Democratic Economy Flashcards
What is the spatial theory of elections?
There is a single dimension policy space and each voter has a unique most preferred point. Voters therefore select the party whose policy is closest to their own point
What are single peaked preferences?
Each person has an ideal choice and outcomes further from this point are preferred less.
X is between Y and the preference.
What are Euclidean preferences?
Proximity preferences, so whichever preference is closer in either direction
Using Euclidean preferences what can we assume about the outcome of elections?
If X is selected it was closer to more peoples preferred points. e.g Wins the median voter
Using single peaked assumptions what can we say about the Median voter theorem?
The median voter’s most-preferred point is
preferred by a majority to any other point y
What are some assumptions for basic median voter models?
- 2 parties with policy commitments
- The voter knows the policies
- Voter selected the party whose policy they prefer
What did Downs (1957) say about median voter theorem in relation to assumptions about each parties position?
- Parties want to win the election
- Parties don’t otherwise care for policy
- Parties are free to locate anywhere in the policy space
- Knows voters preferences/position of the median voter
Why if you add additional parties into the median voter model does it become problematic?
There will be a permanent disequilibrium as placing yourself at the median voter doesn’t guarantee an electoral win. Parties will shift around in search of winning position
Why does median voter model become problematic with multi issue voting?
Every point has a non empty win-set. There is no equilibrium. (Venn diagram)
Adams (2004) main conclusion?
That parties shift position only when the public opinion shifts away for their policy position
What did Adams (2004) examine?
Whether parties change policy/ideologies in response to public opinion or past election results
What did Adams (2004) conclude about the role of previous elections?
No significance to the results- no link between parties changing ideologies and past electoral results
What is the comparative manifesto project?
Examine the content of parties policy proposals (manifestos) and analyse their evolution over time.
What do spatial modellers (Downs 1957) assume?
That parties aim to maximise votes. The aim is a position that means no party can improve vote share by moving position, given the policies of their rivals
What does Budge tell us about parties ideologies?
The ideologies of the parties have a substantial amount of ‘temporal stability’ perhaps due to how they cannot forecast how this will affect them in the election
What do we term Adam’s (2004) conclusion?
Dynamics of disadvantaged parties
Suggestions of factors that could influence parties ideological position?
- Voting system/ Seat allocation
- Number of parties
- Policy preference of activists
- Past elections
- Public opinion
What is the name of the hypothesis Adam (2004) et al rejected?
General dynamic representation hypothesis (parties systematically shift in response to public opinion)
Reasons suggested for general dynamic representation being rejected?
- Party elites policy motivated
- Politicians misperceived public opinion
- Elections not won on policy but leaders and elections
What is the alternation model?
In built party dynamics that reward alternation (e.g. external conditions, internal dynamics, party activists)
What is party identification and what is its possible effect?
The parties cannot present the same policies, they need to be identifiable from the other parties. So may push away if the policies align too much with a rival party
What is Bartle (2011) paper examining?
The reasons behind the 2010 UK general election result swing
Quote on individuals and policies (Bartle)?
‘Individual voters know little about the details of politics and do not have coherent preferences’
Polly Toynbee quote on UK politics, voters wishes?
‘Scandinavian levels of welfare with US levels of taxation’
Bartle quote on individuals preferences for policy/randomness?
Changes in individual preferences may reflect random variation
What does Bartle describe as valency issues?
Honesty in government, corruption free, crime (e.g. no one argues against them- judge on who they prefer)
Bartle quote on motivations for parties?
‘Parties want to win elections’ but ‘parties have ideological or programmatic goals too’
Problems with surveys of public opinion?
Bias in the question/responses
-But constant bias if questions remain the same
What is a thermostatic effect with voters/parties?
Do parties change their policies in line with changes in voter behaviour/preferences
Bartle conclusion on policy mood effects on parties?
Clear change in policy mood does not have a law like relationship with vote share
What does Bartle suggest could shift the policy mood
If governments stick to expected UK roles (Conservatives small state etc) then the mood will move to the right under the Cons, and left under labour
What figure does Bartle use as average vote loss share for the government?
3 points per election
What does Bartle examine about the beliefs on the thermostatic effect?
Belief voters always want the opposite of government. Bartle uses graphs to show cyclical left to right shifts in public opinion, and that these shifts occur as opposite movements to whoever is in government.
