Econ Flashcards
Value of Mark-to-Market Forward Contract
Vt = [(FPt - FP) * (contract size)] / [1+R (days/360)]
Covered Interest Arbitrage Formula
F = S0 * [1+Ra (days/360)] / [1+rb (days/360)]
Uncovered Interest Parity Formula
E(%ΔS)(a/b) = Ra - Rb
International Fisher Relation Formula
Ra - Rb = E(inflation A) - E(inflation B)
Relative PPP
%ΔS(a/b) = inflation (A) - inflation (B)
Real Exchange Rate (a/b) =
= equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rateB - real interest rateA) - (risk premiumB - risk premiumA)
Taylor Rule Formula
r = rN + a(π - π) + B(y - y)
Profit on Carry Trade =
Interest differential - change in the spot of investment currency
BOP Flow Mechanism
Current account deficit puts downward pressure on the exchange value of a country’s currency.
The decrease in the value of the currency may restore the current account deficit to balance depending on the initial deficit, the influence of exchange rates on exports and import prices, and the price elasticity of demand of traded goods.
BOP Portfolio Composition Mechanism
Investor countries with capital account deficits (and current account surpluses) may find their portfolios dominated by investments in countries persistently running capital account surpluses (and current account deficits).
If/when the investor countries rebalance their portfolios, the investee countries’ currencies may deprecate.
BOP Debt Sustainability Mechanism
A country running a current account deficit may be running a capital account surplus by borrowing from abroad.
When the level of debt gets too high relative to GDP, investors may question the sustainability of this level of debt, leading to a rapid depreciation of the borrower’s currency.
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Expansionary / Expansionary & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Uncertain / Depreciation
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Expansionary / Restrictive & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Depreciation / Uncertain
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Restrictive / Expansionary & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Appreciation / Uncertain
Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Restrictive / Restrictive & Capital Mobility: High / Low –> Exchange Rates
Uncertain / Apreciation