Economy- planning, mobilization of resources, growth, development and employment Flashcards
KABIL?
- A joint venture company, Khanij Bidesh India Ltd. (KABIL), to be set up with the participation of three Central Public Sector Enterprises namely NALCO, HCL and Mineral Exploration Company Ltd. (MECL)
- obj: ensure a consistent supply of critical and strategic minerals to Indian domestic market.
- KABIL would carry out identification, acquisition, exploration, development, mining and processing of strategic minerals overseas for commercial use and meeting country’s requirement of these minerals.
- The company will help in building partnerships with other mineral rich countries like Australia and those in Africa and South America, where Indian expertise in exploration and mineral processing will be mutually beneficial
Samarth?
launched by Flipkart
will support artisans, weavers and handicraft maker by on-boarding them and helping them in process of selling on internet.
Negative rate policy?
- Under a negative rate policy, financial institutions are required to pay interest for parking excess reserves with the central bank.
- That way, central banks penalise financial institutions for holding on to cash in hope of prompting them to boost lending.
- Pros:
- Lowers borrowing costs.
- Help weaken a country’s currency rate by making it a less attractive investment than that of other currencies.
- A weaker currency gives a country’s export a competitive advantage and boosts inflation by pushing up import costs.
- Cons:
- Negative rates put downward pressure on the entire yield curve.
- Narrow the margin financial institutions earn from lending.
- If prolonged ultra-low rates hurt the health of financial institutions too much, they could hold off on lending and damage the economy.
- There are also limits to how deep central banks can push rates into negative territory – depositors can avoid being charged negative rates on their bank deposits by choosing to hold physical cash instead.
- To battle the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, many central banks cut interest rates near zero. With little room to cut rates further, some major central banks have resorted to unconventional policy measures, including a negative rate policy.The euro area, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Japan have allowed rates to fall slightly below zero.
Fintech industry?
- According to NITI Aayog, India is one of the fastest growing fintech markets globally, and industry research has projected that $1 trillion, or 60% of retail and SME (small and medium sized enterprises) credit, will be digitally disbursed by 2029.
- The Indian fintech ecosystem is the third largest in the world, attracting nearly $6 billion in investments since 2014. Fintech or financial technology companies use technology to provide financial services such as payments, peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding, among others.
inverted yield curve?
- The yield curve is a graph showing the relationship between interest rates earned on lending money for different durations.
- Normally, someone who lent to the government or a corporation for one year (by buying a one-year government or corporate bond) would expect to get a lower interest rate than someone who lent for five or ten years, making the yield curve upward-sloping.
- In the US in recent days the ten-year bond rate has fallen to the point at which the ten-year rate is below the two-year rate – so the yield curve is inverted.
- inverted yield curve denotes a recession in near future
- When investors feel buoyant about the economy they pull the money out from long-term bonds and put it in short-term riskier assets such as stock markets. In the bond market, the prices of long-term bonds fall, and their yield (effective interest rate) rises. Thus higher yield for longer term bonds indicates trust in the pvt economy
- However, when investors suspect that the economy is heading for trouble, they pull out money from short-term risky assets (such as stock markets) and put them in long-term bonds. This causes the prices of the long-term bonds to rise and their yields to fall.
global recession?
- In an economy, a recession happens when output declines for two successive quarters (that is, six months).
- However, for a global recession, institutions such as the International Monetary Fund tend to look at more than just a weakness in the economic growth rate; instead, they look at a widespread impact in terms of employment or demand for oil, etc.
- The long-term global growth average is 3.5%. The recession threshold is 2.5%.
Panglossian way of life?
A Panglossian way of life is one of extreme optimism, in which you are convinced whatever happens is for the best, and hence make no effort to change it.
Why in News? Mentioned by RBI governor in his recent speech.
Competition Law Review Committee recommendations?
- Introduction of a ‘Green Channel’ for combination notifications to enable fast-paced regulatory approvals for vast majority of mergers and acquisitions that may have no major concerns regarding appreciable adverse effects on competition. Combinations arising out of the insolvency resolution process under IBC will also be eligible for “Green Channel” approvals.
- Introducing a dedicated bench in NCLATfor hearing appeals under the Competition Act.
- Introduction of express provisions to identify ‘hub and spoke’ agreements as well as agreements that do not fit within typical horizontal or vertical anti-competitive structures to cover agreements related to business structures and models synonymous with new age markets.
- Additional enforcement mechanism of ‘Settlement & Commitments” in the interests of speedier resolution of cases of anti-competitive conduct.
- Enabling provisions to prescribe necessary thresholds, inter alia, deal-value threshold for merger notifications.
- CCI to issue guidelines on imposition of penaltyto ensure more transparency and faster decision making which will encourage compliance by businesses.
- Strengthening the governance structure of CCI with the introduction of a Governing Board to oversee advocacy and quasi-legislative functions, leaving adjudicatory functions to the Whole-time Members.
- Merging DG’s Office with CCI as an ‘Investigation Division’ as it aids CCI in discharging an inquisitorial rather than adversarial mandate. However, functional autonomy must be protected.
- Opening of CCI offices at regional levelto carry out non-adjudicatory functions such as research, advocacy etc. and interaction with State Governments and State regulators.
Debenture Redemption Reserve (DRR)?
- It is a provision stating that any Indian corporation that issues debentures must create a debenture redemption service in an effort to protect investors from the possibility of a company defaulting.
- This provision was tacked onto the Indian Companies Act of 1956, in an amendment introduced in the year 2000.
- Why in News? Government removes Debenture Redemption Reserve requirement for Listed Companies, NBFCs and HFCs by amending the Companies (Share Capital & Debentures) Rules.
- Significance: The measure has been taken by the Government with a view to reducing the cost of the capital raised by companies through issue of debentures and is expected to significantly deepen the Bond Market.
link between bond yields and interest rates?
- usually this bond is the G-Secs
- yield = coupon rate/ selling price of the bond
- as demand of G-secs increase, its selling price increases ad yield decreases and vice-versa
- thus, increasing yield means decreasing demand for G-secs. But this is actually good. Usually falling demand for G-secs mean that investors are more interested in investing in pvt ventures through stock market. So, increasing yield indicates a booming economy.
- also, increasing yield indicates booming economy means potential rise of inflation and thus central banks usually increase the interest rates.
can the growth rate of GDP and GVA differ?
YES
during the year, it is GVA data that is made available first — not the GDP. The GDP is arrived at by taking the GVA number, adding all the taxes earned by the government and subtracting all the subsidies provided by the government.
for the same level of GVA in an economy, the GDP could alter just because the government earned more money from its taxes or spent more on subsidies.
share of cess and surcharge in the gross tax revenue (GTR) of the Centre?
almost doubled to 19.9% in 2020-21 from 10.4% in 2011-12, leading to the 15th Finance Commission (FC) recommending a higher grant-in-aid and lower tax devolution to the States
T/F:
- Unlike a cess, which is meant to raise revenue for a temporary need, surcharge is usually permanent in nature.
- Collections from surcharge flow into the Consolidated Fund of India.
- T
- T
New Umbrella Entities (NUEs)?
- As envisaged by the RBI, an NUE will be a non-profit entity that will set-up, manage and operate new payment systems, especially in the retail space such as ATMs, white-label PoS; Aadhaar-based payments and remittance services. Additionally, they will develop new payment methods, standards and technologies as well as operate clearing and settlement systems.
who can set up NUEs:
- Only those entities that are owned and controlled by Indian citizens with at least three years of experience in the payments segment can become promoters of NUEs.
- foreign investment is allowed in NUEs. eg. Reliance Industries, along with Facebook and Google — which have invested in Jio Platforms — are planning to apply as a consortium.
Need:
- Currently, the umbrella entity for providing retail payments system is NPCI, which is a non-profit entity, owned by banks. NPCI operates settlement systems such as UPI, AEPS, RuPay, Fastag, etc. Players in the payments space have indicated the various pitfalls of NPCI being the only entity managing all of retail payments systems in India. RBI aims to expand the competitive landscape in this area.
“INdia’s vulnerabilities have been laid bare by the pandemic”?
- Acc to a WB report, while India’s stock markets rose during the pandemic and the very rich became even richer, the number of people with <2$ a day is estimated to have increased by 75 million. This accounts for nearly 60% of the global increase in poverty
- India ranks a low 139th (/149) in World Happiness index; India ranked 94 among 107 countries in the Global Hunger Index 2020 and is in the ‘serious’ hunger category; India ranks 76th out of 82 economies in social mobility index
- old global economy was very good for migrant capital, which could move around the world at will, its life made easier by countries vying to attract foreign capital, even bending their environmental and labour regulations. pandemic has revealed that the old economy was not good for migrant workers, however. Their “ease of living” was often sacrificed for capital’s “ease of doing business”
- Urgent need for broader progress measures as GDP does not account for vital environmental and social conditions.
- countries in which the spirit of community is high, such as the ‘socialist’ countries of Northern Europe, come on top of well-being rankings even when their per capita incomes are not the highest.
Emergency credit line guarantee scheme?
- launched as part of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package announced in May 2020. providing credit to different sectors, especially MSMEs
- 100% guarantee coverage is being provided by the National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company, whereas Banks and NBFCs provide loans
- credit will be provided in the form of a Guaranteed Emergency Credit Line (GECL) facility
- No Guarantee Fee shall be charged by NCGTC from the Member Lending Institutions (MLIs) under the Scheme.
- Interest rates under the Scheme shall be capped at 9.25% for banks and FIs, and at 14% for NBFCs.
eligibility:
- Borrowers with credit outstanding up to Rs. 50 crore as on 29th February, 2020, and with an annual turnover of up to Rs. 250 crore are eligible under the Scheme.
ECLGS 2.0: In August 2020, the government widened the scope of the Rs. 3 lakh crore-ECLGS scheme by doubling the upper ceiling of loans outstanding and including certain loans given to professionals like doctors, lawyers and chartered accountants for business purposes under its ambit. the scheme was extended to Mudra borrowers and Individual loans for business purposes.
On Nov 20, the scheme was extended through ECLGS 2.0 for 26 sectors identified by the Kamath Committee and for the Health Care sector up to Mar 21, for entities with outstanding credit of above Rs.50 crore and not exceeding Rs.500 crore.
ECLGS 3.0: extending credit of up to 40% of total credit outstanding across all lending institutions. tenor of loans was also extended to 6 yrs, incl a moratorium period of 2 yrs. also widened its scope to new sectors, including hospitality, travel and tourism
Impact
According to the SBI Research report on ECLGS:
● The scheme has saved 13.5 lakh firms from going bankrupt and consequently 1.5 crore jobs.
● In absolute terms, MSME loan accounts worth Rs 1.8 lakh crore were saved.
● Almost 93.7 per cent of such accounts are in the micro and small category.
● Amongst the states, Gujarat has been the biggest beneficiary, followed by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
T/F: Centre has decided to ease the inflation target from 4% to 5%, with a tolerance band of +/- 2 percentage points for the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI for the coming five years.
F
Centre has decided to retain the inflation target of 4%, with a tolerance band of +/- 2 percentage points for the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI for the coming five years.
the previous target was to last upto March 2021
small savings instruments?
- SSSs are important source of household savings in India. CG operates SSSs through the nationwide network of about 1.5 lakh post offices, more than 8,000 branches of the PSBs and select private sector banks and more than 5 L small savings agents.
- Small Savings Schemes can be grouped under three heads
- Post Office deposits- PO savings accounts, Time deposits etc.
- savings certificates- Nationla savings certificates and Kisan Vikas Patra
- social security schemes- PPF, Senior citizens savings scheme and Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme.
- National Small Savings Fund (NSSF) was established in 1999 within the Public Account of India for pooling the money from different SSSs.
- Objective for the formation of a dedicated fund for small savings is to de-link small savings transactions from the CFI. Since NSSF operates in the Public Account, its transactions do not impact the fiscal deficit of the Centre directly.
- The money in the account is used by the centre to finance their fiscal deficit.
- NSSF is administered by GoI Min of FInance
- As per the recommendations of the 14th FC, the govt has excluded states (except four states) from the use of SSSs money. This is because the SSSs have slightly higher interest rate than the loans procured by states.
- Government also gives slightly high interest rate (fixed by CG every qtr) for these schemes compared to the average interest in other FIs. SSSs are similar to bank saving schemes and there is competition between the two. Hence, there is a need to align the interest rate of SSSs with that of bank savings. Government in this regard has aligned the interest rate for SSS with that of government bonds of corresponding maturities. A higher spread is also provided for important SSSs that have social objectives.
Harmonized System of Nomenclature Code?
- It has been made mandatory for a GST taxpayer having a turnover of more than Rs 5 crore in the preceding financial year, to furnish 6 digits HSN Code (Harmonized System of Nomenclature Code). This comes into effect from April 1, 2021
- It is a six-digit identification code. Of the six digits, the first two denote the HS Chapter, the next two give the HS heading, and the last two give the HS subheading.
- Developed by the World Customs Organization (WCO)
- Called the “universal economic language” for goods.
- Need:
- Over 200 countries use the system as a basis for their customs tariffs, gathering international trade statistics, making trade policies, and for monitoring goods.
- The system helps in harmonising of customs and trade procedures, thus reducing costs in international trade.
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: Investors?
- Enhanced surcharge on FPIs stands withdrawn. Surcharge on domestic investors in equity markets also withdrawn.
- Aadhaar-based KYCfor opening demat accounts and investment in mutual funds.
- Govt working to bring offshore rupee market to domestic market.
- Govt to consult with RBI to enhance Credit default swap options.
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: Industry?
- CSR violationwould be treated as a civil offence, not a criminal offence.
- All pending GST refundstill now shall be paid in 30 days. Future GST refunds to be paid in 60 days.
- Govt to simplify the GST system
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: Auto sector?
- BS-IV cars purchased till March 2020 to remain operational for the entire period of registration.
- Govt asks its departments to replace old vehicles.
- Higher vehicle registration fee deferredto June next year.
- Higher depreciation for all vehicle: Depreciation increased to 30 per cent for all vehicle purchased till March 2020.
- Scrappage policy to be announced soon.
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: MSMEs?
- Govt withdraws angel tax provision for startups and their investors.
- One-time settlement policy for MSME loans. Policy to be based on check box approach.
- Laws to be amended to ensure one MSME definition.
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: Home, auto loans?
- Banks to launch Repo Rate linked loans.
- Online tracking system for home, auto loans.
- PSBs to return loan documentsto customers within 15 days of loan closure.
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: Income tax?
all Income Tax notices must be disposed off within 3 months.
Aug 2019: Govt’s steps to spur economic growth: NBFCs?
- NBFC can now use Aadhaar-based KYC.
- Prepayment notices issued to NBFCs will be monitored by banks.
- Additional liquidity to support Housing Finance Companies by National Housing Board increased to Rs 30,000 crore.
- Govt to release Rs 70,000 crore upfront for PSBs recapitalisation.
T/F: GST refunds are mandated to be paid within 30 days.
F
While the pending GST refunds are to be funded within 30 days, all future GST refunds to be paid in 60 days.
Genesis of development banks in India?
- IFCI, previously the Industrial Finance Corporation of India, was set up in 1949. This was probably India’s first development bank for financing industrial investments.
- In 1955, the World Bank prompted the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India (ICICI)- Parent of today’s ICICI Bank- s a collaborative effort between the government with majority equity holding and India’s leading industrialists with nominal equity ownership to finance modern and relatively large private corporate enterprises.
- In 1964, IDBI was set up as an apex body of all development finance institutions.
- After 1991, following the Narasimham Committee reports on financial sector reforms, development finance institutions were disbanded and got converted to commercial banks.
- The result was a steep fall in long-term credit from a tenure of 10-15 years to five years.
Project SURE?
- The SURE project is a commitment by India’s apparel industry to set a sustainable pathway for the Indian fashion industry.
- SURE stands for ‘Sustainable Resolution’ – a firm commitment from the industry to move towards fashion that contributes to a clean environment.
- The project has been launched by the union Textiles Ministry, along with Clothing Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI); United Nations in India; and IMG Reliance.
- Significance: It will be the first holistic effort by the apparel industry towards gradually introducing a broader framework for establishing critical sustainability goals for the industry.
- This framework would help the industry reduce its carbon emissions, increase resource efficiency, tackle waste and water management
Merger of 10 PSBs: intro?
- Merged banks
- PNB + Oriental bank of Commerce + United Bank of INdia: form the nation’s second largest lender with total business worth 18 L Cr
- Canara bank + Syndicate Bank: 4th largest PSB with 15 L cr
- Union Bank of India + Andhra Bank + Corporation Bank: 5th largest with business worth 14.5L cr
- Indian Bank + Allahabad bank: 7th largest with business worth 8 L cr
- Though the central government announced the plan but RBI has been given the charge for the successful implementation of the plan.
- decision by GOI has been taken under Section 7 of RBI that gives the power to the government to make rulings on RBI functioning in the interest of the public.
Merger of 10 PSBs: impact?
- No. of PSBs in India now stands at 12
- 27 in 2017
- merger of SBI’s 5 associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila Bank into SBI; merger of Dena bank and VIjaya bank into Bank of Baroda
- 18 at present
- hereafter 12
- It is in line with recommendations of:
- Narasimham committee (1991 and 1998)
- Khan committee in 1997 stressed the need for harmonization of roles of commercial banks and the financial institutions.
- Verma committee pointed out that consolidation will lead to pooling of strengths and lead to overall reduction in cost of operations.
- It is a move to attain 5 Trillion $ Target
PAiSA Portal?
- Portal for Affordable Credit and Interest Subvention Access (PAiSA).
- Lauched in Nov 2018
- It is a cetralized IT platform which simplifies and streamlines release of interest subvention under the Mission.
- It offers end to end online solution for processing, payment, monitoring and tracking of interest subvention claims from banks on a monthly basis.
- It is designed and developed by Allahabad Bank (Nodal bank).
importance of appropriateness of inflation target?
- In recent, working paper titled ‘Measuring Trend Inflation in India’, the Deputy Governor overseeing monetary policy underscored the importance of ensuring the appropriateness of the inflation target.
- there had been a steady decline in trend inflation to a 4.1%-4.3% band since 2014, they said a target far lower than the trend ran the risk of imparting a ‘deflationary bias’ that would dampen economic momentum, while a goal much above the trend could engender expansionary monetary conditions that would likely lead to inflation shocks.
- RBI’s researchers authoring its Report on Currency and Finance themed ‘Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework’ made clear that the framework had served the economy well, attested by a decline in inflation volatility and more credible anchoring of inflation expectations.
- Rightfully Monetary committee decided to extend 4% along with its bandwidth target for 2021-26
New buyers for govt bonds needed to bring down borrowing costs?
-
importance of borrowing cost of govt:
- increasing interests costs as % of GDP (1% point higher already in2021-22 than 202-21) limits govt’s ability to spend elsewhere
- this rate also affects the cost of borrowing for large parts of the economy. If Term Premium (additional Interest rate charged for longer term loans) and credit spread (additional interest rate charged for risk; sovereign bonds are risk free) had not risen over the past two years, effective borrowing costs would have been nearly 1 per cent lower
- term premium has risen from an average rate of 73 basis points since 2011 to 215 basis points in 2021, among the highest in the world
- Currently govt is borrowing at a higher cost than a mortgage on a house despite being risk free. One cause for this is the competition in residential mortgages. On the other hand, there is a structural shortage in demand for government bonds
- Over 15 years, the share of banks in the ownership of outstanding CG bonds has fallen from 53 % to 40 % now. This can be attributed to gotv wisely reducing fin repression (i.e. forcing banks to buy govt bonds with deposit money). But no alternative buyer of size has emerged to fill the space vacated
- Despite improving penetration of insurance and formalisation driving growth in pension inflows, their share of bonds outstanding has in fact shrunk over the last 15 years.
- solution may lie in getting new types of buyers. The RBI opening up direct purchases by retail investors is a step in this direction, though it may not become meaningful for a few years.
- FPIs: share of FPIs in govt bond buyers has been increasing steadily, but without Indian bonds being included in global bond indices, these flows may not be meaningful, and would be volatile, as they have been.
- To enable inclusion in bond indices, the RBI and the govt have earmarked special-category bonds which are fully accessible (FAR) by foreign investors.
- FTSE putting India on a watch-list for “potential future inclusion” in the Emerging Markets Government Bonds Index is a step forward
“Bringing petrol and diesel under GST will not lower fuel oil prices by itself, unless both Union and state governments are willing to take deep revenue cuts.”?
misnomer that merely including these items under GST would lead to a lowering of pump prices since the maximum rate on these products would be capped at 28%
- Centre and the states expected to earn around Rs 5.5 lakh crore by way of revenue from petrol and diesel during 2021-22
- Union and state levies put together account for roughly 55 per cent and 52 per cent of the retail price of petrol and diesel respectively. Further breaking-up, central levy on petrol and diesel works out to around 36% of the retail price while the state component is around 20%(diesel) to 28%(petrol)
- of the total central levies on petrol and diesel, Rs 1.40 per litre and Rs 1.80 per litre is the basic excise duty for the two fuels, and Rs 11 per litre and Rs 18 per litre is the special additional excise duty. Both these components form part of the divisible pool of taxes, 42 per cent of which (approximately Rs 52,000 crore) goes to the states. The remaining portion of Rs 18 per litre in both cases is the Road and Infrastructure Cess and Rs 2.50 per litre and Rs 4 per litre is the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess which are retained by the Centre
- Note that the original CAA that introduced GST explicitly excluded liquor and petroleum products from GST. But by the 122nd CAA, only liquor was kept in the exclusion list and GST council was empowered to simply notify petroleum products under GST without the need for CAA.
- Bringing them under GST would bring down the prices of petrol and diesel to around Rs 55 per litre even though lowering the prices to this level would entail a staggering loss of revenue to both the Centre and the states. Reluctance of states to subject around 25-30 per cent of their assured tax revenues to the initial uncertainties of a new tax regime. this would translate into a revenue loss of around Rs 3 lakh crore on account of petrol and around Rs 1.1 lakh crore on account of diesel to the Centre and the states, at current volumes.
suggestions for changes to Fiscal framework?
need: India’s general government debt has soared. It is now close to 90 per cent of GDP — the highest independent India has ever seen. The current ratio is some 10 percentage points higher than its previous peak in the early 2000s, which was the impetus for introducing the FRBM.
Govt, instead of defining arbitrary targets like 3% ficsal deficit or 60% debt-GDP etc, should focus on debt sustainability.
- India should abandon multiple fiscal criteria for guiding fiscal policy. targets can conflict with each other, creating confusion about which one to follow
- any future framework should not be fixated on specific numbers. Around the world, countries are realising that deficit targets of 3 per cent of GDP and debt targets of 60% of GDP lack proper economic grounding. Further, any specific target, no matter how well-grounded, sets up perverse incentives, encouraging governments to transfer spending off-budget
- Target only ‘primary balace’ and that too not in terms of yearly targets but gradually, by say half a percentage point of GDP per year on average, making clear that it will accelerate consolidation when times are good, moderate it when times are less buoyant, and end it when a small surplus has been achieved.
Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management (FRBM) Act?
- It was enacted in August 2003.
- It aims to make the CG responsible for ensuring inter-generational equity in fiscal management and long-term macro-economic stability.
- The Act envisages the setting of limits on the Central government’s debt and deficits.
- It limited the fiscal deficit to 3% of the GDP.
- To ensure that the States too are financially prudent, the 12th Finance Commission’s recommendations in 2004 linked debt relief to States with their enactment of similar laws.
- The States have since enacted their own respective Financial Responsibility Legislation, which sets the same 3% of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) cap on their annual budget deficits.
- It also mandates greater transparency in fiscal operations of the Central government and the conduct of fiscal policy in a medium-term framework.
- It was mandated by the act that the following must be placed along with the Budget documents annually in the Parliament:
- Macroeconomic Framework Statement
- Medium Term Fiscal Policy Statement and
- Fiscal Policy Strategy Statement
- The Budget of the Union government includes a Medium Term Fiscal Policy Statement that specifies the annual revenue and fiscal deficit goals over a three-year horizon. It was proposed that the four fiscal indicators i.e, revenue deficit as a percentage of GDP, fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP, tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, and total outstanding liabilities as a percentage of GDP be projected in the medium-term fiscal policy statement.
- It was mandated by the act that the following must be placed along with the Budget documents annually in the Parliament:
- The rules for implementing the Act were notified in July 2004. The rules were amended in 2018, and most recently to the setting of a target of 3.1% for March 2023.
- The NK Singh committee (set up in 2016) recommended that the government should target a fiscal deficit of 3% of the GDP in years up to March 31, 2020 cut it to 2.8% in 2020-21 and to 2.5% by 2023.
-
Escape Clause:
- Under Section 4(2) of the Act, the Centre can exceed the annual fiscal deficit target citing certain grounds.
- The grounds include
- National security, war
- National calamity
- Collapse of agriculture
- Structural reforms
- Decline in real output growth of a quarter by at least three percentage points below the average of the previous four quarters.
Can digital currencies and crypto investors help close India’s SME financing gap: India’s need for SME and startup financing?
- India- >60mn businesses, 10 mn having unique GST regtn nos., most of them SMEs. India is #3 generator of unicorns in the world
- of the one trillion USD worth of total commercial lending exposure of the banking system, only ~25% of it is provided to SMEs, which are considered less creditworthy than larger corporates
- This has resulted in a financing gap estimated to be between 250-500 billion USD, where meritorious businesses without national profiles aren’t able to access the capital they need to finance their growth
- India’s legacy financial system is still slow, costly, and unwieldy for borrowers
- JAM trinity only supports consumer-grade applications like basic P2P payments and individual savings accounts. Access to capital sufficient to finance a business is still not yet present for these low-income, mostly feature-phone possessing groups.
- India’s startup economy is still somewhat disconnected from global venture capitalists and financial markets.
Can digital currencies and crypto investors help close India’s SME financing gap: informational collateral as a substitute for physical collaterals for SMEs and startups?
SMEs don’t have the physical assets to take out loans, which are the mainstay of the current, hard-collateral-backed credit system.
One alternative is to use trustworthy digital records to ascertain whether a business is worthy of credit or equity investment. GST can help to address this by generating invoice and payment data in a format suitable for credit underwriting and risk analysis.
The digital version of an SME’s sales and purchase invoices ledger thus amounts to informational collateral on both the company and the larger ecosystem within which it sits, that could become the basis for extending credit
This is similar to how Square Capital and Stripe Capital already function in the West.
Can digital currencies and crypto investors help close India’s SME financing gap: use f cryptocurrencies?
the 10-year old cryptoeconomy is now worth trillions of dollars, there are more than a hundred million crypto holders around the world, and there are at least fifty crypto protocols valued over one billion dollars, a “unicoin” analog to the traditional tech unicorn. a sector worth $2T that is growing at more than 100% per annum could become a much larger piece of the global financial puzzle in short order.
This is a new source of risk-tolerant digital capital that could flow into India to help close the SME financing gap, if we can make it an attractive proposition for the global investor.
Why are small savings rate linked to G-sec yields?
Since April 2016, interest rates of all small saving schemes have been linked to government bond yields and are now recalibrated on a quarterly basis.
Since then, rates have been declining gradually.
money collected through these schemes is invested in central and state government securities. Earlier, when they were delinked, while the yield on the latter progressively declined over time, small savings rates remained downwardly rigid — the result being an asset-liability mismatch that threatened the viability of the NSSF.
MSMEs: significance?
- 29% of INdia’s GDP
- employs 11 cr people in its 6.3 cr enterprises
- higher labour intensity than big corporates. MSMEs generate the highest employment per capita investment
- about 33% of manufacturing output. around 6.11% of the manufacturing GDP and 24.63% of the GDP from service activities as well
- about 48% of the total exports
- MSME sector in India has grown significantly since 1960 – with an average annual growth rate of 4.4% in the number of units and 4.62% in employment
- go a long way in checking rural-urban migration
- strong and complex backward and forward linkages, ancillary services providing essential support to large enterprises and their value chain
- ~20% of these MSMEs are based in rural areas, promoting inclusive development as well as equitable regional growth
- As on January 23, 2022, the number of SC-owned Generally, the proportion of enterprises owned by Scheduled Caste entrepreneurs in the overall national tally of MSMEs is 6%. enterprises at the all-India level was 4,53,972, of which micro enterprises accounted for 4,50,835, small – 3,004 and medium - 133.
MSMEs: govt recent efforts (March 2021)?
- simplification of registration and definition
- An MSME would hereafter been referred to as Udyam and the registration process as Udyam Registration.
- Registration can be filed online based on self-declaration. Uploading of documents, papers or certificate as proof would not be necessary henceforth.
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basic criteria for MSME classification would be on investment in plant, machinery and equipment and turnover:
- Micro: inv< 1cr and turnover <5cr
- Small: inv< 10cr and turnover < 50cr
- Medium: inv< 50cr and turnover <250cr
- Export of goods or services or both would be excluded while calculating the turnover of any enterprise and investment calculation linked to the IT return of the previous year.
- Champions Control Room across the country have been made legally responsible for facilitating entrepreneurs in registration and thereafter.
- Collateral-free Automatic Loans upto INR 3 Lakh Crore. Facility to borrow emergency credit from banks and NBFCs up to 20% of their entire outstanding credit
- 20,000 Crore as subordinate debt: MSMEs with declared NPAs or those stressed will be eligible for equity support.
- to infuse INR 50,000 Crore in ‘equity’ through a fund of funds.
- INR 3 L Cr Emergency Credit LIne Guarantee scheme (ECLGS) with 2.9 L Cr already scanctioned till Jan 2021
- to address the problem of unfair competition between Indian MSMEs and foreign companies, the government has taken the decision to not allow global tenders in procurements up to INR 200 Crore.
- fintech enterprises will be used to boost transaction-based lending in this sector and the data will be used by the e-marketplace.
-
Budget 2021-22:
- INR 15700 cr to be provided to MSME sector- double that of BE of 2020-21
- Conciliation mechanism to be set up for quick resolution of contractual disputes with govt or PSEs
- a special framework for MSMEs shall be introduced for faster resolution of cases
India: Pharmacy to the world: stats?
- largest provider of generic drugs globally.
- Indian pharmaceutical industry meets over 50% of global demand for various vaccines, 40% of generic demand in the U.S. and 25% of all medicine in the U.K.
- Presently, over 80% of the antiretroviral drugs used globally to combat AIDS are supplied by Indian firms
- Indian pharma exports reaching >17Bn$ in 2019
- Indian pharmaceuticals market is the world’s third-largest in terms of volume and thirteenth-largest in terms of value. It has established itself as a global manufacturing and research hub.
- Fixed dose combination (FDC) drugs (where two or more drugs are combined in a set ratio in a single dose form) is considered an innovation of India’s national pharmaceutical industry.
India: Pharmacy to the world: issues?
- dependence on China: import 70% of APIs for our pharmacy
- hollowing out: India is preferred producer only for simpler off-patent formulations. producers move important activities of manufacturing to low-cost facilities overseas (China producing API at 40% cheaper rate than that of Indian manufacturer).
- a study found that thousands of FDCs on the market made up of formulations never approved for marketing by the national regulator, the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation, and that were likely to be more harmful than beneficial to patients.
- challenge to IPR of big Pharma companies
- Indian pharmaceutical Industry is facing pressure from both the government and the civil society to make generic medicines more affordable
INdia: pharmacy to the world: way forward?
- India should look up to and invest in biotechnology. India’s biotechnology industry, comprising biopharmaceuticals, bio-services, bio agriculture, bio-industry and bioinformatics is expected to grow at an average rate of around 30% a year and reach $100 billion by 2025.
- Indian govt’s ‘PharmaVision 2020’ aims to make iNdia a global leader in end-to-end drug mfg
“IBC is moving away from its promoter averse approach”?
recent amendments, via an ordinance, introduced the concept of pre-packs for MSMEs
- framework involves a privately negotiated contract between the promoters of a financially distressed firm and its financial creditors to restructure the company’s obligations, within the IBC architecture, but before the commencement of insolvency proceedings. if accepted by creditors, mustbe approved by NCLT as well
- Note that firm’s promoters could have submitted a resolution plan even after it enters the insolvency proceedings but the difference is:
- under IBC, upon the initiation of insolvency proceedings, control of a firm is wrested from its existing promoters, and a resolution professional is appointed. The amendment allows the promoter to retain control. We have transitioned from “creditor in control” to “debtor in control”
- the absence of an open bidding process, such as during the resolution phase — which would have allowed for multiple competing offers to be considered by the committee of creditors — might raise questions over price discovery
- This amendment acknowledges that not all debt defaults are result of corrupt promoters, especially in wake of the pandemic induced lockdown and sslump in demand.
- pushing struggling firms through the IBC process, which suffers frm liquidation bias (of the 2,422 cases closed since IBC came into being, 46.5 per cent of the firms have gone into liquidation, while a resolution plan has been accepted in only 13% cases; liquidation recovers jst a fraction of debt), would lead to significant value destruction.
- Moreover, this entire process remains outside the restructuring framework of RBI . pre-packs encompass all financial creditors, as opposed to RBI’s restructuring schemes which deal only with banks, this takes into account concerns of other financial creditors as well.
India’s automobile industry: significance?
- contributes 6.4 per cent to GDP, around 35 per cent to manufacturing GDP, supports over 8 million jobs directly (OEMs, suppliers and dealers) and as many as 30 million more in the value chain.
- generates export revenue of $27 billion that is nearly 8 per cent of the total merchandise exports from India.
- important for MSME sector: MSME share of value-addition to a car is 35 per cent. one estimate puts the total number of MSMEs engaged in the auto value chain in the range of 25,000-30,000.
- rapid strides made in recent times:
- advancement of the supplier ecosystem in India
- build-quality of our products. Quality defects have reduced by a staggering 90 per cent
- our ability to design, engineer and develop world-class products completely in India. Scorpio, Indica, XUV500, Nano and Pulsar brought respect to India’s engineering capabilities. Today, every major carmaker has an engineering centre in India
- potential for further growth
- In countries like Korea, Germany, Thailand, Germany, and Japan — the auto industry contributes more than 10 per cent to the country’s GDP
- scrappage policy will further help to take polluting, unsafe, gas-guzzlers off the roads.
- opportunity for India is to carve out a niche for itself in EV tech and solutions space — related to first/last-mile mobility and delivery.
- government had released an Automotive Mission Plan 2026. Done right, a $200 billion industry with exports of $50 billion by 2026 is not out of reach.
- suggestions:
- need to enhance local value addition and make large investments in capacities
- Indian products need to be globally competitive in cost, quality, and technology.
- India needs to sign bilateral treaties to get favourable tariff regimes for auto exports.
- government needs to take a hard look at rationalising the extremely high GST rates on automobiles in a phase-wise manner and be pragmatic about introducing new regulations.
IPO Grey market?
an IPO grey market is an unofficial market where IPO shares or applications are bought and sold before they become available for trading on the stock market.
It is also termed a parallel market or an over-the-counter market.
Since it’s unofficial, inevitably, there are no regulations that govern it. The SEBI, stock exchanges, and brokers have no part to play in it. These transactions are undertaken in cash on a one-on-one basis.
Kostak rate?
It relates to an IPO application. So, the rate at which an investor buys an IPO application before the listing is termed the Kostak rate.
India’s GDP growth (and other stats) for FY 2020-21?
Acc to NSO’s National income estimatesin released in June 2021,
- GDP shrank by 7.3%, marginally better than expected 8% contraction projected earlier. In previous FY India’s GDP grew @4.1%
- GVA sharnk 6.2% in FY 2020 compared to 4% rise last FY
- Only two sectors bucked the trend of negative GVA growth — agriculture, forestry and fishing, which rose 3.6%, and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services (up 1.9%).
- this is the bleakest performance on record for the economy
- The Q4 of 2020-21 helped moderate the damage, with a higher-than-expected growth of 1.6% in GDP. This marked the second quarter of positive growth after the country entered a technical recession in the first half of the year. GDP growth in the four qrtrs in FY20 were -24.4%, -7.4%, +0.5% and +1.6%
- GVA from trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting-related services recorded the sharpest decline of 18.2%, followed by construction (-8.6%), mining and quarrying (-8.5%) and manufacturing (-7.2%).
- Studies show that more than 200 million Indians are expected to fall into poverty as a result of shutdowns and healthcare costs. The S&P has now downgraded Indian GDP growth to 9.8%.
- India recorded a fiscal deficit of 9.3% of GDP in 2020-21, 0.2% lower than the revised estimate of 9.5% of GDP, acc to CGA. The government has set a target to reduce the fiscal deficit this year to 6.8% of GDP.
Digital tax imposed by India?
- India was the one of the first countries to introduce a 6 per cent equalisation levy in 2016, but the levy was restricted to online advertisement services. equalisation levy was imposed “to give level playing field between Indian businesses who pay tax in India and foreign e-commerce companies who do business in India but do not pay any income tax here.
- However, India introduced the digital tax (2%) in April 2020 for foreign companies selling goods and services online to customers in India i.e. non resident e-commerce players, and showing annual revenues more than INR 20 million.
- scope was further widened in the Finance Act 2021-22 to cover e-commerce supply or service when any activity takes place online.
- Since May 2021, this also includes any entity that systematically and continuously does business with more than 3 lakh users in India.
- Offshore e-commerce firms that sell through an Indian arm will not have to pay i.e. if the goods and services sold on a foreign e-commerce platform are owned or provided by an Indian resident or Indian permanent establishment, they will not be subject to the two percent equalization levy.
Examples of other countries that imply digital tax on digital services?
- France imposes a three percent digital services tax.
- In the ASEAN region, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia impose a digital service tax with Thailand announcing forthcoming plans to tax its foreign digital service providers.
- Negotiations are underway at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) involving 140 countries to overhaul international tax rules given the fast growth of internet economies.
Arguments against digital tax levied by India?
- USTR) says that this tax is discriminatory because
- DST discriminates against US digital businesses because it specifically excludes from its ambit domestic (Indian) digital businesses.
- it does not extend to identical services provided by non-digital service providers.
- Eventually the tax may become a burden for Digital Consumers.
- It could invite retaliatory tariffs (such as the latest one), as similar tariffs were imposed by the US on France.
- can also lead to double taxation
liable entity for digital tax when:
- service provider is outside India and receiver is inside INdia and transaction is B2B
- service provider is inside India and receiver is outside INdia and transaction is B2B
- service provider is outside India and receiver is inside INdia and transaction is B2C
- service provider is inside India and receiver is outside INdia and transaction is B2C
- service receiver
- export of service exempt from service tax
- service provider
- exempt
Challenge of good corporate governance?
To balance seemingly contradictory goals of : short term financial performance for the intersts of the share-holders with that of society when the incentive structure is disproportionately skewedin favour of the former
Benefits of good corporate governance?
1) “reputation Institute”, an NGO estimates that intangibles like reputation make up approx 81% of a company’s value and a strong reputation yields 2.5X better stock market performance 2) Well governed companies hv easier access to capital, pay lower interest rates, scure better credit terms and attract the best of talents 3) Prohibitive examples: a) Whistleblower allegation of breach in disclosure of fin data by Infosys led to its mkt cap drop by abt 50000cr in one trading session b) IPO of Saudi govt owned Aramco, originally valued at 2Tn $, the market valuation from testing came out to 1-1.2 Tn$ mainly because of perception of opacity in saudi governance str.
Good corporate governance: suggestions?
1) A processneeds to be engendered to create a balanced incentive str that motivates generation of fin returns through societal welfare than the current str that views one as trade off for another 2)Get the 4 stakeholders i.e. Management (custodian of operational performance and driven by short term fin needs), IDs (represents minority stakeholders), regulator (to frame rules and procedures of governance) and Govt (law maker and agency for bringing corporates into the developmental net ) on the same page and hv comparable powers to checkand balance each other into coolab and coop. Currently there isn’t a platform that brings all of them formally together.
Contri of C, S and I in gross GST?
CGST (~20%) SGST (25%) IGST (50%) incl on imports (20%) cess (6%)
GST provision regarding compensation to states? can the deadline be extended?
While States would receive the SGST (State GST) component of the GST, and a share of the IGST (integrated GST), it was agreed that revenue shortfalls arising from the transition to the new indirect taxes regime would be made good from a pooled GST Compensation Fund for a period of five years that is currently set to end in June 2022.
as per GST act, states hv been guaranteed compensation in the event of their revenue growth falling below 14% (base 2015-16) for a five yr period ending in 2022
Deadline extesion, as demanded by many states like TN, WB, RJ and CHH, in view of COVID impct, can be done by amendment only. The deadline for GST compensation was set in the original legislation and so in order to extend it, the GST Council must first recommend it and the Union government must then move an amendment to the GST law allowing for a new date beyond the June 2022 deadline at which the GST compensation scheme will come to a close.
GST provision if collections from compensation cess are unable to fully meet the shortfall in states’ GST revenue for a particular yr? States’ view?
Centre believes that since the law says compensation has to be paid out of the fund, the compensation can be deferred till there is enough money in the fund states claim the Constitution amendment guarantees them compensation for the first five years, irrespective of whether there is money in the compensation fund or not
Compensation Cess in GST: what is it? how is it calculated? approx annual size? paying frequency?
compensation cess is levied on goods that come under 28 per cent GST slab, on so-called ‘demerit’ goods.
● The items are pan masala, cigarettes and tobacco products, aerated water, caffeinated beverages, coal and certain passenger motor vehicles.
deficit is calculated assuming that states GST revenues grow at 14 per cent every year beginning 2015-16
95,000 crore
Every two months
Bharat Bond ETF: what?
India’s first corporate bond exchange traded fund, comprising debt of state-run companies
Bharat Bond ETF: key features?
1) allow retail investors to buy government debt with as low as ₹1,000, thus deepening bond mkt 2)will provide tax efficiency as compared to bonds, as coupons (interest) from the bonds are taxed depending on the investor’s tax slab. (thus better alternative to FD) 3) will have a fixed maturity of three and ten years and will trade on the stock exchanges (thus high liquidity) 4) will track an underlying index on risk replication basis constructed by an independent index provider, National Stock Exchange
Transactional value of digital payments in India: 2019? 2023? rate of growth?
- 8 Bn $
- 2 Bn $
- 2%
Bonded area scheme:what is it? by?
1) When the raw materials or capital goods are imported into the bonded area, the import duty on them is deferred. 2) If these imported inputs are utilised for exports, the deferred duty is exempted. 3) Only when the finished goods are cleared to the domestic market, import duty is to be paid on the imported raw materials used in the production. 4) Import duty on capital goods is to be paid if and when the capital goods are cleared to the domestic market. 5) for mfg and other processing ind like e-commerce too Central Board of indirect taxes
T/F: SEBI recently launched independent Directors Databank.
F Min of Corporate Affairs
T/F: independent Directors Databank is developed and maintained by IICA.
T by Indian Indstitute of corporate Affairs under MCA
T/F: Companies Act, 2013 has mandated all listed public companies to have at least 50% of the total Directors to be independent.
F 1/3rd
Fugitive Economic Offender: 1. Defn? 2. procedure?
- can be named an offender under the law if there is an arrest warrant against him or her for involvement in economic offences involving at least Rs. 100 crore or more and has fled from India to escape legal action. 2. inv agencies hv to file application in a special court under PMLA; person has to surrender within 6 weeks; proceedings will be terminated if he appears, otherwise declared FEO; can challenge proclamation in HC within 30days
Schedule bank?
- Scheduled Banks in India refer to those banks which have been included in the Second Schedule of Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.
- Every Scheduled bank enjoys two types of principal facilities:
- It becomes eligible for debts/loans at the bank rate from the RBI; and,
- it automatically acquires the membership of clearing house.
Payments bank
- main objective: to ensure the financial inclusion by providing payments/remittance services to migrant labour workforce, opening up small savings accounts of small business holders, low income households, workers of the unorganised sector.
- can accept deposit bt upto a limit (2L)
- can issue ATM/Debit card bt NOT CREDIT CARD ; can also provide mobile and internet banking
- can open both savings and current acct
- no loan services; though can extend 3rd party loans as BCs
- cannot accept deposits frm NRIs/ cross-border remittances
- 3rd party non-risk sharing simple financial products like mutual fund units and insurance products
- can fn as BC for other banks
SFB?
- objectives: to further financial inclusion by (1) the provision of savings vehicles (2) supply of credit to small business units; small and marginal farmers; micro and small industries; and other unorganised sector entities 2. no restriction in the area of op 3. can take small deposits and disburse loans (nt big loans). 4. can Distribute mutual funds, insurance products and other simple third-party financial products. 5. can issue ATM/debit cards/ credit cards
restrictions on Payment banks?
- will have to deposit the amount in the form of Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) with RBI like other commercial banks do.
- SLR: min 75% of its demand deposits in govt treasury/securities bills with maturity up to one year and hold maximum 25 %in current and fixed deposits with other commercial banks for operational purposes.
- must use the word “Payments Bank” in their names
- SINCE NO LENDING => NO PSL
restrictions on SFB?
- SFBs have to maintain Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) as per RBI norms. 2. Lend 75% of their total adjusted net bank credit to priority sector. 3. Minimum 50% of loans should be up to 25 lakhs 4. needs to open at least 25% of its banking outlets in unbanked rural centres.
setting up Payments bank: who can promote?
- Existing non-bank Pre-paid Payment Instrument (PPI) issuers 2. telecom companies 3. NBFCs 4. BCs 5. corporates 6. real sector cooperatives that are owned and controlled by residents 7. PSEs
min paid up capital: 1. for PB? 2. SFB?
- 100cr 2. 200cr (raised frm 100cr)
setting up SFB: who can promote?
- individuals/professionals with 10 yrs experience in Finance 2. NBFCs 3. MFI 4. Local Area Banks
on tap licensing of pvt sector SFBs: RBI guidelines?
- PBs can apply for conversion into SFBs after 5yrs of op 2. Promoter of a PB can set up a SFB, such that both banks come under non-operating Fin Holding company (NOFHC) str 3. min paid up capital requirement forSFBs raised to 200cr 4. SFBs shud be listed within 3 yrs of reaching a net worth of 500cr. 5. They will be given scheduled bank status immediately upon commencement of operations, and will have general permission to open banking outlets 6. promoter should hold a minimum of 40% of the paid-up voting equity capital for five years; and if it is more than 40%, it needs to be brought down to 40% (in 5 yrs), 30% (in10 yrs) and 15% (in 15 yrs) 7. Primary UCBs can also convert to SFBs , provided they comply with the on-tap licencing guidelines
T/F: payment banks and SFBs are eligible to conduct govt agency business.
T
allowed since Dec2021; It will be subject to the condition that the concerned bank is not under the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework or moratorium.
Implications:
● The Bank can now participate in government and other large corporations issued Request for Proposals (RFP), primary auctions, fixed-rate and variable rate repos, and reverse repos, along with participation in Marginal Standing Facility.
● Also, the bank would now also be eligible to partner in government-run financial inclusion schemes.
PLFS: about?
PLFS is India’s first computer-based survey which gives estimates of key employment and unemployment indicators like the labour force participation rate, worker population ratio, proportion unemployed and unemployment rate in
- rural households annually and
- on a quarterly basis for the urban households.
PLFS also gives the distribution of educated and unemployed people, which in turn can be used as a basis for skilling
survey was launched by NSSO in 2017 and the first annual report was released (July 2017-June 2018), covering both rural and urban areas, in May 2019.
PLFS: findings fr 2017-18?
- According to Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2017-18, 6.1% (45 year high) of India’s labour force, and 17.8% of young people (15-29 years) in the labour force are unemployed
- proportion of the workforce engaged in regular wage/salaried jobs increased by 5 percentage points between 2011-12 (when the last NSSO employment unemployment survey was conducted) and 2017-18.
- this increase was partly because of the denominator effect (the overall workforce declined by 4 percentage points
- As a share of the population, regular workers increased only by one percentage point to 8% over the same period.
- India still lags far behind its South Asian neighbours and developing economies such as China (53.1%), Brazil (67.7%) and South Africa (84.8%) in the share of salaried or regular jobs.
- While median daily earnings were higher for men and women in regular jobs, as compared to self-employment and casual work, not all salaried jobs guarantee high pays as around 45% of salaried workers — the best-paid workers in India — earned less than ₹10,000 per month, and only about 4% of them earned more than ₹50,000 per month in 2017-18.
- Overall, 72% of regular workers earned below the minimum monthly salary of ₹18,000 prescribed by the 7th Pay Commission.
- wages and earnings were higher in urban areas than in rural areas, and for men than for women.
- About 15% of regular workers (21% fr women regular workers category) were engaged in elementary occupations such as building caretakers, garbage collectors and manual workers.
- The median earnings of these workers was only about one-fourth of the top-earning occupational group (legislators, senior officials and managers).
- About 71% of the regular workers in the non-agricultural sector did not have a written job contract in 2017-18. proportion without a job contract increased for both men and women regular workers between 2011-12 and 2017-18. So did the proportion of workers who were not eligible for paid leave
unemployment rate trend acc to CMIE?
According to monthly data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, unemployment rate in India shot up significantly from 7.87% in June 2019 to 23.48% in May 2020.
PLFS: findings 2018-19?
- India’s unemployment rate fell between July 2018 and June 2019 to 5.8% from 6.1% (45 yr high) during the same period of 2017-18.
- The dip in unemployment rates came across all categories, though women and rural workers showed the most improvement.
- Women’s unemploymet fell frm 5.7% to 5.2%, while male unemployment fell frm 6.2% to 6.1%.
- Urban unemploymnt still high at 7.7% in 2018-19, a marginal drop frm 7.8% in 2017-18
- rural unemployment fell frm 5.3% to 5%
- the labour force participation rate rose marginally to 37.5% from 36.9%.
- Female participation rate improved in both urban and rural India during the period under review, going up to 18.6% in 2018-19 from 17.5% the year before.
- The worker population ratio (number of persons employed per thousand persons) also increased, to 35.3% as against 34.7% in the 2017-18.
“We need to face the challenge of job creation and up-skilling of youth for the labour market to ensure that India’s demographic dividend does not become a demographic disaster.”?
Threat of demographic disaster:
- unprecedented UR even before the pandemic hit; further exacerbated by pandemic
- unemployment rate has risen steeply in the last few years, from about 15.66 per cent in 2016-17 to 28.26 per cent in 2020-21 (it was 32.03 per cent in August 2021)
- Even getting a degree is no guarantee for a job — 9 million of 55 million graduate degree holders were unemployed in 2019.
- We seem to be wasting our nation’s demographic potential — our youth stay unemployed for longer, desperately awaiting a chance to crack a government job. And if they don’t, then the only option is to get an informal job as a labourer.
- India needs to create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 and 2030, to ensure our demographic surplus is absorbed
- the hopes of quick fixes are not panning out
- hope on startups: as of July 2021, there were more than 53,000 recognised start-ups in India, which had created about 5.7 lakh jobs (not counting the jobs they may have destroyed by optimising value-chains).
- gig economy: lack of formalisation; plus hindered by pandemic
- old tap of public sector jobs has gone dry — there were 11.3 lakh employees in Central Public Sector Enterprises as of March 31, 2017; by 2019, this had dipped down to 10.3 lakh.
- many have simply stopped searching for jobs; the labour force participation rate has dropped to 40-42 per cent from 47.26 per cent in August 2016 — 60 per cent of our workforce is simply not looking for work.
- demand for state-assured labour jobs under the National Employment Guarantee Scheme has gone up, with 85.6 million individuals participating between April and October 2021, significantly higher than between 2017 and 2019.
- In 2021, Shivpuri, in Madhya Pradesh, was witness to scenes of pandemonium, as about 8,000 citizens waited in line for a chance to become one of the 20 peons being recruited for the district court. In Gwalior, 15 openings for various junior roles (from a driver to a watchman) saw over 11,000 unemployed young men flock to collect forms. Often, the same person (educated to an MBA or PhD) would be applying for the role of a peon, while preparing for a judge’s exam.
Suggestions
- rejuvenate the state by dramatically expanding basic public services: As of 2019, before the pandemic, there were about 2,00,000 million health worker vacancies, 1 million teacher vacancies and 1.17 million anganwadi worker positions — totalling over 2.5 million vacancies. Additionally, there is a clear need to expand capacity in healthcare by 2,90,000-4,20,000 health workers. By regularising the contractual and seasonal workers in these sectors, can create over 5.2 Mn jobs
- At the same time, we need to help up-skill the existing labour force, particularly in urban India. A national urban employment guarantee scheme, with a focus on creating public assets, would help improve skill sets, provide certification and give income support. Such a scheme could cover 20 million urban casual workers for 100 days, at a wage rate of Rs 300 per day, with an overall cost of Rs 1 lakh crore annually. This will also help in urban rejuvenation.
- Another way out could be to foster “green jobs” — including those traditionally under the remit of public services. It is estimated that a municipal council-based town could create about 650 “green jobs” in such categories, while a city municipal council could lead to the creation of 1,875 jobs and a full-fledged municipal corporation could lead to 9,085 jobs. About 150-2,500 of these jobs in the latter area would be generated in the renewables sector, while an additional 300-2,000 jobs would be in waste management, 80-1,700 in urban farming and 300-2,000 jobs in waste management.
Moodys’ downgrading INdia’s rating?
- Moody’s has downgraded the GoI’s foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer ratings to “Baa3” from “Baa2”. It stated that the outlook remained “negative”.
- This reduces India to the lowest investment grade of ratings and brings Moody’s ratings for the country in line with the other two main rating agencies in the world — Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch.
- When India’s sovereign rating is downgraded, it becomes costlier for the Indian government as well as all Indian companies to raise funds because now the world sees such debt as a riskier proposition.
-
reasons for downgrade:
- Weak implementation of economic reforms since 2017.
- Relatively low economic growth over a sustained period.
- A significant deterioration in the fiscal position of governments (central and state).
- And the rising stress in India’s financial sector.
- a “negative” implies India could be rated down further. The negative outlook reflects dominant, mutually-reinforcing, downside risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system that could lead to a more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength than Moody’s currently projects. Moody’s has highlighted persistent structural challenges to fast economic growth such as “weak infrastructure, rigidities in labor, land and product markets, and rising financial sector risks”.
- Moody’s outlook on economic growth, jobs and per capita income: expects India’s real GDP to contract by 4.0% in the current FY. Thereafter it expects a sharp recovery in 2021-22. But over the longer term, it states “growth rates are likely to be materially lower than in the past”
- Moody’s observed that since the 2017 upgrade to “Baa2 with a stable outlook” (on the back of key reforms), relatively weak implementation of reforms has not rsulted in material credit improvements indicating limited policy effectiveness.
Long term Credit rating scales?
- Prime: Aaa (Moody’s) and AAA (S&P and Fitch)
- High grade: Aa(1,2,3) and AA(+, , -)
- Upper medium grade: A (1,2,3) and A (+, ,-)
- Lower mEdium grade: Baa (1,2,3) and BBB (+, ,-)
- India recently downgraded frm Baa2 to Baa3 by Moody’s and is already at BBB- fr the other two
Hereon, bonds are called Junk
Non-investment grade speculative
Highly speculative
Substantial risk
Extremely speculative
Default imminent with little prospect fr recovery
Default
Committee set up on social stock exchanges: about?
- by SEBI
- under Ishaat Hussain
- in Sept 2019
- to suggest possible structures and regulations for creating SSE to facilitate listing and fund-raising by social enterprises as well as voluntary organisations.
- idea of a social stock exchange (SSE) for listing of social enterprise and voluntary organisations was mooted by FM in Budget 2019-20
Committee set up on social stock exchanges: key recommendations?
- Allow direct listing of non-profit organisations through the issuance of bonds and a range of funding mechanisms.
- Funding mechanisms suggested include some of the existing mechanisms such as Social Venture Funds (SVFs) under the Alternative Investment Funds.
- A new minimum reporting standard has also been proposed for organisations which would raise funds under social stock exchanges (SSE).
- Profit social enterprises can also list on SSE with enhanced reporting requirement. To encourage, giving culture some tax incentives have also been suggested.
- SSE can be housed within the existing stock exchange such as the BSE and/or NSE. This will help the SSE leverage the existing infrastructure and client relationships of the exchanges to onboard investors, donors, and social enterprises (for-profit and non-profit).
What is social capital?
- Social capital is defined by the OECD as “networks together with shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate co-operation within or among groups”
- it can be divided into three main categories:
- Bonds: Links to people based on a sense of common identity (“people like us”) – such as family, close friends and people who share our culture or ethnicity.
- Bridges: Links that stretch beyond a shared sense of identity, for example to distant friends, colleagues and associates.
- Linkages: Links to people or groups further up or lower down the social ladder
- term has been in use for almost a century while the ideas behind it go back further still. “Social capital” may first have appeared in a book published in 1916 by Lyda Hanifan in the United States that discussed how neighbours could work together to oversee schools.
- Recently, the term became in vogue after Robert Putnam and his work “Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community”
Patient capital?
- another name for long term capital. With patient capital, the investor is willing to make a financial investment in a business with no expectation of turning a quick profit. Instead, the investor is willing to forgo an immediate return in anticipation of more substantial returns down the road.
- it has gained new life with the rise in environmentally and socially responsible enterprises. In these cases it is characterized by
- Willingness to forgo maximum financial returns for social impact, and an unwillingness to sacrifice the interests of the end customer for the sake of shareholders
- Greater tolerance for risk than traditional investment capital
- Longer time horizons for return of capital
- Intensive support of management as they grow their enterprise
- Patient capital is not a grant, it is an investment intended to return its principal plus (often below market-rate) interest. It does not seek to maximize financial returns to investors; it seeks to maximize social impact and to catalyze the creation of markets to combat poverty.
What is a social enterprise?
A social enterprise is a revenue-generating business. Its primary objective is to achieve a social objective, for example, providing healthcare or clean energy.
This in no way means that a social enterprise can’t be highly profitable. In fact, most social enterprises look and operate like traditional businesses.
The only catch is that the profit these entities generate is not necessarily used for payouts to stakeholders, but reinvested into their social programmes.
Global examples of social stock exchanges?
- UK: The Social Stock Exchange in London functions more as a directory connecting social enterprises and potential investors.
- Kenya: The Kenya Social Investment Exchange, connects vetted social enterprises with impact investors, both foreign and domestic.
- Canada: Backed by the Ontario government, the SVX is an online platform that allows investments in Canadian companies and funds that have “a positive social or environmental impact”.
- Singapore: The Impact Investment Exchange runs a social stock exchange in partnership with the Stock Exchange of Mauritius, which is open to limited accredited investors who want to invest.
Shapes of recovery: Z?
- Z-Shaped recovery:
- most-optimistic scenario in which the economy quickly rises like a phoenix after a crash.
- It more than makes up for lost ground (think revenge-buying after the lockdowns are lifted) before settling back to the normal trend-line, thus forming a Z-shaped chart.
Shapes of recovery: V?
In V-shaped recovery the economy quickly recoups lost ground and gets back to the normal growth trend-line.
CLear example is the US recession in mid-1950s.
Shapes of recovery: U?
A U-shaped recovery is a scenario in which the economy, after falling, struggles and muddles around a low growth rate for some time, before rising gradually to usual levels.
eg. US’s downturn in 1973-75
Shapes of Recovery: W?
A W-shaped recovery, aka ‘double-dip’, is a dangerous creature — growth falls and rises, but falls again before recovering yet again, thus forming a W-like chart.
eg. US in 1980-82, wherein economy dipped in 1980H1, recovered in 1981H2 but fell again in 1982H1 and then recovered
Shapes of Recovery: L?
The L-shaped recovery is the worst-case scenario, in which growth after falling, stagnates at low levels and does not recover for a long, long time.
eg. Japanese economy in 1990s, when it stagnated for a ‘lost decade’ after an asset bubble burst
Shapes of Recovery: J?
The J-shaped recovery is a somewhat unrealistic scenario, in which growth rises sharply from the lows much higher than the trend-line and stays there.
Shapes of Recovery: square root shape?
this basically explains that while tehre could be rebound from the bottom, the growth slows and settles a step down from before the crash.
Shapes of recovery? Deciding factors ?
- Z
- V
- U
- W
- L
- J
- Swoosh
- Inverted square root
Factors responsible: shape of economic recovery is determined by both the speed and direction of GDP prints. This depends on multiple factors including fiscal and monetary measures, consumer incomes and sentiment.
India’s forex reserves?
In May 2020, it touched an all time high of 493.5 Bn $
The level of foreign exchange reserves has steadily increased by 8,400 per cent from $5.8 billion as of March 1991 to the current level.
India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves equaled 25.9 Months of Import in Apr 2020
Why are forex reserves rising despite the slowdown in the economy?
- Rise in investment in foreign portfolio investors in Indian stocks and foreign direct investments (FDIs).
- Fall in crude oil prices has brought down the oil import bill, saving the precious foreign exchange.
- Overseas remittances and foreign travels have fallen steeply – down 61 per cent in April from $12.87 billion.
significance of rising forex reserves?
- rising forex reserves give a lot of comfort to the government and the Reserve Bank of India in managing India’s external and internal financial issues at a time when the economic growth is set to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2020-21.
- It’s a big cushion in the event of any crisis on the economic front and enough to cover the import bill of the country for a year.
- The rising reserves have also helped the rupee to strengthen against the dollar.
- Reserves will provide a level of confidence to markets that a country can meet its external obligations, demonstrate the backing of domestic currency by external assets, assist the government in meeting its foreign exchange needs and external debt obligations and maintain a reserve for national disasters or emergencies.
Where are India’s forex reserves kept?
- The RBI Act, 1934 provides the overarching legal framework for deployment of reserves in different foreign currency assets and gold within the broad parameters of currencies, instruments, issuers and counterparties.
- As much as 64 per cent of the foreign currency reserves is held in the securities like Treasury bills of foreign countries, mainly the US. 28 per cent is deposited in foreign central banks. 7.4 per cent is also deposited in commercial banks abroad.
- India also held 653.01 tonnes of gold as of March 2020, with 360.71 tonnes being held overseas in safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements, while the remaining gold is held domestically.
What is rights issue?
- It is an offering of shares made to existing shareholders in proportion to their existing shareholding.
- Companies often offer shares in a rights issue at a discount on the market price.
- Rights issues are used by companies seeking to raise capital without increasing debt.
- Shareholders are not obliged to purchase shares offered in a rights issue.
- For a rights issue, there is no requirement of shareholders’ meeting and an approval from the board of directors is sufficient and adequate. Therefore, the turnaround time for raising this capital is short that makes it suitable fr COVID times
- recently,
- Sebi reduced the eligibility requirement of average market capitalisation of public shareholding from Rs 250 crore to Rs 100 crore for a fast track rights issuance.
- It also reduced the minimum subscription requirement from 90 per cent to 75 per cent of the issue size.
- Also, listed entities raising funds upto Rs 25 crores (erstwhile limit was Rs 10 crores) through a rights issue are now not required to file draft offer document with SEBI.
- Many companies including Reliance Industries Limited, Mahindra finance, Tata Power plan to raise funds (aggregating to over Rs 10,000 crore) through rights issue amidst the Covid-19 pandemic.
draft Framework for ‘Sale of Loan Exposures’?
- by RBI
- aimed at building a robust secondary market for bank loans that could ensure proper price discovery and can be used as an indicator for impending stress.
- These guidelines will be applicable to commercial banks, all financial institutions, non-banking finance companies and small finance banks.
- The directions will be applicable to all loan sales, including sale of loans to special purpose entities for the purpose of securitisation.
- Highlights of the draft:
- Standard assets would be allowed to be sold by lenders through assignment, novation or a loan participation contract (either funded participation or risk participation).
- Stressed assets would be allowed to be sold only through assignment or novation only. They may be sold to any entity that is permitted to take on loan exposures by its statutory or regulatory framework.
- The draft lays down norms for sale of NPAs to Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) also buy back of NPAs in case the ARCs manage to turn them into standard assets.
- The draft also proposes to do away with the requirement of Minimum Retention Requirement (MRR) for sale of loans by lenders.
border adjustment tax (BAT)?
- BAT is a duty that is proposed to be imposed on imported goods in addition to the customs levy that gets charged at the port of entry.
- BAT is a fiscal measure that imposes a charge on goods or services in accordance with the destination principle of taxation.
- Generally, BAT seeks to promote “equal conditions of competition” for foreign and domestic companies supplying products or services within a taxing jurisdiction.
- NEED: The Indian industry has been complaining to the government about domestic taxes like electricity duty, duties on fuel, clean energy cess, mandi tax, royalties, biodiversity fees that get charged on domestically produced goods. But many imported goods do not get loaded with such levies in their respective country of origin and this gives such products price advantage in the Indian market.
Amendments to IBC in the wake of Corona Virus?
- GoI promulgated an ordinance to amend the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).
- ordinance suspends sections 7, 9 and 10 on grounds that:
- the pandemic has created uncertainty and stress for business for reasons beyond their control
- the nationwide lockdown has added to disruption of normal business operations
- in such circumstances it would be difficult to find adequate number of resolution applicants for a distressed/defaulting business
- Section 7, 9 and 10 of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 allow for insolvency filings by financial creditors, operational creditors and the corporate debtor itself.
- fresh insolvency proceedings will not be initiated for at least six months starting from March 25 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Default on repayments from March 25, the day when the nationwide lockdown began to curb COVID-19 infections, would not be considered for initiating insolvency the proceedings for at least six months.
- In March this year, the government raised the threshold for invoking insolvency under the IBC to Rs 1 crore from Rs 1 lakh with a view to prevent triggering of such proceedings against small and medium enterprises that are facing currently the heat of coronavirus pandemic.
FDI inflows in 2020-21? FII in 2020-21?
FDI: India attracted highest ever total FDI inflow of US$ 82 Bn in 2020-21, 10% higher than in 2019-20. This is despite global FDI inflows in 2020 declining by 42% over previous yr and inflows to developing countries faaling by 12%.
FII: 69-fold increase in the participation by FIIs, totalling U.S.$38 billion. This was the second highest level of FIIs’ involvement in India, after they invested U.S.$42 billion in 2014-15.
FDI in 2020-21: a cause for concern or joy?
In absolute terms India has seen higher than ever before increase in FDI despite a global slowdown in FDI. But,
- net of repatriation/disinvestment, FDI inflows had declined by 2.4% in 2020-21, as compared to the previous year. This was due to a 47.2% increase in repatriation/disinvestment, which had reached a record level of U.S.$27.0 Bn
- RBI: “Even though FDI inflows were stronger in 2020-21, their distribution was highly skewed. The coefficient of variation of FDI flows was larger during the pandemic period, implying concentration in distribution. The lower incidence of transactions points to the underlying weakness in FDI inflows during the year.” eg. 54% of total equity inflows was in Jio platform by companies like Facebook, Google etc.
- Most of this FDI is used for acquisition, thereby not creating any new asset in the country
- contrary to the Government’s expectations of a larger magnitude of inflows into the manufacturing sector, this sector received just 17.4% of the total inflows during 2020-21.
T/F: Merchandise export reached an all time quarterly low in Q1 of FY2021-22.
F
india’s merchandise exports reached an all-time quarterly high of $95 billion in the three months ended June
india’s merchandise exports reached an all-time quarterly high: more info?
- reached 95Bn$ in Q1 of FY 2021-22
- Even discounting the fact that the year-earlier period provided an anomalous base as the economy had just begun reopening from a protracted nationwide lockdown, growth in shipments was still a robust 30% when compared with the pre-pandemic June of 2019.
- Mian contributors for this surge: non-rice cereals, which quadrupled; iron ore, which more than doubled; and organic and inorganic chemicals that rose 62%. Engineering goods exports had the biggest jump in dollar terms
- however, data reveals that a significant driver of the export growth has been the runaway rally in commodity prices that have benefited from the accelerated reopening of major economies, as well as an increased appetite for raw materials and grains in China
- the crucial job-generating export sectors including readymade garments, leather and leather products and tea all posted double-digit declines from June 2019 levels, reflecting the deeper structural problems
role of cess levies in high fuel price and retail inflation?
- As of June 2021, taxes accounted for close to 58% of the price of petrol in Delhi.
- Between 2014 and 2021, Centre’s share of taxes on the retail price of petrol rose 216%, even though the base price of the fuel declined 24%.
- current high fuel prices reflect the higher cesses that have been imposed by the Centre since March 2020 and an increase in VAT rates by more than three-fourths of the SG
- effect on retail inflation: CPI has been persistently higher than the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% an deven reached 6.3% for May 2021. transport and communication category, which includes the automotive fuels of petrol and diesel and has a weight of 8.59% in the CPI
- causes
- developmental expenditure especially in pandemic times
- Centre needs ₹20,000 crore in the current financial year to service the interest and principal related to special oil bonds issued to OMCs in the period 2005-2010.
Need to reform the present structure of Independent Directors?
- Despite the growth of culture of independent directors in companies’ Board of Directors, independent directors are appointed just like other directors through shareholder voting by a simple majority, thereby conferring significant power in the hands of significant shareholders to handpick the independents.
- In case of family-owned companies, it is not uncommon to appoint “friendly” independent directors. As for public sector undertakings, an investigation by the newspaper IE reveals a demonstrable affiliation between independent directors and the ruling political dispensation of the day.
- SEBI in March 2021, in its ocnsultation paper conceded that even though an independent nomination and remuneration committee of the board screened candidates for independent directorships, the appointment was ultimately dominated by the promoters during shareholder voting.
- SEBI proposed a “dual approval” system :
- approval by a majority of all shareholders
- the approval of a “majority of the minority”, namely the approval of shareholders other than the promoters.
- In case of a failure to satisfy the two-step test, the company would be free to propose the same candidate after a 90-day cooling off period for approval by a special resolution (75 per cent majority) of all shareholders voting.
- SEBI recommended the same “dual approval” system for the removal of independent directors as well.
- SEBI drew inspiration from Israel and the premium-listed segment of the United Kingdom, which confers greater power to minority shareholders in installing or dethroning independent directors.
- Though SEBI backtracked its own proposal in June 2021
8 core sectors of India and their weightage in ‘Index of 8 core ind’?
contri of core sectors in IIP?
‘Index of 8 core ind’: by? period?
- Coal(10%), electricity(weightage 20%), cement(5%),steel(18%), fertiliser(3%), crude oil(9%), natural gas(7%) and refinery products(28%).
- 40%
- CSO;monthly
Growth in GST collections?
1) Average GST revenues for April-dec nw stands at >1Lcr, 4.3% higher than 96.7ThousandCr for same period last yr
2) state wiese break up for Gross GST revenue, released for the first time, showed avg growth of ~13% for non-special category states
3) Target of Gross GST revenue for FY 2019-20 is 11.89 Lcr, @avg of 99112cr per month
4) Central: state: IGST: cess= 20: 25:48:8
Govt’s falling revenues?
- Centre’s Gross tax revenues for Apr-Nov of FY19, grew by a mere 0.8% vs 18.3% growth predicted by the budget for the whole FY19
- On direct tax side, impact of Corporate Tax cut not yet known, Corp tax collections have contracted by 0.9% for Apr-Nov, against a target of 15.4% growth. Personal income tax hv also fared marginally batter
- Central GST collections (incl IGST half), stands at 3.72Lcr compared to full yr target of 5.26Lcr. That means that in the next 4 months, Centre’s GST collections will need to be 51000cr/month frm current 41000cr/month this Fiscal yr.
- disinvestment targets: target of 1.05Lcr, collections so far hv been only >17000cr.
‘mom-and-pop outlets’ or traditional grocery store/kirana stores: characterestics?
- contry has ~12 mn of them
- viability rests on 3 elements:
- low overheads: pre-dominantly family-run enterprises, nt paying rent on on their own little shopping premises and avoiding tax by dealing in cash
- maximum space utilisation: highest possible per sq foot sale and less on looks and appeal
- high inventory turnover and working capital rotation: real business of these stores come frm fast moving SKUs(Stock keeping units) like milk,curd, eggs, bread etc. With these items, even with a 3% margin, annual return worth more than 10 times is achieved on capital investm.
- symbiotic relation with cooperatives like Amul.
- In terms of avg ‘days inventory outstndg’- a measure of hw quickly stocks in its helves turn to cash- is abt 43 for Walmart, while ~5 days for traditional stores.
- Where kirana stores cannot compete is Scale and deep pockets.
Estimate of food subsidy in Union Budget?
Budget 2019-20 amde provision for Rs1.84Lcr, bt FCI uncleared dues worth Rs 1.86Lcr.
Fetiliser subsidy in budget?
- ~80000cr
- While Urea(N) is subsidised upto 75% of its cost, Phospshatic and Potasic fertilisers are subsidised only upto 25% of their cost.
India’s Fiscal deficit: SC Garg?
Former Economic Affairs Secretary S C Garg has stated that the true fiscal deficit for 2018-19 is 4.7% and predicted FD fr 2019-20 at 4.5-5% of GDP.
GoI, instead, maintains that FD is just 3.4% of GDP fr 2018-19 and fr 2019-20, expected FD at 3.3% of GDP
For long, it has been suspected that the official figures hide the true fiscal deficit. That’s because some of the government’s expenditure was funded by the so-called “off-budget” items.
What is the acceptable level of fiscal deficit??
- There is no set universal level of fiscal deficit that is considered good.
- Typically, for a developing economy, where private enterprises may be weak and governments may be in a better state to invest, fiscal deficit could be higher than in a developed economy.
- Here, governments also have to invest in both social and physical infrastructure upfront without having adequate avenues for raising revenues.
- In India, FRBM Act suggests bringing the fiscal deficit down to about 3 percent of the GDP is the ideal target
What is off- budget financing?
This refers to expenditure that’s not funded through the budget.
For example;
The government sets up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to construct a bridge.
The SPV will likely borrow money to build the bridge on the strength of a government guarantee. If it’s not a toll bridge, the SPV will need government support to meet interest obligations.
So, even though the borrowing and spending is outside the budget, it has implications for the budget and for all practical reasons should be included in that document.
Since it’s not, this doesn’t reflect on the fiscal deficit number as well.
cost is borne by the budget through some mechanism or the other. Such financing tends to hide the actual extent of government spending, borrowings and debt and increase the interest burden.