Economic Cycle Flashcards
Characteristics of a boom
High consumption High demand for capital goods High employment and real wages High demand for imports High tax revenue High inflationary pressure
Characteristics of recession
Rising unemployment Rising business failure Shortage of investment and profits Declining confidence Excess stock + heavy de-stocking
4 Recovery policies
Cut IR
high government borrowing
QE
Expand money supply
Causes of cycle
Speculative bubbles Changes in inventories Political motives External shocks Multiplier/accelerator effect
Speculative bubbles?
Spikes in asset prices caused by exaggerated expectations
Changes in inventories?
Demand growing below expectations can create excess stock causing firms to cut output below initial demand fall and prices to deflate
Political parties?
Can engineer a boom (1980 Lawson Boom created by low IR and ER)
External shocks?
Demand or supply side factor can have knock on effect
Multiplier/Accelerator?
Can lead to rapid recovery, speculation or changes in inventories
Demand side shocks
Household spending shocks Credit liquidity availability shocks Wealth shocks Investment spending shocks Government finance shocks (Iraq war) Export/import shock Policy shocks
Causes of growth
Technology/innovation
Specialisation + productivity increases
Increased labour force
Raw material discovery
Causes of decline
Resources run out
Low investment
Natural disaster
Erosion of infastructure
Government controls on growth
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Supply-side policy
Benefits of growth
Higher incomes Tax revenue Employment Less government borrowing Better public services Money spent on environment + correcting negative externalities
Consequences of growth
Inflation Current account deficit Environmental costs Boom bust cycles Inequalities