Demographics of aging. 02/04

Question 1

Define an ‘aging’ population

Answer 1

International convention says 65yr+ is old.

Aging population is one whose proportion of people over the age of 65 is increasing.

Question 2

Summarize current trends in population ageing

Answer 2

Africa remains at 7%
Europe and North America is at 21-27%
Scandinavia and Japan are at 28%
Asia is the fastest developing and fastest aging

Question 3

Summarize 2050 projections for population ageing

Answer 3

Some regions of Africa will reach 7-13 and 14-21%

Europe, North America and Asia will reach 28%

Question 4

What are the main causes of population ageing?

Answer 4

Declining fertility: most important for beginning of population ageing as rapidly decreases proportion of young people.
- contraception, changing religious views, changing of social structure
Increasing life expectancy: Medical care, sanitation
Migration: Can potentially change the age profile of a nation

Question 5

What shape population pyramids do rapidly expanding populations take?

Answer 5

Triangular, wide bottom. Lots of births, less deaths. Typical of a country in early stages of growth

Question 6

What shape population pyramids do stable/declining populations take?

Answer 6

Toblerone. Stable or slow growing populations such as U.S have birth rate of 2 children per mother (replacement rate). Decreasing populations such as Italy have birth rate < 2.

Question 7

What are some implications of ageing populations?

Answer 7

• Affordability of the welfare state
• Pensions. People forced to work longer
• Health and social care

Question 8

Define life expectancy

Answer 8

The age with 50% survival rate. England = 81.

Question 9

Why are people living longer

Answer 9

Agriculture, germ theory, sanitation, vaccines, antibiotics, treatment of CVD, cancer and reduction in respiratory disease

Question 10

What is the ‘rectangularization of the survival curve’

Answer 10

• more people are living longer and then rapidly dying off as they reach some biological maximum

Question 11

Arguments for a fixed maximum human life span

Answer 11

Average life span: practical upper limits at 85
Individual life span: Not many people live over 100
Hayflick limit of number of cell divisions

Question 12

Arguments against a fixed maximum human life span

Answer 12

Average life span: Mortality rates are improving at all ages. Mortality reductions do not grow smaller for subgroups closer to the limits (e.g. Older white women). Number centenarians increasing.
Individual life span: We are seeing increases in maximum age at death with no indication of slowing