Elections Flashcards
Stages of a presidential election
Invisible primary
Primaries and caucuses
Choosing vice presidential candidate
National party convention
General election campaign
Election Day
Requirements for a presidential candidate
(Constitutional requirements in brackets)
(Natural-born American citizen)
(At least 35 years old)
Political experience - 19/22 candidates in 2016 has been either a senator or a state governor
Major party endorsement
Personal characteristics
Ability to fundraise - Hillary - $700 million
Strong oratory + media capability
Organisation
Relevant policies
The invisible primary
Increasing name recognition
Fundraising- (2016 - Ben Carson raised $58 million, but did not win a single primary)
Intra-party TV debates - (2011 - Rick Perry)
Front-runners folding - (Howard Dean 2004 / Rudy Guiliani and Clinton 2008)
Function of primaries and caucuses
Candidates nominated to represent the parties
Delegates chosen to attend national party conventions
Types of primary
Closed primary - only registered party members can vote
Open primary - anyone can vote
Factors affecting turnout in primaries
Demography
Type of primary
How competitive the nomination race is (2008 vs 2012)
Whether the nomination has been decided or not - 42 states decided before April in 2008, only 11 in 1980
2016 North Carolina Republican primary
> 1/2 of voters had a college degree
1/3 of voters earned more than $100,000 a year
3/4 of voters 45 or older
Only 6% aged 24 or younger
37% described themselves as being ‘very conservative’
Strengths of nomination process
Almost anyone can put themselves forward as a candidate
Increased choice for the electorate
A gruelling race - (eg. Paul Tsongas seen to have a lighter schedule than his rivals (cancer) - questions over his physical resilience)
Weaknesses of nomination process
Voter apathy (turnout between 17-20%)
Voters unrepresentative of the voting population
Process is too long
Process is too expensive
Process is too dominated by the media - TV debates + newspaper coverage
Role of super-delegates
Strategies for choosing vice presidential candidates
Balanced ticket - (young Obama choosing old Biden)
Potential in government - (Dick Cheney)
Party unity - (Reagan choosing George H.W. Bush)
Functions of the national party conventions
Choosing the party’s presidential and vice presidential candidate
Deciding the party platform
Promoting party unity
Enthusing voters, both fervent and undecided
Soft money
Money donated to political parties instead of to candidates in order to avoid campaign finance limitations
Campaign finance legislation and judicial rulings
Federal Election Campaign Act 1974 (motivated by Watergate) - Limited contributions that individuals, unions and corporations could give, reducing candidates’ reliance on a few, very wealthy donors
Weakened by: Buckley v Valeo 1976 - Supreme Court ruled that limitations on what individuals could spend infringed First Amendment rights, and were therefore unconstitutional
Matching funds
Federal money administered by the Federal Election Commission, equal to that which the candidate fundraised, up to a set limit.
Obama 2008 - Matthew Barzun
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (2002)
Banned parties from raising or spending soft money
McCain - Feingold
PACs
Political committees that raise limited amounts of money and spends these contributions on elections.
Which Supreme Court decision empowered PACs?
Citizens United v FEC (2010)
Granted corporate and labour organisations the same rights of political free speech as individuals, thereby giving such groups the right of unlimited political expenditure.
Super PACs
A political committee that makes independent expenditures, but does not make contributions to candidates.
Fundraising in the 2016 Election
Clinton
71% individual funded (3/4 from big donors)
28% PAC / Super PAC funded
Trump
42% individual funded (2/3 from small donors)
35% PAC / Super PAC funded
23% self funded
What is campaign money spent on?
Organisation - 489 v 178 field offices
Media - Trump relied more on free media coverage as he raised less money than Clinton
$4.4 billion spent in the 2016 election
Campaigning - Polling
Strengths of the Electoral College
Preserves the voice of the small-population states
Winning candidate likely to win majority of support from the electorate - 2/3 of the time since 1864
Weaknesses of the Electoral College
Over-represents small states - (California 1 per 713k vs Wyoming 195k)
Winner-take-all system distorts the result - (1996- 49% of popular vote = 70% of electoral college votes for Clinton)
Unfair on third parties - concentrated support requrires (eg. Ross Perot won 18.9% of the vote in 1992)
Rogue electors - Occured in 7/13 elections since 1968 (167 in total) - very few with 30k in total
No requirement to win the popular vote - 91% of the time though
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact - 14 states, 189/270 electoral college votes
Wasted votes- possible to win with only 22% of the vote
Election focused on purple states (2012 - only 12 states visitied by major candidates) - affects policy - Florida/age/medicare
Trends in congressional elections
Strong support for incumbents - 97.8% in the House in 2000
Limited coattails effect - 16/21 winning Republican senators in 2016 fared better than Trump
Decline of split-ticket voting
Fewer competitive districts - 31 in 2016 (1/14)
President’s party tends to lose seats in the midterm congressional elections
Forms of direct democracy
Initiative / proposition - 2016 marijuana California
Referendum - Changes to the state constitution
Recall election - Scott Walker - Wisconsin 2012
