Democracy And Participation Flashcards
Background to US elections
While the Founding Fathers wanted the public to have control over their government, they feared that the uneducated masses would not make the right decisions. In the original Constitution they ensured that only the House of Representatives was directly elected by the people, with Senators being appointed by the state government. They created a presidential election in which they inserted a safety mechanism: voters would choose a small group of people who would decide who the president is. This is the system that is still in existence today. In the 1960s, another election was added (primaries and caucuses) in which the public select which candidate will represent a party at elections. This system is not part of the Constitution but has been created by internal party rules.
This means that the presidential elections, which do so much to determine the fate of America and the world, are - compared to most modern democracies - long and controversial.
Two stages of Presidential election races
Stage 1: PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES - Candidates from the same party compete against each other in a public vote. This decides who will represent the party as the presidential candidate.
Stage 2: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - One candidate from each party stands in order to get elected to the presidency.
This process is known as the electoral college.
What happens in primaries and caucuses?
In the first stage of voting, candidates from the same party compete in a public vote. The whole process is often referred to as ‘primaries’, even though some states use primary voting and some use caucus voting. There are two primaries: one Democratic and one Republican.
Rather than having a national contest, there are separate contests for each state. This is a public vote, but each voter can only vote in one party’s primary.
Candidates compete in a state to win delegates. Each state is given a number of delegates that broadly reflects its population. Delegates are party activists who agree to go to a party convention to vote for a specific candidate, according to how the voters in that state have voted.
In the 2016 Republican Party primaries, South Carolina had 50 delegates. Donald Trump received 33 per cent of the vote, beating Rubio (22 per cent), Cruz (22 per cent) and Bush (8 per cent). In doing so, Trump got 100 per cent of South Carolina’s delegates. As a result, all 50 delegates then pledged to vote for Trump when they attended a national meeting of delegates from all states. This meeting is known as the ‘national party convention’
Republican vs Democrat primaries system
• Republican primaries traditionally used a winner-takes-all system (the candidate who came first got all of the state’s delegates). Now some states use a proportional system (if a candidate gets 20 per cent of the vote, they get 20 per cent of the delegates).
• Democratic primaries award delegates to candidates in proportion to their vote totals in that state.
How are primaries won and differences in requirements? (Update)
Voters cast a secret ballot into a ballot box, making a single choice. For either party, the candidate with 50 per cent or more of all delegates becomes the official presidential candidate.
Different parties elect different totals over the whole campaign. To win in 2016, a Democrat required 2,383 and a Republican 1,237 delegates. In theory the delegates make the decision at the party convention at the end of the process. In practice, one person usually has more than 50 per cent, so therefore the winner is known before the convention.
Differences regarding dates of primaries (update)
Different states hold their primaries on different dates. In 2016 primaries began on 1 February, with 12 states holding votes on 1 March, six states on 7 June, and finishing on 14 June. Some states hold their primaries on the same day, with the largest collection of states all holding votes on what is known as Super Tuesday.
Case study: The curious case of Nevada, 2016
The Democratic Nevada caucus held votes in three stages, with only the last stage allocating delegates to the convention. Stage 1 allowed public voting in February, and Clinton beat Sanders with 52.6 per cent of the vote. A majority of delegates was allocated to Clinton. Only the delegates chosen for Sanders and Clinton are then allowed to vote in the next stage. This stage, Stage 2, was surprisingly won by Sanders, because many Clinton supporters failed to
Turn out. This vote determined who would attend the third stage, a state-wide convention in May. At Stage 3, Sanders was then expected to win, but the party took the rather bizarre step of changing the rules to disregard the second stage of voting. As the meeting started, with many delegates still queuing to get in, the chair took a voice vote on the change. Despite loud shouts on each side, he decertified 64 of Bernie Sanders’ delegates and denied them entry. As a result Clinton won and was given 20 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia;
Sanders took just 15,
Point about Obama unchallenged in 2012
In 2012 only one party held a national primary
as Obama was an
unchallenged incumbent, whereas in 2016 both parties held primaries. How does this affect the extent to which the primaries help or hinder democracy?
How would things operate differently depending on
whether a state was open or closed?
State voting rules types in primaries and caucuses (4)
Caucus states
Open primary states
Semi-closed primary states
Closed primary states
What are caucus states?
Caucus states hold a public meeting and a debate before voting (by standing in a particular group or raising hands). Here voting requires greater deliberation and effort. Turnout tends to be much lower. It can also attract more radical, active voters. lowa, Nevada, Colorado
What are open primary states?
Caucus states allow any voter to participate in either party’s primary - so a voter can choose on the day to vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary.
South Carolina, Alabama, Texas
What are semi-closed primary states?
Semi-closed primary states allow voters to participate in a party’s primary if they are registered as a supporter of that party or as an independent. New Hampshire, North Carolina, Rhode Island
What are closed primary states?
Closed primary states only allow registered supporters of a party to vote in that party’s primary.
Voters must tick a box when they register to say they support a particular party, often months ahead of voting. Independents cannot vote.
Louisiana, Florida, New York
Advantages of the primary caucus process (3)
RAISE KEY ISSUES:
-Successful policies of losing candidates can be adopted by winning candidates -Political education
-Competition between candidates tests different policies
-‘Ideas factory’ - more ideas than from just one candidate
VOTER CHOICE AND DEMOCRACY:
-Increased participation compared to a situation of no primary voting
-Choice of competing ideologies/ policies within party
-Choice by social characteristic, e.g. race or gender
-Especially true of open primary states
ELECTABILITY/PROVEN CANDIDATES:
-Tests ability to overcome deficiencies/ personal issues
-Proven candidate more likely to win the presidency
-Tests ability to raise funds
Invisible primary meaning
the period before the primaries take place, in which candidates attempt to establish their ability to be successful in the primaries. It is also sometimes called the ‘money primary’ as candidates spend most of their time raising money in an effort to show their political strength.
Disadvantages of the primary caucus process (3)
INTERNAL DIVIDES IN PARTIES:
-Exposes divisions within party
-Negative campaigning
common. even within party
-Can reduce popularity of winning candidate
-Especially problematic if only one party
has a primary
-People can lose faith in candidates
TIMING:
-Voting over an extended time
-Late states can be disenfranchised, rendering voting pointless
-Early states can influence late states
SPECIFIC PROCEDURES:
-Different rules for different states = randomness of process
-some states of dubious practices such as non-binding elections
-Creates a low turnout and excludes certain voters
What are invisible primaries?
Invisible primaries happen before primary voting when candidates campaign to establish themselves as viable candidates to win the primary race. Potential primary candidates try to gather support, gain recognition, raise funds and establish a core staff. This usually starts well before they announce their candidacy.
Why do invisible primary seasons get more intense as the first votes get closer?
The invisible primary season increases in intensity as the first primary vote, which takes place in lowa, gets closer. Candidates with high levels of funding and strong public support are likely to be viewed as potential winners, thus attracting more funding and support. This season usually leads to some candidates dropping out because they lack funding or public support. While no actual voting takes place, contestants try to establish themselves as the lead candidate in a specific faction, gaining loyalty from a key set of voters.
How can announcing a presidential bid early be an advantage?
Announcing a presidential bid early can enable the candidate to ‘capture’ the support of a party faction before another candidate has even declared. For the 2016 elections, Senator Ted Cruz was the first Republican candidate to declare, nine months before the first primary voting and a year and a half before the presidential election. Cruz gave a speech appealing to social conservative voters at an Evangelical college and was subsequently able to maintain this support, leaving previously popular Evangelical Republicans (such as Rick Santorum) with limited backing.
How can invisible primaries affect a candidate’s success? Examples
Invisible primaries can have a major effect on a candidate’s chances of success. As well as being a key period of fundraising, invisible primaries are when candidates can spend a great deal of money, mainly on publicity campaigns, adding to the financial burden of running for the presidency. The process is also significant because it provides an opportunity for lesser-known candidates to establish themselves as realistic challengers to perceived frontrunners. This was the case with Barack Obama in 2007, who used solid performances in pre-voting debates to establish himself as the main rival to Hillary Clinton. Clinton ‘won’ the invisible primaries, thanks to higher fundraising and greater popularity, but Obama’s ability to get close to her put him in a position to win the nomination. Sanders’s invisible primary performance in 2015 helped him to gain funding and support, allowing him to run a fairly close primary race against Clinton.
Case study: Republican invisible primaries, 2015
In 2015 the Republican invisible primaries contained a record number of candidates who had declared their intention to run. This included seven televised debates between the candidates before the first votes were cast in low. With 17 candidates the invisible primaries played an important role in narrowing the field with two governors, Rick Perry and Scott Walker, being forced to drop out. Walker, a one-time front-runner, announced his departure from the race in September 2015. His campaign team blamed a lack of media focus on his bid as well as a lack of funding. The invisible primaries could also be seen as the point at which Jeb Bush was effectively pushed out of the race. While Bush departed after the third primary contest in South Carolina, his lack of public support became apparent during the invisible primaries. Starting as a favourite to win, with name recognition, strong connections and a huge fundraising machine (in the first half of 2015 the Bush campaign raised a record-breaking $114 million, with Hillary Clinton being a distant second at $69 million and other Republican rivals well below that). Bush was eclipsed in terms of media focus and popularity with the entrance of Donald Trump into the race in June 2015, relatively late. With few commentators giving Trump any serious chance of winning, the Republican outsider soon took the lead in the polls at the same time that Bush experienced a serious decline in support.
What take place in between primaries and caucuses and the presidential election?
Party conventions
What are national party conventions?
National party conventions take place for each party in a presidential election year, usually lasting over three or four days. Modern conventions are attended by the delegates selected through the primary process. As such, they mark the end of the primary process and kickstart the presidential election campaign.
How has the role of party conventions changed?
With the creation of national primaries in 1968, the role of conventions has changed. Their role determining who wins the nomination and the party platform has now been lost mainly to the primary process itself.
Significant roles of party conventions (2)
- SELECT THE PRESIDENTIAL AND VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR THE PARTY:
Delegates vote to decide who is the presidential nominee. The rules of each party require that a candidate gains more than 50 per cent of delegates. If no candidate achieves this, a brokered convention takes place requiring more rounds of voting. - DECIDE THE POLICY PLATFORM:
Delegates debate and vote to determine the policy of the party (and therefore the candidate) for the presidential election. The convention takes place over several davs allowing for detailed policy debate.
Superficial roles of party conventions (3)
TO ACT AS PUBLICITY FOR THE CANDIDATE:
Conventions mark the start of the campaign and are a key part of the process. The winning candidate can sell their message to the public, often through attacks on the other party, stage-managed speeches by other politicians and endorsements by celebrities. The choice of state is also important: party conventions are ollen held in swing states.
TO REUNITE THE PARTY:
Conventions can be very important for parties after the divisive primary process. The battle between candidates from the same party can be put aside. Losing candidates often give speeches endorsing the winner. This can create positive publicity and help win the election.
TO RALLY PARTY ACTIVISTS:
Conventions are attended and watched by party activists who are crucial in helping a candidate win. They organise events, contact voters and raise funds.
A good convention will address these people, as well as the general public, to thank and enthuse them.
Republican National Convention 2016
July 18-21, Ohio (a state won by Trump)
Many prominent Republicans did not attend. Trump gained endorsements from some losing primary candidates, such as Chris Christie and Ben Carson, who spoke at the convention.
Melania Trump gave a speech, but was accused of plagiarising a speech by Michelle Obama.
Ted Cruz’s speech was perhaps the most remarkable as he used it to snub Trump. Rather than giving an endorsement, Cruz urged voters to ‘vote your conscience’.
The official party platform opposed gay marriage. However, Peter Thiel, PayPal’s co-founder, gave a speech on the importance of economic strategy, saying issues of who should use which bathroom should not dominate their thinking. He was the first Republican convention speaker to refer to his homosexuality.
Trump’s final-night speech appealed to his populist base, talking about immigration and his proposed wall at the Mexican border, terrorism and withdrawal from trade deals. He pledged to protect LGBT rights from a ‘hateful foreign ideology. Some pollsters reported a 3-4% bounce in ratings.
Final night broadcast audience: 34.9 million
Democratic National Convention 2016
July 25-28, Pennsylvania (a state won by Trump)
A united convention with progressives such as Warren and Sanders giving highly supportive speeches. Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton also gave speeches. Sanders* team was given a role in drafting the party platform.
Some Sanders supporters organised protests, accusing the DNC of bias against Sanders in both the primaries and planning of
the convention
The convention made use of music stars including Paul Simon, Alicia Keys, Katy Perry and Lady Gaga.
A rule change was adopted to reduce the role of
‘superdelegates’. The Sanders team wanted superdelegates to be bound to public voting, but a compromise meant that about two-thirds of superdelegates are bound to stale results.
Clinton’s final-night speech focused on her experience, judgement and compassion based on experience. Clinton prioritised job creation, appealing to Trump’s key demographic support, as well as climate change and college affordability. She also attacked ‘little men’ like Trump.
Final night broadcast audience: 33.7 million
Democratic National Convention 2020
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Republican National Convention 2020
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Constitutional role of Electoral College
Article ll of the Constitution outlines the need for the president to be elected every four years wing an electoral college, with the electorate in all states voting on the same day. The Founding fathers feared popular sovereignty, so they created the electoral college to act as a filter or check in public opinion.
How does the Electoral College work?
Each state has a value of electoral college votes (ECV) based on the number of Congresspersons plus the number of Senators (in other words, +2) for that state. In addition, the 23rd amendment gives Washington DC three ECV.
•Candidates compete on a state-by-state basis, with the winner receiving all the electoral college votes in that state.
All states use a winner-lakes-all system (even though the Constitution lets states decide how to allocate ECV).
• To win the presidency a candidate requires more than 50 per cent of ECV: 270 of the 538 votes available.
“ The ECV is not simply a points-based system. In each state, the ECV number represents the number of delegates (or electors) who are selected.
The system is based on a respect for the principle of federalism, with voting taking place in each state and smaller states being protected. as they are over-represented by the allocation
of ECV.
Differences between Electoral College rules in different states
larger states have a larger number of delegates, although this is not proportional to population.
The Constitution says that the value of each state is equal to the number of Congresspersons plus the number of Senators.
The 538 delegates who make up the electoral college vote to decide who the president will be.
Most states require their delegates to vote according to state opinion, but 21 states make no
such requirement.
Maine and Nebraska use a winner-takes-all system, but two of their ECV are allocated to the dinner of the whole state, and further ECV are awarded to the winner in each district within
the state.
What happens if no candidate wins an absolute majority of electoral votes?
• If no candidate wins an absolute majority of electoral votes, the Constitution states that it is up to the House of Representatives to choose the president. Each state receives one vote. Therefore the representatives of each state must first decide between themselves who they support, and then they would vote as one. Thus, the winner would require an absolute majority of 26 or more out of the 50 votes.
• If no candidate wins an absolute majority of electoral votes, the vice president is chosen by the Senate. Each Senator gets one vote, and an absolute majority is necessary: 50 per cent +1 vote.
•Only twice in the history of the country has a candidate not received an absolute majority of electoral votes: in 1800 and in 1824
Electoral college votes and popular vote of Biden vs Trump 2020
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‘Rogue’ or ‘faithless’ electors
Examples (update)
There are 21 states with no requirement that the electors follow public voting, so some delegates occasionally vote contrary to the wishes of the people. This has happened in the majority of elections since 1960, although it has never changed a result. In 2016 there were seven rogue delegates. Clinton lost five delegates who should have voted for her; three of those votes went to Colin Powell, a Republican politician, while Bernie Sanders and Faith Spotted Eagle - a Native American activist - received one each.
Party system meaning
the number of parties that have a realistic chance of forming government within a political system.
Case for US being a two-party system (update)
A party system refers to the number of parties that have a realistic chance of forming a government within a political system. It is easy to argue that the United States is a two-party system, but there has been much debate about the extent to which each partv works as a collective unit. Parties are so weak, it is argued, that they are not key actors within the political system.
The two-party system can easily be seen in the dominance of the Democratic and Republican Parties at all levels. All modern presidents have been Democrats or Republicans, and third parties typically have no seats in Congress. The 2016 elections were entirely dominated by two parties - there are only two parties in Congress; there are no third-party governors. Despite declaring himself to be an Independent, Sanders stood as a Democrat in the 2016 presidential primaries, caucused with Democrats in Congress, attended Democrat meetings and worked with Democrat leaders.
