Econ Flashcards
Value of Mark-to-Market Forward Contract
Vt = [(FPt - FP) * (contract size)] / [1+R (days/360)]
Covered Interest Arbitrage Formula
F = S0 * [1+Ra (days/360)] / [1+rb (days/360)]
Uncovered Interest Parity Formula
E(%ΔS)(a/b) = Ra - Rb
International Fisher Relation Formula
Ra - Rb = E(inflation A) - E(inflation B)
Relative PPP
%ΔS(a/b) = inflation (A) - inflation (B)
Real Exchange Rate (a/b) =
= equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rateB - real interest rateA) - (risk premiumB - risk premiumA)
Taylor Rule Formula
r = rN + a(π - π) + B(y - y)
Profit on Carry Trade =
Interest differential - change in the spot of investment currency
BOP Flow Mechanism
Current account deficit puts downward pressure on the exchange value of a country’s currency.
The decrease in the value of the currency may restore the current account deficit to balance depending on the initial deficit, the influence of exchange rates on exports and import prices, and the price elasticity of demand of traded goods.
BOP Portfolio Composition Mechanism
Investor countries with capital account deficits (and current account surpluses) may find their portfolios dominated by investments in countries persistently running capital account surpluses (and current account deficits).
If/when the investor countries rebalance their portfolios, the investee countries’ currencies may deprecate.
BOP Debt Sustainability Mechanism
A country running a current account deficit may be running a capital account surplus by borrowing from abroad.
When the level of debt gets too high relative to GDP, investors may question the sustainability of this level of debt, leading to a rapid depreciation of the borrower’s currency.
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Expansionary / Expansionary & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Uncertain / Depreciation
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Expansionary / Restrictive & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Depreciation / Uncertain
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Restrictive / Expansionary & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Appreciation / Uncertain
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Restrictive / Restrictive & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Uncertain / Apreciation
Pure Monetary Model
PPP holds at any point in time and therefore, an expansionary monetary policy results in an increase in inflation and a depreciation of the home currency.
Dornbusch Overshooting Model
A restrictive monetary policy leads to appreciation of the domestic currency in the short run and then a slow depreciation toward the LT PPP value.
Portfolio Balance Model (Asset Market Approach)
Focuses on the LT implications of sustained fiscal policy (deficit or surplus) on currency values.
When the govt. runs a fiscal deficit, it borrows money from investors and sustained deficits will lead to eventual depreciation of the home currency.
Warning signs of impending Currency Crisis
1) Terms of trade deteriorate
2) Official foreign exchange reserves dramatically decline
3) Real exchange rate is substantially higher than the mean-reverting level.
4) Inflation increases
5) Equity markets experience a boom-bust cycle
6) Money supply relative to bank reserves increases
7) Nominal private credit grows
Preconditions for Economic Growth (positive correlations)
1) Level of savings and investment
2) Developed financial markets and intermediaries
3) Political stability, rule of law, and property rights
4) Investment in human capital (education, HC, etc.)
5) Favorable tax and regulatory systems
6) Free trade and unrestricted capital flows
Capital Deepening
An increase in the capital stock and the capital-to-labor ratio. Due to diminishing marginal product of capital, increases in the capital stock can lead to only limited increases in output and labor productivity if hte capital-to-labor ratio is already high.
Growth Rate in Potential GDP
LT growth rate of technology + a(LT growth in K) + (1-a)(LT growth in L)
Classical Growth Theory:
Growth in real GDP/Capita is temporary - when it rises above the subsistence level, a population explosion occurs and GDP/Capita is driven back down to the persistence level.
Neoclassical Growth Theory:
The sustainable growth rate of an economy is a function of population growth, labor’s share of income, and the rate of technological development. Growth gains from other means, such as increased savings are only temporary.
Endogenous Growth Theory:
Acknowledges the impact of technological progress with ing the model. Investments in capital can have constant returns, unlike neoclassical theory which assumes diminishing returns to capital. This assumption allows of a permanent increase in growth rate attributable to an increase in savings rate. R&D expenditures are often cited as examples of capital investment that increase technological progress.
Statutes
Laws made by legislative bodies
Administrative regulations
Rules issued by govt. agencies or other bodies authorized by the govt.
Judicial law
Findings of courts