Development Appraisals (L3C) Flashcards
What is viability?
Viability is defined in the PPG 010 as ‘Looking at whether the value generated by a development is more than the cost of developing it. This includes looking at the key elements of GDV, costs, land value, landowner premium and developer return.
- If FVA shows landowner and developer returns are not enough to satisfy the benchmarks, the development typology is unviable at the level of developer contributions being tested.
- Residual land value compared to benchmark
- Assess whether new use is more valuable than EUV
Name some key documents for development
- RICS Valuation of Development Property (1st ed, 2019) Guidance Note
- RICS Financial Viability in Planning: Conduct and Reporting (1st ed, May 2019) Professional Statement
- RICS Guidance Note: Assessing Viability in Planning under the NPPF 2019 for England (1st ed, March 2021)
What is the definition of Development Property?
The IVS defines development property as an “interest where redevelopment is required to obtain highest and best use or where improvements are being contemplated or in progress at the valuation date”.
What is the definition of Development?
“The carrying out of building, engineering, mining or other opportunity in, on, over or under land, or the making of any material change in the use of any building or other land”
In what instance would you use a development appraisal?
When need to calculate the profit of a client’s proposed development, or offer advice on a proposed development, or for viability purposes.
What is the difference between a residual valuation and a development appraisal?
A residual valuation = start with profit target, finding residual land value, based on market inputs to establish site value.
Development Appraisal = start with fixed land cost, working out the profit. Assessing the profitability of a scheme, based on client inputs and market assumptions
How is residual land value calculated?
GDV - (build costs and profit) = Residualised Land Value
What are the main costs in a residual valuation?
- Build costs
- Professional fees
- Statutory costs
- Marketing costs
- Legal costs
- Purchasers’ costs
- Agency fees
- Contingency
What is typically included in professional fees
- input as a % of construction costs
- Architect (usually highest proportion of fees)
- Quantity surveyor
- Structural engineer
- Mechanical/electrical engineer
- Project manager
- VAT is always payable on professional fees
What are the main components of a residual valuation?
- GDV
- Build cost
- Professional fees
- Statutory costs
- Marketing costs
- Legal costs
- Purchasers’ costs
- Agents fees
- Contingency
- Profit
- Residual land value
- Timescales
- Sensitivity analysis
What is the profit erosion?
The period within which the profit from the development is eroded after completion due to holding charges (i.e. interest charges, building insurance, security, utility charges)
What is IRR?
A time-weighted measure of return
- The annual rate of growth an investment is expected to generate
- The higher the IRR the better. If you wanted the improve the IRR, reduce timescales
- IRR for a small site - typically 30%
- The larger the site, the lower the IRR as far away from getting the money and being in a positive position.
What is an S-curve?
- Pattern of cash flow I assume the construction costs follow within Argus Appraisal
- Represents assumption of how costs are spread across the construction period, with the majority expected during the middle of the construction period
- Purpose = to reflect when monies will be spent
- The interest is expected to follow the same pattern across this period.
What are limitations of residual valuations?
- The use of assumptions, not real costs
- Assume 100% debt finance - not realistic
- Small changes to inputs can have a large impact on profit / residual land value
- RICS Guidance Note: Valuation of Development Property 2019: you should cross-check with the comparable method.
How would you determine build costs?
- Using BCIS all in tender indices
- BCIS uses GIA as basis of measurement, excludes VAT, contingency, fees, external works and facilitating works
- Consult a building surveyor to find an up-to-date estimate of costs.
How could I make build costs more specific using BCIS?
- Rebase to county instead of LPA
What are weaknesses of BCIS?
- Often taken from public sector development - reduced spec
- Need to account for exclusions within the data
- Offers guidance, but specific costs of a project can vary
- Larger housebuilders tend not to submit data, so costs are inflated
- Limited data
- Time lag
What is a sensitivity analysis and what are the different types?
- A risk analysis technique, used to present potential outcomes in changes to key variables
3 types:
- Simple sensitivity analysis of key variables i.e. sales values, construction costs (upwards and downwards increments)
- Scenario analysis: changes scenarios for the development content i.e. changing the phasing of the scheme or its design
- Monte Carlo simulation: using probability theory using software such as ‘Crystal Ball’
How are outputs shown from sensitivity analyses?
Effect on land value or profit amount
Where would you enter CIL/S106 costs into an appraisal?
- Statutory/LA section of Argus Developer. Also enter in accordance with CIL Liabiltiy notice (CIL typically paid at commencement of development) and S106 agreement (in line with triggers)
What length of warranty do new build properties typically have?
10 years
What is NHBC?
NHBC is the UK’s leading independent standard setting body and provider of warranty and insurance for new homes
Offers:
- First 2 years = defects insurance period i.e. faulty products
- Years 3-10 = structural insurance period
What assumption do you usually make for development finance?
It depends, but typically I put 6% debt finance into my appraisals. I assume 100% of finance will be debt finance and generate a general market facing finance rate to allow for comparison purposes and not accounting for developer-specific discounts
What are the main methods of finance?
- Debt finance - taking a loan
- Equity finance - selling shares, JV or own money