresh blood’ - Reelection rate of both house and the senate is over 90% on average
- very costly
- all potential bills are wiped clean
Factors determining electoral outcomes
4
money, media, issues, leadership
Factors determining electoral outcomes
Money
- Billions of dollars are spent on and by candidates at every election eg the 2020 election totaled $14.4 billion, more than doubling the total cost of the record-breaking 2016
- Fundraising, often known as building a ‘war chest’, is considered vital to success eg jill stien could notv afford to run in 2020 for the green party
- It is spent on consultants, campaign managers, social media and TV ads eg 2020 - 56% of expeditures by all candidates were spent on media
Factors determining electoral outcomes
Media
- Televised debates are a longstanding tradition (first was 1960 between Kennedy and Nixon);
- Trump generally agreed to be weaker performer in 2016 - lack of grasp of policy details, colloquialisms, idiosyncrasies;
- Serious errors of judgement can lead to a campaign’s collapse - Ron Desantis in the 2024 Republican primary debate;
- Media biases - e.g. Fox News and the Republicans, Democrats and MSNBC.
Factors determining electoral outcomes
Issues
- Trump focussed his campaign on issues such as immigration, jobs, manufacturing and Islamist terror in 2016;
- Biden focussed on the chaos of Trumps policies and the COVID response
- Clinton countered by emphasising a nuanced approach, continuing Obama’s policies and supporting liberal stances on social issues such as abortion
- HOWEVER - they need to be communicated effectively and convincingly, hence the need for money and media.
- 1992 - Bill Clinton’s campaign manager said on Clinton’s Victory - “”It’s the economy, stupid”
Factors determining electoral outcomes
Leadership
- Candidates need to be perceived as commanding, conveying vision, but also empathy in equal measure
- incumbency - They have greater name recognition and usually a higher media profile; They already have an established campaign and fundraising organisation; They can boast of past achievements
Why do candidates need money?
- Front-loaded primary season
- Can’t rely on momentum after New Hampshire
- Only one month between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday 2008 – candidates raised $1m a day at this time
- Front loading not such a problem 2016 but size of the field was - $1bn by end of April
- Need to charter planes and pay a large staff to campaign simultaneously in key primary states
- TV companies charge more for advertising during primary season
Matching funds
Public money grants to fund election campaigns administered by the FEC. Used between 1976 and 2008.
Direct Democracy
Where is direct democracy used in the US?
In the states, not at a federal level
Direct Democracy
recall election
An electoral device by which voters in a state can remove an elected official from office before their term has expired
eg Gavin Newsom - California Governor who faced recall election in 2021
Direct Democracy
Referendums
- Can occur when state legislature passes law but is then required to submit for direct approval from voters
- Often refer state constitutional amendments to voters
- Eg. Alabama 2018, where 78% of voters supported amendment to allow Ten Commandments to be displayed in state courthouses
- Around half of states allow groups who collect enough sigs to demand veto to existing law
Direct Democrcay
Ballot Initiatives (Propositions)
An electoral device by which citizens of a state can place proposed laws - and in some states, proposed constitutional amendments - on the state ballot
- Most widely used form
- Laws/measures proposed by voters, that with enough sigs, are placed on ballot
- Weed legalisation, same-sex marriage
Direct Democracy
Arguments for why Direct democracy works well in the USA
- Allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws - ‘Purer’ form of democracy
- Allows variations in laws between different types of states, that reflect different political priorities and complexions
- Improves the accountability of state-level officials between elections, especially where promises have been broken or their actions have produced strong opposition.
- Adds additional check/balance to state exec + legislatures
- Increases opportunities for political participation - also provides additional opportunities for pressure groups - eg. NRA in 2014 publicly backing measure in Alabama to strengthen 2nd Amendment
Direct Democracy
Arguments for why Direct Democracy does not work well in the USA
- Can lead to tyranny of the majority - such as if driving tests were required to be in English
- Can lead to inconsistencies and variation in laws between states - such as same-sex marriage pre-Obergefell verdict
- Often a political tactic used by ‘sore losers’, or those unhappy with specifics - undermines representative govt
- Many would argue already enough checks/balances, as governors have vetoes - simply adds another opportunity for stalemate/stalling
- Can limit ability of state govts to do their job properly
- Promotes ‘democratic overload’ - makes ballots long and complicated, decreasing participation
