Economics Flashcards
Alpha
earning excess returns with specific strategies within an asset class
Capital Market Expectation Process
- determine needs
- look at historical performance
- identify valuation model
- collect data
- interpret current conditions and assign values to inputs
- formulate expectations
- monitor/ repeat
Capital Market Forecasts
- consistent
- unbiased
- objective
- well supported
- accurate
Return Estimate Methods
- arithmetic average: single period
- geometric average (multiply): multiple periods; dec dramatic shifts
- weighted average (shrinkage estimate): historical estimates
Gordon Growth Model
E(r) = D1/ P0 + g
Grinold-Kroner Model
Ri = D1/ P0 + i + g - ΔS + Δ(P/ E)
return = div yeild + inflation + growth in earnings - % change in shares outstanding + change in P/ E ratio
Discounted Cash Flow Assumptions
reinvest cash flows at the realized rate of return
Time Series Model
forecasts generated using previous values of a variable and previous values of other variables
- volatility clustering: variance will persist for periods of time
Risk Premium Approach
YTM = rf + risk premiums(s)
rbond = rf + inflation + default risk + liquidity + taxes + maturity premiums
reqty = LT gov bond yield + eqty risk premium
Sharpe Ratio
excess return per unit of risk
( Rm - Rf )/ σm
ERPm / σm
β
systematic risk, used to value equity and fixed income sec
ρi,m σi / σm
Covariance
covi,j = βi,1βj,1σF12 + βj,1βj,2σF22 + ( βi,1βj,1 + βj,1βj,2 )cov(F1, F2)
covi,j = β1 β2 σm2
CAPM
r = rf + β( rm - rf )
Financial Equilibrium Approach
ERP = ρi,m σi ( ERPm/ σm )
segmented ERP = weighted avg of fully segmented and integrated ERP + additional risk premiums
E(r) = ERP + rf
Inventory Cycle
- 2-4 years
- inv/ sales
- inc I/S b/c inc I = positive
- inc I/S b/c dec S = negative
- LR lower inv b/c better inventory management
Business Cycle
- 9-11 years
- phases
- initial recovery
- early upswing
- late upswing
- slowdown
- recession