Elections Flashcards
What are the implications of the staggered character of us elections? i.e. elections every two years
Frequent nature of house elections leads to:
-‘permanent campaigning’
-pork barrel politics
-weak party discipline
(this is why the tax bill passed, Billionaires are happy)
Longer terms of senators leads to :
- more deliberative character
- greater continuity of membership
-as president cannot decide elections (unlike UK, fixed parliament act kind of overturned by May) this may deny the president an electoral advantage
Explain caucuses
method of selection a presidential candidate, was very prominent before 1968 (this gave the party a lot of power as caucuses are easily controlled)
party supporters are allowed to vote
What was the turnout in Kansas in 200 for their caucus, why does this show they are not significant?
why else are caucuses not significant?
turnout was less than 1000
this shows they are not very significant
they are also only worth very few delegates compared to primary states, you can’t win the nomination of caucuses alone
also caucuses being small states have unrepresentative populations so they aren’t as significant (Iowa, Kansas, Alaska) , and only highly aligned and ideologically extreme voters turn out
What is the difference between the Democrat way of doing caucuses and the Republican way?
Dems discuss and then count
(Dems in Iowa, 15% to qualify for delegates to the NNC)
Rs debate and then vote
Why are caucuses significant?
Why is the Iowa caucus particularly significant?
Caucuses pick ideologically extreme candidates which gives them a shot at running
Iowa is the first caucus
In Iowa in 2016 Ted Cruz won for the Rs
In Iowa in 2012 Rick Santorum won for the Rs
In Iowa in 2008 Obama won for the Ds
All EXTREMELY IDEOLOGICAL CANDIDATES
What strategy are the democrats going for in 2018?
running in or contesting all 435 seats
Why are Joe Lieberman, Dick Lugar and Lisa Murkowski all significant?
incumbents who lost their primaries (a rare thing indeed)
However, Lieberman won as an independent and Murkowski won as a write-in candidate
Lugar lost his Indiana senate seat in 2012
What is the coat tails effect?
Give an example
When a popular candidate at the top of the ticket (president or gubernatorial) lifts the popularity of the other candidates for their party. This can be useful for a President as if members of Congress believe they were elected with help from the President they are more likely to support him
e.g. Reagan, the Republicans gained 33 seats in the House and 12 in the Senate in 1980
What is the reverse coat tails effect?
Give an example
When a candidate at the top of the ballot causes dislike and loss of seats for other candidates of their party in that election
e.g. Trump, The Democrats gained 2 Senate seats and 6 House seats.
Bill Clinton, lost 9 house seats 1992
GWB lost 4 Senate seats in 2000
Why is the coat tails effect so important?
If there are no coat tails to hang on to there may be little incentive to turn out to vote
What is split ticket voting? when has this been encouraged ?
When a voter votes for two parties, for different offices, at the same election
in 1996 Republican candidate Bob Dole looked set to lose so the Rs encouraged voters to vote for republican senators
What were levels of STV like in 2012?
6 states were split ticket president and senate
notably West Virginia but this was due to moderate Manchin. Although only 35% voted Obama, 65% voted to relect Joe Manchin (D)
What is incumbency liken the USA?
very high rates of incumbency due to gerrymandering, pork, ect. Gerrymandering can’t be done in the Senate
What do Americans think of high incumbency and what do they think of their own candidates?
don’t like high incumbency
do like their own representatives
Why are so few seats competitive? what effect does this have on congress and partisanship
gerrymandering
discouraged bipartisanship and you have to be extreme to win in gerrymandered seats. Intra-party threat is the risk. No reason to be bi-partisan
Give two examples of local issues in congressional elections?
border and immigration- important to Florida, New Mexico
farm subsidies- important to Iowa and Kansas
How is the record of incumbent members measured?
Who got outed due to never turning up?
How often they vote and what they vote on
Senator Huddleston (advert with a bloodhound looking for him in DC but he was nowhere to be found) Mitch McConnell took his seat
Huddleston had missed a quarter of all role call votes that year in the Senate
Why did Senator Elizabeth Dole lose her seat?
An advert came out painting her as old, ineffective and voted with Bush (he is very unpopular)
clever ad, obliquely bought up issue of her age (72)
Why is John Barrow significant?
A southern democrat who kept his seat due to advertising in 2012 (Tv ad ‘Nobody’), but lost 2014.
Barrow re-elected on 54% of the vote and 7 percentage points
Showed his with a handgun his grandfather used to prevent a lynching (pro African American) and also his NRA endorsement (appealed to southern white people)
What are the two theories as to why the President’s party tend to lose midterms?
1) SURGE AND DECLINE
reverse coat tails effect, less people turnout
-Obama lost the House in 2010, people weren’t bothered to turn up, failed to deliver on promises to turn around the American economy and many were opposed to his healthcare reforms
2) REFERENDUM ON THE PRESIDENT
- GWB was v popular after 9/11, in 2002 the Republicans increased their majorities in both Houses.
How did the Tea Party affect the 2010 midterms?
They helped dems win seats as if the GOP candidate was Tea Party, often weak democrat candidates could win against them.
Which groups did Democrats lose voters in in 2010?
white (-6%), men(-7%), woman(-8%), 18-29 year olds(-9%), catholics(-10%), independents(-14%)
shows that arguably independents make the difference
When are elections held?
the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in years divisible by 4
What are mid term elections?
elections for the House and 1/3 of the Senate midway between the President’s four years
What are congressional elections?
Elections held every two years
What is the locality rule?
a state rule that requires a representatives not only to live in the state but in the congressional district they represent
What is the average number of election defeats for house candidates per election cycle?
5 or 6, this is not very high at all, around 400 defend seat every two years
In 2012 what happened to the 13 house candidate incumbents who lost primaries?
8 lost to other incumbents after redistricting
of the 5 who lost to challengers, one had been in controversy for a while and two were in newly gerrymandered districts
What happened to Split Ticket voting in 2016?
No State voted differently for President and Senate
Split Ticket voting in decline, it was popular in the 80’s
What were re-election rates like in the four elections 1998-2004?
re-election rates in the house over 95%
What were re-election rates like 2006-2012?
lower
145 defeats in those 4 elections as opposed to 41 in the previous 4
How was the re-election rate in the Senate 2008-2012?
10 incumbents defeated in those three cycles
high incumbency rates
How do you define a competitive seat generally?
one that was won by and incumbent by less than 10 percentage point
however, Dems winning Pennsylvania 18th (Connor Lamb) and Alabama Senate Seat shows more and more seats competitive in 2018, Dems are running a 435 seat strategy
What stats shows the reduction in competitive seats?
1992 111 close races
2004 only 31 close races
How many competitive house elections in 2012?
only 65
How did the Republicans attempt to ‘nationalise the 1994 midterms?’
a ten-point policy document, the ‘Contract with America’
What was special about the 2002 midterms?
It was the only midterm election in 50 years where the President’s party gained seats in both houses
How did the Democrats do in 2010?
lost 63 House seats, lose 6 Senate seats
What is an invisible primary?
The 3-4 years preceding an election year, Candidates test the water and seek to establish themselves in public opinion polls and state ‘straw polls’, winning name recognition as well as visiting key primary states (such as New Hampshire and Iowa), making an unofficial campaign website and appearing coverage on TV talk shows. Candidates must shows they have popularity and the ability to show sufficient financial resources to wage an effective, long-term campaign.
Who is the invisible primary for 2020?
Corey Booker Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Oprah Seth Moulton Jason Kander Kanye West
Do the party hold a primary if there is an incumbent President?
No they don’t tend to
if they do the President tends to lose as the party has no faith if they stand another candidate
GHWB was challenged by Pat Buchanan
Carter was challenged by Ted Kennedy
Ford was challenged by Reagan
Is the invisible primary important?
It is important to establish a leading position in the election campaign at the end of the invisible primary (candidates usually declare 18 months ahead of the election). Those who end the invisible primary on top often secure the nomination, those who do badly may drop out and not declare.
However, invisible primaries may also mean nothing. It is all about building the biggest financial resources (War Chests), not because it is important to have this money but to intimidate other candidates, however, this doesn’t always lead on to success in elections. Also the people predicted don’t always win (Trump defied all thought and belief, in the invisible primary he was a no-hoper for President)
what happened to Rick Perry due to his invisible primary?
lost his primary due to a blunder in the invisible primary in 2011
What is a primary? how did they improve the democratic process? Why else are primaries good?
an election generally open to members of the public who have registered as supporters of that party, to select that party’s candidate. Caucuses are held for the same purpose but are meetings allowing discussion and debate not just a simple election. Primaries were introduced as democratic reform as they weakened the power of the ‘machine politicians’ who had previously controlled the nominating process.
primaries also pick more electable candidates.
What do the results of primaries and caucuses determine?
the delegates who attend their national conventions. These are held during the summer months and make the final formal decision on the nominee. Although this is always a foregone conclusion.
What do candidates that are defeated in the primaries usually do?
put their weight behind the victorious nominee
Bernie Sanders backed Hillary after he was defeated
Which state has the first caucus and which has the first primary?
New Hampshire- primary
Iowa- caucus
How did the 1968 election make primaries the more common system?
in 1968 LBJ was not popular does not seek re-election
RFK is the front runner for candidacy but gets shot!
former VP Hubert Humphrey stands- he doesn’t win a single primary- imposed by party leaders
3rd party candidate and racist George Wallace stands and gets 13 million southern votes
Nixon wins
primaries were recommended as a result of this failure and 35 states had primaries from 1972
How much money did Hillary Clinton and Obama spend on their primaries in 2008?
£250 million each
What happened to Rick Santorum in the primaries in 2012?
nearly became republican candidate
has a ‘google problem’
wins Iowa but Iowa unrepresentative
How do primaries and caucuses increase political participation?
broaden the franchise
test the qualities of rival candidates
subject candidates to sustained scrutiny
build interest for the coming contest between the parties
What criticisms are there of primaries?
- first and significant caucus and primary is Iowa and New Hampshire, these states play a pivotal role. they are both rural and white so therefore the process may be unrepresentative.
- some states have open primaries where everyone is allowed to vote, whether you are registered to the party or not. This may encourage ‘wrecking tactics’ where supporters of another party vote in the primary and deliberately back a weak candidate.
- turnout levels are low, only strong party identifiers vote
- candidates with extensive financial resources are at an advantage, primaries happen in a quick space of time (although parties are getting better at controlling and stopping this), this gives advantage to candidates who can campaigning many states at a time.
- lack of peer review. In primaries candidates are judged by the electorate rather than those such as Governors, members of Congress and party officials who would be best qualified to assess candidates. This has arguably lowered the calibre of US presidents.
Give an example of wrecking tactics in open primaries?
In the Wisconsin open primaries in 2012 Democrats voted Rick Santorum as a wrecking tactic.
How has lack of peer review in the primary process been demonstrated in an election?
1976 Carter successful in Democrat primaries
Carter White House 1977-81 had many failings.
Why is the New Hampshire primary so important?
first primary- gives an indication of public opinion
If you do badly in New Hampshire, your financial status could be badly affected. Backers may pull out as they do not want to be seen to back a non-starter.
Doing badly in New Hampshire can label you a failure from the beginning, this is v bad in a campaign.
New Hampshire has in it’s constitution that its primary must be one week before any other. In 2008 the primary was held on the 8th of January when the election takes place in November. (however this was pushed back in 2016)
Jeb Bush dropped out of running after New Hampshire in 2016
Why is ‘super Tuesday’ important?
21 states declare their nomination on the second tuesday in March
most these 21 states are southern so traditionally this is a good time for southern candidates, in 1992 Bill Clinton won basically every nomination available on this day.
Why do states try to ‘front load’ the primaries? What do the National Committees of the party do about this?
Super Tuesday has encouraged other states to put their primaries earlier so they still figure in the contest. Candidates tend to stop campaigning when they reach the required amount of delegates and the press stop paying attention, explaining why front loading happens.
In 2008 the Democrats banned the delegates from Michigan and Florida attending the National Convention as the states had moved their primaries too early in the process.
Why is winning California important?
The state sends 20% of all delegates to both parties national conventions.
in 2008 ‘Super Tuesday’ became ‘Super Duper Tuesday’ as California joined and the primaries and caucuses were held on the 5th Feb. This was not seen as a success and in 2012 and 2016, Super Tuesday only included 10 primaries and caucuses accounting for 18% of Republican delegates.
How was the parties work to stop front loading shown in 2016?
Super Tuesday was held on the 1st March
2nd Super Tuesday on 15th March where 5 states had primaries
California’s primary was not until 5th June (5 other states had primaries and caucuses on this day too) This is when Clinton won the nomination
How does the fact that from January to April there is no fundraising time and fundraising has to be done before the primaries affect the primary process?
Poorer candidates (e.g. Rick Santorum 2012) spend a lot of time in Iowa prior to the caucus to hopefully build momentum for their campaign. Santorum won Iowa and arguably got some momentum as he went on to win another 10 states (although could be accounted for by wrecking tactics) before suspending his campaign.
Better known candidates have more leeway as they will be better financed.
However, Rudy Giuliani in 2008 was so well known he did not even bother campaigning in Iowa or New Hampshire as they account for very few delegates. This however led to him having little momentum and was forced to withdraw.
How did Super PACs dominate the 2012 election?
although candidates have to adhere to the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974, PACs are not financially regulated and can easily run negative ads.
In 2012 the ‘Winning Our Future’ Super PAC adverts that attacked Mitt Romney contributed to Newt Gingrich winning early primaries. This meant it took Romney a long time to win the needed number of delegates.
How did Mitt Romney undermine the ‘style over substance’ argument for primaries?
Wooden Romney had little style and his opponents lacked substance.
Rick Perry dropped out after forgetting the three federal departments he would abolish
Rick Santorum had a google problem
How did Donald Trump get a step ahead of his opposition in the primaries? Who had more money than him?
He used his personal wealth and unorthodox campaigning to get more media coverage than all other candidates combined.
Jeb Bush had 100 million dollars in his Right to Rise Super PAC and a further 30 million in direct fundraising (more than any other candidate. However, he failed to win a single primary and had to drop out.
Why do President who look for re-election but are challenged in the primaries usually lose the election itself`? give examples of when this happened
They look rubbish
Ford (1976) Carter (1980) Bush (1992)
How did Obama not being challenged in the 2012 primaries advantage him in the real election?
Other Republican candidates (particularly Newt Gingrich) had run negative campaigns against Romney so he was stained.
Romney had been forced to spend huge sums and dedicate the first five months of 2012 fending off attacks from other Republicans. Obama didn’t have this problem.
Explain how the Democrat contest in 2016 was a ‘clean race’?
Sanders attacked Clinton on policy instead of personal attacks such as those Trump made.
Sander’s left wing campaign forced Clinton to adopt left wing policies such as raising the minim wage to 12 dollars an hour.
Clinton won 4 million more votes than Sanders and significant support from minorities.
Which state has a single legislature and no parties?
Nebraska
