Economic Environment of International Business Flashcards
(1) Two-Speed Recovery in Europe
- Europe has an economy that is characterized by a central core of countries (strong Germany)
- There are nations on the periphery of europe (greece, italy, spain, portugal, ireland), these nations have been suffering low growth and the prospects for enhanced growth are severely limited/constrained.
- Germany has the clout to change the economic and financial environment in europe
- Shows how different countries in the same area can operate at different economic levels
(1) Global two-speed recovery
- The economic growth in the world is emanating not from the old line players (western europe, north america, japan), but it is emanating from emerging nations such as brazil, china and mexico
- The emerging nations are leading the growth, the industrial nations can’t find a way to bring on this growth
(1) Balance of Payments Accounts (3)
- The Current Account
- The Capital and Financial Accounts
- The Reserve Account
(1) Current Account
- records (on a quarterly or annual basis) flows of exports, imports, investment income and international financial transfers
- “Credits” money that flows into Canada (ex to buy Canadian goods/services or to travel in Canada)
- “Debits” money that flows out of Canada (ex when Canadians import goods/services, when Canadinas travel abroad, when Canada pays interest or dividends to foreigners)
(1) Capital and Financial Accounts
- record (on a quarterly or annual basis) the flows of capital that move into or out of Canada within the period
- the difference between the value of foreign purchases of Canadian assets and Canadian purchases of foreign assets
- “Credits” when there is an inflow of capital to Canada (ex. an American buys a bond issues by a Canadian government)
- “Debits” when there is an outflow of Canadian capital (ex a Canadian buys a bond issued by a foreign government)
(1) Reserve Account
- Records changes in the amount of “official” foreign exchange reserves held by the Bank of Canada
- these changes tend to be very small relative to the total foreign exchange for commercial and international investment purposes
(1) Balance of Payments Identity
Balance of Payments MUST balance!
BCA + BKC + BRA = 0
BCA = Balance on Current Account
BKC = Balance on Capital and Financial Account
BRA = Balance on Reserves Account
Since BRA is so small, we must make sure that BCA = BKA
(1) Current Account in Canada
- In General: The value of our exports exceeds the value of our imports
- Total value of our merchandise trade exports (forest products, minerals, energy, etc) exceeds the value of our imported merchandise (electronics, clothing, foodstuff)
- Canadian Outflows of Investment Income Receipts and Investment Income Payments far exceeds the inflow of receipts from abroad –> Canadian industry is very capital intensive, and so we import capital to use.
(1) Exchange rate’s impact on the trade balance
- When the Can $ appreciates then Canadian-produced goods become more expensive in the export market –> so exports decrease
- When the Can $ appreciates, the stronger Canadian dollar makes imports cheaper
- As exports fall and imports rise the trade balance deteriorates
(1) Trade Balance
Exports minus Imports
(1) J-Curve effct
- J-Curve is a reaction pattern of the trade balance to currency depreciation.
- it depicts an initial deterioration and eventual improvement of the trade balance following currency depreciation
- since it takes time for the trade balance to adjust to a depreciation in currency, curve is observed
- after depreciation: some importers continue to import at high prices before finding alternative domestic sources, and exporters require time before they start exploiting the new opportunities in markets abroad
(1) Capital Account vs Financial Account
Capital Account - records a nation’s capital transfers and transactions in non-produced, non-financial assets (such as patents and copyrights)
- Financial Account records a nation’s international transactions in financial assets (such as bonds, loans or equities)
- There is generally much more activity in the Financial Account as opposed to the Capital Account and it is the more important of the two accounts
(1) Two Categories of Financial Assets recorded in the Capital & Financial Account
- Direct Investment- foreign direct investment is what multinational enterprises do - for example McCain setting up food processing plant in France with equity injections of $10 mil - the $10 mil is a debit in the Capital Account (BUT flow of earnings from that capital is recorded as investment income in Current Account)
- Portfolio Investment - Canadian purchases of shares of foreign companies, foreign purchases of shares in Canadian companies, Canadian purchases of foreign bonds and foreign purchases of Canadian bonds
(1) Dutch Disease
The relationship between the increase in exploitation of a natural resource and the decline in the manufacturing sector. As a country’s revenues increase from natural resources, their currency will become stronger, resulting in their exports becoming more expensive for other nations, thus making the manufacturing sector less competitive.
(2) Factor Price Ratio
Factor Price Ratio = Cost of 1 unit Labour / cost of 1 unit Capital = w/r
(2) with 1 country, 2 industries, what happens when the factor price ratio changes?
both industries will adjust to the new factor prices by employing more of the factor that has become relatively cheaper and less of the factor that has become relatively more expensive
(2) Production Possibilities Frontier
shows how much cloth and wheat (or two other products) can be produced simultaneously (given the country’s resources and technology) and how much cloth and how much wheat is produced given the country’s preferences for cloth and wheat in light of all production possibilities
(2) General equilibrium in the economy (1 country, 2 factors)
summarized at the point of tangency of the relative product price line (Pw/Pc) and the Production Possibilities Frontier
(2) Commodity Price Convergence
when you open up to trade with the world, the system moves to world prices. The good which is relatively more expensive will fall and the good which is relatively cheap will rise
(2) What happens when you open trade up internationally?
- The country with a comparative advantage in a product will increase production of that product and decrease production of their other product.
- They will export their comparative advantage product and import the other product
- The previously different (country-specific) commodity price ratios (Pw/Pc) will converge to a common Pw/Pc for world prices
(2) Trade Triangle
a diagrammatic construction to compare the production (and thus the factor usage) in one country before trade and after trade
(2) Driving forces of trade
to produce goods (and services) in the places where they can be produced most efficiently, and to sell (or direct) those goods to the places where they are valued most highly
(2) With Trade Liberalization there are…(3)
- Product prices converge to world prices
- Countries move towards industrial specialization, but not to full specialization
- Factor prices converge to the world factor price ratio
(2) What happens with trade liberalization and it’s effects on the factor price ratio?
- Production in one country shifts toward more labour-intensive production and less capital-intensive production
- Production in the other country shifts to less labour-intensive production and more capital-intensive production
- The country that shifts toward more labour-intensive production experiences an excess demand for labour and a rise in w/r (factor price ratio)
- The country that shifts toward more capital-intensive production experiences an excess supply of labour and a fall in w/r
- eventually a new world factor price ratio (w/r) comes to lie between the pre-liberalization w/r of the two individual countries
- this is factor price convergence
(2) Efficiency gains
when two countries open up to trade and each country does their specialization, then the world production of both goods expand and the world enjoys “efficiency gains”
(2) What happens when you increase supply of a factor? (ex technology improvement)
- The increased supply of a factor lowers the cost of that factor relative to the other factor
- in the country that experiences the increased supply: the industry that uses the increased factor intensively gains a relative cost advantage and it’s production increases. the industry that does not use the increased factor intensively suffers a relative cost disadvantage and it’s production decreases.
- The world price of the increased factor falls
- the world price of the product that uses the increased factor intensively falls
- trade increases
(2) Exports in Japan
- in Japan exports are a small percentage of GDP (13%)
- japan has been expanding its exports, but it’s reluctant to open its doors to imports
- Japan has been in a dark period since they are not open to immigration
- they have an aging economy that is causing it to have it’s own labour force shrink and it hasn’t found a way to collectively decide on how it’s going to open its doors to other sources of labour
- this is one of the reasons exports are so low in japan
(2) Importance of trade - big vs little countries
- in the US trade is a smaller percentage of GDP (11%) because the US is so large
- smaller countries rely on trade more and they are the most vulnerable
(2) Canada’s Trade with the US
- Canada is disproportionately engaged in trade with the US (72% of exports to US, and 62% of imports from US)
- this is down from what it used to be, because of the rise of asian economies
- these figures have shaped canada’s concern about international trade
(2) Why does Canada import energy?
we make tons of energy, but our energy does not go much further than Toronto, so the areas east of toronto (ie. Atlantic Canada) has to import oil
(2) Revealed Comparative Advantage
- We want to look at what sectors are growing (for exports) and how big a part they play in the total share in Canada
ex. Exports of crude petrolium is growing at 13% and the share in canada is 15%, so we have a comparatie advantage in it - we can see from the numbers what Canada is good at and what Canada is not so good at
- where we do not have a revealed comparative advantage we import
(2) World price
the price which a traded goods trade, net of any tariffs
-These are the proper prices to evaluate in the world of traded goods
(2) Production Possibilities Curve
- shows how a nation’s industry can shift from one production activity to another
- a nation can substitute a unit of wheat production for units of cloth production and vice versa
- the slope of the PPC is the marginal rate of technical substitution of wheat for cloth
(2) Comparative Advantage
- what a country is relatively more efficient at producing
- if each nation were to specialize in its comparative advantage and trade freely with others, then the world would get the most output from its limited resources
- market economies and free trade would naturally exploit comparative advantage
(2) Tariff
- a tax on an imported good
- the tariff-inclusive price of an imported good in the importing country is higher than the world price
- the domestic price of a good subject to a tariff increases to the “world price + tariff”
- domestic demand for a good subject to a tariff is less than it would otherwise be (because it’s more expensive now)
- domestic production of the good increases, but is less efficient than if the good was imported
- there is also loss of consumer surplus
- damage is also done on exporting countries of this good who now lose exports, jobs and profits