economic cycle Flashcards
macro objective for growth
growth to be strong sustain and sustainable. real gdp over time, upwards slope on graph
straight up sloping line on graph
it is the trend growth
curvy slopping line on graph
actual growth
what are the four different stages
boom, recession, trough, recovery
boom
peak on actual growth, when the growth is ramped. high profits, low unemployment, high consumer and business confidence, high demand, rising tax revenue, inflation
recession
two successive quarters of negative growth. declining AD, negative output gap, high unemployment, sharp falls in confidence and investment.
low consumer confidence, low demand for non essential products
low inflation
tax reduction, low gov spending
trough
lowest point on the actual growth after a recession. de-stocking and discounting, fall house prices and construction, lower inflation, low demand for imports
recovery
when the economic starts growing after a trough.
rising consumer confidence, rising business confidence, higher investment, increase in construction.
looser gov policies
decrease in unemployment
- increase in income
-
output gaps
when the actual growth is above the potential growth, negative positive.
what are shocks
unpredictable fluctuations in actual growth.
demand side shocks
shocks to aggregate demand. increase in interest rates, sudden cut gov spending, house market crash, financial banking crash all of which can cause a recession
supply side shocks
shocks to LRAS and SRAS, natural resource, increase in wages and resources and raw materials all of which can cause recession
diagram pic